Statistical and agent-based modelling of the transmissibility of different SARS-CoV-2 variants in England and impact of different interventions.

The English SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been affected by the emergence of new viral variants such as B.1.177, Alpha and Delta, and changing restrictions. We used statistical models and the agent-based model Covasim, in June 2021, to estimate B.1.177 to be 20% more transmissible than the wild type, Alpha to be 50-80% more transmissible than B.1.177 and Delta to be 65-90% more transmissible than Alpha. Using these estimates in Covasim (calibrated 1 September 2020 to 20 June 2021), in June 2021, we found that due to the high transmissibility of Delta, resurgence in infections driven by the Delta variant would not be prevented, but would be strongly reduced by delaying the relaxation of restrictions by one month and with continued vaccination. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.

The Royal Society RAMP modelling initiative.

Normally, science proceeds following a well-established set of principles. Studies are done with an emphasis on correctness, are submitted to a journal editor who evaluates their relevance, and then undergo anonymous peer review by experts before publication in a journal and acceptance by the scientific community via the open literature. This process is slow, but its accuracy has served all fields of science well. In an emergency situation, different priorities come to the fore. Research and review need to be conducted quickly, and the target audience consists of policymakers. Scientists must jostle for the attention of non-specialists without sacrificing rigour, and must deal not only with peer assessment but also with media scrutiny by journalists who may have agendas other than ensuring scientific correctness. Here, we describe how the Royal Society coordinated efforts of diverse scientists to help model the coronavirus epidemic. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.

Compositional modelling of immune response and virus transmission dynamics.

Transmission models for infectious diseases are typically formulated in terms of dynamics between individuals or groups with processes such as disease progression or recovery for each individual captured phenomenologically, without reference to underlying biological processes. Furthermore, the construction of these models is often monolithic: they do not allow one to readily modify the processes involved or include the new ones, or to combine models at different scales. We show how to construct a simple model of immune response to a respiratory virus and a model of transmission using an easily modifiable set of rules allowing further refining and merging the two models together. The immune response model reproduces the expected response curve of PCR testing for COVID-19 and implies a long-tailed distribution of infectiousness reflective of individual heterogeneity. This immune response model, when combined with a transmission model, reproduces the previously reported shift in the population distribution of viral loads along an epidemic trajectory. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.

Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has highlighted the importance of mathematical modelling in informing and advising policy decision-making. Effective practice of mathematical modelling has challenges. These can be around the technical modelling framework and how different techniques are combined, the appropriate use of mathematical formalisms or computational languages to accurately capture the intended mechanism or process being studied, in transparency and robustness of models and numerical code, in simulating the appropriate scenarios via explicitly identifying underlying assumptions about the process in nature and simplifying approximations to facilitate modelling, in correctly quantifying the uncertainty of the model parameters and projections, in taking into account the variable quality of data sources, and applying established software engineering practices to avoid duplication of effort and ensure reproducibility of numerical results. Via a collection of 16 technical papers, this special issue aims to address some of these challenges alongside showcasing the usefulness of modelling as applied in this pandemic. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.

Modelling the impact of reopening schools in the UK in early 2021 in the presence of the alpha variant and with roll-out of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2.

Following the resurgence of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK in late 2020 and the emergence of the alpha (also known as B117) variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, a third national lockdown was imposed from January 4, 2021. Following the decline of COVID-19 cases over the remainder of January 2021, the question of when and how to reopen schools became an increasingly pressing one in early 2021. This study models the impact of a partial national lockdown with social distancing measures enacted in communities and workplaces under different strategies of reopening schools from March 8, 2021 and compares it to the impact of continual full national lockdown remaining until April 19, 2021. We used our previously published agent-based model, Covasim, to model the emergence of the alpha variant over September 1, 2020 to January 31, 2021 in presence of Test, Trace and Isolate (TTI) strategies. We extended the model to incorporate the impacts of the roll-out of a two-dose vaccine against COVID-19, with 200,000 daily vaccine doses prioritised by age starting with people 75 years or older, assuming vaccination offers a 95% reduction in disease acquisition risk and a 30% reduction in transmission risk. We used the model, calibrated until January 25, 2021, to simulate the impact of a full national lockdown (FNL) with schools closed until April 19, 2021 versus four different partial national lockdown (PNL) scenarios with different elements of schooling open: 1) staggered PNL with primary schools and exam-entry years (years 11 and 13) returning on March 8, 2021 and the rest of the schools years on March 15, 2020; 2) full-return PNL with both primary and secondary schools returning on March 8, 2021; 3) primary-only PNL with primary schools and exam critical years (years 11 and 13) going back only on March 8, 2021 with the rest of the secondary schools back on April 19, 2021 and 4) part-rota PNL with both primary and secondary schools returning on March 8, 2021 with primary schools remaining open continuously but secondary schools on a two-weekly rota-system with years alternating between a fortnight of face-to-face and remote learning until April 19, 2021. Across all scenarios, we projected the number of new daily cases, cumulative deaths and effective reproduction number R until April 30, 2021. Our calibration across different scenarios is consistent with alpha variant being around 60% more transmissible than the wild type. We find that strict social distancing measures, i.e. national lockdowns, were essential in containing the spread of the virus and controlling hospitalisations and deaths during January and February 2021. We estimated that a national lockdown over January and February 2021 would reduce the number of cases by early March to levels similar to those seen in October 2020, with R also falling and remaining below 1 over this period. We estimated that infections would start to increase when schools reopened, but found that if other parts of society remain closed, this resurgence would not be sufficient to bring R above 1. Reopening primary schools and exam critical years only or having primary schools open continuously with secondary schools on rotas was estimated to lead to lower increases in cases and R than if all schools opened. Without an increase in vaccination above the levels seen in January and February, we estimate that R could have increased above 1 following the reopening of society, simulated here from April 19, 2021. Our findings suggest that stringent measures were integral in mitigating the increase in cases and bringing R below 1 over January and February 2021. We found that it was plausible that a PNL with schools partially open from March 8, 2021 and the rest of the society remaining closed until April 19, 2021 would keep R below 1, with some increase evident in infections compared to continual FNL until April 19, 2021. Reopening society in mid-April, without an increase in vaccination levels, could push R above 1 and induce a surge in infections, but the effect of vaccination may be able to control this in future depending on the transmission blocking properties of the vaccines.

Rule-based epidemic models.

Rule-based models generalise reaction-based models with reagents that have internal state and may be bound together to form complexes, as in chemistry. An important class of system that would be intractable if expressed as reactions or ordinary differential equations can be efficiently simulated when expressed as rules. In this paper we demonstrate the utility of the rule-based approach for epidemiological modelling presenting a suite of seven models illustrating the spread of infectious disease under different scenarios: wearing masks, infection via fomites and prevention by hand-washing, the concept of vector-borne diseases, testing and contact tracing interventions, disease propagation within motif-structured populations with shared environments such as schools, and superspreading events. Rule-based models allow to combine transparent modelling approach with scalability and compositionality and therefore can facilitate the study of aspects of infectious disease propagation in a richer context than would otherwise be feasible.

Modelling the potential impact of mask use in schools and society on COVID-19 control in the UK.

As the UK reopened after the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic, crucial questions emerged around the role for ongoing interventions, including test-trace-isolate (TTI) strategies and mandatory masks. Here we assess the importance of masks in secondary schools by evaluating their impact over September 1-October 23, 2020. We show that, assuming TTI levels from August 2020 and no fundamental changes in the virus's transmissibility, adoption of masks in secondary schools would have reduced the predicted size of a second wave, but preventing it would have required 68% or 46% of those with symptoms to seek testing (assuming masks' effective coverage 15% or 30% respectively). With masks in community settings but not secondary schools, the required testing rates increase to 76% and 57%.

Inactivation of escherichia coli 0157:H7 and Salmonella on mung beans, alfalfa, and other seed types destined for sprout production by using an oxychloro-based sanitizer.

The efficacy of a stabilized oxychloro-based food grade sanitizer to decontaminate seeds destined for sprout production has been evaluated. By using mung bean seeds as a model system, it was demonstrated that the sanitizer could be used to inactivate a five-strain cocktail of Escherichia coli O157:H7 or Salmonella introduced onto beans at 10(3) to 10(4) CFU/g. Salmonella was more tolerant to stabilized oxychloro than was E. coli O157:H7, with sanitizer levels of >150 and >50 ppm, respectively, being required to ensure pathogen-free sprouts. The decontamination efficacy was also found to be dependent on treatment time (>8 h optimal) and the seed-to-sanitizer ratio (>1:4 optimal). Stabilized oxychloro treatment did not exhibit phytotoxic effects, as germination and sprout yields were not significantly (P > 0.05) different as compared with untreated controls. Although human pathogens could be effectively eliminated from mung beans, the aerobic plate count of native microflora on sprouts grown from treated seed was not significantly (P > 0.05) different from the controls. The diversity of microbial populations (determined through 16S rRNA denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis analysis) associated with bean sprouts was not significantly affected by the sanitizer treatment. However, it was noted that Klebsiella and Herbasprillum (both common plant endophytes) were absent in sprouts derived from decontaminated seed but were present in control sprouts. When a further range of seed types was evaluated, it was found that alfalfa, cress, flax, and soybean could be decontaminated with the stabilized oxychloro sanitizer. However, the decontamination efficacy with other seed types was less consistent. It appears that the rate of seed germination and putative activity of sanitizer sequestering system(s), in addition to other factors, may limit the efficacy of the decontamination method.

Internalization of bioluminescent Escherichia coli and Salmonella Montevideo in growing bean sprouts.

AIMS: Investigate the interaction of bioluminescent Escherichia coli and Salmonella Montevideo with germinating mung bean sprouts. METHODS AND RESULTS: E. coli or Salm. Montevideo introduced on mung beans became established both internally and externally on sprouts after the initial 24 h germinating period. In both cases the inoculated bacterium formed the predominant microflora on the sprouted beans throughout. From the bioluminescent profile of inoculated sprouting beans, bacterial growth was found to be in close proximity to the roots but not on the hypocotyls. Clumps (biofilms) of cells with low viability were observed within the grooves between epidermal cells on hypocotyls. Treatment with 20,000 ppm sodium hypochlorite removed the majority of bacteria from the surface of hypocotyls although nonviable single cells were occasionally observed. However, viable bacteria were recovered from the apoplastic fluid, and extracts of surface-sterilized sprouts indicating that the internal bacterial populations had been protected. This was confirmed using in situ beta-glucuronidase staining of surface-sterilized sprouts where cleaved enzyme substrate (by the action of internalized E. coli) was visualized within the plant vascular system. CONCLUSIONS: E. coli or Salmonella present on seeds become internalized within the subsequent sprouts and cannot be removed by postharvest biocidal washing. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: Mung bean production should be carefully controlled to prevent contamination occurring in order to minimize the health risk associated with raw bean sprouts.

The effect of acid shock on sporulating Bacillus subtilis cells.

AIMS: To study the effect of acid shock in sporulation on the production of acid-shock proteins, and on the heat resistance and germination characteristics of the spores formed subsequently. METHODS AND RESULTS: Bacillus subtilis wild-type (SASP-alpha+beta+) and mutant (SASP-alpha-beta-) cells in 2 x SG medium at 30 degrees C were acid-shocked with HCl (pH 4, 4.3, 5 and 6 against a control pH of 6.2) for 30 min, 1 h into sporulation. The D85-value of B. subtilis wild-type (but not mutant) spores formed from sporulating cells acid-shocked at pH 5 increased from 46.5 min to 78.8 min, and there was also an increase in the resistance of wild-type acid-shocked spores at both 90 degrees C and 95 degrees C. ALA- or AGFK-initiated germination of pH 5-shocked spores was the same as that of non-acid-shocked spores. Two-dimensional gel electrophoresis showed only one novel acid-shock protein, identified as a vegetative catalase 1 (KatA), which appeared 30 min after acid shock but was lost later in sporulation. CONCLUSIONS: Acid shock at pH 5 increased the heat resistance of spores subsequently formed in B. subtilis wild type. The catalase, KatA, was induced by acid shock early in sporulation, but since it was degraded later in sporulation, it appears to act to increase heat resistance by altering spore structure. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: This is the first proteomic study of acid shock in sporulating B. subtilis cells. The increasing spore heat resistance produced by acid shock may have significance for the heat resistance of spores formed in the food industry.

Enzymes from isolates of Pseudomonas fluorescens involved in food spoilage.

AIMS: Psychrotrophic Gram-negative bacteria, such as Pseudomonas species, pose a significant spoilage problem in refrigerated meat and dairy products due to secretion of hydrolytic enzymes, especially lipases and proteases. This study characterized the enzymes produced by strains of Pseudomonas fluorescens isolated from pasteurized milk. METHODS AND RESULTS: Thirty-seven isolates of Ps. fluorescens from skimmed, semiskimmed and whole milk were all shown to be proteolytic and lipolytic on casein and tributyrin agar, respectively. The highest level of protease production by one isolate, SMD 31, from skimmed milk was in minimal salts medium containing 1 mmol x l(-1) calcium chloride at 20 degrees C. The proteases belonged to the class of metallo-proteases, as there was no residual activity with 10 mmol x l(-1) EDTA. They were heat stable and retained activity even after treatment at 121 degrees C for 20 min. One protease of 45-48 kDa was detected in unconcentrated supernatant fluid samples but, in three isolates from different milk sources, five proteases with molecular masses between 28 and 48 kDa were detected on a 12% zymogram casein gel following ultrafiltration. Attempts to purify the lipases proved unsuccessful. CONCLUSIONS: The characteristics of the major protease of 45-48 kDa correspond to those of proteases described for other Pseudomonas species isolated from a range of environments. However, the smaller proteases have not been described previously. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: In the absence of ultrafiltration the presence of the minor protease species may be missed and they may act as contaminants of the major protease in unpurified or semipurified samples.

Carton sterilization by u.v.-C excimer laser light: recovery of Bacillus subtilis spores on vegetable extracts and food simulation matrices.

AIMS: To determine the recovery of Bacillus subtilis spores loaded onto preformed cartons and irradiated with u.v.-excimer laser (248 nm) light. METHODS AND RESULTS: Bacillus subtilis spores irradiated with u.v.-excimer laser light retained phase brightness, but were blocked at various stages of germination. In the presence of germinant, the majority of spores began to lose phase brightness but only after an extended lag period (ca 90 min). After 6 h ca 9% of the spores had elongated but failed to form new cells, approx. 12% had undergone partial phase darkening (grey spores), 15% remained phase bright whilst the remainder had turned fully phase dark but failed to elongate. No enhanced recovery of u.v.-treated spores (with intact or permeabilized coats) occurred in media containing hen egg white lysozyme or vegetable extracts (celery, carrot, swede or turnip). However, recovery did occur when irradiated spores were incubated for 26 d, semiaerobically, within cartons containing nutrient broth or milk. CONCLUSIONS: The germination ability of B. subtilis spores is altered following u.v.-excimer laser treatment. Recovery of treated spores was found in liquid systems but not on agar plates supplemented with vegetable extracts or lysozyme. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: The potential recovery of u.v.-excimer laser-treated spores in a range of carton-packed food systems requires further investigation.

Attachment of bacteria to beef from steam-pasteurized carcasses.

The extent to which a bacterial cocktail containing equal numbers of Pseudomonas fragi NCTC 10689, Listeria monocytogenes BL5/2, Salmonella Typhimurium LT2, and Escherichia coli JM 109 attached to loin surface cuts (7 by 5 cm) derived from steam-pasteurized beef carcasses has been evaluated. The extent of attachment was categorized as loosely attached (removed by rinsing), firmly attached (released by stomaching), and irreversibly bound. No significant difference (P > 0.10) in the attachment of bacteria to steam-pasteurized carcasses was found compared with control loin samples that had received no treatment. No significant difference (P > 0.05) was also found in the attachment strength between the different bacterial species tested. Most bacteria inoculated onto the loin cuts were reversibly bound, since they had been removed by rinsing and stomaching. The irreversible attachment of bacteria to loin cuts was found to vary significantly (P < 0.01) among the different carcass sets used but was independent of whether the carcass had undergone steam pasteurization treatment. Use of a bioluminescent strain of E. coli showed that cells bound preferentially to cut edges and convoluted areas on the loin surface and could not be removed by rinsing. The possible mechanisms of bacterial attachment and the suitability of steam pasteurization to remove contamination incurred during slaughter are discussed.

Research on factors allowing a risk assessment of spore-forming pathogenic bacteria in cooked chilled foods containing vegetables: a FAIR collaborative project.

Vegetables are frequent ingredients of cooked chilled foods and are frequently contaminated with spore-forming bacteria (SFB). Therefore, risk assessment studies have been carried out, including the following: hazard identification and characterisation--from an extensive literature review and expertise of the participants, B. cereus and C. botulinum were identified as the main hazards; exposure assessment--consisting of determination of the prevalence of hazardous SFB in cooked chilled foods containing vegetables and in unprocessed vegetables, and identification of SFB representative of the bacterial community in cooked chilled foods containing vegetables, determination of heat-resistance parameters and factors affecting heat resistance of SFB, determination of the growth kinetics of SFB in vegetable substrate and of the influence of controlling factors, validation of previous work in complex food systems and by challenge testing and information about process and storage conditions of cooked chilled foods containing vegetables. The paper illustrates some original results obtained in the course of the project. The results and information collected from scientific literature or from the expertise of the participants are integrated into the microbial risk assessment, using both a Bayesian belief network approach and a process risk model approach, previously applied to other foodborne hazards.

A two-dimensional protein gel electrophoresis study of the heat stress response of Bacillus subtilis cells during sporulation.

The heat resistance of spores of Bacillus subtilis formed at 30 degrees C was enhanced by pretreatment at 48 degrees C for 30 min, 60 min into sporulation, for all four strains examined. High-resolution two-dimensional gel electrophoresis showed the generation and/or overexpression of 60 proteins, 11 of which were specific to heat shock, concurrent to this acquired thermotolerance. The greatest number of new proteins was observed between 30 and 60 min after heat shock, and the longer the time between exponential growth and heat treatment, the fewer differences were observed on corresponding protein profiles. The time at which heating produced the maximum increase in spore resistance and the most new proteins on two-dimensional gels occurred before alkaline phosphatase and dipicolinic acid production and corresponded to stage I or II of sporulation. The stress proteins formed disappeared later in sporulation, suggesting that heat shock proteins increase spore heat resistance by altering spore structure rather than by repairing heat damage during germination and outgrowth.

Inactivation of Bacillus subtilis spores on aluminum and polyethylene preformed cartons by UV-excimer laser irradiation.

The efficacy of UV KrF-excimer laser light (at 248 nm) to inactivate Bacillus subtilis spores loaded onto preformed cartons was found to be dependent on the interior carton coating and scheme by which the irradiation was applied. When the carton was held static during UV laser treatment, the majority of the dose was delivered to the base of the carton and to a lesser extent to the upper part of the pack. In this arrangement no irradiation of the interior sides of the carton was observed. A more even distribution of dose was achieved, however, by moving the carton within the laser beam during irradiation treatment. The distribution of UV was also found to be dependent on the type of carton interior coating. With aluminum cartons the dose measured was found to be significantly greater (P < 0.01) and more evenly distributed across the interior compared to when polyethylene packs were tested. Under optimized conditions no spore survivors were detected on aluminum cartons preloaded with 9.5 x l0 B. subtilis spores by applying a UV laser output dose of 160 J. In comparison, the same conditions only achieved a significantly lower (P < 0.01) reduction in spore numbers (log count reduction 4.2) when polyethylene cartons were used. This difference in lethality and UV distribution of laser light was associated with the higher internal reflection of photons with aluminum cartons. The suitability of UV-excimer lasers for sterilizing preformed cartons over traditional germicidal lamp-based methods is discussed.

Inactivation of Bacillus subtilis spores on packaging surfaces by u. v. excimer laser irradiation.

Ultraviolet (u.v.) laser irradiation has been used to inactivate Bacillus subtilis spores deposited on to planar aluminium- and polyethylene-coated packaging surfaces. Kill kinetics were found to be diphasic, with an initial rapid inactivation phase followed by tailing. Although no definitive evidence was obtained, it is thought that spores located within packaging crevices/pores were primarily responsible for the observed tailing. Surviving spores were also found on the unexposed underside of cards and, to a lesser extent, within clumps. The log count reduction in B. subtilis was dependent on spore loading and total u.v. dose. In comparison, packaging surface composition, fluence (2-18 Jm-2) and frequency (40-150 Hz) had only a negligible effect. By irradiating boards carrying 106 spores, with a dose of 11.5 J cm-2, a log count reduction >5 was obtained. The mode of spore inactivation was primarily through DNA disruption. This was confirmed by the high sensitivity of spores lacking protective, small, acid-soluble proteins, in addition to the high frequency of auxotrophic and asporogenous mutations found amongst survivors.

The growth of Listeria monocytogenes in cheese packed under a modified atmosphere.

The effect of modified atmosphere Packaging (MAP) on the growth of Listeria monocytogenes in mould ripened cheeses was studied at refrigeration temperatures (2-8.3 degrees C) over a storage period of 6 weeks. Control experiments in cling film with no atmospheric modification produced a lag time before growth of up to 1 week and rapid subsequent growth. MAP with a CO2 concentration of less than 20% allowed growth to occur but when O2 was incorporated; the lag time was reduced from 3 to 2 weeks and subsequent growth was also faster, producing an increase in cell numbers of 1.4 log cycles over the incubation period. N2-MAP in the absence of O2 increased the lag time to 3 weeks and slowed growth, while the inclusion of CO2 extended the lag to 3 weeks and slowed subsequent growth even more. In MAP with 80:10:10 (v/v/v) N2:CO2:O2, there was a lag period of 2-3 weeks before growth of L. monocytogenes occurred, while the total viable aerobic count (TVAC) decreased by 2-3 log cycles and the total Lactobacillus count showed little change. It was concluded that MAP was not suitable for preventing the growth of L. monocytogenes in such cheeses.

Effect of flagella on initial attachment of Listeria monocytogenes to stainless steel.

At 22 degrees C a flagellin mutant of Listeria monocytogenes was found to attach to stainless steel at levels 10-fold lower than wild-type cells, even under conditions preventing active motility. At 37 degrees C, when flagella are not produced, attachment of both strains was identical. Therefore, flagella per se facilitate the early stage of attachment.

Effects of combined shear and thermal forces on destruction of Microbacterium lacticum.

A twin-screw extruder and a rotational rheometer were used to generate shear forces in concentrated gelatin inoculated with a heat-resistant isolate of a vegetative bacterial species, Microbacterium lacticum. Shear forces in the extruder were mainly controlled by varying the water feed rate. The water content of the extrudates changed between 19 and 45% (wet weight basis). Higher shear forces generated at low water contents and the calculated die wall shear stress correlated strongly with bacterial destruction. No surviving microorganisms could be detected at the highest wall shear stress of 409 kPa, giving log reduction of 5.3 (minimum detection level, 2 x 10(4) CFU/sample). The mean residence time of the microorganism in the extruder was 49 to 58 s, and the maximum temperature measured in the end of the die was 73 degrees C. The D(75 degrees C) of the microorganism in gelatin at 65% water content was 20 min. It is concluded that the physical forces generated in the reverse screw element and the extruder die rather than heat played a major part in cell destruction. In a rotational rheometer, after shearing of a mix of microorganisms with gelatin at 65% (wt/wt) moisture content for 4 min at a shear stress of 2.8 kPa and a temperature of 75 degrees C, the number of surviving microorganisms in the sheared sample was 5.2 x 10(6) CFU/g of sample compared with 1.4 x 10(8) CFU/g of sample in the nonsheared control. The relative effectiveness of physical forces in the killing of bacteria and destruction of starch granules is discussed.