Preoperative and operative predictors of delayed neurologic deficit following repair of thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysm.

PURPOSE: Delayed neurologic deficit has been recognized in recent years as a source of morbidity following thoracic and thoracoabdominal aortic repair. We wanted to find risk factors specifically significant for delayed neurologic deficit. In this initial study we looked at preoperative and operative risk factors. METHODS: We performed 854 thoracoabdominal aortic repairs between February 1991 and May 2001. For this study we excluded 26 patients who died before postoperative neurologic status could be evaluated and 38 who had immediate neurologic deficit on initial postoperative evaluation, leaving 790 consecutive patients. We evaluated a wide range of demographic, preoperative physiological and intraoperative data, using univariate and multivariable statistical analyses. RESULTS: Twenty-one of 790 (2.7%) patients had delayed neurologic deficit. Significant univariate predictors included preoperative renal dysfunction (odds ratio 5.9; P <.006), acute dissection (odds ratio 3.9; P <.05), extent II thoracoabdominal aorta (odds ratio 3.0; P <.03), and use of adjuncts (cerebrospinal fluid drainage and distal aortic perfusion; odds ratio 7.7; P <.03). The use of the adjuncts dropped from the multivariable model but all other factors remained. No other significant risk factors were identified. Twelve of 21 (57%) patients recovered neurologic function with optimization of blood pressure and cerebrospinal fluid drainage. CONCLUSION: Preoperative renal dysfunction, acute dissection, and extent II thoracoabdominal aorta are significant predictors of delayed neurologic deficit. Previous studies have demonstrated that the use of adjuncts protects against immediate neurologic deficit. The findings of this study are consistent with the hypothesis that adjuncts reduce ischemic insult enough to prevent immediate neurologic deficit but that a period of increased spinal cord vulnerability persists several days postoperatively.

Cardiac function predicts mortality following thoracoabdominal and descending thoracic aortic aneurysm repair.

OBJECTIVE: Previous studies have identified age, renal failure and aneurysm extent as predictors of mortality following thoracoabdominal and descending thoracic aortic aneurysm (TAA) repair. We studied the impact of coronary artery disease (CAD) and cardiac function on 30-day mortality following TAA repair. METHODS: Between February 1991 and May 2001, we performed 854 TAA repairs. Two hundred ninety-one patients (34%) had a history of coronary artery disease. One hundred forty-one/291 (49%) had undergone coronary artery bypass surgery (CAB) prior to TAA repair. We conducted multivariable analyses of known risk factors along with the left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) and prior CAB to determine the adjusted effect of CAD on outcome. RESULTS: Mortality in patients with CAD was 54/291 (18%) compared to 75/563 (13%) without CAD (P<0.05). In patients who had prior CAB, mortality was 31/141 (22%) compared to 98/713 (14%) patients without prior CAB, (P<0.02). In multivariable analysis, the effects of CAD and CAB on mortality were eliminated by consideration of a low EF (defined as less than 50%). CONCLUSION: Impaired left ventricular function appears to be the strongest cardiac predictor of mortality for TAA repair, independent of the presence of coronary artery disease or coronary artery bypass revascularization.

Analysis of short-term multivariate competing risks data following thoracic and thoracoabdominal aortic repair.

OBJECTIVE: Estimating the overall successfulness of a treatment can be difficult when success is defined by freedom from multiple endpoints that are each subject to competing risks. We describe a method for modeling short-term competing outcomes. METHODS: We used polytomous categorical variable modeling to describe the 30-day onset of renal failure, neurologic deficit, stroke or death (events) following repair of 841 thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysms. This was to determine whether common risk factors had a multivariate association with these outcomes, and whether predictor variables might be positively associated with some outcomes and negatively associated with others. The goal was to determine whether a single aggregate-endpoint logistic model could accurately predict the probability of good outcome 30 days following surgery. RESULTS: When more than one event occurred in a single patient, the first (or most severe simultaneous) event was used for censoring. Five hundred and ninety-three out of 841 (70.5%) patients had no postoperative events. The most common event was renal failure. We detected five predictors that were significant for at least one of the four outcomes. These were age, poor preoperative renal function (RENAL), acute dissection, extent II aneurysm, and use of cerebrospinal fluid drainage and distal aortic perfusion (ADJUNCT). Only RENAL was significant for all outcomes. ADJUNCT was highly significant only for neurologic deficit in the polytomous analysis and dropped out of the aggregate-endpoint multiple logistic model. CONCLUSION: Polytomous-outcome multivariate categorical modeling can detect effects missed by aggregate models, and is a valuable and statistically powerful method for evaluating risk factor effects on multiple competing endpoints.