Time-averaging and nonergodicity of reset geometric Brownian motion with drift.

How do near-bankruptcy events in the past affect the dynamics of stock-market prices in the future? Specifically, what are the long-time properties of a time-local exponential growth of stock-market prices under the influence of stochastically occurring economic crashes? Here, we derive the ensemble- and time-averaged properties of the respective "economic" or geometric Brownian motion (GBM) with a nonzero drift exposed to a Poissonian constant-rate price-restarting process of "resetting." We examine-based both on thorough analytical calculations and on findings from systematic stochastic computer simulations-the general situation of reset GBM with a nonzero [positive] drift and for all special cases emerging for varying parameters of drift, volatility, and reset rate in the model. We derive and summarize all short- and long-time dependencies for the mean-squared displacement (MSD), the variance, and the mean time-averaged MSD (TAMSD) of the process of Poisson-reset GBM under the conditions of both rare and frequent resetting. We consider three main regions of model parameters and categorize the crossovers between different functional behaviors of the statistical quantifiers of this process. The analytical relations are fully supported by the results of computer simulations. In particular, we obtain that Poisson-reset GBM is a nonergodic stochastic process, with generally MSD(Δ)≠TAMSD(Δ) and Variance(Δ)≠TAMSD(Δ) at short lag times Δ and for long trajectory lengths T. We investigate the behavior of the ergodicity-breaking parameter in each of the three regions of parameters and examine its dependence on the rate of reset at Δ/T≪1. Applications of these theoretical results to the analysis of prices of reset-containing options are pertinent.

Nonergodicity of reset geometric Brownian motion.

We derive. the ensemble- and time-averaged mean-squared displacements (MSD, TAMSD) for Poisson-reset geometric Brownian motion (GBM), in agreement with simulations. We find MSD and TAMSD saturation for frequent resetting, quantify the spread of TAMSDs via the ergodicity-breaking parameter and compute distributions of prices. General MSD-TAMSD nonequivalence proves reset GBM nonergodic.

Scaled geometric Brownian motion features sub- or superexponential ensemble-averaged, but linear time-averaged mean-squared displacements.

Various mathematical Black-Scholes-Merton-like models of option pricing employ the paradigmatic stochastic process of geometric Brownian motion (GBM). The innate property of such models and of real stock-market prices is the roughly exponential growth of prices with time [on average, in crisis-free times]. We here explore the ensemble- and time averages of a multiplicative-noise stochastic process with power-law-like time-dependent volatility, σ(t)∼t^{α}, named scaled GBM (SGBM). For SGBM, the mean-squared displacement (MSD) computed for an ensemble of statistically equivalent trajectories can grow faster than exponentially in time, while the time-averaged MSD (TAMSD)-based on a sliding-window averaging along a single trajectory-is always linear at short lag times Δ. The proportionality factor between these the two averages of the time series is Δ/T at short lag times, where T is the trajectory length, similarly to GBM. This discrepancy of the scaling relations and pronounced nonequivalence of the MSD and TAMSD at Δ/T≪1 is a manifestation of weak ergodicity breaking for standard GBM and for SGBM with σ(t)-modulation, the main focus of our analysis. The analytical predictions for the MSD and mean TAMSD for SGBM are in quantitative agreement with the results of stochastic computer simulations.