Scaling from challenge experiments to the field: Quantifying the impact of vaccination on the transmission of bluetongue virus serotype 8.

Bluetongue (BT) is an economically important disease of ruminants caused by bluetongue virus (BTV) and transmitted by Culicoides biting midges. The most practical and effective way to protect susceptible animals against BTV is by vaccination. Data from challenge studies in calves and sheep conducted by Intervet International b.v., in particular, presence of viral RNA in the blood of challenged animals, were used to estimate vaccine efficacy. The results of the challenge studies for calves indicated that vaccination is likely to reduce the basic reproduction number (R(0)) for BTV in cattle to below one (i.e. prevent major outbreaks within a holding) and that this reduction is robust to uncertainty in the model parameters. Sensitivity analysis showed that the whether or not vaccination is predicted to reduce R(0) to below one depended on the following assumptions: (i) whether "doubtful" results from the challenge studies are treated as negative or positive; (ii) whether or not the probability of transmission from host to vector is reduced by vaccination; and (iii) whether the extrinsic incubation period follows a realistic gamma distribution or the more commonly used exponential distribution. For sheep, all but one of the vaccinated animals were protected and, consequently, vaccination will consistently reduce R(0) in sheep to below one. Using a stochastic spatial model for the spread of BTV in Great Britain (GB), vaccination was predicted to reduce both the incidence of disease and spatial spread in simulated BTV outbreaks in GB, in both reactive vaccination strategies and when an incursion occurred into a previously vaccinated population.

Selectivity in progesterone and androgen receptor binding of progestagens used in oral contraceptives.

The relative binding affinities (RBAs) of four progestational compounds (norethisterone, levonorgestrel, 3-keto-desogestrel and gestodene) for the human progesterone and androgen receptors were measured in MCF-7 cytosol and intact MCF-7 cells. For the binding to the progesterone receptor, both Org 2058 and Org 3236 (or 3-keto-desogestrel) were used as labelled ligands. The following ranking (low to high) for the RBA of the nuclear (intact cells) progesterone receptor irrespective of the ligand used is found: norethisterone much less than levonorgestrel less than 3-keto-destogestrel less than gestodene. The difference between the various progestagens is significant with the exception of that between 3-keto-desogestrel and gestodene, when Org 2058 is used as ligand. For the cytosolic progesterone receptor, the same order is found with the exception that similar RBAs are found for gestodene and 3-keto-desogestrel. The four progestagens clearly differ with respect to binding to the androgen receptor using dihydrotestosterone as labelled ligand in intact cells; the ranking (low to high) is: norethisterone less than 3 keto-desogestrel less than levonorgestrel and gestodene. The difference between 3-keto-desogestrel and levonorgestrel or gestodene is significant. The selectivity indices (ratio of the mean RBA for the progesterone receptor to that of androgen receptor) in intact cells are significantly higher for 3-keto-desogestrel and gestodene than for levonorgestrel and norethisterone. From these results we conclude that the introduction of the 18-methyl in norethisterone (levonorgestel) increases both the binding to the progesterone and androgen receptors.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)