Lung Cancer in the Mayak Workers Cohort: Risk Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis.

The workers at the Mayak nuclear facility near Ozyorsk, Russia are a primary source of information about exposure to radiation at low-dose rates, since they were subject to protracted exposures to external gamma rays and to internal exposures from plutonium inhalation. Here we re-examine lung cancer mortality rates and assess the effects of external gamma and internal plutonium exposures using recently developed Monte Carlo dosimetry systems. Using individual lagged mean annual lung doses computed from the dose realizations, we fit excess relative risk (ERR) models to the lung cancer mortality data for the Mayak Workers Cohort using risk-modeling software. We then used the corrected-information matrix (CIM) approach to widen the confidence intervals of ERR by taking into account the uncertainty in doses represented by multiple realizations from the Monte Carlo dosimetry systems. Findings of this work revealed that there were 930 lung cancer deaths during follow-up. Plutonium lung doses (but not gamma doses) were generally higher in the new dosimetry systems than those used in the previous analysis. This led to a reduction in the risk per unit dose compared to prior estimates. The estimated ERR/Gy for external gamma-ray exposure was 0.19 (95% CI: 0.07 to 0.31) for both sexes combined, while the ERR/Gy for internal exposures based on mean plutonium doses were 3.5 (95% CI: 2.3 to 4.6) and 8.9 (95% CI: 3.4 to 14) for males and females at attained age 60. Accounting for uncertainty in dose had little effect on the confidence intervals for the ERR associated with gamma-ray exposure, but had a marked impact on confidence intervals, particularly the upper bounds, for the effect of plutonium exposure [adjusted 95% CIs: 1.5 to 8.9 for males and 2.7 to 28 for females]. In conclusion, lung cancer rates increased significantly with both external gamma-ray and internal plutonium exposures. Accounting for the effects of dose uncertainty markedly increased the width of the confidence intervals for the plutonium dose response but had little impact on the external gamma dose effect estimate. Adjusting risk estimate confidence intervals using CIM provides a solution to the important problem of dose uncertainty. This work demonstrates, for the first time, that it is possible and practical to use our recently developed CIM method to make such adjustments in a large cohort study.

THE MAYAK WORKER DOSIMETRY SYSTEM (MWDS-2016): INTERNAL DOSIMETRY RESULTS AND COMPARISON WITH MWDS-2013.

Differences in results from the new Mayak Worker Dosimetry System (MWDS-2016) vs the previous MWDS-2013 are described. Statistical characteristics are shown for the distribution of accumulated absorbed doses to organs for 8340 workers with bioassay data. Differences in mean values of accumulated doses and their relative standard uncertainties calculated by MWDS-2016 and MWDS-2013 were analysed separately for various types of industrial compounds of plutonium, specifically nitrates, mixtures and oxides. Within the range of accumulated doses >1 mGy, lung doses for nitrates and mixtures decreased by 41 and 15%, respectively, and remained at the same level for oxides. Accumulated liver doses within the range >1 mGy increased for nitrates and mixtures by 13 and 8%, respectively, and decreased for oxides by 7%.

Retrospective estimation of Plutonium-239 doses from transfer to the fetus for Mayak PA workers.

PURPOSE: The estimation of plutonium fetal transfer and the calculation of individual in utero and postnatal doses for the Mayak Production Association (PA) offspring cohort. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The model developed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) for the transfer of plutonium to the fetus following maternal intakes before and during pregnancy has been adjusted for application to analysis of the fetal transfer of (239)Pu for Mayak workers. Improved estimates of fetal to maternal concentration ratios (CF:CM) have been obtained based on a correlation observed between adult offsprings' measured daily urine (239)Pu activity and estimates of their mothers' systemic activity at conception. Data on (239)Pu activity in daily urine samples were collected from 13 selected adults whose mothers worked at the Mayak PA facility during the period from 1948-1953, before and/or during pregnancy. RESULTS: A comparison of measured and modeled excretion data enabled a mean value of 0.18 ± 0.02 (n = 21) to be inferred for the Pu CF:CM ratio, with a coefficient of variation of 60%. CONCLUSIONS: Point estimates of the individual in utero and postnatal absorbed doses for the red bone marrow and liver were in the range 2…13 mGy in 95% of the cases for the cohort of 1936 offspring.

Mayak Worker Dosimetry System 2008 (MWDS-2008): assessment of internal dose from measurement results of plutonium activity in urine.

A new modification of the prior human lung compartment plutonium model, Doses-2005, has been described. The modified model was named "Mayak Worker Dosimetry System-2008" (MWDS-2008). In contrast to earlier models developed for workers at the Mayak Production Association (Mayak PA), the new model more correctly describes plutonium biokinetics and metabolism in pulmonary lymph nodes. The MWDS-2008 also provides two sets of doses estimates: one based on bioassay data and the other based on autopsy data, where available. The algorithm of internal dose calculation from autopsy data will be described in a separate paper. Results of comparative analyses of Doses-2005 and MWDS-2008 are provided. Perspectives on the further development of plutonium dosimetry are discussed.

Uncertainties analysis for the plutonium dosimetry model, doses-2005, using Mayak bioassay data.

The Doses-2005 model is a combination of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) models modified using data from the Mayak Production Association cohort. Surrogate doses from inhaled plutonium can be assigned to approximately 29% of the Mayak workers using their urine bioassay measurements and other history records. The purpose of this study was to quantify and qualify the uncertainties in the estimates for radiation doses calculated with the Doses-2005 model by using Monte Carlo methods and perturbation theory. The average uncertainty in the yearly dose estimates for most organs was approximately 100% regardless of the transportability classification. The relative source of the uncertainties comes from three main sources: 45% from the urine bioassay measurements, 29% from the Doses-2005 model parameters, and 26% from the reference masses for the organs. The most significant reduction in the overall dose uncertainties would result from improved methods in bioassay measurement with additional improvements generated through further model refinement. Additional uncertainties were determined for dose estimates resulting from changes in the transportability classification and the smoking toggle. A comparison was performed to determine the effect of using the model with data from either urine bioassay or autopsy data; no direct correlation could be established. Analysis of the model using autopsy data and incorporation of results from other research efforts that have utilized plutonium ICRP models could improve the Doses-2005 model and reduce the overall uncertainty in the dose estimates.

The development of the plutonium lung clearance model for exposure estimation of the Mayak production association, nuclear plant workers.

The purpose of this study was to develop a biokinetic model that uses urinary plutonium excretion rate data to estimate the plutonium accumulation in the human respiratory tract after occupational exposure. The model is based on autopsy and urinalysis data, specifically the plutonium distribution between the respiratory tract and the remainder of the body, taken from 543 former workers of a radiochemical facility at the Mayak Production Association (MPA) plant. The metabolism of plutonium was represented with a compartmental model, which considers individual exposure histories and the inherent solubility properties of industrial plutonium aerosols. The transport properties of plutonium-containing aerosols were estimated by experimentally defining their in vitro solubility. The in vitro solubilities were found by dialysis in a Ringer's solution. Analysis of the autopsy data indicated that a considerable fraction of the inhaled plutonium is systemically redistributed rapidly after inhalation. After the initial dynamic period, a three-compartment model describes the retention in the respiratory tract. One compartment describes the nuclide retained in the lungs, the second compartment describes a plutonium lung concentration that exponentially decreases with time, and the third compartment describes the concentration in the pulmonary lymph nodes. The model parameters were estimated by minimizing sum squared of the error between the tissue and bioassay data and the model results. The parameters reflect the inverse relationship between plutonium retention in lungs and the experimentally derived aerosol transportability. The model was validated by comparing the autopsy results with in vivo data for 347 cases. The validation indicates that the model parameters are unbiased. This model is being used to estimate individual levels of nuclide accumulation and to compute radiation doses based upon the urinary excretion rates.

The historical and current application of the FIB-1 model to assess organ dose from plutonium intakes in Mayak workers.

One of the objectives of the Joint Coordinating Committee for Radiation Effects Research Project 2.4 is to document the methodology used to determine the radiation doses in workers from the Mayak Production Association who were exposed to plutonium. The doses have been employed in numerous dose response studies measuring both stochastic and deterministic effects. This article documents both the historical (pre-1999) and current ("Doses 1999") methods used by the FIB-1 scientists to determine the doses. Both methods are based on a three-chamber lung model developed by the FIB-1 scientists. This method was developed in partial isolation from the West and has unique characteristics from the more familiar ICRP biokinetic models. Some of these characteristics are the use of empirically based transportability classifications and the parameter modification for chelation-therapy-enhanced excretion data. An example dose calculation is provided and compared to the dose that would be obtained if the ICRP models were used. The comparison demonstrates that the models are not interchangeable and produce different results.