ABSTRACT
Introduction: The occurrence of dengue fever presents a considerable burden for public health care in developing countries. This study aims to validate APRI as predictor score for severity of dengue fever so that catastrophic events could be prevented, and early triage can save lives. Methods: The retrospective cross-sectional study was done on dengue positive patients from August to November 2023. APRI score was calculated for every patient at the time of admission. The primary end-point was non-complicated disease (Simple dengue fever) vs complicated disease (dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome). ROC curve was used to identify the role of APRI in prediction of dengue complication. Youden index was used to find the cut-off value of APRI along with sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios. To further evaluate the role of APRI score, patients were divided into two groups, patients with APRI score greater and lesser than cut-off value. The qualitative variables among two groups were compared by chi-square testing. The predictors of complicated dengue were first determined by univariate regression analysis and then confirmed by multivariate regression analysis. Results: The mean APRI score of 135 patients was 20.06 ± 6.31. AUC for APRI score was 0.93 (p < 0.0001) indicating that APRI score calculated at the time of admission is an excellent marker in determining the complicated dengue. The cut-off value for APRI score was 9.04 (sensitivity 84.91%, specificity 89.02%, p < 0.0001). The patients with APRI <9.04 mostly developed simple dengue fever (54.1%) vs DHF (4.4%) and DSS (1.5%), while patients with APRI >9.04 had more DHF (20.7%) and DSS (12.6%) vs simple dengue fever (6.7%). None of the patient died with APRI <9.04 while the mortality rate was 3.7% in patients with APRI >9.04. Conclusion: The APRI score, calculated at the time of admission, is an excellent marker in determining the severe dengue.
