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1.
Med Intensiva (Engl Ed) ; 47(9): 501-515, 2023 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37076405

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To design a mortality indicator in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in the intensive care unit (ICU). DESIGN: A multicenter, observational descriptive study was carried out. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with ACS admitted to the ICUs included in the ARIAM-SEMICYUC registry between January 2013 and April 2019. INTERVENTIONS: None. MAIN VARIABLES OF INTEREST: Demographic parameters, time of access to the healthcare system, and clinical condition. Revascularization therapy, drugs and mortality were analyzed. Cox regression analysis was performed, followed by the design of a neural network. A receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was plotted to calculate the power of the new score. Lastly, the clinical utility or relevance of the ARIAM indicator (ARIAM's) was assessed using a Fagan test. RESULTS: A total of 17,258 patients were included in the study, with a mortality rate of 3.5% (n = 605) at discharge from the ICU. The variables showing statistical significance (P < .001) were entered into the supervised predictive model, an artificial neural network. The new ARIAM's yielded a mean of 0.0257 (95%CI: 0.0245-0.0267) in patients discharged from the ICU versus 0.27085 (95%CI: 0.2533-0.2886) in those who died (P < .001). The area under the ROC curve of the model was 0.918 (95%CI: 0.907-0.930). Based on the Fagan test, the ARIAM's showed the mortality risk to be 19% (95%CI: 18%-20%) when positive and 0.9% (95%CI: 0.8%-1.01%) when negative. CONCLUSIONS: A new mortality indicator for ACS in the ICU can be established that is more accurate and reproducible, and periodically updated.


Subject(s)
Acute Coronary Syndrome , Humans , Hospital Mortality , Intensive Care Units , Hospitalization , Patient Discharge
2.
Rev. esp. enferm. dig ; 110(12): 782-793, dic. 2018. tab, graf
Article in Spanish | IBECS | ID: ibc-177928

ABSTRACT

Introducción: existen diversos indicadores para la valoración de la supervivencia del injerto hepático (DRI americano y ET-DRI europeo, entre otros), pero existen diferencias importantes entre los programas de trasplante de los diferentes países y podría ser que dichos indicadores no sean válidos en nuestro medio. Objetivos: el objetivo de este estudio es describir un nuevo indicador nacional de riesgo del injerto hepático a partir de los resultados del Registro Español de Trasplante Hepático (RETH) y validar el DRI y el ET-DRI. Metodología: el RETH incluye un análisis de Cox de los factores relacionados con la supervivencia del injerto. En base a sus resultados se define el indicador graft risk index (GRI). Las variables que contempla dependen del proceso de donación: edad, causa de muerte, compatibilidad sanguínea y tiempo de isquemia fría; y del receptor: edad, enfermedad de base, virus C, número de trasplante, estado UNOS y técnica quirúrgica. Se obtuvo la curva de la regresión logística y se calcularon las curvas de supervivencia del injerto por estratificación. La precisión se evaluó mediante el área ROC. Resultados: un GRI de 1 se corresponde con una probabilidad de pérdida del injerto del 23,25%; cada punto de aumento del GRI supone que la probabilidad se multiplica por 1,33. El GRI mostró la mejor discriminación por estratificación. El área ROC del DRI fue 0,54 (95% IC, 0,50-0,59) y del ET-DRI, 0,56 (95% IC, 0,51-0,61), frente al GRI 0,70 (95% IC, 0,65-0,73) (p < 0,0001). Conclusiones: el DRI y el ET-DRI no parecen útiles en nuestro medio y sería necesario disponer de un indicador propio. El GRI requiere un estudio nacional que perfile más el indicador y realice una validación más amplia


Introduction: several indicators are available to assess liver graft survival, including the American DRI and the European ET-DRI. However, there are significant differences between transplant programs of different countries, and the previously mentioned indicators might be not valid in our setting. Objectives: the aim of the study was to describe a new national liver graft risk indicator based on the results obtained from the Registro Español de Trasplante Hepático (RETH) and to validate the DRI and ET-DRI indicators. Methods: the RETH includes a Cox analysis of factors associated with graft survival; the graft risk index (GRI) indicator was defined based on these results. The variables considered are dependent upon the donation conditions (age, cause of death, blood compatibility and cold ischemia time) and the transplant recipient (age, underlying disease, hepatitis C virus, transplant number, UNOS status and surgical technique). A logistic regression curve was obtained and graft survival curves were calculated by stratification. Precision was assessed using the ROC analysis. Results: a GRI of 1 represents a probability of graft loss of 23.25%; each point increase in the GRI score multiplies this probability by 1.33. The best discrimination of GRI was obtained by stratification. The DRI ROC area was 0.54 (95% CI, 0.50-0.59) and the ET-DRI ROC area was 0.56 (95% CI, 0.51-0.61), compared to 0.70 (95% CI, 0.65-0.73) (p < 0.0001) for the GRI. Conclusions: both the DRI and ET-DRI do not seem to be useful in our setting. Hence a national indicator is more desirable. The GRI requires a national study in order to further streamline and assess this indicator


Subject(s)
Humans , Male , Female , Adult , Middle Aged , Aged , Liver Transplantation/statistics & numerical data , Graft Survival , Indicators of Morbidity and Mortality , Biomarkers/analysis , Risk Adjustment/statistics & numerical data , Medical Records/statistics & numerical data
3.
Rev Esp Enferm Dig ; 110(12): 782-793, 2018 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30338692

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: several indicators are available to assess liver graft survival, including the American DRI and the European ET-DRI. However, there are significant differences between transplant programs of different countries, and the previously mentioned indicators might be not valid in our setting. OBJECTIVES: the aim of the study was to describe a new national liver graft risk indicator based on the results obtained from the Registro Español de Trasplante Hepático (RETH) and to validate the DRI and ET-DRI indicators. METHODS: the RETH includes a Cox analysis of factors associated with graft survival; the graft risk index (GRI) indicator was defined based on these results. The variables considered are dependent upon the donation conditions (age, cause of death, blood compatibility and cold ischemia time) and the transplant recipient (age, underlying disease, hepatitis C virus, transplant number, UNOS status and surgical technique). A logistic regression curve was obtained and graft survival curves were calculated by stratification. Precision was assessed using the ROC analysis. RESULTS: a GRI of 1 represents a probability of graft loss of 23.25%; each point increase in the GRI score multiplies this probability by 1.33. The best discrimination of GRI was obtained by stratification. The DRI ROC area was 0.54 (95% CI, 0.50-0.59) and the ET-DRI ROC area was 0.56 (95% CI, 0.51-0.61), compared to 0.70 (95% CI, 0.65-0.73) (p < 0.0001) for the GRI. CONCLUSIONS: both the DRI and ET-DRI do not seem to be useful in our setting. Hence a national indicator is more desirable. The GRI requires a national study in order to further streamline and assess this indicator.


Subject(s)
Graft Survival , Liver Transplantation , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Registries , Risk Assessment , Spain , Young Adult
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