The potential contributions of bouillon fortification to meeting micronutrient requirements among women and preschool children in Senegal: A modeling study using household consumption and expenditure survey data.

To reduce micronutrient deficiencies, Senegal mandates the fortification of refined oil with vitamin A and wheat flour with iron and folic acid. Expanding Senegal's large-scale food fortification programs to include fortified bouillon could help fill the remaining gaps in dietary micronutrient requirements. Using 7-day household food consumption data collected between 2018 and 2019, we assessed the potential contributions of bouillon fortified with vitamin A (40-250 µg/g bouillon), folic acid (20-120 µg/g), vitamin B12 (0.2-2 µg/g), iron (0.6-5 mg/g), and zinc (0.6-5 mg/g) for meeting micronutrient requirements of women of reproductive age (WRA; 15-49 years old) and children (6-59 months old). Most households (90%) reported consuming bouillon, including poor and rural households. At modeled fortification levels, bouillon fortification reduced the national prevalence of inadequacy by up to ∼20 percentage points (pp) for vitamin A, 34 pp (WRA) and 20 pp (children) for folate, 20 pp for vitamin B12, 38 pp (WRA) and 30 pp (children) for zinc, and ∼8 pp for iron. Predicted reductions in inadequacy were generally larger among poor and rural populations, especially for vitamins A and B12. Our modeling suggests that bouillon fortification has the potential to substantially reduce dietary inadequacy of multiple micronutrients and could also help address inequities in dietary micronutrient inadequacies in Senegal.

Modeled impacts of bouillon fortification with micronutrients on child mortality in Senegal, Burkina Faso, and Nigeria.

Micronutrient interventions can reduce child mortality. By applying Micronutrient Intervention Modeling methods in Senegal, Burkina Faso, and Nigeria, we estimated the impacts of bouillon fortification on apparent dietary adequacy of vitamin A and zinc among children and folate among women. We then used the Lives Saved Tool to predict the impacts of bouillon fortification with ranges of vitamin A, zinc, and folic acid concentrations on lives saved among children 6-59 months of age. Fortification at 250 µg vitamin A/g and 120 µg folic acid/g was predicted to substantially reduce vitamin A- and folate-attributable deaths: 65% for vitamin A and 92% for folate (Senegal), 36% for vitamin A and 74% for folate (Burkina Faso), and >95% for both (Nigeria). Zinc fortification at 5 mg/g would avert 48% (Senegal), 31% (Burkina Faso), and 63% (Nigeria) of zinc-attributable deaths. The addition of all three nutrients at 30% of Codex nutrient reference values in 2.5 g bouillon was predicted to save an annual average of 293 child lives in Senegal (3.5% of deaths from all causes among children 6-59 months of age), 933 (2.1%) in Burkina Faso, and 18,362 (3.7%) in Nigeria. These results, along with evidence on program feasibility and costs, can help inform fortification program design discussions.

Micronutrient-fortified bouillon as a strategy to improve the micronutrient adequacy of diets in Burkina Faso.

Bouillon is a promising candidate for fortification to complement existing large-scale food fortification (LSFF) programs. We used household dietary data from Burkina Faso to model potential contributions of bouillon fortified with vitamin A (40-250 µg/g bouillon), folic acid (20-120 µg/g), vitamin B12 (0.2-2 µg/g), iron (0.6-5 mg/g), and zinc (0.6-5 mg/g) for meeting micronutrient requirements of women of reproductive age (15-49 years; WRA) and children (6-59 months). Most households (82%) reported bouillon consumption, with higher proportions of resource-constrained (84-88%) and rural households (88%) consuming bouillon. Accounting for the contributions of existing LSFF, household diets were inadequate to meet the micronutrient requirements of many WRA and children, exceeding 90% and 60% inadequacy for vitamins A and B12, respectively. Modeling results showed bouillon fortification could reduce inadequacy by up to ∼30 percentage points (pp) for vitamin A, ∼26 pp for folate among WRA (∼11 pp among children), ∼38 pp for vitamin B12, and 11-13 pp for zinc, with comparable reductions across socioeconomic strata and urban and rural residence. Predicted reductions in iron inadequacy were <3 pp. These results suggest dietary micronutrient inadequacies are a concern in Burkina Faso, and fortified bouillon can make substantial contributions to reducing micronutrient inadequacies, including among resource-constrained and rural populations.

Effect of multiple micronutrient-fortified bouillon on micronutrient status among women and children in the Northern Region of Ghana: Protocol for the Condiment Micronutrient Innovation Trial (CoMIT), a community-based randomized controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Micronutrient deficiencies are prevalent in West Africa, particularly among women of reproductive age (WRA) and young children. Bouillon is a promising food fortification vehicle due to its widespread consumption. This study aims to evaluate the impact of multiple micronutrient-fortified bouillon cubes, compared to control bouillon cubes (fortified with iodine only), on micronutrient status and hemoglobin concentrations among lactating and non-lactating WRA and young children in northern Ghana. METHODS: This randomized, controlled doubly-masked trial will be conducted in the Kumbungu and Tolon districts in the Northern Region of Ghana, where prior data indicate multiple micronutrient deficiencies are common. Participants will be: 1) non-pregnant non-lactating WRA (15-49 y), 2) children 2-5 y, and 3) non-pregnant lactating women 4-18 months postpartum. Eligible participants will be randomly assigned to receive household rations of one of two types of bouillon cubes: 1) a multiple micronutrient-fortified bouillon cube containing vitamin A, folic acid, vitamin B12, iron, zinc, and iodine, or 2) a control cube containing iodine only. Each participant's household will receive a ration of bouillon cubes every 2 weeks, and households will be advised to prepare meals as usual, using the study-provided cubes. The trial duration will be 9 months for non-pregnant non-lactating WRA and children, and 3 months for lactating women. The primary outcomes will be changes in biomarkers of micronutrient status and hemoglobin among WRA and children and milk micronutrient concentrations among lactating women. Secondary outcomes will include change in prevalence of micronutrient deficiency and anemia; dietary intake of bouillon and micronutrients; inflammation, malaria, and morbidity symptoms; and child growth and development. DISCUSSION: Evidence from this study will inform discussions about bouillon fortification in Ghana and West Africa. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered on ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05178407) and the Pan-African Clinical Trial Registry (PACTR202206868437931). This manuscript reflects protocol version 4 (August 29, 2022).

Consumption of Discretionary Salt and Salt from Bouillon among Households, Women, and Young Children in Northern Region, Ghana: A Mixed-Methods Study with the Condiment Micronutrient Innovation Trial (CoMIT) Project.

Background: Information on salt consumption patterns is needed to inform the need for and design of salt reduction strategies. Objectives: In northern Ghana, this study aimed to estimate household consumption of salt, including salt from bouillon, and compare (estimated) women and children's salt intake to global recommendations; to estimate the proportion of salt consumed from bouillon; and to identify factors, including knowledge, attitudes, and practices, associated with household salt consumption. Methods: Employing mixed-methods methodology, we conducted a pilot survey (n = 369 households enrolled) and focus group discussions (FGDs; n = 20) in Tolon and Kumbungu districts (14 urban, 14 rural clusters) (clinicaltrials.gov registry: NCT04632771). Households reported purchases of discretionary salt (DS, "table salt") and bouillon cubes. DS and total salt (TS; DS+salt from bouillon) consumption for women (15-49 y) and children (2-5 y) were estimated using the Adult Male Equivalent method and compared with global recommendations (<5 g/d women; <3.75 g/d children). Women's salt intake was also predicted from urinary sodium excretion (INTERSALT equation). Associations between DS and TS consumption, as well as household and women's characteristics, were tested with minimally adjusted and multivariable linear mixed-effects models. Qualitative FGD themes were generated using the Framework Method. Results: From household purchase data, estimated TS consumption exceeded global recommendations for 44% of children [median: 2.9 (IQR: 1.9, 5.2) g/d] and 60% of women [6.0 (4.0, 10.2) g/d]; 35% of children and 50% of women exceeded recommendations from DS alone. Bouillon contributed <25% of households' TS consumption. Few characteristics were associated with DS or TS consumption. Salient qualitative themes that shaped salt consumption behaviors included salt's ubiquity as a seasoning, key household members' influence on food procurement and preparation, and perceptions about health. Conclusions: Purchase data suggest salt consumption among women and children exceeds recommendations, even when excluding salt from bouillon; food prepared outside the home likely further contributes. Salt reduction interventions may be warranted in this context.

Acceptability of Multiple Micronutrient-Fortified Bouillon Cubes among Women and Their Households in 2 Districts in The Northern Region of Ghana.

Background: Bouillon is a promising large-scale food fortification vehicle, but there is uncertainty regarding the types and concentrations of micronutrients that are feasible to add without compromising consumer acceptability. Objective: The objective of this study was to evaluate the acceptability of 2 different multiple micronutrient-fortified bouillon cube formulations, compared with a bouillon cube fortified with iodine only. Methods: We conducted a double-blind, randomized, controlled acceptability study in 2 districts in northern Ghana. Two nonproprietary, noncommercialized formulations of multiple micronutrient-fortified bouillon cubes containing iron, zinc, folic acid, vitamins A and B12, and iodine at "upper-level" (45-125% CODEX NRV/2.5g) or "lower-level" (15-50% CODEX NRV/2.5g) concentrations, and a control cube that contained iodine only (50% CODEX NRV/2.5g) were evaluated. Eligible women (n = 84) were invited to participate in 1) center-based sensory evaluations designed to permit within-individual comparisons among the different study products; and 2) in-home evaluation of bouillon acceptability and use, in which participants were randomized to receive 1 of the 3 study products to use in household cooking for a 2-wk period. Acceptance test ratings were based on a 5-point Likert scale (1 = dislike very much, 5 = like very much). Results: In the center-based evaluations, overall liking of the 3 bouillon cube formulations both dry and in prepared dishes ranged from 4.3 to 4.6 on the 5-point Likert scale and did not differ among formulations (P > 0.05). After the 2-wk in-home trial, 93.8% of index participants (n = 75/80) rated their overall liking of the bouillon product formulation to which they were randomly assigned as "like" or "like very much" (4-5 on the 5-point Likert scale) and median apparent intake of study-provided bouillon over 2 wk was 3.6 g/capita/d; neither value differed by study group (P = 0.91 for both). Conclusions: All 3 formulations of bouillon cubes assessed were acceptable to women and their households in 2 districts in northern Ghana.This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as NCT05177614.

Firm-Level and Public-Sector Costs Make Small-Scale Maize Flour Fortification Challenging in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Maize flour in Uganda is milled by hundreds of enterprises, mostly small- (5-20 metric tons [MT]/day) and micro-scale (<5 MT/day) mills or firms. A mandatory maize flour fortification program exists for medium-scale mills (>20 MT/day) and policymakers are considering including smaller-scale millers. OBJECTIVE: We estimated the private and public costs of maize flour fortification at different scales and explored their implications for extending the mandatory fortification to include smaller-scale mills. METHODS: We used secondary data on the structure of the maize flour market and primary data on milling and fortification costs to estimate mill and regulatory costs at 3 scales of flour production: micro, small, and medium. RESULTS: For micro-, small-, and medium-size operations, respectively, operational costs of fortification were US$13, US$9, and US$7 per metric ton (MT) of maize flour, which represented 20%, 16%, and 16% of annual operating costs, and the ratio of fortification equipment cost to mill equipment costs was higher for micro-scale mills (2.7) than for small- (0.38) and medium-scale (0.54) maize mills. Governmental regulatory costs rise if smaller-scale mills are included due to the increased number of facility inspections. CONCLUSIONS: Fortification and regulatory costs increase as production scale decreases. Up-front capital costs of fortification would be daunting for micro- and small-scale mills. Medium-scale mills, which supply social protection programs, might be able to manage fortification costs and other challenges. Decision-makers should consider all costs and cost burdens, and the realities of enforcement capabilities before expanding fortification programs to include smaller-scale operations.

Plain language titleCosts of Small-scale Maize Flour Fortification in UgandaPlain language summaryA study of the costs of adding vitamins and minerals by small-scale maize flour millers in Uganda was undertaken to understand if it would be commercially beneficial from a business and operations perspective for them to do so, and if requiring them to do so would impose additional cost burdens on government to ensure that fortification standards were met.Why was the study done?Maize flour is consumed by the majority of Uganda's population, especially the rural poor. If the flour were fortified, it would reduce vitamin and mineral deficiencies among those at risk. The most important constraint to market-wide fortification is the presence of many small-scale mills or firms that neither have the resources nor the technology to adopt and sustain the fortification process. To date, no study has been done to calculate the costs that small-scale mills would have to face to fortify flour, or what the cost implications for government would be for including smaller-scale mills in a national fortification program, including the costs of enforcing regulations.What did the researchers do?The researchers interviewed millers of several scales of operation to collect cost information on their operations and interviewed representatives of government regulatory bodies to estimate the costs of testing maize flour to ensure compliance with regulations. Researchers estimated the cost to the mills of adding fortification to their business models, and the impacts on the government costs (eg, testing additional samples, etc.) of including smaller-scale mills in the fortification program.What did the researchers find?The researchers looked at 3 different types of mills based on their capacity to mill maize flour­micro-scale firms milled less than 5 metric tons (MT) a day, small-scale firms milled 5 to 20 MT per day, and medium-scale firms milled over 20 MT a day. For micro-, small-, and medium-size firms, respectively, fortification increased operational costs by US$13, US$9, and US$7 per MT of maize flour, which represented 20%, 16%, and 16% of annual operating costs. Similarly, governmental regulatory costs rose if smaller-scale mills were included because of the increased number of facility inspections required since the current legislation requires mandatory annual inspections.What do the findings mean?Fortification and regulatory costs increase as the scale of production by the millers decreases. If fortification by small- and micro-scale mills were made mandatory, up-front costs of fortification equipment and materials would be daunting for micro- and small-scale millers. Ugandan medium-scale millers might manage fortification costs and other challenges, but only if the social protection programs they supplied were of sufficient volume and regularity.

The cost-effectiveness of small-quantity lipid-based nutrient supplements for prevention of child death and malnutrition and promotion of healthy development: modelling results for Uganda.

OBJECTIVE: Recent meta-analyses demonstrate that small-quantity lipid-based nutrient supplements (SQ-LNS) for young children significantly reduce child mortality, stunting, wasting, anaemia and adverse developmental outcomes. Cost considerations should inform policy decisions. We developed a modelling framework to estimate the cost and cost-effectiveness of SQ-LNS and applied the framework in the context of rural Uganda. DESIGN: We adapted costs from a costing study of micronutrient powder (MNP) in Uganda, and based effectiveness estimates on recent meta-analyses and Uganda-specific estimates of baseline mortality and the prevalence of stunting, wasting, anaemia and developmental disability. SETTING: Rural Uganda. PARTICIPANTS: Not applicable. RESULTS: Providing SQ-LNS daily to all children in rural Uganda (> 1 million) for 12 months (from 6 to 18 months of age) via the existing Village Health Team system would cost ∼$52 per child (2020 US dollars) or ∼$58·7 million annually. SQ-LNS could avert an average of > 242 000 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) annually as a result of preventing 3689 deaths, > 160 000 cases of moderate or severe anaemia and ∼6000 cases of developmental disability. The estimated cost per DALY averted is $242. CONCLUSIONS: In this context, SQ-LNS may be more cost-effective than other options such as MNP or the provision of complementary food, although the total cost for a programme including all age-eligible children would be high. Strategies to reduce costs, such as targeting to the most vulnerable populations and the elimination of taxes on SQ-LNS, may enhance financial feasibility.

Estimating the cost and cost-effectiveness of adding zinc to, and improving the performance of, Burkina Faso's mandatory wheat flour fortification programme.

Zinc is an essential micronutrient that promotes normal growth, development and immune function. In the context of persistent dietary zinc inadequacies, large-scale food fortification can help fill the gap between intake and requirements. Burkina Faso mandates wheat flour fortification with iron and folic acid. We used activity-based cost modelling to estimate the cost of adding zinc to the country's wheat flour fortification standard assuming (1) no change in compliance with the national standard, and (2) a substantial improvement in compliance. We used household food consumption data to model effective coverage, that is, the number of women of reproductive age (WRA) predicted to achieve adequate zinc density (zinc intake/1000 kcal) with the addition of fortification to diets. Without interventions, the prevalence of inadequate dietary zinc density was ~35.5%. With no change in compliance, the annual average incremental cost of adding zinc to fortified wheat flour was $10,347, which would effectively cover <1% of WRA at an incremental cost of ~$0.54/WRA effectively covered. Improving compliance added ~$300,000/year to the cost of the fortification programme without zinc; including zinc added another ~$78,000/year but only reduced inadequate intake among WRA by 3.6% at an incremental cost of ~$0.45/WRA effectively covered. Although the incremental cost of adding zinc to wheat flour is low ($0.01/wheat flour consumer/year), given low levels of wheat flour consumption, zinc fortification of wheat flour alone contributes marginally to, but will not fully close, the dietary zinc gap. Future research should explore potential contributions of zinc to a broader set of delivery vehicles.

Impacts of micronutrient intervention programs on effective coverage and lives saved: Modeled evidence from Cameroon.

Policymakers are committed to improving nutritional status and to saving lives. Some micronutrient intervention programs (MIPs) can do both, but not to the same degrees. We apply the Micronutrient Intervention Modeling tool to compare sets of MIPs for (1) achieving dietary adequacy separately for zinc, vitamin A (VA), and folate for children and women of reproductive age (WRA), and (2) saving children's lives via combinations of MIPs. We used 24-h dietary recall data from Cameroon to estimate usual intake distributions of zinc and VA for children 6-59 months and of folate for WRA. We simulated the effects on dietary inadequacy and lives saved of four fortified foods and two VA supplementation (VAS) platforms. We estimated program costs over 10 years. To promote micronutrient-specific dietary adequacy, the economic optimization model (EOM) selected zinc- and folic acid-fortified wheat flour, VA-fortified edible oils, and bouillon cubes, and VAS via Child Health Days in the North macroregion. A different set of cost-effective MIPs emerged for reducing child mortality, shifting away from VA and toward more zinc for children and more folic acid for WRA. The EOM identified more efficient sets of MIPs than the business-as-usual MIPs, especially among programs aiming to save lives.

Association between prenatal provision of lipid-based nutrient supplements and caesarean delivery: Findings from a randomised controlled trial in Malawi.

In populations with a high prevalence of childhood and adolescent undernutrition, supplementation during pregnancy aiming at improving maternal nutritional status and preventing fetal growth restriction might theoretically lead to cephalopelvic disproportion and delivery complications. We investigated whether the prenatal provision of small-quantity lipid-based nutrient supplements (SQ-LNS) was associated with an increased risk of caesarean section (CS) or other delivery complications. Pregnant Malawian women were randomised to receive daily i) iron-folic acid (IFA) capsule (control), ii) multiple micronutrient (MMN) capsule of 18 micronutrients (second control), or iii) SQ-LNS with similar micronutrients as MMN, plus four minerals and macronutrients contributing 118 kcal. We analysed the associations of SQ-LNS, CS, and other delivery complications using log-binomial regressions. Among 1391 women enrolled, 1255 had delivery information available. The incidence of CS and delivery complications was 6.3% and 8.2%, respectively. The incidence of CS was 4.0%, 6.0%, and 8.9% (p = 0.017) in the IFA, MMN, and LNS groups, respectively. Compared to the IFA group, the relative risk (95% confidence interval) of CS was 2.2 (1.3-3.8) (p = 0.006) in the LNS group and 1.5 (0.8-2.7) (p = 0.200) in the MMN group. We found no significant differences for other delivery complications. Provision of SQ-LNS to pregnant women may have increased the incidence of CS. The baseline rate was, however, lower than recommended. It is unclear if the higher CS incidence in the SQ-LNS group resulted from increased obstetric needs or more active health seeking and a better supply of services. Trial registered at clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01239693.

Nutrition modeling tools: a qualitative study of influence on policy decision making and determining factors.

Nutrition modeling tools (NMTs) generate evidence to inform policy and program decision making; however, the literature is generally limited to modeling methods and results, rather than use cases and their impacts. We aimed to document the policy influences of 12 NMTs and identify factors influencing them. We conducted semistructured interviews with 109 informants from 30 low- and middle-income country case studies and used thematic analysis to understand the data. NMTs were mostly applied by international organizations to inform national government decision making. NMT applications contributed to enabling environments for nutrition and influenced program design and policy in most cases; however, this influence could be strengthened. Influence was shaped by processes for applying the NMTs; ownership of the analysis and data inputs, and capacity building in NMT methods, encouraged uptake. Targeting evidence generation at specific policy cycle stages promoted uptake; however, where advocacy capacity allowed, modeling was embedded ad hoc into emerging policy discussions and had broader influence. Meanwhile, external factors, such as political change and resource constraints of local partner organizations, challenged NMT implementation. Importantly, policy uptake was never the result of NMTs exclusively, indicating they should be nested persistently and strategically within the wider evidence and advocacy continuum, rather than being stand-alone activities.

Update on Analytical Methods and Research Gaps in the Use of Household Consumption and Expenditure Survey Data to Inform the Design of Food-Fortification Programs.

The lack of nationally representative, individual-level dietary intake data has led researchers to increasingly turn to household-level data on food acquisitions and/or consumption to inform the design of food-fortification programs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). These nationally representative, household-level data come from household consumption and expenditure surveys (HCESs), which are collected regularly in many LMICs and are often made publicly available. Our objectives were to examine the utility of HCES data to inform the design of food-fortification programs and to identify best-practice methods for analyzing HCES data for this purpose. To this end, we summarized information needed to design fortification programs and assessed the extent to which HCES data can provide corresponding indicators. We concluded that HCES data are well suited to guide the selection of appropriate food vehicles, but because individual-level estimates of apparent nutrient intakes rely on assumptions about the intrahousehold distribution of food, more caution is advised when using HCES data to select the target micronutrient content of fortified foods. We also developed a checklist to guide analysts through the use of HCES data and, where possible, identified research-based, best-practice analytical methods for analyzing HCES data, including selecting the number of days of recall data to include in the analysis and converting reported units to standard units. More research is needed on how best to deal with composite foods, foods consumed away from home, and extreme values, as well as the best methods for assessing the adequacy of apparent intakes. Ultimately, we recommend sensitivity analyses around key model parameters, and the continual triangulation of HCES-based results with other national and subnational data on food availability, dietary intake, and nutritional status when designing food-fortification programs.

Applying Zinc Nutrient Reference Values as Proposed by Different Authorities Results in Large Differences in the Estimated Prevalence of Inadequate Zinc Intake by Young Children and Women and in Cameroon.

Nutrient reference values (NRVs) for zinc set by several expert groups differ widely and may affect the predicted prevalence of inadequate zinc intake. We examined this possibility using NRVs published by four different authorities and nationally representative dietary intake data collected among children aged 12-59 months and women in Cameroon. Usual zinc intake was estimated from 24 h recall data using the National Cancer Institute method. Prevalences of total zinc intake below the dietary requirement and of "absorbable zinc intake" below the physiological requirement were estimated using NRVs published by the World Health Organization (WHO), US Institute of Medicine (IOM), International Zinc Nutrition Consultative Group (IZiNCG), and European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). The prevalence of inadequate zinc intake ranged from 10% (IZiNCG-physiological requirement, 95% CI 7-13%) to 81% (EFSA-physiological requirement, 95% CI 78-84%) among children and 9% (WHO-physiological requirement, 95% CI 8-11.0%) to 94% (IOM-physiological requirement, 95% CI 92-95%) among women These differences in the prevalence of inadequate intake translated into sizeable differences in the predicted benefit and cost-effectiveness of zinc fortification programs. Depending on the NRVs applied, assessments differ regarding the need for and design of zinc fortification programs. Efforts are needed to harmonize NRVs for zinc.

Comparing estimated cost-effectiveness of micronutrient intervention programs using primary and secondary data: evidence from Cameroon.

Designing a cost-effective portfolio of micronutrient intervention programs is complex and generally undertaken with limited data. We developed the MINIMOD-Secondary Data (MINIMOD-SD) tool, which uses household consumption and expenditure survey data and other secondary data to estimate apparent nutrient intakes and model the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of micronutrient intervention programs. We present the SD tool methodology and results in the context of Cameroon, with a particular focus on vitamin A (VA) for children and folate for women of reproductive age (WRA). We compared the MINIMOD-SD tool estimates with those of the full MINIMOD tool, which uses 24-h dietary recall data. The SD tool consistently underestimated folate intake among women (median (IQR): 230 (143,352) versus 303 (244,367) µg dietary folate equivalents (DFEs)/day) and especially VA among children (141 (64,279) versus 227 (102,369)). Qualitatively, however, the two tools were generally consistent in predicted subnational patterns of micronutrient adequacy and identification of effective and cost-effective (cost per child/WRA moving from inadequate to adequate intake) interventions. Secondary data and the MINIMOD-SD tool can provide policymakers with information to qualitatively assess deficiency risks and identify cost-effective interventions. However, accurately quantifying individual-level deficiency or dietary inadequacy and intervention effectiveness and cost-effectiveness will likely require individual-level dietary data and biomarker measurements.

Predicted Effects and Cost-Effectiveness of Wheat Flour Fortification for Reducing Micronutrient Deficiencies, Maternal Anemia, and Neural Tube Defects in Yaoundé and Douala, Cameroon.

BACKGROUND: Policy makers aiming to reduce micronutrient deficiencies (MNDs) and their health effects must choose among alternative definitions of impact when evaluating cost-effectiveness. OBJECTIVE: Estimate the cost-effectiveness of a mandatory wheat flour fortification program for reducing cases of MNDs (iron, zinc, folate, vitamin B12), anemia and neural tube defects (NTDs) averted, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted in urban Cameroon. METHODS: A 13-year predictive model was developed, including a 3-year start-up period and 10 years of program activity. Costs were estimated using historical program budgets. Effects were calculated based on observed changes in prevalence of MND and anemia 1 year postfortification and predicted reductions in NTDs based on NTD burden and wheat flour intake. Total DALYs averted were estimated for anemia and NTDs. RESULTS: The program cost ∼$2.4 million over 13 years and averted an estimated ∼95 000 cases of maternal anemia and ∼83 500 cases of iron deficiency among children after 1 year. Cost/case-year averted for MNDs ranged from $0.50 for low plasma folate to $3.30 for iron deficiency and was $2.20 for maternal anemia. The program was predicted to avert 1600 cases of NTDs over 10 years at ∼$1500 per case averted. Estimated cost/DALY averted was $50 for NTDs and $115 for anemia. CONCLUSIONS: In Cameroon, cost-effectiveness of wheat flour fortification varied by the measure of impact employed, but was classified as "very cost-effective" for all outcomes using World Health Organization criteria. Policy makers and their advisors must determine how best to use information on program costs and benefits to inform their decisions.

Review of Existing Models to Predict Reductions in Neural Tube Defects Due to Folic Acid Fortification and Model Results Using Data from Cameroon.

Several models have been developed to predict the effects of folic acid fortification programs on prevention of neural tube defects (NTDs), but each relies on different assumptions and data inputs. We identified and reviewed 7 models that predict the effects of folic acid intake or status on NTD risk. We applied 4 of these models [the original and a modified version of the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) and models developed by Arth et al. and Wald et al.] to predict the effect of folic acid fortification of wheat flour on reduction of NTDs using national survey data from Cameroon. The estimated percentage of NTDs averted due to fortified wheat flour (5.0 µg folic acid/g flour) varied by predictive model, with a 21-31% reduction in LiST to 83% in Arth's model, and 15% in Wald's model. As the simulated fortification level was increased from 1.0 to 7.0 µg folic acid/g flour, the pattern of change in estimated numbers of NTDs averted differed due to different model assumptions: the number of NTDs averted increased and then reached a plateau in the modified LiST model (as would be expected in real-world conditions), increased sharply in Arth's model, and increased continuously in Wald's model. This wide variation in predicted effects, and implausible results in some cases, undermines the models' utility for users of model outputs. Concurrent collection of dietary and biomarker data, including plasma and RBC folate concentrations, and NTD outcomes, is necessary to validate these models and monitor change in folic acid intake, folate-related biomarkers, and reduced NTD risk due to fortification. In the meantime, models based on erythrocyte folate concentration are recommended, based on biological plausibility and consistency with empirical evidence. Where erythrocyte folate data are unavailable, sensitivity analyses (using several models) could be conducted to examine the range of possible outcomes.

Comparing costs and cost-efficiency of platforms for micronutrient powder (MNP) delivery to children in rural Uganda.

Micronutrient powder (MNP) can reduce iron deficiency in young children, which has been well established in efficacy trials. However, the cost of different delivery platforms has not been determined. We calculated the cost and cost-efficiency of distributed MNP through community-based mechanisms and in health facilities in a primarily rural district in Uganda. An endline survey (n = 1072) identified reach and adherence. During the 9-month pilot, 37,458 (community platform) and 12,390 (facility platform) packets of MNP were distributed. Each packet consisted of 30 MNP sachets. In 2016, total costs were $277,082 (community platform, $0.24/sachet) and $221,568 (facility platform, $0.59/sachet). The cost per child reached was lower in the community platform ($53.24) than the facility platform ($65.97). The cost per child adhering to a protocol was $58.08 (community platform) and $72.69 (facility platform). The estimated cost of scaling up the community platform pilot to the district level over 3 years to cover approximately 17,890 children was $1.23 million (scale-up integrated into a partner agency program) to $1.62 million (government scale-up scenario). Unlike previous estimates, these included opportunity costs. Community-based MNP delivery costs were greater, yet more cost-efficient per child reached and adhering to protocol than facility-based delivery. However, total costs for untargeted MNP delivery under program settings are potentially prohibitive.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of 4 supplementary foods for treating moderate acute malnutrition: results from a cluster-randomized intervention trial in Sierra Leone.

BACKGROUND: Moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) affects 33 million children annually. Investments in formulations of corn-soy blended flours and lipid-based nutrient supplements have effectively improved MAM recovery rates. Information costs and cost-effectiveness differences are still needed. OBJECTIVES: We assessed recovery and sustained recovery rates of MAM children receiving a supplementary food: ready-to-use supplementary food (RUSF), corn soy whey blend with fortified vegetable oil (CSWB w/oil), or Super Cereal Plus with amylase (SC + A) compared to Corn Soy Blend Plus with fortified vegetable oil (CSB+ w/oil). We also estimated differences in costs and cost effectiveness of each supplement. METHODS: In Sierra Leone, we randomly assigned 29 health centers to provide a supplement containing 550 kcal/d for ∼12 wk to 2691 children with MAM aged 6-59 mo. We calculated cost per enrollee, cost per child who recovered, and cost per child who sustained recovery each from 2 perspectives: program perspective and caregiver perspective, combined. RESULTS: Of 2653 MAM children (98.6%) with complete data, 1676 children (63%) recovered. There were no significant differences in the odds of recovery compared to CSB+ w/oil [0.83 (95% CI: 0.64-1.08) for CSWB w/oil, 1.01 (95% CI: 0.78-1.3) for SC + A, 1.05 (95% CI: 0.82-1.34) for RUSF]. The odds of sustaining recovery were significantly lower for RUSF (0.7; 95% CI 0.49-0.99) but not CSWB w/oil or SC + A [1.08 (95% CI: 0.73-1.6) and 0.96 (95% CI: 0.67-1.4), respectively] when compared to CSB+ w/oil. Costs per enrollee [US dollars (USD)/child] ranged from $105/child in RUSF to $112/child in SC + A and costs per recovered child (USD/child) ranged from $163/child in RUSF to $179/child in CSWB w/oil, with overlapping uncertainty ranges. Costs were highest per sustained recovery (USD/child), ranging from $214/child with the CSB+ w/oil to $226/child with the SC + A, with overlapping uncertainty ranges. CONCLUSIONS: The 4 supplements performed similarly across recovery (but not sustained recovery) and costed measures. Analyses of posttreatment outcomes are necessary to estimate the full cost of MAM treatment. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT03146897.

Mobilising evidence, data, and resources to achieve global maternal and child undernutrition targets and the Sustainable Development Goals: an agenda for action.

As the world counts down to the 2025 World Health Assembly nutrition targets and the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, millions of women, children, and adolescents worldwide remain undernourished (underweight, stunted, and deficient in micronutrients), despite evidence on effective interventions and increasing political commitment to, and financial investment in, nutrition. The COVID-19 pandemic has crippled health systems, exacerbated household food insecurity, and reversed economic growth, which together could set back improvements in undernutrition across low-income and middle-income countries. This paper highlights how the evidence base for nutrition, health, food systems, social protection, and water, sanitation, and hygiene interventions has evolved since the 2013 Lancet Series on maternal and child nutrition and identifies the priority actions needed to regain and accelerate progress within the next decade. Policies and interventions targeting the first 1000 days of life, including some newly identified since 2013, require renewed commitment, implementation research, and increased funding from both domestic and global actors. A new body of evidence from national and state-level success stories in stunting reduction reinforces the crucial importance of multisectoral actions to address the underlying determinants of undernutrition and identifies key features of enabling political environments. To support these actions, well-resourced nutrition data and information systems are essential. The paper concludes with a call to action for the 2021 Nutrition for Growth Summit to unite global and national nutrition stakeholders around common priorities to tackle a large, unfinished undernutrition agenda-now amplified by the COVID-19 crisis.