Marine iodine emissions in a changing world.

Iodine is a critical trace element involved in many diverse and important processes in the Earth system. The importance of iodine for human health has been known for over a century, with low iodine in the diet being linked to goitre, cretinism and neonatal death. Research over the last few decades has shown that iodine has significant impacts on tropospheric photochemistry, ultimately impacting climate by reducing the radiative forcing of ozone (O3) and air quality by reducing extreme O3 concentrations in polluted regions. Iodine is naturally present in the ocean, predominantly as aqueous iodide and iodate. The rapid reaction of sea-surface iodide with O3 is believed to be the largest single source of gaseous iodine to the atmosphere. Due to increased anthropogenic O3, this release of iodine is believed to have increased dramatically over the twentieth century, by as much as a factor of 3. Uncertainties in the marine iodine distribution and global cycle are, however, major constraints in the effective prediction of how the emissions of iodine and its biogeochemical cycle may change in the future or have changed in the past. Here, we present a synthesis of recent results by our team and others which bring a fresh perspective to understanding the global iodine biogeochemical cycle. In particular, we suggest that future climate-induced oceanographic changes could result in a significant change in aqueous iodide concentrations in the surface ocean, with implications for atmospheric air quality and climate.

Ice-age survival of Atlantic cod: agreement between palaeoecology models and genetics.

Scant scientific attention has been given to the abundance and distribution of marine biota in the face of the lower sea level, and steeper latitudinal gradient in climate, during the ice-age conditions that have dominated the past million years. Here we examine the glacial persistence of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) populations using two ecological-niche-models (ENM) and the first broad synthesis of multi-locus gene sequence data for this species. One ENM uses a maximum entropy approach (Maxent ); the other is a new ENM for Atlantic cod, using ecophysiological parameters based on observed reproductive events rather than adult distribution. Both the ENMs were tested for present-day conditions, then used to hindcast ranges at the last glacial maximum (LGM) ca 21kyr ago, employing climate model data. Although the LGM range of Atlantic cod was much smaller, and fragmented, both the ENMs agreed that populations should have been able to persist in suitable habitat on both sides of the Atlantic. The genetic results showed a degree of trans-Atlantic divergence consistent with genealogically continuous populations on both sides of the North Atlantic since long before the LGM, confirming the ENM results. In contrast, both the ENMs and the genetic data suggest that the Greenland G. morhua population post-dates the LGM.