Integration of population genetics with oceanographic models reveals strong connectivity among coral reefs across Seychelles.

Many countries with tropical reef systems face hard choices preserving coral reefs in the face of climate change on limited budgets. One approach to maximising regional reef resilience is targeting management efforts and resources at reefs that export large numbers of larvae to other reefs. However, this requires reef connectivity to be quantified. To map coral connectivity in the Seychelles reef system we carried out a population genomic study of the Porites lutea species complex using 241 sequenced colonies from multiple islands. To identify oceanographic drivers of this connectivity and quantify variability, we further used a 2 km resolution regional ocean simulation coupled with a larval dispersal model to predict the flow of coral larvae between reef sites. Patterns of admixture and gene flow are broadly supported by model predictions, but the realised connectivity is greater than that predicted from model simulations. Both methods detected a biogeographic dispersal barrier between the Inner and Outer Islands of Seychelles. However, this barrier is permeable and substantial larval transport is possible across Seychelles, particularly for one of two putative species found in our genomic study. The broad agreement between predicted connectivity and observed genetic patterns supports the use of such larval dispersal simulations in reef system management in Seychelles and the wider region.

Global warming and arctic terns: Estimating climate change impacts on the world's longest migration.

Climate change is one of the top three global threats to seabirds, particularly species that visit polar regions. Arctic terns migrate between both polar regions annually and rely on productive marine areas to forage, on sea ice for rest and foraging, and prevailing winds during flight. Here, we report 21st-century trends in environmental variables affecting arctic terns at key locations along their Atlantic/Indian Ocean migratory flyway during the non-breeding seasons, identified through tracking data. End-of-century climate change projections were derived from Earth System Models and multi-model means calculated in two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: 'middle-of-the-road' and 'fossil-fuelled development' scenarios. Declines in North Atlantic primary production emerge as a major impact to arctic terns likely to affect their foraging during the 21st century under a 'fossil-fuelled development' scenario. Minimal changes are, however, projected at three other key regions visited by arctic terns (Benguela Upwelling, Subantarctic Indian Ocean and the Southern Ocean). Southern Ocean sea ice extent is likely to decline, but the magnitude of change and potential impacts on tern survival are uncertain. Small changes (<1 m s-1 ) in winds are projected in both scenarios, but with minimal likely impacts on migration routes and duration. However, Southern Ocean westerlies are likely to strengthen and contract closer to the continent, which may require arctic terns to shift routes or flight strategies. Overall, we find minor effects of climate change on the migration of arctic terns, with the exception of poorer foraging in the North Atlantic. However, given that arctic terns travel over huge spatial scales and live for decades, they integrate minor changes in conditions along their migration routes such that the sum effect may be greater than the parts. Meeting carbon emission targets is vital to slow these end-of-century climatic changes and minimise extinction risk for a suite of polar species.

Sources of marine debris for Seychelles and other remote islands in the western Indian Ocean.

Vast quantities of debris are beaching at remote islands in the western Indian Ocean. We carry out marine dispersal simulations incorporating currents, waves, winds, beaching, and sinking, for both terrestrial and marine sources of debris, to predict where this debris comes from. Our results show that most terrestrial debris beaching at these remote western Indian Ocean islands drifts from Indonesia, India, and Sri Lanka. Debris associated with fisheries and shipping also poses a major risk. Debris accumulation at Seychelles is likely seasonal, peaking during February-April. This pattern is driven by monsoonal winds and may be amplified during positive Indian Ocean Dipole and El-Niño events. Our results underline the vulnerability of small island states to marine plastic pollution, and are a crucial step towards improved management of the issue. The trajectories used in this study are available for download, and our analyses can be rerun under different parameter choices.

Role of oceanic abiotic carbonate precipitation in future atmospheric CO2 regulation.

The oceans play a major role in the earth's climate by regulating atmospheric CO2. While oceanic primary productivity and organic carbon burial sequesters CO2 from the atmosphere, precipitation of CaCO3 in the sea returns CO2 to the atmosphere. Abiotic CaCO3 precipitation in the form of aragonite is potentially an important feedback mechanism for the global carbon cycle, but this process has not been fully quantified. In a sediment-trap study conducted in the southeastern Mediterranean Sea, one of the fastest warming and most oligotrophic regions in the ocean, we quantify for the first time the flux of inorganic aragonite in the water column. We show that this process is kinetically induced by the warming of surface water and prolonged stratification resulting in a high aragonite saturation state (ΩAr ≥ 4). Based on these relations, we estimate that abiotic aragonite calcification may account for 15 ± 3% of the previously reported CO2 efflux from the sea surface to the atmosphere in the southeastern Mediterranean. Modelled predictions of sea surface temperature and ΩAr suggest that this process may weaken in the future ocean, resulting in increased alkalinity and buffering capacity of atmospheric CO2.

A targeted next-generation sequencing assay for the molecular diagnosis of genetic disorders with orodental involvement.

BACKGROUND: Orodental diseases include several clinically and genetically heterogeneous disorders that can present in isolation or as part of a genetic syndrome. Due to the vast number of genes implicated in these disorders, establishing a molecular diagnosis can be challenging. We aimed to develop a targeted next-generation sequencing (NGS) assay to diagnose mutations and potentially identify novel genes mutated in this group of disorders. METHODS: We designed an NGS gene panel that targets 585 known and candidate genes in orodental disease. We screened a cohort of 101 unrelated patients without a molecular diagnosis referred to the Reference Centre for Oro-Dental Manifestations of Rare Diseases, Strasbourg, France, for a variety of orodental disorders including isolated and syndromic amelogenesis imperfecta (AI), isolated and syndromic selective tooth agenesis (STHAG), isolated and syndromic dentinogenesis imperfecta, isolated dentin dysplasia, otodental dysplasia and primary failure of tooth eruption. RESULTS: We discovered 21 novel pathogenic variants and identified the causative mutation in 39 unrelated patients in known genes (overall diagnostic rate: 39%). Among the largest subcohorts of patients with isolated AI (50 unrelated patients) and isolated STHAG (21 unrelated patients), we had a definitive diagnosis in 14 (27%) and 15 cases (71%), respectively. Surprisingly, COL17A1 mutations accounted for the majority of autosomal-dominant AI cases. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a novel targeted NGS assay for the efficient molecular diagnosis of a wide variety of orodental diseases. Furthermore, our panel will contribute to better understanding the contribution of these genes to orodental disease. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS: NCT01746121 and NCT02397824.