Will borealization of Arctic tundra herbivore communities be driven by climate warming or vegetation change?

Poleward shifts in species distributions are expected and frequently observed with a warming climate. In Arctic ecosystems, the strong warming trends are associated with increasing greenness and shrubification. Vertebrate herbivores have the potential to limit greening and shrub advance and expansion on the tundra, posing the question of whether changes in herbivore communities could partly mediate the impacts of climate warming on Arctic tundra. Therefore, future changes in the herbivore community in the Arctic tundra will depend on whether the community tracks the changing climates directly (i.e. occurs in response to temperature) or indirectly, in response to vegetation changes (which can be modified by trophic interactions). In this study, we used biogeographic and remotely sensed data to quantify spatial variation in vertebrate herbivore communities across the boreal forest and Arctic tundra biomes. We then tested whether present-day herbivore community structure is determined primarily by temperature or vegetation. We demonstrate that vertebrate herbivore communities are significantly more diverse in the boreal forest than in the Arctic tundra in terms of species richness, phylogenetic diversity and functional diversity. A clear shift in community structure was observed at the biome boundary, with stronger northward declines in diversity in the Arctic tundra. Interestingly, important functional traits characterizing the role of herbivores in limiting tundra vegetation change, such as body mass and woody plant feeding, did not show threshold changes across the biome boundary. Temperature was a more important determinant of herbivore community structure across these biomes than vegetation productivity or woody plant cover. Thus, our study does not support the premise that herbivore-driven limitation of Arctic tundra shrubification or greening would limit herbivore community change in the tundra. Instead, borealization of tundra herbivore communities is likely to result from the direct effect of climate warming.

Herbivory and climate as drivers of woody plant growth: Do deer decrease the impacts of warming?

Vegetation at ecotone transitions between open and forested areas is often heavily affected by two key processes: climate change and management of large herbivore densities. These both drive woody plant state shifts, determining the location and the nature of the limit between open and tree or shrub-dominated landscapes. In order to adapt management to prevailing and future climate, we need to understand how browsing and climatic factors together affect the growth of plants at biome borders. To disentangle herbivory and climate effects, we combined long-term tree growth monitoring and dendroecology to investigate woody plant growth under different temperatures and red deer (Cervus elaphus) herbivory pressures at forest-moorland ecotones in the Scottish highlands. Reforestation and deer densities are core and conflicting management concerns in the area, and there is an urgent need for additional knowledge. We found that deer herbivory and climate had significant and interactive effects on tree growth: in the presence of red deer, pine (Pinus sylvestris) growth responded more strongly to annual temperature than in the absence of deer, possibly reflecting differing plant-plant competition and facilitation conditions. As expected, pine growth was negatively related to deer density and positively to temperature. However, at the tree population level, warming decreased growth when more than 60% of shoots were browsed. Heather (Calluna vulgaris) growth was negatively related to temperature and the direction of the response to deer switched from negative to positive when mean annual temperatures fell below 6.0°C. In addition, our models allow estimates to be made of how woody plant growth responds under specific combinations of temperature and herbivory, and show how deer management can be adapted to predicted climatic changes in order to more effectively achieve reforestation goals. Our results support the hypothesis that temperature and herbivory have interactive effects on woody plant growth, and thus accounting for just one of these two factors is insufficient for understanding plant growth mechanics at biome transitions. Furthermore, we show that climate-driven woody plant growth increases can be negated by herbivory.

Cool as a moose: How can browsing counteract climate warming effects across boreal forest ecosystems?

Herbivory has potential to modify vegetation responses to climatic changes. However, climate and herbivory also affect each other, and rarely work in isolation from other ecological factors, such as plant-plant competition. Thus, it is challenging to predict the extent to which herbivory can counteract, amplify, or interact with climate impacts on ecosystems. Here, we investigate how moose modify climatic responses of boreal trees by using experimental exclosures on two continents and modeling complex causal pathways including several climatic factors, multiple tree species, competition, tree height, time, food availability, and herbivore presence, density, and browsing intensity. We show that moose can counteract, that is, "cool down" positive temperature responses of trees, but that this effect varies between species depending on moose foraging preferences. Growth of preferred deciduous trees was strongly affected by moose, whereas growth of less preferred conifers was mostly driven by climate and tree height. In addition, moose changed temperature responses of rowan in Norway and balsam fir in Canada, by making fir more responsive to temperature but decreasing the strength of the temperature response of rowan. Snow protected trees from browsing, and therefore moose "cooling power" might increase should a warming climate result in decreased snow cover. Furthermore, we found evidence of indirect effects of moose via plant-plant competition: By constraining growth of competing trees, moose can contribute positively to the growth of other trees. Our study shows that in boreal forests, herbivory cooling power is highly context dependent, and in order to understand its potential to prevent changes induced by warming climate, species differences, snow, competition, and climate effects on browsing need to be considered.

Open tundra persist, but arctic features decline-Vegetation changes in the warming Fennoscandian tundra.

In the forest-tundra ecotone of the North Fennoscandian inland, summer and winter temperatures have increased by two to three centigrades since 1965, which is expected to result in major vegetation changes. To document the expected expansion of woodlands and scrublands and its impact on the arctic vegetation, we repeated a vegetation transect study conducted in 1976 in the Darju, spanning from woodland to a summit, 200 m above the tree line. Contrary to our expectations, tree line movement was not detected, and there was no increase in willows or shrubby mountain birches, either. Nevertheless, the stability of tundra was apparent. Small-sized, poorly competing arctic species had declined, lichen cover had decreased, and vascular plants, especially evergreen ericoid dwarf shrubs, had gained ground. The novel climate seems to favour competitive clonal species and species thriving in closed vegetation, creating a community hostile for seedling establishment, but equally hostile for many arctic species, too. Preventing trees and shrubs from invading the tundra is thus not sufficient for conserving arctic biota in the changing climate. The only dependable cure is to stop the global warming.