ABSTRACT
As the influenza A(H1N1)v pandemic unfolds globally, it is vital to monitor closely for signals of change in the current patterns of transmission. We estimate the basic reproduction ratio for A(H1N1)v virus in Thailand and propose a method to keep track of the actual case count notwithstanding the exponential growth rate.
Subject(s)
Disease Outbreaks , Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype/growth & development , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Mortality/trends , Age Distribution , Female , Humans , Influenza, Human/transmission , Influenza, Human/virology , Male , Poisson Distribution , Thailand/epidemiologyABSTRACT
Influenza viruses A/Philippines/341/2004 (H1N2) and A/Thailand/271/2005 (H1N1) were isolated from two males, with mild influenza providing evidence of sporadic human infection by contemporary swine influenza. Both viruses were antigenically and genetically distinct from influenza A (H1N1 and H1N2) viruses that have circulated in the human population. Genetic analysis of the haemagglutinin genes found these viruses to have the highest degree of similarity to the classical swine H1 viruses circulating in Asia and North America. The neuraminidase gene and the internal genes were found to be more closely related to viruses circulating in European swine, which appear to have undergone multiple reassorting events. Although transmission of swine influenza to humans appears to be a relatively rare event, swine have been proposed as the intermediate host in the generation of potential pandemic influenza virus that may have the capacity to cause human epidemics resulting in high morbidity and mortality.
