Spatial and temporal trends of dengue infections in Curaçao: A 21-year analysis.

Dengue viruses are a significant global health concern, causing millions of infections annually and putting approximately half of the world's population at risk, as reported by the World Health Organization (WHO). Understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of dengue virus spread is crucial for effective prevention of future outbreaks. By investigating these patterns, targeted dengue surveillance and control measures can be improved, aiding in the management of outbreaks in dengue-affected regions. Curaçao, where dengue is endemic, has experienced frequent outbreaks over the past 25 years. To examine the spatial and temporal trends of dengue outbreaks in Curaçao, this study employs an interdisciplinary and multi-method approach. Data on >6500 cases of dengue infections in Curaçao between the years 1995 and 2016 were used. Temporal and spatial statistics were applied. The Moran's I index identified the presence of spatial autocorrelation for incident locations, allowing us to reject the null hypothesis of spatial randomness. The majority of cases were recorded in highly populated areas and a relationship was observed between population density and dengue cases. Temporal analysis demonstrated that cases mostly occurred from October to January, during the rainy season. Lower average temperatures, higher precipitation and a lower sea surface temperature appear to be related to an increase in dengue cases. This effect has a direct link to La Niña episodes, which is the cooling phase of El Niño Southern Oscillation. The spatial and temporal analyses conducted in this study are fundamental to understanding the timing and locations of outbreaks, and ultimately improving dengue outbreak management.

The COVID HOME study research protocol: Prospective cohort study of non-hospitalised COVID-19 patients.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines on COVID-19 management are developed as we learn from this pandemic. However, most research has been done on hospitalised patients and the impact of the disease on non-hospitalised and their role in transmission are not yet well understood. The COVID HOME study conducts research among COVID-19 patients and their family members who were not hospitalised during acute disease, to guide patient care and inform public health guidelines for infection prevention and control in the community and household. METHODS: An ongoing prospective longitudinal observational study of COVID-19 outpatients was established in March 2020 at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands. Laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals of all ages that did not merit hospitalisation, and their household (HH) members, were enrolled after written informed consent. Enrolled participants were visited at home within 48 hours after initial diagnosis, and then weekly on days 7, 14 and 21 to obtain clinical data, a blood sample for biochemical parameters/cytokines and serological determination; and a nasopharyngeal/throat swab plus urine, stool and sperm or vaginal secretion (if consenting) to test for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR (viral shedding) and for viral culturing. Weekly nasopharyngeal/throat swabs and stool samples, plus a blood sample on days 0 and 21 were also taken from HH members to determine whether and when they became infected. All participants were invited to continue follow-up at 3-, 6-, 12- and 18-months post-infection to assess long-term sequelae and immunological status.

Investigating COVID-19 Vaccine Impact on the Risk of Hospitalisation through the Analysis of National Surveillance Data Collected in Belgium.

The national vaccination campaign against SARS-CoV-2 started in January 2021 in Belgium. In the present study, we aimed to use national hospitalisation surveillance data to investigate the recent evolution of vaccine impact on the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation. We analysed aggregated data from 27,608 COVID-19 patients hospitalised between October 2021 and February 2022, stratified by age category and vaccination status. For each period, vaccination status, and age group, we estimated risk ratios (RR) corresponding to the ratio between the probability of being hospitalised following SARS-CoV-2 infection if belonging to the vaccinated population and the same probability if belonging to the unvaccinated population. In October 2021, a relatively high RR was estimated for vaccinated people > 75 years old, possibly reflecting waning immunity within this group, which was vaccinated early in 2021 and invited to receive the booster vaccination at that time. In January 2022, a RR increase was observed in all age categories coinciding with the dominance of the Omicron variant. Despite the absence of control for factors like comorbidities, previous infections, or time since the last administered vaccine, we showed that such real-time aggregated data make it possible to approximate trends in vaccine impact over time.

First wave of COVID-19 in Venezuela: Epidemiological, clinical, and paraclinical characteristics of first cases.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has particularly affected countries with weakened health services in Latin America, where proper patient management could be a critical step to address the epidemic. In this study, we aimed to characterize and identify which epidemiological, clinical, and paraclinical risk factors defined COVID-19 infection from the first confirmed cases through the first epidemic wave in Venezuela. A retrospective analysis of consecutive suspected cases of COVID-19 admitted to a sentinel hospital was carried out, including 576 patient cases subsequently confirmed for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection. Of these, 162 (28.1%) patients met the definition criteria for severe/critical disease, and 414 (71.2%) were classified as mild/moderate disease. The mean age was 47 (SD 16) years, the majority of which were men (59.5%), and the most frequent comorbidity was arterial hypertension (23.3%). The most common symptoms included fever (88.7%), headache (65.6%), and dry cough (63.9%). Severe/critical disease affected mostly older males with low schooling (p < 0.001). Similarly, higher levels of glycemia, urea, aminotransferases, total bilirubin, lactate dehydrogenase, and erythrocyte sedimentation rate were observed in severe/critical disease patients compared to those with mild/moderate disease. Overall mortality was 7.6% (44/576), with 41.7% (28/68) dying in hospital. We identified risk factors related to COVID-19 infection, which could help healthcare providers take appropriate measures and prevent severe clinical outcomes. Our results suggest that the mortality registered by this disease in Venezuela during the first epidemic wave was underestimated. An increase in fatalities is expected to occur in the coming months unless measures that are more effective are implemented to mitigate the epidemic while the vaccination process is ongoing.

Mild Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Is Marked by Systemic Oxidative Stress: A Pilot Study.

Oxidative stress has been implicated to play a critical role in the pathophysiology of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and may therefore be considered as a relevant therapeutic target. Serum free thiols (R-SH, sulfhydryl groups) comprise a robust marker of systemic oxidative stress, since they are readily oxidized by reactive oxygen species (ROS). In this study, serum free thiol concentrations were measured in hospitalized and non-hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and healthy controls and their associations with relevant clinical parameters were examined. Serum free thiol concentrations were measured colorimetrically (Ellman's method) in 29 non-hospitalized COVID-19 subjects and 30 age-, sex-, and body-mass index (BMI)-matched healthy controls and analyzed for associations with clinical and biochemical disease parameters. Additional free thiol measurements were performed on seven serum samples from COVID-19 subjects who required hospitalization to examine their correlation with disease severity. Non-hospitalized subjects with COVID-19 had significantly lower concentrations of serum free thiols compared to healthy controls (p = 0.014), indicating oxidative stress. Serum free thiols were positively associated with albumin (St. ß = 0.710, p < 0.001) and inversely associated with CRP (St. ß = -0.434, p = 0.027), and showed significant discriminative ability to differentiate subjects with COVID-19 from healthy controls (AUC = 0.69, p = 0.011), which was slightly higher than the discriminative performance of CRP concentrations regarding COVID-19 diagnosis (AUC = 0.66, p = 0.042). This study concludes that systemic oxidative stress is increased in patients with COVID-19 compared with healthy controls. This opens an avenue of treatment options since free thiols are amenable to therapeutic modulation.

Signatures of the Venezuelan Humanitarian Crisis in the First Wave of COVID-19: Fuel Shortages and Border Migration.

Testing and isolation have been crucial for controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. Venezuela has one of the weakest testing infrastructures in Latin America and the low number of reported cases in the country has been attributed to substantial underreporting. However, the Venezuelan epidemic seems to have lagged behind other countries in the region, with most cases occurring within the capital region and four border states. Here, we describe the spatial epidemiology of COVID-19 in Venezuela and its relation to the population mobility, migration patterns, non-pharmaceutical interventions and fuel availability that impact population movement. Using a metapopulation model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, we explore how movement patterns could have driven the observed distribution of cases. Low within-country connectivity most likely delayed the onset of the epidemic in most states, except for those bordering Colombia and Brazil, where high immigration seeded outbreaks. NPIs slowed early epidemic growth and subsequent fuel shortages appeared to be responsible for limiting the spread of COVID-19 across the country.

Malaria in Southern Venezuela: The hottest hotspot in Latin America.

Malaria elimination in Latin America is becoming an elusive goal. Malaria cases reached a historical ~1 million in 2017 and 2018, with Venezuela contributing 53% and 51% of those cases, respectively. Historically, malaria incidence in southern Venezuela has accounted for most of the country's total number of cases. The efficient deployment of disease prevention measures and prediction of disease spread to new regions requires an in-depth understanding of spatial heterogeneity on malaria transmission dynamics. Herein, we characterized the spatial epidemiology of malaria in southern Venezuela from 2007 through 2017 and described the extent to which malaria distribution has changed country-wide over the recent years. We found that disease transmission was focal and more prevalent in the southeast region of southern Venezuela where two persistent hotspots of Plasmodium vivax (76%) and P. falciparum (18%) accounted for ~60% of the total number of cases. Such hotspots are linked to deforestation as a consequence of illegal gold mining activities. Incidence has increased nearly tenfold over the last decade, showing an explosive epidemic growth due to a significant lack of disease control programs. Our findings highlight the importance of spatially oriented interventions to contain the ongoing malaria epidemic in Venezuela. This work also provides baseline epidemiological data to assess cross-border malaria dynamics and advocates for innovative control efforts in the Latin American region.

Patients and Medical Staff Attitudes Toward the Future Inclusion of eHealth in Tuberculosis Management: Perspectives From Six Countries Evaluated using a Qualitative Framework.

BACKGROUND: Digitally delivering healthcare services is very attractive for tuberculosis (TB) management as this disease has a complex diagnosis and lengthy management and involves multiple medical and nonmedical specialists. Especially in low- and middle-income countries, eHealth could potentially offer cost-effective solutions to bridge financial, social, time, and distance challenges. OBJECTIVE: The goal of the research is to understand what would make eHealth globally applicable and gain insight into different TB situations, opportunities, and challenges. METHODS: We performed focus group interviews with TB experts and patients from 6 different countries on 4 different continents. The focus group interviews followed the theory of planned behavior framework to offer structured recommendations for a versatile eHealth solution. The focus group interviews were preceded by a general demographic and technology use questionnaire. Questionnaire results were analyzed using basic statistics in Excel (Microsoft Corporation). Focus group interview data were analyzed using ATLAS.ti 8 (ATLAS.ti Scientific Software Development GmbH) by assigning codes to quotations and grouping codes into the 5 domains within the framework. RESULTS: A total of 29 patients and 32 medical staff members were included in our study. All medical staff had used the internet, whereas 31% (9/61) of patients had never been online. The codes with the most quotations were information in relation to eHealth (144 quotations) and communication (67 quotations). The consensus among all participants from all countries is that there are important communication and information gaps that could be bridged by an eHealth app. Participants from different countries also highlighted different challenges, such as a majority of asylum-seeker patients or lack of infrastructure that could be addressed with an eHealth app. CONCLUSIONS: Within the 6 countries interviewed, there is high enthusiasm toward eHealth in TB. A potential app could first target information and communication gaps in TB, with additional modules aimed at setting-specific challenges.

Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil.

The first case of COVID-19 was detected in Brazil on 25 February 2020. We report and contextualize epidemiological, demographic and clinical findings for COVID-19 cases during the first 3 months of the epidemic. By 31 May 2020, 514,200 COVID-19 cases, including 29,314 deaths, had been reported in 75.3% (4,196 of 5,570) of municipalities across all five administrative regions of Brazil. The R0 value for Brazil was estimated at 3.1 (95% Bayesian credible interval = 2.4-5.5), with a higher median but overlapping credible intervals compared with some other seriously affected countries. A positive association between higher per-capita income and COVID-19 diagnosis was identified. Furthermore, the severe acute respiratory infection cases with unknown aetiology were associated with lower per-capita income. Co-circulation of six respiratory viruses was detected but at very low levels. These findings provide a comprehensive description of the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil and may help to guide subsequent measures to control virus transmission.

Spatial Dynamics of Chikungunya Virus, Venezuela, 2014.

Since chikungunya virus emerged in the Caribbean region in late 2013, ≈45 countries have experienced chikungunya outbreaks. We described and quantified the spatial and temporal events after the introduction and propagation of chikungunya into an immunologically naive population from the urban north-central region of Venezuela during 2014. The epidemic curve (n = 810 cases) unraveled within 5 months with a basic reproductive number of 3.7 and a radial spread traveled distance of 9.4 km at a mean velocity of 82.9 m/day. The highest disease diffusion speed occurred during the first 90 days, and space and space-time modeling suggest the epidemic followed a particular geographic pathway with spatiotemporal aggregation. The directionality and heterogeneity of transmission during the first introduction of chikungunya indicated existence of areas of diffusion and elevated risk for disease and highlight the importance of epidemic preparedness. This information will help in managing future threats of new or reemerging arboviruses.

Venezuela's humanitarian crisis, resurgence of vector-borne diseases, and implications for spillover in the region.

In the past 5-10 years, Venezuela has faced a severe economic crisis, precipitated by political instability and declining oil revenue. Public health provision has been affected particularly. In this Review, we assess the impact of Venezuela's health-care crisis on vector-borne diseases, and the spillover into neighbouring countries. Between 2000 and 2015, Venezuela witnessed a 359% increase in malaria cases, followed by a 71% increase in 2017 (411 586 cases) compared with 2016 (240 613). Neighbouring countries, such as Brazil, have reported an escalating trend of imported malaria cases from Venezuela, from 1538 in 2014 to 3129 in 2017. In Venezuela, active Chagas disease transmission has been reported, with seroprevalence in children (<10 years), estimated to be as high as 12·5% in one community tested (n=64). Dengue incidence increased by more than four times between 1990 and 2016. The estimated incidence of chikungunya during its epidemic peak is 6975 cases per 100 000 people and that of Zika virus is 2057 cases per 100 000 people. The re-emergence of many vector-borne diseases represents a public health crisis in Venezuela and has the possibility of severely undermining regional disease elimination efforts. National, regional, and global authorities must take action to address these worsening epidemics and prevent their expansion beyond Venezuelan borders.

Applied shotgun metagenomics approach for the genetic characterization of dengue viruses.

Dengue virus (DENV), an arthropod-borne virus, has rapidly spread in recent years. DENV diagnosis is performed through virus serology, isolation or molecular detection, while genotyping is usually done through Sanger sequencing of the envelope gene. This study aimed to optimize the use of shotgun metagenomics and subsequent bioinformatics analysis to detect and type DENV directly from clinical samples without targeted amplification. Additionally, presence of DENV quasispecies (intra-host variation) was revealed by detecting single nucleotide variants. Viral RNA was isolated with or without DNase-I treatment from 17 DENV (1-4) positive blood samples. cDNA libraries were generated using either a combination of the NEBNext® RNA to synthesize cDNA followed by Nextera XT DNA library preparation, or the TruSeq RNA V2 (TS) library preparation kit. Libraries were sequenced using both the MiSeq and NextSeq. Bioinformatic analysis showed complete ORFs for all samples by all approaches, but longer contigs and higher sequencing depths were obtained with the TS kit. No differences were observed between MiSeq and NextSeq sequencing. Detection of multiple DENV serotypes in a single sample was feasible. Finally, results were obtained within three days with associated reagents costs between €130-170/sample. Therefore, shotgun metagenomics is suitable for identification and typing of DENV in a clinical setting.

Dengue Virus IgM Serotyping by ELISA with Recombinant Mutant Envelope Proteins.

We developed an IgM-based ELISA that identifies the dengue virus serotype of recent infections. Dominant serotypes were detectable in 91.1% of samples from travelers and 86.5% of samples from residents of endemic regions; 97.1% corresponded to the serotype identified by PCR. This ELISA enables more accurate reporting of epidemiologic findings.

Complete Coding Sequences of Five Dengue Virus Type 2 Clinical Isolates from Venezuela Obtained through Shotgun Metagenomics.

Dengue is a disease endemic in Latin American countries, like Venezuela, and has become one of the most important public health problems. We report five complete coding sequences of dengue virus serotype 2 (DENV-2) isolated from DENV-infected patients in Venezuela. Phylogenetic analysis placed the isolates within the American/Asian genotype.

Knowledge, Attitudes, and Preventive Practices Regarding Dengue in Maracay, Venezuela.

Dengue, a viral mosquito-borne disease currently affects more than 2.5 billion people living in endemic areas worldwide. In vector control, social mobilization and community behavioral changes are of crucial importance. Here, we identified the factors influencing community dengue preventive practices in a high-transmission urban area in Venezuela. Between September 2013 and February 2014, a cross-sectional study at the household level was carried out in Maracay city, Venezuela. A precoded questionnaire was used to obtain information on people's knowledge, attitudes, and use of preventive practices in relation to dengue. Concomitantly, entomological data was collected from households. In 80% of the 105 included households, 1-5 preventive practices (e.g., repellents, insecticides) against mosquito bites were used. However, 57% of the examined houses had potential Aedes breeding sites indoors and/or outdoors, most of which positive for Aedes spp. larvae/pupae. Preventive practices were associated with a previous dengue infection (P = 0.030) and a better knowledge on dengue symptoms and transmission route (P = 0.020). In turn, knowledge was associated with feeling at risk (P < 0.001), a previous dengue infection (P = 0.010), and reported exposure to information sources of dengue (P = 0.011). Even though the knowledge level of the community over transmission ways was high, and most of the individuals took measures to avoid mosquito bites, potential mosquito breeding sites were present in almost two-thirds of the examined properties. Health promotion activities in Venezuela should aim at raising awareness at the community level on the importance of combining mosquito bite prevention with removal of breeding sites in and around the households.

Spatial Analysis of Dengue Seroprevalence and Modeling of Transmission Risk Factors in a Dengue Hyperendemic City of Venezuela.

BACKGROUND: Dengue virus (DENV) transmission is spatially heterogeneous. Hence, to stratify dengue prevalence in space may be an efficacious strategy to target surveillance and control efforts in a cost-effective manner particularly in Venezuela where dengue is hyperendemic and public health resources are scarce. Here, we determine hot spots of dengue seroprevalence and the risk factors associated with these clusters using local spatial statistics and a regression modeling approach. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: From August 2010 to January 2011, a community-based cross-sectional study of 2012 individuals in 840 households was performed in high incidence neighborhoods of a dengue hyperendemic city in Venezuela. Local spatial statistics conducted at household- and block-level identified clusters of recent dengue seroprevalence (39 hot spot households and 9 hot spot blocks) in all neighborhoods. However, no clusters were found for past dengue seroprevalence. Clustering of infection was detected at a very small scale (20-110m) suggesting a high disease focal aggregation. Factors associated with living in a hot spot household were occupation (being a domestic worker/housewife (P = 0.002), lower socio-economic status (living in a shack (P<0.001), sharing a household with <7 people (P = 0.004), promoting potential vector breeding sites (storing water in containers (P = 0.024), having litter outdoors (P = 0.002) and mosquito preventive measures (such as using repellent, P = 0.011). Similarly, low socio-economic status (living in crowded conditions, P<0.001), having an occupation of domestic worker/housewife (P = 0.012) and not using certain preventive measures against mosquitoes (P<0.05) were directly associated with living in a hot spot block. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings contribute to a better comprehension of the spatial dynamics of dengue by assessing the relationship between disease clusters and their risk factors. These results can inform health authorities in the design of surveillance and control activities. Focalizing dengue control measures during epidemic and inter-epidemic periods to disease high risk zones at household and neighborhood-level may significantly reduce virus transmission in comparison to random interventions.