Role of Clinical Insight at First Month in Predicting Relapse at the Year in First Episode of Psychosis (FEP) Patients.

INTRODUCTION: Clinical insight constitutes a useful marker of the progress and outcome of the First Episode of Psychosis (FEP), and lack of insight has been associated with more severe psychopathology, treatment non-adherence, and rehospitalization/relapse. In this study, we aimed to further investigate the possible role of insight as a predictor of relapse, its relation to diagnosis, and other parameters of positive psychotic symptomatology (delusions, hallucinations, and suspiciousness). METHODS: The Athens FEP study employed a prospective, longitudinal cohort design in which consecutive newly diagnosed patients with psychosis were interviewed and asked to voluntarily participate after completing informed consent. A total of 88/225 patients were examined at three different time points (baseline, month, and year). Their scores in the relevant items of the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) were compared (G12 for insight, P1 for delusions, P3 for hallucinations, and P6 for suspiciousness), and they were further associated to diagnosis and the outcome at the end of the year (remission/relapse). RESULTS: In total, 22/88 patients with relapse at the year had greater scores in G12 for both the month and the year, and this finding was corroborated after adjusting the statistical analysis for demographics, diagnosis, social environment, and depression via multiple logistic regression analysis. Moreover, delusions and suspiciousness were significantly higher in patients diagnosed with non-affective psychosis compared to those diagnosed with affective psychosis (p < 0.001) at the first month. CONCLUSIONS: Lack of insight at the first month may serve as a predictor of relapse at the year.

Prediction of Early Symptom Remission in Two Independent Samples of First-Episode Psychosis Patients Using Machine Learning.

BACKGROUND: Validated clinical prediction models of short-term remission in psychosis are lacking. Our aim was to develop a clinical prediction model aimed at predicting 4-6-week remission following a first episode of psychosis. METHOD: Baseline clinical data from the Athens First Episode Research Study was used to develop a Support Vector Machine prediction model of 4-week symptom remission in first-episode psychosis patients using repeated nested cross-validation. This model was further tested to predict 6-week remission in a sample of two independent, consecutive Danish first-episode cohorts. RESULTS: Of the 179 participants in Athens, 120 were male with an average age of 25.8 years and average duration of untreated psychosis of 32.8 weeks. 62.9% were antipsychotic-naïve. Fifty-seven percent attained remission after 4 weeks. In the Danish cohort, 31% attained remission. Eleven clinical scale items were selected in the Athens 4-week remission cohort. These included the Duration of Untreated Psychosis, Personal and Social Performance Scale, Global Assessment of Functioning and eight items from the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale. This model significantly predicted 4-week remission status (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) = 71.45, P < .0001). It also predicted 6-week remission status in the Danish cohort (ROC-AUC = 67.74, P < .0001), demonstrating reliability. CONCLUSIONS: Using items from common and validated clinical scales, our model significantly predicted early remission in patients with first-episode psychosis. Although replicated in an independent cohort, forward testing between machine learning models and clinicians' assessment should be undertaken to evaluate the possible utility as a routine clinical tool.

The relationship between early symptom severity, improvement and remission in first episode psychosis with jumping to conclusions.

It is suggested that Jumping To Conclusions (JTC) reasoning bias might contribute to the distortion of external reality. However, the association between psychotic manifestations and JTC is obscure, especially if general intelligence is considered as a mediator. The aim of this study is to investigate the relation between severity, early clinical improvement and remission of symptoms in First Episode Psychosis (FEP) with JTC as an explanatory factor. One hundred seventy-one FEP individuals were evaluated with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) at baseline and one month after treatment initiation. Clinical improvement was ascribed as symptom change one-month post-baseline measurements. Symptomatic remission was assessed with the Andreasen severity criteria and JTC with the Beads Task, operationalized through Draws To Decision (DTD) (the lower the number of DTD, the higher the JTC bias). Regarding symptoms severity, total psychotic, total positive psychotic, and hallucinations-item PANSS scores showed a negative association with JTC after controlling for IQ. Regarding early clinical improvement, the association with JTC was non-significant. No significant association was detected between one month remission status of FEP and JTC. Our findings indicate that severity of positive symptoms is not associated with hastiness in decision-making, but rather with a heightened conservatism in terms of increased data gathering. Further research is required to replicate the results and clarify the cognitive processes involved.

Organization framework and preliminary findings from the Athens First-Episode Psychosis Research Study.

AIMS: Athens First-Episode Psychosis (FEP) Research study, aims to explore the potential associations between multiple genetic, environmental and neurometabolic risk factors of psychotic disorders, through the clinical management of FEP patients with minimal exposure (<2 weeks) to antipsychotic treatment at entry. The goal of this paper is to introduce the background, rationale and design of the study and present its preliminary findings. METHODS: We developed a longitudinal cohort study of FEP patients 16-45 years old, presenting at the emergency units of five psychiatric hospitals across Athens, Greece. Research timeline includes baseline, 1-month and 1-year follow-up. Clinical, genetic, environmental, cognitive and biochemical parameters are measured, using psychometric tools, clinical interviews and laboratory tests. A descriptive analysis of baseline and 1-month assessments was performed including demographic characteristics, family history, medication, clinical picture, traumatic experiences, drug use and cognitive functioning. RESULTS: During the last 3 years, 130 subjects have been enrolled in the study. Data so far reveal that, despite the severity of baseline presentation, at 1-month the majority (57.4%) met the Andreasen symptom severity criteria for remission, without the time criterion and showed mild functional improvement. Several environmental adversities and poor cognitive performance were identified, which need to be further elaborated. CONCLUSIONS: Athens FEP Research study is the first gene-environment interaction study in Greece. In this article we introduce the organization and methodological framework of the project, along with its basic initial findings. Future analysis will allow the validation of tractable predictors and risk factors implicated in the development and outcome of psychosis.