Revised monthly energy generation estimates for 1,500 hydroelectric power plants in the United States.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) conducts a regular survey (form EIA-923) to collect annual and monthly net generation for more than ten thousand U.S. power plants. Approximately 90% of the ~1,500 hydroelectric plants included in this data release are surveyed at annual resolution only and thus lack actual observations of monthly generation. For each of these plants, EIA imputes monthly generation values using the combined monthly generating pattern of other hydropower plants within the corresponding census division. The imputation method neglects local hydrology and reservoir operations, rendering the monthly data unsuitable for various research applications. Here we present an alternative approach to disaggregate each unobserved plant's reported annual generation using proxies of monthly generation-namely historical monthly reservoir releases and average river discharge rates recorded downstream of each dam. Evaluation of the new dataset demonstrates substantial and robust improvement over the current imputation method, particularly if reservoir release data are available. The new dataset-named RectifHyd-provides an alternative to EIA-923 for U.S. scale, plant-level, monthly hydropower net generation (2001-2020). RectifHyd may be used to support power system studies or analyze within-year hydropower generation behavior at various spatial scales.

ResOpsUS, a dataset of historical reservoir operations in the contiguous United States.

There are over 52,000 dams in the contiguous US ranging from 0.5 to 243 meters high that collectively hold 600,000 million cubic meters of water. These structures have dramatically affected the river dynamics of every major watershed in the country. While there are national datasets that document dam attributes, there is no national dataset of reservoir operations. Here we present a dataset of historical reservoir inflows, outflows and changes in storage for 679 major reservoirs across the US, called ResOpsUS. All of the data are provided at a daily temporal resolution. Temporal coverage varies by reservoir depending on construction date and digital data availability. Overall, the data spans from 1930 to 2020, although the best coverage is for the most recent years, particularly 1980 to 2020. The reservoirs included in our dataset cover more than half of the total storage of large reservoirs in the US (defined as reservoirs with storage greater 0.1 km3). We document the assembly process of this dataset as well as its contents. Historical operations are also compared to static reservoir attribute datasets for validation.

Climate-Induced Tradeoffs in Planning and Operating Costs of a Regional Electricity System.

Electricity grid planners design the system to supply electricity to end-users reliably and affordably. Climate change threatens both objectives through potentially compounding supply- and demand-side climate-induced impacts. Uncertainty surrounds each of these future potential impacts. Given long planning horizons, system planners must weigh investment costs against operational costs under this uncertainty. Here, we developed a comprehensive and coherent integrated modeling framework combining physically based models with cost-minimizing optimization models in the power system. We applied this modeling framework to analyze potential tradeoffs in planning and operating costs in the power grid due to climate change in the Southeast U.S. in 2050. We find that planning decisions that do not account for climate-induced impacts would result in a substantial increase in social costs associated with loss of load. These social costs are a result of under-investment in new capacity and capacity deratings of thermal generators when we included climate change impacts in the operation stage. These results highlight the importance of including climate change effects in the planning process.

Effects of Climate Change on Capacity Expansion Decisions of an Electricity Generation Fleet in the Southeast U.S.

The electric power sector in the United States faces many challenges related to climate change. On the demand side, climate change could shift demand patterns due to increased air temperatures. On the supply side, climate change could lead to deratings of thermal units due to changes in air temperature, water temperature, and water availability. Past studies have typically analyzed these risks separately. Here, we developed an integrated, multimodel framework to analyze how compounding risks of climate-change impacts on demand and supply affect long-term planning decisions in the power system. In the southeast U.S., we found that compounding climate-change impacts could result in a 35% increase in installed capacity by 2050 relative to the reference case. Participation of renewables, particularly solar, in the fleet increased, driven mostly by the expected increase in summertime peak demand. Such capacity requirements would increase investment costs by approximately 31 billion (USD 2015) over the next 30 years, compared to the reference case. These changes in investment decisions align with carbon emission mitigation strategies, highlighting how adaptation and mitigation strategies can converge.

Multiscale effects masked the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on electricity demand in the United States.

Shelter-in-place orders and business closures related to COVID-19 changed the hourly profile of electricity demand and created an unprecedented source of uncertainty for the grid. The potential for continued shifts in electricity profiles has implications for electricity sector investment and operating decisions that maintain reserve margins and provide grid reliability. This study reveals that understanding this uncertainty requires an understanding of the underlying drivers at the customer-class scale. This paper utilizes three datasets to compare the impacts of COVID-19 on electricity consumption across a range of spatiotemporal and customer scales. At the utility/customer-class scale, COVID-19-induced shutdowns in the spring of 2020 shifted weekday residential load profiles to resemble weekend profiles from previous years. Total commercial loads declined, but the commercial diurnal load profile was unchanged. With only total loads available at the balancing authority scale, the apparent impact of COVID-19 was smaller during the summer due in part to phased re-opening and spatial variability in re-opening, but there were still clear variations once total loads were broken down zonally. Monthly data at the state scale showed an increase in state-level residential electricity sales, a decrease in commercial sales, and a small net decrease in total sales in most states from April-August 2020. Analyses that focus on total load or a single scale may miss important changes that become apparent when the load is broken down regionally or by customer class.

21st century United States emissions mitigation could increase water stress more than the climate change it is mitigating.

There is evidence that warming leads to greater evapotranspiration and surface drying, thus contributing to increasing intensity and duration of drought and implying that mitigation would reduce water stresses. However, understanding the overall impact of climate change mitigation on water resources requires accounting for the second part of the equation, i.e., the impact of mitigation-induced changes in water demands from human activities. By using integrated, high-resolution models of human and natural system processes to understand potential synergies and/or constraints within the climate-energy-water nexus, we show that in the United States, over the course of the 21st century and under one set of consistent socioeconomics, the reductions in water stress from slower rates of climate change resulting from emission mitigation are overwhelmed by the increased water stress from the emissions mitigation itself. The finding that the human dimension outpaces the benefits from mitigating climate change is contradictory to the general perception that climate change mitigation improves water conditions. This research shows the potential for unintended and negative consequences of climate change mitigation.