Predicting unsafe driving risk among commercial truck drivers using machine learning: Lessons learned from the surveillance of 20 million driving miles.

The emergence of sensor-based Internet of Things (IoT) monitoring technologies have paved the way for conducting large-scale naturalistic driving studies, where continuous kinematic driver-based data are generated, capturing crash/near-crash safety critical events (SCEs) and their precursors. However, it is unknown whether the SCEs risk can be predicted to inform driver decisions in the medium term (e.g., hours ahead) since the literature has focused on SCE predictions either for a given road segment or for automated breaking applications, i.e., immediately before the event. In this paper, we examine the SCE data generated from 20+ million miles-driven by 496 commercial truck drivers to address three main questions. First, whether SCEs can be predicted using disparate driving-related data sources. Second, if so, what the relative importance of the different predictors examined is. Third, whether the prediction models can be generalized to new drivers and future time periods. We show that SCEs can be predicted 30 min in advance, using machine learning techniques and dependent variables capturing the driver's characteristics, weather conditions, and day/time categories, where an area under the curve (AUC) up to 76% can be achieved. Moreover, the predictive performance remains relatively stable when tested on new (i.e., not in the training set) drivers and a future two-month time period. Our results can inform dispatching and routing applications, and lead to the development of technological interventions to improve driver safety.

A Review of Data Analytic Applications in Road Traffic Safety. Part 2: Prescriptive Modeling.

In the first part of the review, we observed that there exists a significant gap between the predictive and prescriptive models pertaining to crash risk prediction and minimization, respectively. In this part, we review and categorize the optimization/ prescriptive analytic models that focus on minimizing crash risk. Although the majority of works in this segment of the literature are related to the hazardous materials (hazmat) trucking problems, we show that (with some exceptions) many can also be utilized in non-hazmat scenarios. In an effort to highlight the effect of crash risk prediction model on the accumulated risk obtained from the prescriptive model, we present a simulated example where we utilize four risk indicators (obtained from logistic regression, Poisson regression, XGBoost, and neural network) in the k-shortest path algorithm. From our example, we demonstrate two major designed takeaways: (a) the shortest path may not always result in the lowest crash risk, and (b) a similarity in overall predictive performance may not always translate to similar outcomes from the prescriptive models. Based on the review and example, we highlight several avenues for future research.

A Review of Data Analytic Applications in Road Traffic Safety. Part 1: Descriptive and Predictive Modeling.

This part of the review aims to reduce the start-up burden of data collection and descriptive analytics for statistical modeling and route optimization of risk associated with motor vehicles. From a data-driven bibliometric analysis, we show that the literature is divided into two disparate research streams: (a) predictive or explanatory models that attempt to understand and quantify crash risk based on different driving conditions, and (b) optimization techniques that focus on minimizing crash risk through route/path-selection and rest-break scheduling. Translation of research outcomes between these two streams is limited. To overcome this issue, we present publicly available high-quality data sources (different study designs, outcome variables, and predictor variables) and descriptive analytic techniques (data summarization, visualization, and dimension reduction) that can be used to achieve safer-routing and provide code to facilitate data collection/exploration by practitioners/researchers. Then, we review the statistical and machine learning models used for crash risk modeling. We show that (near) real-time crash risk is rarely considered, which might explain why the optimization models (reviewed in Part 2) have not capitalized on the research outcomes from the first stream.

Job rotation and work-related musculoskeletal disorders: a fatigue-failure perspective.

Job rotation is an organisational strategy that can be used, in part, to reduce occupational exposure to physical risk factors associated with work-related musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs). Recent studies, however, suggest that job rotation schedules may increase the overall risk of injury to workers included in the rotation scheme. We describe a novel optimisation framework evaluating the effectiveness of a job rotation scheme using the fatigue failure model of MSD development and a case study with real injury data. Results suggest that the effect of job rotation is highly-dependent on the composition of the job pool, and inclusion of jobs with higher risk results in a drastic decrease in the effectiveness of rotation for reducing overall worker risk. The study highlights that in cases when high-risk jobs are present, job redesign of those high risk tasks should be the primary focus of intervention efforts rather than job rotation. Practitioner summary: Job rotation is often used in industry as a method to 'balance' physical demands experienced by workers to reduce musculoskeletal disorder (MSD) risk. This article examines the efficacy of reducing MSDs through job rotation using numerical simulation of job rotation strategies and utilising the fatigue failure model of MSD development.