Scattered tree death contributes to substantial forest loss in California.

In recent years, large-scale tree mortality events linked to global change have occurred around the world. Current forest monitoring methods are crucial for identifying mortality hotspots, but systematic assessments of isolated or scattered dead trees over large areas are needed to reduce uncertainty on the actual extent of tree mortality. Here, we mapped individual dead trees in California using sub-meter resolution aerial photographs from 2020 and deep learning-based dead tree detection. We identified 91.4 million dead trees over 27.8 million hectares of vegetated areas (16.7-24.7% underestimation bias when compared to field data). Among these, a total of 19.5 million dead trees appeared isolated, and 60% of all dead trees occurred in small groups ( ≤ 3 dead trees within a 30 × 30 m grid), which is largely undetected by other state-level monitoring methods. The widespread mortality of individual trees impacts the carbon budget and sequestration capacity of California forests and can be considered a threat to forest health and a fuel source for future wildfires.

Evidence-based advice on timing and location of tsetse control measures in Shimba Hills National reserve, Kenya.

Controlling tsetse flies is critical for effective management of African trypanosomiasis in Sub-Saharan Africa. To enhance timely and targeted deployment of tsetse control strategies a better understanding of their temporal dynamics is paramount. A few empirical studies have explained and predicted tsetse numbers across space and time, but the resulting models may not easily scale to other areas. We used tsetse catches from 160 traps monitored between 2017 and 2019 around Shimba Hills National Reserve in Kenya, a known tsetse and trypanosomiasis hotspot. Traps were divided into two groups: proximal (<1.0 km)) to and distant (> 1.0 km) from the outer edge of the reserve boundary. We fitted zero-inflated Poisson and generalized linear regression models for each group using as temporal predictors rainfall, NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), and LST (land surface temperature). For each predictor, we assessed their relationship with tsetse abundance using time lags from 10 days up to 60 days before the last tsetse collection date of each trap. Tsetse numbers decreased as distance from the outside of reserve increased. Proximity to croplands, grasslands, woodlands, and the reserve boundary were the key predictors for proximal traps. Tsetse numbers rose after a month of increased rainfall and the following increase in NDVI values but started to decline if the rains persisted beyond a month for distant traps. Specifically, tsetse flies were more abundant in areas with NDVI values greater than 0.7 for the distant group. The study suggests that tsetse control efforts beyond 1.0 km of the reserve boundary should be implemented after a month of increased rains in areas having NDVI values greater than 0.7. To manage tsetse flies effectively within a 1.0 km radius of the reserve boundary, continuous measures such as establishing an insecticide-treated trap or target barrier around the reserve boundary are needed.

Satellite-based modelling of potential tsetse (Glossina pallidipes) breeding and foraging sites using teneral and non-teneral fly occurrence data.

BACKGROUND: African trypanosomiasis, which is mainly transmitted by tsetse flies (Glossina spp.), is a threat to public health and a significant hindrance to animal production. Tools that can reduce tsetse densities and interrupt disease transmission exist, but their large-scale deployment is limited by high implementation costs. This is in part limited by the absence of knowledge of breeding sites and dispersal data, and tools that can predict these in the absence of ground-truthing. METHODS: In Kenya, tsetse collections were carried out in 261 randomized points within Shimba Hills National Reserve (SHNR) and villages up to 5 km from the reserve boundary between 2017 and 2019. Considering their limited dispersal rate, we used in situ observations of newly emerged flies that had not had a blood meal (teneral) as a proxy for active breeding locations. We fitted commonly used species distribution models linking teneral and non-teneral tsetse presence with satellite-derived vegetation cover type fractions, greenness, temperature, and soil texture and moisture indices separately for the wet and dry season. Model performance was assessed with area under curve (AUC) statistics, while the maximum sum of sensitivity and specificity was used to classify suitable breeding or foraging sites. RESULTS: Glossina pallidipes flies were caught in 47% of the 261 traps, with teneral flies accounting for 37% of these traps. Fitted models were more accurate for the teneral flies (AUC = 0.83) as compared to the non-teneral (AUC = 0.73). The probability of teneral fly occurrence increased with woodland fractions but decreased with cropland fractions. During the wet season, the likelihood of teneral flies occurring decreased as silt content increased. Adult tsetse flies were less likely to be trapped in areas with average land surface temperatures below 24 °C. The models predicted that 63% of the potential tsetse breeding area was within the SHNR, but also indicated potential breeding pockets outside the reserve. CONCLUSION: Modelling tsetse occurrence data disaggregated by life stages with time series of satellite-derived variables enabled the spatial characterization of potential breeding and foraging sites for G. pallidipes. Our models provide insight into tsetse bionomics and aid in characterising tsetse infestations and thus prioritizing control areas.

Long-term assessment of ecosystem services at ecological restoration sites using Landsat time series.

Reversing ecological degradation through restoration activities is a key societal challenge of the upcoming decade. However, lack of evidence on the effectiveness of restoration interventions leads to inconsistent, delayed, or poorly informed statements of success, hindering the wise allocation of resources, representing a missed opportunity to learn from previous experiences. This study contributes to a better understanding of spatial and temporal dynamics of ecosystem services at ecological restoration sites. We developed a method using Landsat satellite images combined with a Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI) design, and applied this to an arid rural landscape, the Baviaanskloof in South Africa. Since 1990, various restoration projects have been implemented to halt and reverse degradation. We applied the BACI approach at pixel-level comparing the conditions of each intervened pixel (impact) with 20 similar control pixels. By evaluating the conditions before and after the restoration intervention, we assessed the effectiveness of long-term restoration interventions distinguishing their impact from environmental temporal changes. The BACI approach was implemented with Landsat images that cover a 30-year period at a spatial resolution of 30 meter. We evaluated the impact of three interventions (revegetation, livestock exclusion, and the combination of both) on three ecosystem services; forage provision, erosion prevention, and presence of iconic vegetation. We also evaluated whether terrain characteristics could partially explain the variation in impact of interventions. The resulting maps showed spatial patterns of positive and negative effects of interventions on ecosystem services. Intervention effectiveness differed across vegetation conditions, terrain aspect, and soil parent material. Our method allows for spatially explicit quantification of the long-term restoration impact on ecosystem service supply, and for the detailed visualization of impact across an area. This pixel-level analysis is specifically suited for heterogeneous landscapes, where restoration impact not only varies between but also within restoration sites.

Comparing land surface phenology of major European crops as derived from SAR and multispectral data of Sentinel-1 and -2.

The frequent acquisitions of fine spatial resolution imagery (10 m) offered by recent multispectral satellite missions, including Sentinel-2, can resolve single agricultural fields and thus provide crop-specific phenology metrics, a crucial information for crop monitoring. However, effective phenology retrieval may still be hampered by significant cloud cover. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observations are not restricted by weather conditions, and Sentinel-1 thus ensures more frequent observations of the land surface. However, these data have not been systematically exploited for phenology retrieval so far. In this study, we extracted crop-specific land surface phenology (LSP) from Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 of major European crops (common and durum wheat, barley, maize, oats, rape and turnip rape, sugar beet, sunflower, and dry pulses) using ground-truth information from the "Copernicus module" of the Land Use/Cover Area frame statistical Survey (LUCAS) of 2018. We consistently used a single model-fit approach to retrieve LSP metrics on temporal profiles of CR (Cross Ratio, the ratio of the backscattering coefficient VH/VV from Sentinel-1) and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index from Sentinel-2). Our analysis revealed that LSP retrievals from Sentinel-1 are comparable to those of Sentinel-2, particularly for winter crops. The start of season (SOS) timings, as derived from Sentinel-1 and -2, are significantly correlated (average r of 0.78 for winter and 0.46 for summer crops). The correlation is lower for end of season retrievals (EOS, r of 0.62 and 0.34). Agreement between LSP derived from Sentinel-1 and -2 varies among crop types, ranging from r = 0.89 and mean absolute error MAE = 10 days (SOS of dry pulses) to r = 0.15 and MAE = 53 days (EOS of sugar beet). Observed deviations revealed that Sentinel-1 and -2 LSP retrievals can be complementary; for example for winter crops we found that SAR detected the start of the spring growth while multispectral data is sensitive to the vegetative growth before and during winter. To test if our results correspond reasonably to in-situ data, we compared average crop-specific LSP for Germany to average phenology from ground phenological observations of 2018 gathered from the German Meteorological Service (DWD). Our study demonstrated that both Sentinel-1 and -2 can provide relevant and at times complementary LSP information at field- and crop-level.

Mapping Geospatial Processes Affecting the Environmental Fate of Agricultural Pesticides in Africa.

The application of agricultural pesticides in Africa can have negative effects on human health and the environment. The aim of this study was to identify African environments that are vulnerable to the accumulation of pesticides by mapping geospatial processes affecting pesticide fate. The study modelled processes associated with the environmental fate of agricultural pesticides using publicly available geospatial datasets. Key geospatial processes affecting the environmental fate of agricultural pesticides were selected after a review of pesticide fate models and maps for leaching, surface runoff, sedimentation, soil storage and filtering capacity, and volatilization were created. The potential and limitations of these maps are discussed. We then compiled a database of studies that measured pesticide residues in Africa. The database contains 10,076 observations, but only a limited number of observations remained when a standard dataset for one compound was extracted for validation. Despite the need for more in-situ data on pesticide residues and application, this study provides a first spatial overview of key processes affecting pesticide fate that can be used to identify areas potentially vulnerable to pesticide accumulation.

Predictive Factors and Risk Mapping for Rift Valley Fever Epidemics in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: To-date, Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks have occurred in 38 of the 69 administrative districts in Kenya. Using surveillance records collected between 1951 and 2007, we determined the risk of exposure and outcome of an RVF outbreak, examined the ecological and climatic factors associated with the outbreaks, and used these data to develop an RVF risk map for Kenya. METHODS: Exposure to RVF was evaluated as the proportion of the total outbreak years that each district was involved in prior epizootics, whereas risk of outcome was assessed as severity of observed disease in humans and animals for each district. A probability-impact weighted score (1 to 9) of the combined exposure and outcome risks was used to classify a district as high (score ≥ 5) or medium (score ≥2 - <5) risk, a classification that was subsequently subjected to expert group analysis for final risk level determination at the division levels (total = 391 divisions). Divisions that never reported RVF disease (score < 2) were classified as low risk. Using data from the 2006/07 RVF outbreak, the predictive risk factors for an RVF outbreak were identified. The predictive probabilities from the model were further used to develop an RVF risk map for Kenya. RESULTS: The final output was a RVF risk map that classified 101 of 391 divisions (26%) located in 21 districts as high risk, and 100 of 391 divisions (26%) located in 35 districts as medium risk and 190 divisions (48%) as low risk, including all 97 divisions in Nyanza and Western provinces. The risk of RVF was positively associated with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), low altitude below 1000m and high precipitation in areas with solonertz, luvisols and vertisols soil types (p <0.05). CONCLUSION: RVF risk map serves as an important tool for developing and deploying prevention and control measures against the disease.

Constructing boundary-consistent population time series for the municipalities of the Netherlands, 1988-2011.

Frequent spatial reorganization of administrative units is common in many countries. It may comprise the merging or division of spatial units, or boundary changes between units. These reorganizations prevent the effective assessment of longer-term population dynamics at a detailed spatial level. To deal with this problem in the Netherlands, we developed a new temporal correction method for the populations of municipalities. Rather than estimating the affected population, we used existing data on the number of persons affected by each spatial change. We assumed that before any boundary changes took place, population development was spatially uniform within a municipality. Systematically transferring proportions of the population from original to newly defined target municipalities back in time provided a corrected time series for 1988-2011, based on the 2011 municipal boundaries. Overall, our results correspond well with a detailed reconstruction for 1999-2009 based on data for individual households. Our procedure may be applicable in other countries with effective population registration systems.