External validation of the Almelo Hip Fracture Score, a prediction model for early mortality following hip fracture surgery.

PURPOSE: Early mortality (< 30 days) in hip fracture patients is as high as 9.6%. Several risk assessment tools have been developed to identify patients at high risk for early mortality. Among them, the Almelo Hip Fracture Score (AHFS) was developed recently and showed promising results. Until now, this tool has not been validated; therefore, we aim to perform an external validation of the AHFS. METHODS: On admission, AHFS variables were prospectively collected. The prospectively collected data were used retrospectively to externally validate the AHFS in a cohort of hip fracture patients that were admitted to a hospital in Delft (Delft cohort). The AHFS score was retrospectively calculated for all hip fracture patients meeting the inclusion criteria. The characteristics of the Delft Cohort, AHFS score, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and area under the curve were calculated and compared to the original Almelo cohort, in which the AHFS was developed. RESULTS: 422 patients of 70 years and older were included. Mortality within 30 days was 7.6% and similar to the 7.5% observed in the Almelo cohort. For the high-risk cut-off point, specificity was 95.4% in the Delft Cohort vs. 92.5% in the Almelo Cohort, and sensitivity for the low-risk cut-off point was 75.9 vs. 78.1% in the Almelo Cohort. The area under the ROC curve was 0.70 (95% CI 0.60-0.79) compared to 0.82 in the Almelo cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The validity of the score was acceptable and comparable to the values in the Almelo cohort. This score might be used to identify patients at high risk for early mortality.

Predicting discharge location of hip fracture patients; the new discharge of hip fracture patients score.

PURPOSE: This paper reports on the development and validity of a new instrument, called the discharge of hip fracture patients score (DHP), that predicts at admission the discharge location in patients living in their own home prior to hip fracture surgery. METHODS: A total of 310 patients aged 50 years and above were included. Risk factors for discharge to an alternative location (DAL) were analysed with a multivariable regression analysis taking the admission variables into account with different weights based on the estimates. The score ranged from 0-100 points. The cut-off point for DAL was calculated using a ROC analysis. Reliability of the DHP was evaluated. RESULTS: Risk factors for DAL were higher age, female gender, dementia, absence of a partner and a limited level of mobility. The cut-off point was set at 30 points, with a sensitivity of 83.8%, a specificity of 64.7% and positive predictive value of 79.2%. CONCLUSION: The DHP is a valid, simple and short instrument to be used at admission to predict discharge location of hip fracture patients.