Long-term forest monitoring reveals constant mortality rise in European forests.

European forests are an important source for timber production, human welfare, income, protection and biodiversity. During the last two decades, Europe has experienced a number of droughts which have been exceptional within the last 500 years, both in terms of duration and intensity. These droughts seem to leave remarkable imprints on the mortality dynamics of European forests. However, systematic observations on tree decline, with emphasis on a single species, has been scarce so far so that our understanding of mortality dynamics and drought occurrence is still limited at a continental scale. Here, we make use of the ICP Forest crown defoliation dataset, permitting us to retrospectively monitor tree mortality for all major conifers, major broadleaves, as well as a pooled dataset of minor tree species in Europe. In total, we analysed more than three million observations gathered during the last 25 years and employed a high-resolution drought index which can assess soil moisture anomaly based on a hydrological water-balance and runoff model. We found overall and species-specific increasing trends in mortality rates, accompanied by decreasing soil moisture. A generalized linear mixed model identified a previous-year soil moisture anomaly as the most important driver of mortality patterns in conifers, but the response was not uniform across the numerous analysed plots. We conclude that mortality patterns in European forests are currently reaching a concerning upward trend which could be further accelerated by global change-type droughts in the near future.

Why predict climate hazards if we need to understand impacts? Putting humans back into the drought equation.

Virtually all climate monitoring and forecasting efforts concentrate on hazards rather than on impacts, while the latter are a priority for planning emergency activities and for the evaluation of mitigation strategies. Effective disaster risk management strategies need to consider the prevailing "human terrain" to predict who is at risk and how communities will be affected. There has been little effort to align the spatiotemporal granularity of socioeconomic assessments with the granularity of weather or climate monitoring. The lack of a high-resolution socioeconomic baseline leaves methodical approaches like machine learning virtually untapped for pattern recognition of extreme climate impacts on livelihood conditions. While the request for "better" socioeconomic data is not new, we highlight the need to collect and analyze environmental and socioeconomic data together and discuss novel strategies for coordinated data collection via mobile technologies from a drought risk management perspective. A better temporal, spatial, and contextual understanding of socioeconomic impacts of extreme climate conditions will help to establish complex causal pathways and quantitative proof about climate-attributable livelihood impacts. Such considerations are particularly important in the context of the latest big data-driven initiatives, such as the World Bank's Famine Action Mechanism (FAM).

Harmonization of GEOV2 fAPAR time series through MODIS data for global drought monitoring.

The temporal consistency of the fAPAR GEOV2 full time series (constituted by data derived from SPOT-VGT1/2 and PROBA-V) is analyzed against the single-sensor MODIS dataset, with a particular focus on the most recent fAPAR anomalies (z-scores) produced from PROBA-V in the period 2014-2017. The intercomparison highlights a systematic overestimation of GEOV2 fAPAR z-scores when compared to MODIS fAPAR, likely related to the observed positive bias (over 90% of the domain) in the PROBA-V vs. SPOT-VGT1/2 relationship. A simple two-step harmonization procedure has been proposed to remove this discrepancy, based on two separate linear corrections of SPOT-VGT1/2 (2001-2013) and PROBA-V (2014-2017) data with respect to MODIS, followed by a time lag correction. The harmonized GEOV2 time series preserves the overall dynamic of fAPAR, while removing the sensor bias and improving the consistency with MODIS data. The fAPAR anomalies from the harmonized GEOV2 time series provide unbiased estimates of z-scores that are overall well correlated (R = 0.55 ± 0.25) with the MODIS fAPAR anomalies.