ABSTRACT
Modern and paleoclimate changes may have altered species dynamics by shifting species' niche suitability over space and time. We analyze whether the current genetic structure and isolation of the two large American felids, jaguar (Panthera onca) and puma (Puma concolor), are mediated by changes in climatic suitability and connection routes over modern and paleoclimatic landscapes. We estimate species distribution under 5 climatic landscapes (modern, Holocene, last maximum glaciations [LMG], average suitability, and climatic instability) and correlate them with individuals' genetic isolation through causal modeling on a resemblance matrix. Both species exhibit genetic isolation patterns correlated with LMG climatic suitability, suggesting that these areas may have worked as "allele refuges." However, the jaguar showed higher vulnerability to climate changes, responding to modern climatic suitability and connection routes, whereas the puma showed a continuous and gradual transition of genetic variation. Despite differential responsiveness to climate change, both species are subjected to the climatic effects on genetic configuration, which may make them susceptible to future climatic changes, since these are progressing faster and with higher intensity than changes in the paleoclimate. Thus, the effects of climatic changes should be considered in the design of conservation strategies to ensure evolutionary and demographic processes mediated by gene flow for both species.
