The geography of climate and the global patterns of species diversity.

Climate's effect on global biodiversity is typically viewed through the lens of temperature, humidity and resulting ecosystem productivity1-6. However, it is not known whether biodiversity depends solely on these climate conditions, or whether the size and fragmentation of these climates are also crucial. Here we shift the common perspective in global biodiversity studies, transitioning from geographic space to a climate-defined multidimensional space. Our findings suggest that larger and more isolated climate conditions tend to harbour higher diversity and species turnover among terrestrial tetrapods, encompassing more than 30,000 species. By considering both the characteristics of climate itself and its geographic attributes, we can explain almost 90% of the variation in global species richness. Half of the explanatory power (45%) may be attributed either to climate itself or to the geography of climate, suggesting a nuanced interplay between them. Our work evolves the conventional idea that larger climate regions, such as the tropics, host more species primarily because of their size7,8. Instead, we underscore the integral roles of both the geographic extent and degree of isolation of climates. This refined understanding presents a more intricate picture of biodiversity distribution, which can guide our approach to biodiversity conservation in an ever-changing world.

Accelerated body size evolution in upland environments is correlated with recent speciation in South American freshwater fishes.

Speciation rates vary greatly among taxa and regions and are shaped by both biotic and abiotic factors. However, the relative importance and interactions of these factors are not well understood. Here we investigate the potential drivers of speciation rates in South American freshwater fishes, the most diverse continental vertebrate fauna, by examining the roles of multiple biotic and abiotic factors. We integrate a dataset on species geographic distribution, phylogenetic, morphological, climatic, and habitat data. We find that Late Neogene-Quaternary speciation events are strongly associated with body-size evolution, particularly in lineages with small body sizes that inhabit higher elevations near the continental periphery. Conversely, the effects of temperature, area, and diversity-dependence, often thought to facilitate speciation, are negligible. By evaluating multiple factors simultaneously, we demonstrate that habitat characteristics associated with elevation, as well as body size evolution, correlate with rapid speciation in South American freshwater fishes. Our study emphasizes the importance of integrative approaches that consider the interplay of biotic and abiotic factors in generating macroecological patterns of species diversity.

Interannual climate variability improves niche estimates for ectothermic but not endothermic species.

Climate is an important limiting factor of species' niches and it is therefore regularly included in ecological applications such as species distribution models (SDMs). Climate predictors are often used in the form of long-term mean values, yet many species experience wide climatic variation over their lifespan and within their geographical range which is unlikely captured by long-term means. Further, depending on their physiology, distinct groups of species cope with climate variability differently. Ectothermic species, which are directly dependent on the thermal environment are expected to show a different response to temporal or spatial variability in temperature than endothermic groups that can decouple their internal temperature from that of their surroundings. Here, we explore the degree to which spatial variability and long-term temporal variability in temperature and precipitation change niche estimates for ectothermic (730 amphibian, 1276 reptile), and endothermic (1961 mammal) species globally. We use three different species distribution modelling (SDM) algorithms to quantify the effect of spatial and temporal climate variability, based on global range maps of all species and climate data from 1979 to 2013. All SDMs were cross-validated and accessed for their performance using the Area under the Curve (AUC) and the True Skill Statistic (TSS). The mean performance of SDMs using only climatic means as predictors was TSS = 0.71 and AUC = 0.90. The inclusion of spatial variability offers a significant gain in SDM performance (mean TSS = 0.74, mean AUC = 0.92), as does the inclusion of temporal variability (mean TSS = 0.80, mean AUC = 0.94). Including both spatial and temporal variability in SDMs shows the highest scores in AUC and TSS. Accounting for temporal rather than spatial variability in climate improved the SDM prediction especially in ectotherm groups such as amphibians and reptiles, while for endothermic mammals no such improvement was observed. These results indicate that including long term climate interannual climate variability into niche estimations matters most for ectothermic species that cannot decouple their physiology from the surrounding environment as endothermic species can.

Diel niche partitioning of a plant-hummingbird network in the Atlantic forest of Brazil.

Niche partitioning is an important mechanism that allows species to coexist. Within mutualistic interaction networks, diel niche partitioning, i.e., partitioning of resources throughout the day, has been neglected. We explored diel niche partitioning of a plant-hummingbird network in the Brazilian Atlantic forest for nine months. To evaluate diel patterns of hummingbird visits and nectar production, we used time-lapse cameras on focal flowers and repeated nectar volume and concentration measures, respectively. Additionally, we measured flower abundance around focal flowers and flower morphological traits. We did not observe diel partitioning for either hummingbirds or plants. Instead, hummingbirds appeared to specialize in different plant species, consistent with trophic niche partitioning, potentially resulting from competition. In contrast, plant species that co-flowered and shared hummingbird visits produced nectar during similar times, consistent with facilitation. Our focus on the fine-scale temporal pattern revealed that plants and hummingbirds appear to have different strategies for promoting co-existence.

Morphology and niche evolution influence hummingbird speciation rates.

How traits affect speciation is a long-standing question in evolution. We investigate whether speciation rates are affected by the traits themselves or by the rates of their evolution, in hummingbirds, a clade with great variation in speciation rates, morphology and ecological niches. Further, we test two opposing hypotheses, postulating that speciation rates are promoted by trait conservatism or, alternatively, by trait divergence. To address these questions, we analyse morphological (body mass and bill length) and niche traits (temperature and precipitation position and breadth, and mid-elevation), using a variety of methods to estimate speciation rates and correlate them with traits and their evolutionary rates. When it comes to the traits, we find faster speciation in smaller hummingbirds with shorter bills, living at higher elevations and experiencing greater temperature ranges. As for the trait evolutionary rates, we find that speciation increases with rates of divergence in the niche traits, but not in the morphological traits. Together, these results reveal the interplay of mechanisms through which different traits and their evolutionary rates (conservatism or divergence) influence the origination of hummingbird diversity.

Landscape dynamics and diversification of the megadiverse South American freshwater fish fauna.

Landscape dynamics are widely thought to govern the tempo and mode of continental radiations, yet the effects of river network rearrangements on dispersal and lineage diversification remain poorly understood. We integrated an unprecedented occurrence dataset of 4,967 species with a newly compiled, time-calibrated phylogeny of South American freshwater fishes-the most species-rich continental vertebrate fauna on Earth-to track the evolutionary processes associated with hydrogeographic events over 100 Ma. Net lineage diversification was heterogeneous through time, across space, and among clades. Five abrupt shifts in net diversification rates occurred during the Paleogene and Miocene (between 30 and 7 Ma) in association with major landscape evolution events. Net diversification accelerated from the Miocene to the Recent (c. 20 to 0 Ma), with Western Amazonia having the highest rates of in situ diversification, which led to it being an important source of species dispersing to other regions. All regional biotic interchanges were associated with documented hydrogeographic events and the formation of biogeographic corridors, including the Early Miocene (c. 23 to 16 Ma) uplift of the Serra do Mar and Serra da Mantiqueira and the Late Miocene (c. 10 Ma) uplift of the Northern Andes and associated formation of the modern transcontinental Amazon River. The combination of high diversification rates and extensive biotic interchange associated with Western Amazonia yielded its extraordinary contemporary richness and phylogenetic endemism. Our results support the hypothesis that landscape dynamics, which shaped the history of drainage basin connections, strongly affected the assembly and diversification of basin-wide fish faunas.

Re-thinking the environment in landscape genomics.

Detecting the extrinsic selective pressures shaping genomic variation is critical for a better understanding of adaptation and for forecasting evolutionary responses of natural populations to changing environmental conditions. With increasing availability of geo-referenced environmental data, landscape genomics provides unprecedented insights into how genomic variation and underlying gene functions affect traits potentially under selection. Yet, the robustness of genotype-environment associations used in landscape genomics remains tempered due to various limitations, including the characteristics of environmental data used, sampling designs employed, and statistical frameworks applied. Here, we argue that using complementary or new environmental data sources and well-informed sampling designs may help improve the detection of selective pressures underlying patterns of local adaptation in various organisms and environments.

Seasonal structure of interactions enhances multidimensional stability of mutualistic networks.

Community ecologists have made great advances in understanding how natural communities can be both diverse and stable by studying communities as interaction networks. However, focus has been on interaction networks aggregated over time, neglecting the consequences of the seasonal organization of interactions (hereafter 'seasonal structure') for community stability. Here, we extended previous theoretical findings on the topic in two ways: (i) by integrating empirical seasonal structure of 11 plant-hummingbird communities into dynamic models, and (ii) by tackling multiple facets of network stability together. We show that, in a competition context, seasonal structure enhances community stability by allowing diverse and resilient communities while preserving their robustness to species extinctions. The positive effects of empirical seasonal structure on network stability vanished when using randomized seasonal structures, suggesting that eco-evolutionary dynamics produce stabilizing seasonal structures. We also show that the effects of seasonal structure on community stability are mainly mediated by changes in network structure and productivity, suggesting that the seasonal structure of a community is an important and yet neglected aspect in the diversity-stability and diversity-productivity debates.

Plot size matters: Toward comparable species richness estimates across plot-based inventories.

To understand the state and trends in biodiversity beyond the scope of monitoring programs, biodiversity indicators must be comparable across inventories. Species richness (SR) is one of the most widely used biodiversity indicators. However, as SR increases with the size of the area sampled, inventories using different plot sizes are hardly comparable. This study aims at producing a methodological framework that enables SR comparisons across plot-based inventories with differing plot sizes. We used National Forest Inventory (NFI) data from Norway, Slovakia, Spain, and Switzerland to build sample-based rarefaction curves by randomly incrementally aggregating plots, representing the relationship between SR and sampled area. As aggregated plots can be far apart and subject to different environmental conditions, we estimated the amount of environmental heterogeneity (EH) introduced in the aggregation process. By correcting for this EH, we produced adjusted rarefaction curves mimicking the sampling of environmentally homogeneous forest stands, thus reducing the effect of plot size and enabling reliable SR comparisons between inventories. Models were built using the Conway-Maxell-Poisson distribution to account for the underdispersed SR data. Our method successfully corrected for the EH introduced during the aggregation process in all countries, with better performances in Norway and Switzerland. We further found that SR comparisons across countries based on the country-specific NFI plot sizes are misleading, and that our approach offers an opportunity to harmonize pan-European SR monitoring. Our method provides reliable and comparable SR estimates for inventories that use different plot sizes. Our approach can be applied to any plot-based inventory and count data other than SR, thus allowing a more comprehensive assessment of biodiversity across various scales and ecosystems.

Analysing the quality of Swiss National Forest Inventory measurements of woody species richness.

BACKGROUND: Under ongoing climate and land-use change, biodiversity is continuously decreasing and monitoring biodiversity is becoming increasingly important. National Forest Inventory (NFI) programmes provide valuable time-series data on biodiversity and thus contribute to assessments of the state and trends in biodiversity, as well as ecosystem functioning. Data quality in this context is of paramount relevance, particularly for ensuring a meaningful interpretation of changes. The Swiss NFI revisits about 8%-10% of its sample plots regularly in repeat surveys to supervise the quality of fieldwork. METHODS: We analysed the relevance of observer bias with equivalence tests, examined data quality objectives defined by the Swiss NFI instructors, and calculated the pseudo-turnover (PT) of species composition, that is, the percentage of species not observed by both teams. Three attributes of woody species richness from the latest Swiss NFI cycles (3 and 4) were analysed: occurrence of small tree and shrub species (1) on the sample plot and (2) at the forest edge, and (3) main shrub and trees species in the upper storey. RESULTS: We found equivalent results between regular and repeat surveys for all attributes. Data quality, however, was significantly below expectations in all cases, that is, as much as 20%-30% below the expected data quality limit of 70%-80% (proportion of observations that should not deviate from a predefined threshold). PT values were about 10%-20%, and the PT of two out of three attributes decreased significantly in NFI4. This type of uncertainty - typically caused by a mixture of overlooking and misidentifying species - should be considered carefully when interpreting change figures on species richness estimates from NFI data. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide important information on the data quality achieved in Swiss NFIs in terms of the reproducibility of the collected data. The three applied approaches proved to be effective for evaluating the quality of plot-level species richness and composition data in forest inventories and other biodiversity monitoring programmes. As such, they could also be recommended for assessing the quality of biodiversity indices derived from monitoring data.

Disentangling the effects of geographic peripherality and habitat suitability on neutral and adaptive genetic variation in Swiss stone pine.

It is generally accepted that the spatial distribution of neutral genetic diversity within a species' native range mostly depends on effective population size, demographic history, and geographic position. However, it is unclear how genetic diversity at adaptive loci correlates with geographic peripherality or with habitat suitability within the ecological niche. Using exome-wide genomic data and distribution maps of the Alpine range, we first tested whether geographic peripherality correlates with four measures of population genetic diversity at > 17,000 SNP loci in 24 Alpine populations (480 individuals) of Swiss stone pine (Pinus cembra) from Switzerland. To distinguish between neutral and adaptive SNP sets, we used four approaches (two gene diversity estimates, FST outlier test, and environmental association analysis) that search for signatures of selection. Second, we established ecological niche models for P. cembra in the study range and investigated how habitat suitability correlates with genetic diversity at neutral and adaptive loci. All estimates of neutral genetic diversity decreased with geographic peripherality, but were uncorrelated with habitat suitability. However, heterozygosity (He ) at adaptive loci based on Tajima's D declined significantly with increasingly suitable conditions. No other diversity estimates at adaptive loci were correlated with habitat suitability. Our findings suggest that populations at the edge of a species' geographic distribution harbour limited neutral genetic diversity due to demographic properties. Moreover, we argue that populations from suitable habitats went through strong selection processes, are thus well adapted to local conditions, and therefore exhibit reduced genetic diversity at adaptive loci compared to populations at niche margins.

The Geography of Ecological Niche Evolution in Mammals.

Convergent adaptive evolution of species' ecological niches-i.e., the appearance of similar niches in independent lineages-is the result of natural selection acting on niche-related species traits ("traits" hereafter) and contrasts with neutral evolution [1-4]. Although trait convergences are recognized as being of importance at the species scale, we still know little about the impact of species convergence on the overall trait and niche structure of entire biotas at large spatial scales [5]. Here, we map the convergent evolution of four traits (diet, body mass, activity cycle, and foraging strata) for mammal species and assemblages (defined at 200 × 200 km resolution) at a global scale. Using data on the geographic distributions, traits, and phylogenetic relationships of species and by comparing observed patterns of trait ß-diversity to evolutionary neutral expectations, we show that trait convergence is not restricted to particular lineages but scales up to entire assemblages (i.e., whole species communities). We find region-wide biota convergence in traits between regions with similar climates, particularly between Australia and other continents. Pairs of assemblages that show trait divergence often involves Arctic regions where rapid evolutionary changes occurred in response to extreme climatic constraints. By integrating both macroecological and macroevolutionary approaches into a single framework, our study quantifies the crucial role of evolutionary processes such as natural selection in the spatial distribution and structure of large-scale species assemblages.

Fossils matter: improved estimates of divergence times in Pinus reveal older diversification.

BACKGROUND: The taxonomy of pines (genus Pinus) is widely accepted and a robust gene tree based on entire plastome sequences exists. However, there is a large discrepancy in estimated divergence times of major pine clades among existing studies, mainly due to differences in fossil placement and dating methods used. We currently lack a dated molecular phylogeny that makes use of the rich pine fossil record, and this study is the first to estimate the divergence dates of pines based on a large number of fossils (21) evenly distributed across all major clades, in combination with applying both node and tip dating methods. RESULTS: We present a range of molecular phylogenetic trees of Pinus generated within a Bayesian framework. We find the origin of crown Pinus is likely up to 30 Myr older (Early Cretaceous) than inferred in most previous studies (Late Cretaceous) and propose generally older divergence times for major clades within Pinus than previously thought. Our age estimates vary significantly between the different dating approaches, but the results generally agree on older divergence times. We present a revised list of 21 fossils that are suitable to use in dating or comparative analyses of pines. CONCLUSIONS: Reliable estimates of divergence times in pines are essential if we are to link diversification processes and functional adaptation of this genus to geological events or to changing climates. In addition to older divergence times in Pinus, our results also indicate that node age estimates in pines depend on dating approaches and the specific fossil sets used, reflecting inherent differences in various dating approaches. The sets of dated phylogenetic trees of pines presented here provide a way to account for uncertainties in age estimations when applying comparative phylogenetic methods.

Available Climate Regimes Drive Niche Diversification during Range Expansion.

Climate is a main predictor of biodiversity on a global scale, yet how climate availability affects niche evolution remains poorly explored. Here we assess how intercontinental climate differences may affect the evolution of climate niches and suggest three possible processes: niche truncation along major environmental gradients, intercontinental differences in available climate causing differences in selective regimes, and niche shifts associated with long-distance dispersals leading to a pattern of punctuated evolution. Using the globally distributed danthonioid grasses, we show significant niche differentiation among continents and several instances of niche truncation. The comparison of inferred selective regimes with differences in available climatic space among continents demonstrates adaptation resulting from opportunistic evolution toward available climatic space. Our results suggest that niche evolution in this clade is punctuated, consistent with accelerated niche evolution after long-distance dispersal events. Finally, we discuss how intrinsic constraints (genetic, developmental, or functional) and biotic interactions could have interacted with these three processes during range expansion. Integrating these mechanisms could improve predictions for invasive taxa and long-term evolutionary responses of expanding clades to climate change.

Effects of a fire response trait on diversification in replicated radiations.

Fire has been proposed as a factor explaining the exceptional plant species richness found in Mediterranean regions. A fire response trait that allows plants to cope with frequent fire by either reseeding or resprouting could differentially affect rates of species diversification. However, little is known about the generality of the effects of differing fire response on species evolution. We study this question in the Restionaceae, a family that radiated in Southern Africa and Australia. These radiations occurred independently and represent evolutionary replicates. We apply Bayesian approaches to estimate trait-specific diversification rates and patterns of climatic niche evolution. We also compare the climatic heterogeneity of South Africa and Australia. Reseeders diversify faster than resprouters in South Africa, but not in Australia. We show that climatic preferences evolve more rapidly in reseeder lineages than in resprouters and that the optima of these climatic preferences differ between the two strategies. We find that South Africa is more climatically heterogeneous than Australia, independent of the spatial scale we consider. We propose that rapid shifts between states of the fire response trait promote speciation by separating species ecologically, but this only happens when the landscape is sufficiently heterogeneous.

Small and ugly? Phylogenetic analyses of the "selfing syndrome" reveal complex evolutionary fates of monomorphic primrose flowers.

One of the most common trends in plant evolution, loss of self-incompatibility and ensuing increases in selfing, is generally assumed to be associated with a suite of phenotypic changes, notably a reduction of floral size, termed the selfing syndrome. We investigate whether floral morphological traits indeed decrease in a deterministic fashion after losses of self-incompatibility, as traditionally expected, using a phylogeny of 124 primrose species containing nine independent transitions from heterostyly (heteromorphic incompatibility) to homostyly (monomorphic self-compatibility), a classic system for evolution of selfing. We find similar overall variability of homostylous and heterostylous species, except for diminished herkogamy in homostyles. Bayesian mixed models demonstrate differences between homostylous and heterostylous species in all traits, but net effects across species are small (except herkogamy) and directionality differs among traits. Strongly drift-like evolutionary trajectories of corolla tube length and corolla diameter inferred by Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models contrast with expected deterministic trajectories toward small floral size. Lineage-specific population genetic effects associated with evolution of selfing may explain that reductions of floral size represent one of several possible outcomes of floral evolution after loss of heterostyly in primroses. Contrary to the traditional paradigm, selfing syndromes may, but do not necessarily evolve in response to increased selfing.

Mutualism with sea anemones triggered the adaptive radiation of clownfishes.

BACKGROUND: Adaptive radiation is the process by which a single ancestral species diversifies into many descendants adapted to exploit a wide range of habitats. The appearance of ecological opportunities, or the colonisation or adaptation to novel ecological resources, has been documented to promote adaptive radiation in many classic examples. Mutualistic interactions allow species to access resources untapped by competitors, but evidence shows that the effect of mutualism on species diversification can greatly vary among mutualistic systems. Here, we test whether the development of obligate mutualism with sea anemones allowed the clownfishes to radiate adaptively across the Indian and western Pacific oceans reef habitats. RESULTS: We show that clownfishes morphological characters are linked with ecological niches associated with the sea anemones. This pattern is consistent with the ecological speciation hypothesis. Furthermore, the clownfishes show an increase in the rate of species diversification as well as rate of morphological evolution compared to their closest relatives without anemone mutualistic associations. CONCLUSIONS: The effect of mutualism on species diversification has only been studied in a limited number of groups. We present a case of adaptive radiation where mutualistic interaction is the likely key innovation, providing new insights into the mechanisms involved in the buildup of biodiversity. Due to a lack of barriers to dispersal, ecological speciation is rare in marine environments. Particular life-history characteristics of clownfishes likely reinforced reproductive isolation between populations, allowing rapid species diversification.

Assessing rapid evolution in a changing environment.

Climate change poses a serious threat to species persistence. Effective modelling of evolutionary responses to rapid climate change is therefore essential. In this review we examine recent advances in phylogenetic comparative methods, techniques normally used to study adaptation over long periods, which allow them to be applied to the study of adaptation over shorter time scales. This increased applicability is largely due to the emergence of more flexible models of character evolution and the parallel development of molecular technologies that can be used to assess adaptive variation at loci scattered across the genome. The merging of phylogenetic and population genetic approaches to the study of adaptation has significant potential to advance our understanding of rapid responses to environmental change.