Projection of diabetes morbidity and mortality till 2045 in Indonesia based on risk factors and NCD prevention and control programs.

Diabetes Mellitus is one of the biggest health problems in Indonesia but the research on the disease's projection is still limited. This study aimed to make a projection model of prevalence and mortality of diabetes in Indonesia based on risk factors and NCD programs. The study was a quantitative non-experimental study through multiple linear regression models and system dynamics. The baseline projection was created by 2018 data and projections until 2045 involved the dynamization of risk factors and programs, population, and case fatality rate. The model was created from 205 districts data. This study used secondary data from Basic Health Research, BPJS Kesehatan, NCD programs, and Ministry of Health. The prevalence of diabetes in Indonesia is estimated to increase from 9.19% in 2020 (18.69 million cases) to 16.09% in 2045 (40.7 million cases). The prevalence will be lower to 15.68% (39.6 million) if interventions of programs were carried out, and to 9.22% (23.2 million) if the programs were added with prevention of risk factors. The projected number of deaths due to diabetes increases from 433,752 in 2020 to 944,468 in 2045. Deaths due to stroke among diabetes increases from 52,397 to 114,092 in the same period. Deaths from IHD among diabetes increase from 35,351 to 76,974, and deaths from chronic kidney disease among diabetes increase from 29,061 to 63,279. Diabetes prevalence and mortality in Indonesia rise significantly in Indonesia and can be reduced by intervention of several programs and risk factors. This study findings could be source of planning and evaluation of Diabetes prevention and control program at national and provincial level in the future related to risk factors control and program development.

Health System Disruption at the Primary Health Center Level Affected by Earthquake, Tsunami, and Liquefaction in 3 Districts of Central Sulawesi, Indonesia.

OBJECTIVES: An earthquake followed by tsunami and liquefaction on September 28, 2018, in Central Sulawesi caused health system disruptions. This study aimed to know health system disruption at the primary health center (PHC) level due to the disaster in 3 districts (Palu, Sigi, Donggala) of Central Sulawesi. METHODS: This was a qualitative study conducted in March 2019 involving 36 PHCs. Data were collected through interview of PHC officers using a structured questionnaire. Variables included disruption of management, budget, human resources, drug supply, Early Warning Alert and Response System (EWARS) of epidemic prone disease (EPD), human resource migration, health facility damage, and health facility access. Descriptive analysis was conducted to define disruption for a 1-y projection. RESULTS: Health system disruptions in Palu affected management, budget, human resources, EWARS, health facility damage, and health access; occurred within 1-2 mo; and were projected to become better after 6 mo. Problems in Sigi were management, human resources, drug supply, EPD, and EWARS for 1 mo after disaster and were projected to be better after 2 mo. The problems in Donggala were health services access, management, human resources for 1 mo after the disaster and were projected to be normal after 2 mo. CONCLUSIONS: Health system disruptions occurred in Central Sulawesi Province at the PHC level within 1-2 mo and were projected to become better after 3 mo in most PHCs.

Twelve Years Implementation of Cervical and Breast Cancer Screening Program in Indonesia.

OBJECTIVE: The study aimed to measure achievement of the national program of cervical and breast cancer screening in Indonesia after 12 years implementation and factors associated with the number of the screening. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study with descriptive and analytic analysis. Secondary data was collected from Directorate of Non Communicable Disease Control, Ministry of Health. RESULTS: From 2007 to 2018, the program was implemented in all 34 provinces, at 51% primary health centers (PHC) with 3 providers each. Total women aged 30-50 years screened was 3,664,625 (9.8% of the target). The number rose gradually from 2007 to 2014, with significant increase from 2015 to 2018. Bali province had the highest coverage (31%) and Papua had the lowest (1%). We found a wide disparity of coverage among provinces. There was 3.4% of VIA-positive, 16.1% was treated with cryotherapy, 1.3 per 1,000 of suspected cervical cancer, 5,4% lump in the breast, and 0.7 per 1,000 suspected breast cancer. Factors associated with number of the screening were number of PHC providing screening, number of GP, total provider, number of NCD post, number of Village with NCD Post, and income of the province. CONCLUSION: The cervical and breast cancer screening program was running in all provinces in more than half of primary health centers in Indonesia. National coverage (9.8%) was far below the target and varied widely among provinces. Number of PHC with screening services, number of GP, number of total provider, number of NCD post, number of Village with NCD Post, and income of the province have association with cervical and breast cancer screening.

Oral Contraceptive and Breast Cancer Risks: a Case Control Study in Six Referral Hospitals in Indonesia

Objective: This study aimed to understand the effects of the use of oral contraceptive to breast cancer risk in six referral hospitals in Indonesia. Methods: The research design was hospital based case-control, conducted in 2013. Population was women patients aged 15 years and above in six cancer-referral hospitals in five provinces. Total of 762 people were included in this study consisting of 381 who are diagnosed with breast cancer as confirmed by histopathologic examination in inpatient surgery ward, and 381 people who are not diagnosed with breast cancer based on interview in outpatient surgery ward as control group. A set of data were collected including the use of oral contraceptives, age, early menarche, childbirth status, breastfeeding status, obesity, unhealthy diet, history of benign breast tumors, family history of breast cancer, and age of menopause. Result: Results showed that Odds Ratio (OR) of patients using oral contraceptive <6 years was 1.93 (95% CI 1.23 ­ 3.03) and OR of those using oral contraceptive ≥ 6 years was 2.90 (95% CI 1.65­ 5.09) as compared to people who did not use oral contraceptive. Conclusion: Use of oral contraceptive in patients was indicated to increase the risk of breast cancer. Longer the duration of using oral contraceptive tend to have higher the risk of breast cancer.

Population-based cancer registration in Indonesia.

Cancer is a major public health problem in Indonesia, becoming the 7th largest cause of death based on a national survey in 2007, accounting for 5.7 of all mortality. A cancer registry was started in 1970, but it was partial and was stopped mainly because no government body was responsible. Realizing the above situation, the Indonesian government established the Sub Directorate of Cancer Control within the Ministry of Health, with responsibility for developing a national cancer control program, including a cancer registry. A sustainable cancer registry was then started in 2007 within Jakarta Province, first hospital-based but then expanded to be population-based. Steps of cancer registration in Jakarta are data collection, data verification, data validation, data management and analysis, and data publication. Data collection is conducted by health facilities (hospitals, laboratories, primary health centers) at the district/municipal level, with reports to the provincial level. Data are collected passively by holding meetings every three months in the district/municipality. Verification of data is the responsibility of the medical doctor or pathologist in each data source. Data validation is conducted by a team in the cancer registry, consisting of district/municipal/province health officers, pathologists, and registrars. Data management and analyses are conducted by a cancer registry team at the provincial level, assisted by the national team. We use software named Indonesian Cancer Registry System (SRIKANDI) which is adopted from CanReg4 IARC. Data from the population-based cancer registry in Jakarta Province showed the leading cancers among females in 2005-2007 to be breast cancer, cervical cancer, ovarian cancer, colorectal cancer and among males are bronchus and lung cancer, colorectal cancer, liver cancer, pharyngeal cancer, and prostate cancer. The leading childhood cancers are leukaemia and retinoblastoma.