Accurate spatiotemporal predictions of daily stream temperature from statistical models accounting for interactions between climate and landscape.

Spatial and temporal patterns in stream temperature are primary factors determining species composition, diversity and productivity in stream ecosystems. The availability of spatially and temporally continuous estimates of stream temperature would improve the ability of biologists to fully explore the effects of stream temperature on biota. Most statistical stream temperature modeling techniques are limited in their ability to account for the influence of variables changing across spatial and temporal gradients. We identified and described important interactions between climate and spatial variables that approximate mechanistic controls on spatiotemporal patterns in stream temperature. With identified relationships we formed models to generate reach-scale basin-wide spatially and temporally continuous predictions of daily mean stream temperature in four Columbia River tributaries watersheds of the Pacific Northwest, USA. Models were validated with a testing dataset composed of completely distinct sites and measurements from different years. While some patterns in residuals remained, testing dataset predictions of selected models demonstrated high accuracy and precision (averaged RMSE for each watershed ranged from 0.85-1.54 °C) and was only 17% higher on average than training dataset prediction error. Aggregating daily predictions to monthly predictions of mean stream temperature reduced prediction error by an average of 23%. The accuracy of predictions was largely consistent across diverse climate years, demonstrating the ability of the models to capture the influences of interannual climatic variability and extend predictions to timeframes with limited temperature logger data. Results suggest that the inclusion of a range of interactions between spatial and climatic variables can approximate dynamic mechanistic controls on stream temperatures.

Why is data sharing in collaborative natural resource efforts so hard and what can we do to improve it?

Increasingly, research and management in natural resource science rely on very large datasets compiled from multiple sources. While it is generally good to have more data, utilizing large, complex datasets has introduced challenges in data sharing, especially for collaborating researchers in disparate locations ("distributed research teams"). We surveyed natural resource scientists about common data-sharing problems. The major issues identified by our survey respondents (n = 118) when providing data were lack of clarity in the data request (including format of data requested). When receiving data, survey respondents reported various insufficiencies in documentation describing the data (e.g., no data collection description/no protocol, data aggregated, or summarized without explanation). Since metadata, or "information about the data," is a central obstacle in efficient data handling, we suggest documenting metadata through data dictionaries, protocols, read-me files, explicit null value documentation, and process metadata as essential to any large-scale research program. We advocate for all researchers, but especially those involved in distributed teams to alleviate these problems with the use of several readily available communication strategies including the use of organizational charts to define roles, data flow diagrams to outline procedures and timelines, and data update cycles to guide data-handling expectations. In particular, we argue that distributed research teams magnify data-sharing challenges making data management training even more crucial for natural resource scientists. If natural resource scientists fail to overcome communication and metadata documentation issues, then negative data-sharing experiences will likely continue to undermine the success of many large-scale collaborative projects.

Projected climate-induced habitat loss for salmonids in the John Day River network, Oregon, U.S.A.

Climate change will likely have profound effects on cold-water species of freshwater fishes. As temperatures rise, cold-water fish distributions may shift and contract in response. Predicting the effects of projected stream warming in stream networks is complicated by the generally poor correlation between water temperature and air temperature. Spatial dependencies in stream networks are complex because the geography of stream processes is governed by dimensions of flow direction and network structure. Therefore, forecasting climate-driven range shifts of stream biota has lagged behind similar terrestrial modeling efforts. We predicted climate-induced changes in summer thermal habitat for 3 cold-water fish species-juvenile Chinook salmon, rainbow trout, and bull trout (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, O. mykiss, and Salvelinus confluentus, respectively)-in the John Day River basin, northwestern United States. We used a spatially explicit statistical model designed to predict water temperature in stream networks on the basis of flow and spatial connectivity. The spatial distribution of stream temperature extremes during summers from 1993 through 2009 was largely governed by solar radiation and interannual extremes of air temperature. For a moderate climate change scenario, estimated declines by 2100 in the volume of habitat for Chinook salmon, rainbow trout, and bull trout were 69-95%, 51-87%, and 86-100%, respectively. Although some restoration strategies may be able to offset these projected effects, such forecasts point to how and where restoration and management efforts might focus.