Projected climate change impacts on the phylogenetic diversity of the world's terrestrial birds: more than species numbers.

Ongoing climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. As abiotic tolerances and dispersal abilities vary, species-specific responses have the potential to further amplify or ameliorate the ensuing impacts on species assemblages. Here, we investigate the effects of climate change on species distributions across non-marine birds, quantifying its projected impact on species richness (SR) as well as on different aspects of phylogenetic diversity globally. Going beyond previous work, we disentangle the potential impacts of species gains versus losses on assemblage-level phylogenetic diversity under climate change and compare the projected impacts to randomized assemblage changes. We show that beyond its effects on SR, climate change could have profound impacts on assemblage-level phylogenetic diversity and composition, which differ significantly from random changes and among regions. Though marked species losses are most frequent in tropical and subtropical areas in our projections, phylogenetic restructuring of species communities is likely to occur all across the globe. Furthermore, our results indicate that the most severe changes to the phylogenetic diversity of local assemblages are likely to be caused by species range shifts and local species gains rather than range reductions and extinctions. Our findings highlight the importance of considering diverse measures in climate impact assessments.

Global impacts of climate change on avian functional diversity.

Climate change is predicted to drive geographical range shifts, leading to fluctuations in species richness (SR) worldwide. However, the effect of these changes on functional diversity (FD) remains unclear, in part because comprehensive species-level trait data are generally lacking at global scales. Here, we use morphometric and ecological traits for 8268 bird species to estimate the impact of climate change on avian FD. We show that future bird assemblages are likely to undergo substantial shifts in trait structure, with a magnitude of change greater than predicted from SR alone, and a direction of change varying according to geographical location and trophic guild. For example, our models predict that FD of insect predators will increase at higher latitudes with concurrent losses at mid-latitudes, whereas FD of seed dispersing birds will fluctuate across the tropics. Our findings highlight the potential for climate change to drive continental-scale shifts in avian FD with implications for ecosystem function and resilience.

Representation of the world's biophysical conditions by the global protected area network.

Protected areas (PAs) are often implemented without consideration of already existing PAs, which is likely to cause an overrepresentation of certain biophysical conditions. We assessed the representativeness of the current PA network with regard to the world's biophysical conditions to highlight which conditions are underprotected and where these conditions are located. We overlaid terrestrial and marine PAs with information on biophysical conditions (e.g., temperature, precipitation, and elevation) and then quantified the percentage of area covered by the PA network. For 1 variable at a time in the terrestrial realm, high temperature, low precipitation, and medium and very high elevation were underrepresented. For the marine realm, low and medium sea surface temperature (SST), medium and high sea surface salinity (SSS), and the deep sea were underrepresented. Overall, protection was evenly distributed for elevation across the terrestrial realm and SST across the marine realm. For 2 variables at a time, cold and very dry terrestrial environments had mostly low protection, which was also the case for low SST and low and medium SSS across most depths for marine environments. Low protection occurred mostly in the Sahara and the Arabian Peninsula for the terrestrial realm and along the Tropic of Capricorn and toward the poles for the marine realm. Although biodiversity measures are of prime importance for the design of PA networks, highlighting biophysical gaps in current PAs adds a frequently overlooked perspective. These gaps may weaken the potential of PAs to conserve biodiversity. Thus, our results may provide useful insights for researchers, practitioners, and policy makers to establish a more comprehensive global PA network.

Las áreas protegidas (AP) son frecuentemente implementadas sin considerar las ya existentes, lo que probablemente ocasiona una sobrerrepresentación de ciertas condiciones biofísicas. Analizamos la representatividad de la red actual de AP con respecto a las condiciones biofísicas del mundo para resaltar que condiciones están subprotegidas y en dónde se encuentran localizadas. Superpusimos las AP terrestres y marinas con la información sobre las condiciones biofísicas (p. ej.: temperatura, precipitación y elevación) y luego cuantificamos el porcentaje de área cubierta por la red de AP. Para el análisis de una variable a la vez, en el ambito terrestre, la alta temperatura, baja precipitación y las elevaciones media y muy alta estuvieron subrepresentadas. Para el ambito marino, la baja y media temperatura de la superficie marina (TSM), la media y alta salinidad de la superficie marina (SSM) y el mar profundo estuvieron subrepresentados. En general, la protección para la elevación en el ambito terrestre y para la TSM en el ambito marino se distribuyó uniformemente. Para el análisis de dos variables a la vez, los ambientes terrestres fríos y muy secos tuvieron en su mayoría una baja protección, lo que también ocurrió para la baia TSM y la baja y media SSM en casi todas las profundidades de los entornos marinos. La baja protección para el ambito terrestre estuvo presente en su mayoría en el Sahara y en la Península Arábiga, y en el ambito marino, a lo largo del Trópico de Cáncer y hacia los polos. Aunque las medidas de biodiversidad son de suma importancia para el diseño de las redes de AP, resaltar los vacíos de información biofísica en las actuales AP añade una perspectiva que con frecuencia se ignora. Estos vacíos pueden debilitar el potencial que tienen las AP para conservar la biodiversidad. Por lo tanto, nuestros resultados pueden proporcionar información útil para que investigadores, profesionales y tomadores de decisiones establezcan una red mundial de AP más completa.

Bioenergy cropland expansion may offset positive effects of climate change mitigation for global vertebrate diversity.

Climate and land-use change interactively affect biodiversity. Large-scale expansions of bioenergy have been suggested as an important component for climate change mitigation. Here we use harmonized climate and land-use projections to investigate their potential combined impacts on global vertebrate diversity under a low- and a high-level emission scenario. We combine climate-based species distribution models for the world's amphibians, birds, and mammals with land-use change simulations and identify areas threatened by both climate and land-use change in the future. The combined projected effects of climate and land-use change on vertebrate diversity are similar under the two scenarios, with land-use change effects being stronger under the low- and climate change effects under the high-emission scenario. Under the low-emission scenario, increases in bioenergy cropland may cause severe impacts in biodiversity that are not compensated by lower climate change impacts. Under this low-emission scenario, larger proportions of species distributions and a higher number of small-range species may become impacted by the combination of land-use and climate change than under the high-emission scenario, largely a result of bioenergy cropland expansion. Our findings highlight the need to carefully consider both climate and land-use change when projecting biodiversity impacts. We show that biodiversity is likely to suffer severely if bioenergy cropland expansion remains a major component of climate change mitigation strategies. Our study calls for an immediate and significant reduction in energy consumption for the benefit of both biodiversity and to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.