Annual mammographic screening to reduce breast cancer mortality in women from age 40 years: long-term follow-up of the UK Age RCT.

BACKGROUND: There remains disagreement on the long-term effect of mammographic screening in women aged 40-49 years. OBJECTIVES: The long-term follow-up of a randomised controlled trial that offered annual mammography to women aged 40-49 years. The estimation of the effect of these mammograms on breast cancer and other-cause mortality, and the effect on incidence, with implications for overdiagnosis. DESIGN: An individually randomised controlled trial comparing offering annual mammography with offering usual care in those aged 40-48 years, and thus evaluating the effect of annual screening entirely taking place before the age of 50 years. There was follow-up for an average of 23 years for breast cancer incidence, breast cancer death and death from other causes. We analysed the mortality and incidence data by Poisson regression and estimated overdiagnosis formally using Markov process models. SETTING: Twenty-three screening units in England, Wales and Scotland within the NHS Breast Screening Programme. PARTICIPANTS: Women aged 39-41 years were recruited between 1990 and 1997. After exclusions, a total of 53,883 women were randomised to undergo screening (the intervention group) and 106,953 women were randomised to have usual care (the control group). INTERVENTIONS: The intervention group was invited to an annual breast screen with film mammography, two view at first screen and single view thereafter, up to and including the calendar year of their 48th birthday. The control group received no intervention. Both groups were invited to the National Programme from the age of 50 years, when screening is offered to all women in the UK. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome measures were mortality from breast cancers diagnosed during the intervention phase of the trial (i.e. before the first National Programme screen at 50 years), mortality from all breast cancers diagnosed after randomisation, all-cause mortality, mortality from causes other than breast cancer, and the incidence of breast cancer. RESULTS: There was a statistically significant 25% reduction in mortality from breast cancers diagnosed during the intervention phase at 10 years' follow-up (relative rate 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.58 to 0.97; p = 0.03). No reduction was observed thereafter (relative rate 0.98, 95% confidence interval 0.79 to 1.22). Overall, there was a statistically non-significant 12% reduction (relative rate 0.88, 95% confidence interval 0.74 to 1.03; p = 0.1). The absolute benefit remained approximately constant over time, at one death prevented per 1000 women screened. There was no effect of intervention on other-cause mortality (relative rate 1.02, 95% confidence interval 0.97 to 1.07; p = 0.4). The intervention group had a higher incidence of breast cancer than the control group during the intervention phase of the trial, but incidence equalised immediately on the first National Programme screen at the age of 50-52 years. LIMITATIONS: There was 31% average non-compliance with screening and three centres had to cease screening for resource and capacity reasons. CONCLUSIONS: Annual mammographic screening at the age of 40-49 years resulted in a relative reduction in mortality, which was attenuated after 10 years. It is likely that digital mammography with two views at all screens, as practised now, could improve this further. There was no evidence of overdiagnosis in addition to that which already results from the National Programme carried out at later ages. FUTURE WORK: There is a need for research on the effects of modern mammographic protocols and additional imaging in this age group. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN24647151. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 55. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. Other funding in the past has been received from the Medical Research Council, Cancer Research UK, the Department of Health and Social Care, the US National Cancer Institute and the American Cancer Society.

It is known that breast cancer screening with mammography (i.e. X-ray of the breasts) in women aged ≥ 50 years leads to a reduction in the number of deaths from breast cancer. In the UK, the NHS Breast Screening Programme offers regular screening to women aged 50­70 years. There is still some disagreement about the effect of such screening on the risk of death from breast cancer for those aged 40­49 years. There is also concern about overdiagnosis, that is, the finding of breast cancer that would not have been diagnosed in a woman's lifetime if she had not been screened. This study recruited 160,921 women aged 39­41 years and randomly assigned one in three of the women to be offered annual mammographic screening from age 40 to 48 years. The women were followed up for occurrence of breast cancer, death from breast cancer and death from all other causes. We found that the women who were offered the screening were 25% less likely to die of breast cancer in the first 10 years in the trial. This mortality reduction was reduced with later follow-up, with a 12% reduction after an average of 23 years. There was no effect of offering screening on death from other causes. During the early years of the trial, the women offered screening had larger numbers of breast cancers diagnosed, but this excess disappeared after the first National Programme screen. This suggests that there is no overdiagnosis from screening those aged 40­49 years over and above that which already results from screening those aged ≥ 50 years.

Relationship between quantitative estrogen and progesterone receptor expression and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER-2) status with recurrence in the Arimidex, Tamoxifen, Alone or in Combination trial.

PURPOSE: To determine the relationship between quantitative estrogen-receptor (ER) and progesterone-receptor (PgR) expression and human epidermal growth factor 2 (HER-2) status with time to recurrence (TTR) in postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive primary breast cancer treated with anastrozole or tamoxifen as adjuvant therapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tumor blocks were retrospectively collected from patients in the monotherapy arms of the Arimidex, Tamoxifen Alone or in Combination (ATAC) trial and centrally tested for ER, PgR and HER-2. ER and PgR were scored using continuous scales and HER-2 was scored as 0 to 3+ with 2+ cases being analyzed by fluorescence in situ hybridization. RESULTS: Blocks were collected from 2,006 of 5,880 eligible patients. Tissue was assessable and ER and/or PgR positivity confirmed centrally in 1,782 cases. In these, TTR was longer for anastrozole than for tamoxifen by a similar extent to that in the overall trial. None of the three biomarkers identified a set of patients with differential benefit from anastrozole over tamoxifen. Patients with low ER, low PgR, and high HER-2 expression had a poorer prognosis with either drug. Only 2.6% of patients in the highest quartile of PgR experienced recurrence after 5 years, compared with 13.2% in the lowest quartile. CONCLUSION: Quantitative expression of ER and PgR and HER-2 status did not identify patients with differential relative benefit from anastrozole over tamoxifen: TTR was longer for anastrozole than for tamoxifen in all molecular subgroups. Low ER or PgR or high HER-2 expression are associated with a high risk of recurrence with either anastrozole or tamoxifen.

Retrospective analysis of time to recurrence in the ATAC trial according to hormone receptor status: an hypothesis-generating study.

PURPOSE: Arimidex, tamoxifen alone, or in combination (ATAC) trial of anastrozole (Arimidex) versus tamoxifen or a combination of the two in 9,366 postmenopausal patients with primary breast cancer found a significant improvement in disease-free survival and time to recurrence (TTR) for anastrozole compared with tamoxifen, that was restricted to patients with hormone receptor-positive (ie, estrogen receptor-positive [ER+] and/or progesterone receptor-positive [PgR+]) disease, the target population for these therapies. We retrospectively tested the hypothesis that this benefit might differ according to PgR status. PATIENTS AND METHODS: TTR was compared between the three treatment groups for subgroups defined by ER and PgR status using Cox's proportional hazards model, with and without adjustment for baseline variables. RESULTS: The unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) for anastrozole versus tamoxifen for TTR was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.64 to 0.87) for women with either ER+ or PgR+ tumors. In the ER+/PgR+ subgroup (n = 3,834) the HR was 0.84 (95% CI, 0.69 to 1.02) compared with 0.43 (95% CI, 0.31 to 0.61) in the ER+/PgR-negative (PgR-) subgroup (n = 880). In the adjusted model the HRs were 0.83 and 0.45, respectively. CONCLUSION: Time to recurrence was longer for anastrozole- than tamoxifen-treated patients in both ER+/PgR+ and ER+/PgR- subgroups, but the benefit was substantially greater in the PgR- subgroup. As this was an "exploratory" analysis, this effect should be considered as hypothesis generating and assessed prospectively in other trials comparing the adjuvant use of an aromatase inhibitor with tamoxifen.