eCerto-versatile software for interlaboratory data evaluation and documentation during reference material production.

The statistical tool eCerto was developed for the evaluation of measurement data to assign property values and associated uncertainties of reference materials. The analysis is based on collaborative studies of expert laboratories and was implemented using the R software environment. Emphasis was put on comparability of eCerto with SoftCRM, a statistical tool based on the certification strategy of the former Community Bureau of Reference. Additionally, special attention was directed towards easy usability from data collection through processing, archiving, and reporting. While the effects of outlier removal can be flexibly explored, eCerto always retains the original data set and any manipulation such as outlier removal is (graphically and tabularly) documented adequately in the report. As a major reference materials producer, the Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und -prüfung (BAM) developed and will maintain a tool to meet the needs of modern data processing, documentation requirements, and emerging fields of RM activity. The main features of eCerto are discussed using previously certified reference materials.

Less extreme and earlier outbursts of ice-dammed lakes since 1900.

Episodic failures of ice-dammed lakes have produced some of the largest floods in history, with disastrous consequences for communities in high mountains1-7. Yet, estimating changes in the activity of ice-dam failures through time remains controversial because of inconsistent regional flood databases. Here, by collating 1,569 ice-dam failures in six major mountain regions, we systematically assess trends in peak discharge, volume, annual timing and source elevation between 1900 and 2021. We show that extreme peak flows and volumes (10 per cent highest) have declined by about an order of magnitude over this period in five of the six regions, whereas median flood discharges have fallen less or have remained unchanged. Ice-dam floods worldwide today originate at higher elevations and happen about six weeks earlier in the year than in 1900. Individual ice-dammed lakes with repeated outbursts show similar negative trends in magnitude and earlier occurrence, although with only moderate correlation to glacier thinning8. We anticipate that ice dams will continue to fail in the near future, even as glaciers thin and recede. Yet widespread deglaciation, projected for nearly all regions by the end of the twenty-first century9, may bring most outburst activity to a halt.

Integrated assessment of short-term direct and indirect economic flood impacts including uncertainty quantification.

Understanding and quantifying total economic impacts of flood events is essential for flood risk management and adaptation planning. Yet, detailed estimations of joint direct and indirect flood-induced economic impacts are rare. In this study an innovative modeling procedure for the joint assessment of short-term direct and indirect economic flood impacts is introduced. The procedure is applied to 19 economic sectors in eight federal states of Germany after the flood events in 2013. The assessment of the direct economic impacts is object-based and considers uncertainties associated with the hazard, the exposed objects and their vulnerability. The direct economic impacts are then coupled to a supply-side Input-Output-Model to estimate the indirect economic impacts. The procedure provides distributions of direct and indirect economic impacts which capture the associated uncertainties. The distributions of the direct economic impacts in the federal states are plausible when compared to reported values. The ratio between indirect and direct economic impacts shows that the sectors Manufacturing, Financial and Insurance activities suffered the most from indirect economic impacts. These ratios also indicate that indirect economic impacts can be almost as high as direct economic impacts. They differ strongly between the economic sectors indicating that the application of a single factor as a proxy for the indirect impacts of all economic sectors is not appropriate.

Rare flash floods and debris flows in southern Germany.

Flash floods and debris flows are iconic hazards in mountainous regions with steep relief, high rainfall intensities, rapid snowmelt events, and abundant sediments. The cuesta landscapes of southern Germany hardly come to mind when dealing with such hazards. A series of heavy rainstorms dumping up to 140 mm in 2 h caused destructive flash floods and debris flows in May 2016. The most severe damage occurred in the Braunsbach municipality, which was partly buried by 42,000 m3 of boulders, gravel, mud, and anthropogenic debris from the small catchment of Orlacher Bach (~6 km2). We analysed this event by combining rainfall patterns, geological conditions, and geomorphic impacts to estimate an average sediment yield of 14,000 t/km2 that mostly (~95%) came from some 50 riparian landslides and channel-bed incision of ~2 m. This specific sediment yield ranks among the top 20% globally, while the intensity-duration curve of the rainstorm is similarly in the upper percentile range of storms that had triggered landslides. Compared to similar-sized catchments in the greater region hit by the rainstorms, we find that the Orlacher Bach is above the 95th percentile in terms of steepness, storm-rainfall intensity, and topographic curvatures. The flash flood transported a sediment volume equal to as much as 20-40% of the Pleistocene sediment volume stored in the Orlacher Bach fan, and may have had several predecessors in the Holocene. River control structures from 1903 and records of a debris flow in the 1920s in a nearby catchment indicate that the local inhabitants may have been aware of the debris-flow hazards earlier. Such recurring and destructive events elude flood-hazard appraisals in humid landscapes of gentle relief, and broaden mechanistic views of how landslides and debris flows contribute to shaping small and deeply cut tributaries in the southern Germany cuesta landscape.

The value of 18F-FDG-PET/CT in identifying the cause of fever of unknown origin (FUO) and inflammation of unknown origin (IUO): data from a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Fever of unknown origin (FUO) and inflammation of unknown origin (IUO) are diagnostically challenging conditions. Diagnosis of underlying disease may be improved by 18F-fluorodesoxyglucose positron emission tomography (18F-FDG-PET). METHODS: Prospective study to test diagnostic utility of 18F-FDG-PET/CT in a large cohort of patients with FUO or IUO and to define parameters that increase the likelihood of diagnostic 18F-FDG-PET/CT. Patients with FUO or IUO received 18F-FDG-PET/CT scanning in addition to standard diagnostic work-up. 18F-FDG-PET/CT results were classified as helpful or non-helpful in establishing final diagnosis. Binary logistic regression was used to identify clinical parameters associated with a diagnostic 18F-FDG-PET/CT. RESULTS: 240 patients were enrolled, 72 with FUO, 142 with IUO and 26 had FUO or IUO previously (exFUO/IUO). Diagnosis was established in 190 patients (79.2%). The leading diagnoses were adult-onset Still's disease (15.3%) in the FUO group, large vessel vasculitis (21.1%) and polymyalgia rheumatica (18.3%) in the IUO group and IgG4-related disease (15.4%) in the exFUO/IUO group. In 136 patients (56.7% of all patients and 71.6% of patients with a diagnosis), 18F-FDG-PET/CT was positive and helpful in finding the diagnosis. Predictive markers for a diagnostic 18F-FDG-PET/CT were age over 50 years (p=0.019), C-reactive protein (CRP) level over 30 mg/L (p=0.002) and absence of fever (p=0.001). CONCLUSION: 18F-FDG-PET/CT scanning is helpful in ascertaining the correct diagnosis in more than 50% of the cases presenting with FUO and IUO. Absence of intermittent fever, higher age and elevated CRP level increase the likelihood for a diagnostic 18F-FDG-PET/CT.