Use of isotopes in examining precipitation patterns in north-central Ukraine.

North-central Ukraine is vulnerable to temperature increases and precipitation pattern changes associated with climate change. With water management becoming increasingly important, information on current water sources and moisture recycling is critically needed. Isotope ratios of oxygen (δ18O) and hydrogen (δ2H) in precipitation are sensitive to these variables and allow comparisons across the region. The δ2H and δ18O values from collected precipitation in Kyiv and Cherkasy in 2020 and published 3H data for Kyiv from the year 2000 show an influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and provide information about processes affecting precipitation along the storm trajectory. The δ18O values also show a correlation with temperature, indicating that precipitation patterns may be affected by the rising temperatures in the region, as predicted by recent regional studies using Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios and the global climate model GFDL-ESM2M. When compared to backtracked storm trajectory and NAO data, clear relationships emerged between water isotope ratios, storm paths, and likely moisture recycling. Overall, δ2H, δ18O, 3H, and backtracked storm trajectory data provide more regional and local information on water vapour processes, improving climate-change-driven precipitation forecasts in Ukraine.

Variation of tap-water isotope ratios and municipal water sources across Kyiv city, Ukraine.

Stable isotopes of water allow researchers to examine water pathways and better understand spatial and temporal variability in mixtures of municipal water sources. In regions such as Kyiv (Ukraine), with a water supply that is vulnerable to the effects of climate change, pollution, and geopolitical conflict, such understanding is critical for effective water management. Trends in stable isotope values and water sources can function as a confirmation of municipal data. Additionally, these data can provide an early signal for the effects of climate change on these sources, reducing uncertainty from physical measurements. For this study, tap water, surface water, and groundwater were collected over 14 months in Kyiv and nearby Boryspil, Brovary, and Boyarka and measured for hydrogen (δ2H) and oxygen (δ18O) stable isotopes. The stable isotope values from the tap water for each district show a general seasonal trend in water sources, with more groundwater used in the supply in the winter for most districts. Spatially, groundwater use increases from south to north in the left-bank districts in Kyiv city and groundwater use generally decreases from south to north in the right-bank districts. As precipitation patterns shift and temperatures increase, the reliance on particular water sources may need to shift as well. Overall, δ2H and δ18O data provide a baseline expectancy for current water use throughout the year and, from this, deviations can be assessed early. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s43832-022-00021-x.