Public health, climate, and economic impacts of desulfurizing jet fuel.

In jurisdictions including the US and the EU ground transportation and marine fuels have recently been required to contain lower concentrations of sulfur, which has resulted in reduced atmospheric SO(x) emissions. In contrast, the maximum sulfur content of aviation fuel has remained unchanged at 3000 ppm (although sulfur levels average 600 ppm in practice). We assess the costs and benefits of a potential ultra-low sulfur (15 ppm) jet fuel standard ("ULSJ"). We estimate that global implementation of ULSJ will cost US$1-4bn per year and prevent 900-4000 air quality-related premature mortalities per year. Radiative forcing associated with reduction in atmospheric sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium loading is estimated at +3.4 mW/m(2) (equivalent to about 1/10th of the warming due to CO(2) emissions from aviation) and ULSJ increases life cycle CO(2) emissions by approximately 2%. The public health benefits are dominated by the reduction in cruise SO(x) emissions, so a key uncertainty is the atmospheric modeling of vertical transport of pollution from cruise altitudes to the ground. Comparisons of modeled and measured vertical profiles of CO, PAN, O(3), and (7)Be indicate that this uncertainty is low relative to uncertainties regarding the value of statistical life and the toxicity of fine particulate matter.

Global mortality attributable to aircraft cruise emissions.

Aircraft emissions impact human health though degradation of air quality. The majority of previous analyses of air quality impacts from aviation have considered only landing and takeoff emissions. We show that aircraft cruise emissions impact human health over a hemispheric scale and provide the first estimate of premature mortalities attributable to aircraft emissions globally. We estimate ∼8000 premature mortalities per year are attributable to aircraft cruise emissions. This represents ∼80% of the total impact of aviation (where the total includes the effects of landing and takeoff emissions), and ∼1% of air quality-related premature mortalities from all sources. However, we note that the impact of landing and takeoff emissions is likely to be under-resolved. Secondary H(2)SO(4)-HNO(3)-NH(3) aerosols are found to dominate mortality impacts. Due to the altitude and region of the atmosphere at which aircraft emissions are deposited, the extent of transboundary air pollution is particularly strong. For example, we describe how strong zonal westerly winds aloft, the mean meridional circulation around 30-60°N, interaction of aircraft-attributable aerosol precursors with background ammonia, and high population densities in combination give rise to an estimated ∼3500 premature mortalities per year in China and India combined, despite their relatively small current share of aircraft emissions. Subsidence of aviation-attributable aerosol and aerosol precursors occurs predominantly around the dry subtropical ridge, which results in reduced wet removal of aviation-attributable aerosol. It is also found that aircraft NO(x) emissions serve to increase oxidation of nonaviation SO(2), thereby further increasing the air quality impacts of aviation. We recommend that cruise emissions be explicitly considered in the development of policies, technologies and operational procedures designed to mitigate the air quality impacts of air transportation.

NO and NO2 emission ratios measured from in-use commercial aircraft during taxi and takeoff.

In August 2001, the Aerodyne Mobile Laboratory simultaneously measured NO, NO2, and CO2 within 350 m of a taxiway and 550 m of a runway at John F. Kennedy Airport. The meteorological conditions were such that taxi and takeoff plumes from individual aircraft were clearly resolved against background levels. NO and NO2 concentrations were measured with 1 s time resolution using a dual tunable infrared laser differential absorption spectroscopy instrument, utilizing an astigmatic multipass Herriott cell. The CO2 measurements were also obtained at 1 s time resolution using a commercial non-dispersive infrared absorption instrument. Plumes were measured from over 30 individual planes, ranging from turbo props to jumbo jets. NOx emission indices were determined by examining the correlation between NOx (NO + NO2) and CO2 during the plume measurements. Several aircraft tail numbers were unambiguously identified, allowing those specific airframe/engine combinations to be determined. The resulting NOx emission indices from positively identified in-service operating airplanes are compared with the published International Civil Aviation Organization engine certification test database collected on new engines in certification test cells.