Improved prediction of 10-year risk of severe liver disease in the general population using commonly available biomarkers.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the risk for cirrhosis in the general population is complex. Existing prediction tools are in general unsatisfactory. AIMS: To explore if using commonly available biomarkers can improve the commonly used FIB-4 score in the identification of subgroups at risk of cirrhosis. METHODS: We used laboratory and clinical data on 126,925 individuals aged 35-79 years in Stockholm, Sweden, undergoing health examinations from 1985 to 1996. We used Swedish nationwide registries to ascertain 10-year cumulative incidence of severe liver disease, a composite of diagnoses corresponding to cirrhosis and its complications. We considered combinations of biomarkers associated with severe liver disease to identify subgroups with different risk profiles. RESULTS: During an average follow-up of 9.3 years, we ascertained 630 incident cases of severe liver disease (0.5%). Age, the FIB-4 score, diabetes or impaired glucose and gamma-glutamyl transferase (gGT) were the most relevant characteristics for classifying risk profiles. Using these factors, we identified 24 groups with a cumulative incidence of severe liver disease at 10 years ranging from 0.2% (age 35-65, low FIB-4, no diabetes or impaired glucose and normal gGT) to 32.1% (age 35-65, high FIB-4, diabetes or impaired glucose and high gGT). CONCLUSIONS: Identification of subjects at increased risk of severe liver disease in the general population using the FIB-4 score can be substantially improved by adding age and specific biomarkers commonly available in the primary care setting. These parameters should be considered for inclusion in the development of future risk prediction models.

Lipid levels in midlife and risk of atrial fibrillation over 3 decades-Experience from the Swedish AMORIS cohort: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The role of cholesterol levels in the development of atrial fibrillation (AF) is still controversial. In addition, whether and to what extent apolipoproteins are associated with the risk of AF is rarely studied. In this study, we aimed to investigate the association between blood lipid levels in midlife and subsequent risk of new-onset AF. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This population-based study included 65,136 individuals aged 45 to 60 years without overt cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) from the Swedish Apolipoprotein-Related Mortality Risk (AMORIS) cohort. Lipids were measured in 1985 to 1996, and individuals were followed until December 31, 2019 for incident AF (i.e., study outcome). Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox regression, adjusting for age, sex, and socioeconomic status. Over a mean follow-up of 24.2 years (standard deviation 7.5, range 0.2 to 35.9), 13,871 (21.3%) incident AF cases occurred. Higher levels of total cholesterol (TC) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) were statistically significantly associated with a lower risk of AF during the first 5 years of follow-up (HR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.41 to 0.99, p = 0.013; HR = 0.64, 95% CI: 0.45 to 0.92, p = 0.016), but not thereafter (HR ranging from 0.94 [95% CI: 0.89 to 1.00, p = 0.038] to 0.96 [95% CI: 0.77 to 1.19, p > 0.05]). Lower levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and apolipoprotein A-I (ApoA-I) and higher triglycerides (TG)/HDL-C ratio were statistically significantly associated with a higher risk of AF during the entire follow-up (HR ranging from 1.13 [95% CI: 1.07 to 1.19, p < 0.001] to 1.53 [95% CI: 1.12 to 2.00, p = 0.007]). Apolipoprotein B (ApoB)/ApoA-I ratio was not associated with AF risk. The observed associations were similar among those who developed incident heart failure (HF)/coronary heart disease (CHD) and those who did not. The main limitations of this study include lack of adjustments for lifestyle factors and high blood pressure leading to potential residual confounding. CONCLUSIONS: High TC and LDL-C in midlife was associated with a lower risk of AF, but this association was present only within 5 years from lipid measurement and not thereafter. On the contrary, low HDL-C and ApoA-I and high TG/HDL-C ratio were associated with an increased risk of AF over almost 35 years of follow-up. ApoB/ApoA-I ratio was not associated with AF risk.

Alterations in Biomarkers Related to Glycemia, Lipid Metabolism, and Inflammation up to 20 Years Before Diagnosis of Type 1 Diabetes in Adults: Findings From the AMORIS Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Type 1 diabetes is described to have an acute onset, but autoantibodies can appear several years preceding diagnosis. This suggests a long preclinical phase, which may also include metabolic parameters. Here we assessed whether elevations in glycemic, lipid, and other metabolic biomarkers were associated with future type 1 diabetes risk in adults. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We studied 591,239 individuals from the Swedish AMORIS cohort followed from 1985-1996 to 2012. Through linkage to national patient, diabetes, and prescription registers, we identified incident type 1 diabetes. Using Cox regression models, we estimated hazard ratios for biomarkers at baseline and incident type 1 diabetes. We additionally assessed trajectories of biomarkers during the 25 years before type 1 diabetes diagnosis in a nested case-control design. RESULTS: We identified 1,122 type 1 diabetes cases during follow-up (average age of patient at diagnosis: 53.3 years). The biomarkers glucose, fructosamine, triglycerides, the ratio of apolipoprotein (apo)B to apoA-I, uric acid, alkaline phosphatase, and BMI were positively associated with type 1 diabetes risk. Higher apoA-I was associated with lower type 1 diabetes incidence. Already 15 years before diagnosis, type 1 diabetes cases had higher mean glucose, fructosamine, triglycerides, and uric acid levels compared with control subjects. CONCLUSIONS: Alterations in biomarker levels related to glycemia, lipid metabolism, and inflammation are associated with clinically diagnosed type 1 diabetes risk, and these may be elevated many years preceding diagnosis.

Long-term risk of a major cardiovascular event by apoB, apoA-1, and the apoB/apoA-1 ratio-Experience from the Swedish AMORIS cohort: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Elevated apolipoprotein B (apoB) and elevated apoB/apoA-1 ratio increase the risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke, whereas high apoA-1 is protective. We study how these apolipoproteins are associated with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), whether apoA-1 contributes to this association, and whether abnormal values occur decades before such events develop. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In the Swedish AMORIS (Apolipoprotein-related MOrtality RISk) cohort study, 137,100 men and women aged 25-84 years were followed an average 17.8 years. ApoB, apoA-1, and the apoB/apoA-1 ratio were analysed in relation to MACEs (non-fatal MI, stroke, and cardiovascular [CV] mortality), yielding 22,473 events. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using Cox regression. Kaplan-Meier estimates were used to investigate the relationship of MACEs with increasing quintiles of the apoB/apoA-1 ratio in all age groups for both sexes. In nested case-control analyses, cases were randomly matched to age- and sex-matched controls, yielding population trajectories for apolipoproteins. Increased level of apoB and increased apoB/apoA-1 ratio were associated with risk of MACE and all clinical sub-components in both men and women across all ages (10th versus first decile in both sexes combined: HR 1.7 for MACE and 2.7 for non-fatal MI). Decreased values of apoA-1 potentiated the impact of apoB at all levels of apoB (on average across apoB range: 40% increase in HR for MACE and 72% increase in HR for non-fatal MI), indicating that the apoB/apoA-1 ratio covers a broader range of persons with dyslipidaemia at risk than apoB alone. In both men and women, MACEs occurred earlier on average for each increasing quintile of the apoB/apoA-1 ratio. Individuals with the highest levels of apoB/apoA-1 ratio experienced CV events on average several years earlier than those with lower ratios. Higher apoB/apoA-1 ratio in cases of MACE versus controls was seen already about 20 years before the event. A limitation of this study was that adjustment for tobacco smoking and hypertension was only possible in a small validation study. CONCLUSIONS: An imbalance between apoB and apoA-1 resulting in an increased apoB/apoA-1 ratio is strongly associated with the outcome MACE and its sub-components, in both men and women of all ages. An increased apoB/apoA-1 ratio already 2 decades before events calls for early recognition and primary prevention. Simple evidence-based cut values should be considered in future cardiovascular guidelines.

The association of apolipoproteins with later-life all-cause and cardiovascular mortality: a population-based study stratified by age.

Midlife lipid levels are important predictors of cardiovascular diseases, yet their association with mortality in older adults is less clear. We aimed to (1) identify lipid profiles based on cholesterol, triglycerides, and apolipoproteins using cluster analysis, and (2) investigate how lipid profiles and lipid levels at different ages are associated with later-life all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. We used data from 98,270 individuals in the Swedish AMORIS cohort who had blood measurements between 1985-1996 and were followed until 2012. Over the follow-up (mean 18.0 years), 30,730 (31.3%) individuals died. Three lipid profiles were identified. Compared with reference profile, a high lipid profile (low ApoA-I and high total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides, ApoB, and ApoB/ApoA-I ratio) at ages 39-59 or 60-79 was associated with higher all-cause mortality. A high lipid profile at ≥ 80 years, however, did not confer higher mortality. For the specific markers, high TC (≥ 7.25 mmol/L) was associated with higher all-cause mortality in ages 39-59 but lower mortality in ages 60-79 and ≥ 80. Low ApoA-I (< 1.28 g/L) and high ApoB/ApoA-I ratio (≥ 1.18), on the other hand, were associated with higher cardiovascular mortality regardless of age at lipid measurement, highlighting their potential relevance for survival in both young and older individuals.

Impaired fasting glucose: a risk factor for atrial fibrillation and heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Dysglycaemia is associated with overall cardiovascular disease even at prediabetes levels. The aim of this study was to explore the association between glucose levels and future risk of developing atrial fibrillation and heart failure, respectively. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study subjects from the Swedish AMORIS-cohort with fasting glucose from health examinations 1985-1996 without previous cardiovascular disease (N = 294,057) were followed to 31 December 2011 for incident atrial fibrillation or heart failure. Cox proportional hazard models with attained age as timescale and adjustments for sex, cholesterol, triglycerides, and socioeconomic status were used to estimate hazard ratios by glucose categorized groups (normal glucose 3.9-6.0 mmol/L, impaired fasting glucose; 6.1-6.9 mmol/L, undiagnosed diabetes ≥ 7.0 mmol/L, and diagnosed diabetes). RESULTS: During a mean follow-up time of 19.1 years 28,233 individuals developed atrial fibrillation and 25,604 developed heart failure. The HR for atrial fibrillation was 1.19 (95% confidence interval 1.13-1.26) for impaired fasting glucose, 1.23 (1.15-1.32) for undiagnosed diabetes and 1.30 (1.21-1.41) for diagnosed diabetes. Corresponding figures for heart failure were; 1.40 (1.33-1.48), 2.11 (1.99-2.23), 2.22 (2.08-2.36) respectively. In a subset with BMI data (19%), these associations were attenuated and for atrial fibrillation only remained statistically significant among subjects with diagnosed diabetes (HR 1.25; 1.02-1.53). CONCLUSIONS: Fasting glucose at prediabetes levels is associated with development of atrial fibrillation and heart failure. To some extent increased BMI may drive this association.

Serum Total Bilirubin and Risk of Cancer: A Swedish Cohort Study and Meta-Analysis.

Bilirubin has strong antioxidant properties that have been hypothesized to be preventive against the development of cancer. Thus, we aimed to investigate the association between serum total bilirubin (STB) and risk of overall and site-specific cancers in the large Swedish Apolipoprotein Mortality Risk (AMORIS) cohort. We also performed a systematic review and meta-analysis for specific cancer types (colorectal, breast and lung). We found no association between high levels of STB and risk of overall cancer. Regarding site-specific cancer, there was an inverse association between increased STB and lung cancer (Hazard Ratio (HR) for the 4th quartile (Q4) vs. Q1: 0.50; 95%CI: 0.44-0.59) and gynecological cancer (HR for Q4 vs. Q1: 0.86; 95%CI: 0.76-0.99). A positive association was found with melanoma (HR for Q4 vs. Q1: 1.25; 95%CI: 1.06-1.47) and breast cancer (HR for Q4 vs. Q1: 1.13; 95%CI: 1.01-1.25) risk. The meta-analysis showed an inverse association between high levels of STB and risk of lung cancer (Relative risk (RR): 0.69; 95%CI: 0.55-0.86). No associations were seen for colorectal and breast cancer risk. Further studies are required to establish if bilirubin can be used as a biomarker for risk assessment and/or as a novel therapeutic target.

Association between serum markers of the humoral immune system and inflammation in the Swedish AMORIS study.

BACKGROUND: Although the onset of inflammatory cascades may profoundly influence the nature of antibody responses, the interplay between inflammatory and humoral (antibody) immune markers remains unclear. Thus, we explored the reciprocity between the humoral immune system and inflammation and assessed how external socio-demographic factors may influence these interactions. From the AMORIS cohort, 5513 individuals were identified with baseline measurements of serum humoral immune [immunoglobulin G, A & M (IgG, IgA, IgM)] and inflammation (C-reactive protein (CRP), albumin, haptoglobin, white blood cells (WBC), iron and total iron-binding capacity) markers measured on the same day. Correlation analysis, principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering were used to evaluate biomarkers correlation, variation and associations. Multivariate analysis of variance was used to assess associations between biomarkers and educational level, socio-economic status, sex and age. RESULTS: Frequently used serum markers for inflammation, CRP, haptoglobin and white blood cells, correlated together. Hierarchical clustering and principal component analysis confirmed the interaction between these main biological responses, showing an acute response component (CRP, Haptoglobin, WBC, IgM) and adaptive response component (Albumin, Iron, TIBC, IgA, IgG). A socioeconomic gradient associated with worse health outcomes was observed, specifically low educational level, older age and male sex were associated with serum levels that indicated infection and inflammation. CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate that serum markers of the humoral immune system and inflammation closely interact in response to infection or inflammation. Clustering analysis presented two main immune response components: an acute and an adaptive response, comprising markers of both biological pathways. Future studies should shift from single internal marker assessment to multiple humoral and inflammation serum markers combined, when assessing risk of clinical outcomes such as cancer.

Elevated Apolipoprotein B/A-1 Ratio is Associated With an Increased Risk of Aortic Stenosis: Experience From the AMORIS Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Lipoproteins are associated with acquired aortic valve stenosis (AS). This study investigated whether an elevated apolipoprotein (apo)B/apoA-1 ratio was associated with an increased risk of AS and if this association was influenced by a history of a major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) defined as stroke, myocardial infarction or revascularisation. METHODS: A study was undertaken of 131,816 individuals, aged ≥30 years, from the Swedish Apolipoprotein MOrtality RISk (AMORIS) cohort, with measurements of apolipoproteins B and A-1 at health examinations during 1985-1996. RESULTS: There were fewer women and the average age was 4 years older in the highest apoB/apoA-1 quintile compared with the lowest. Being overweight, having reduced renal function and diabetes mellitus were more frequent. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride and apolipoprotein B levels were higher in the top apoB/apoA-1 quintile. During follow-up through 2011, non-rheumatic aortic valve disease was diagnosed in 2,999 individuals (2.3%). Using ICD-10 codes from 1997, AS was identified in 1,887 patients. An elevated apoB/apoA-1 ratio was associated with an increased incidence of aortic valve disease after multivariable adjustment [hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI) for the fifth vs first quintile of 1.28 (1.09-1.50)]. Restricting the analyses to incident AS during 1997-2011 yielded an HR of 1.41 (1.15-1.72). This increased incidence was primarily seen in women and individuals aged ≥65 years. History of MACE did not influence these associations. CONCLUSIONS: An elevated apoB/apoA-1 ratio was associated with an increased incidence of AS, particularly in women and individuals aged ≥65 years, regardless of previous MACE.

A Swedish primary healthcare prevention programme focusing on promotion of physical activity and a healthy lifestyle reduced cardiovascular events and mortality: 22-year follow-up of 5761 study participants and a reference group.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate long-term risk of first cardiovascular (CV) events, CV deaths and all-cause deaths in community-dwelling participants of a cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention programme delivered in a primary care setting. METHODS: Individuals who visited a primary healthcare service in Sollentuna (Sweden) and agreed to participate in the programme between 1988 and 1993 were followed. They had at least one CV risk factor but no prior myocardial infarction and received support to increase physical activity using the programme Physical Activity on Prescription and to adopt health-promoting behaviours including cooking classes, weight reduction, smoking cessation and stress management. Participants (n=5761) were compared with a randomly selected, propensity score-matched reference group from the general population in Stockholm County (n=34 556). All individuals were followed in Swedish registers until December 2011. RESULTS: In the intervention group and the reference group there were 698 (12.1%) and 4647 (13.4%) first CV events, 308 (5.3%) and 2261 (6.5%) CV deaths, and 919 (16.5%) and 6405 (18.5%) all-cause deaths, respectively, during a mean follow-up of 22 years. The HR (95% CI) in the intervention group compared with the reference group was 0.88 (0.81 to 0.95) for first CV events, 0.79 (0.70 to 0.89) for CV deaths and 0.83 (0.78 to 0.89) for all-cause deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Participation in a CVD prevention programme in primary healthcare focusing on promotion of physical activity and healthy lifestyle was associated with lower risk of CV events (12%), CV deaths (21%) and all-cause deaths (17%) after two decades. Promoting physical activity and healthy living in the primary healthcare setting may prevent CVD.

Repeated FIB-4 measurements can help identify individuals at risk of severe liver disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: It is unclear whether the identification of individuals at risk of cirrhosis using non-invasive tests can be improved by repeated measurements. Herein, we tested whether repeated measurements of fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) could improve the identification of individuals at risk of severe liver disease. METHODS: Data were derived from the population-based Swedish AMORIS cohort with baseline examinations from 1985-1996. FIB-4 was calculated at 2 time points within 5 years. Thereafter, we associated changes in FIB-4 with outcomes. Incident severe liver disease data was ascertained through linkage to Swedish national registers until 2011. Hazard ratios (HRs) and CIs for outcomes were calculated using Cox regression. RESULTS: Of 126,942 individuals with available FIB-4 data, 40,729 (32.1%) underwent a second test within 5 years (mean interval 2.4 years). During 613,376 person-years of follow-up, 581 severe liver disease events were documented (0.95/1,000 person-years). An increase of 1 unit in FIB-4 was associated with an elevated risk of severe liver disease (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.81; 95% CI 1.67-1.96). Transitioning from a low- or intermediate- to a high-risk group was associated with an increased risk of severe liver disease compared with those consistently in the low-risk group (aHR 7.99 and 8.64, respectively). A particularly increased risk of severe liver disease was found in individuals defined as high risk at both tests (aHR 17.04; 95% CI 11.67-24.88). However, almost half of all events occurred in those consistently in the low-risk group. CONCLUSIONS: Repeated testing of FIB-4 within 5 years improves the identification of individuals at an increased risk of severe liver disease in the general population. However, the sensitivity is comparatively low and improved tests are needed for screening in a general population or primary care setting. LAY SUMMARY: The fibrosis-4 scoring system is often used to estimate the risk of advanced fibrosis in liver diseases. Herein, we found that changes in this score over time are associated with the risk of future severe liver disease in a population-based cohort. However, even if the prediction is improved by repeated testing, the overall ability of the score to predict future events is relatively low.

Serum Immunoglobulin G Is Associated With Decreased Risk of Pancreatic Cancer in the Swedish AMORIS Study.

Background: Emerging evidence points to potential roles of the humoral immune responses in the development of pancreatic cancer. Epidemiological studies have suggested involvement of viral and bacterial infections in pancreatic carcinogenesis. Experimental studies have reported high expression levels of antigens in pancreatic cancer cells. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the role of different components of humoral immunity in the context of pancreatic cancer. We evaluated associations between pre-diagnostic serum markers of the overall humoral immune system [immunoglobulin A (IgA), immunoglobulin G (IgG) and immunoglobulin M (IgM)], and the risk of pancreatic cancer in the Swedish Apolipoprotein-related MORtality RISk (AMORIS) study. Methods: We selected all participants (≥20 years old) with baseline measurements of IgA, IgG or IgM (n = 41,900, 136,221, and 29,919, respectively). Participants were excluded if they had a history of chronic pancreatitis and individuals were free from pancreatic cancer at baseline. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate risk of pancreatic cancer for medical cut-offs of IgA, IgG, and IgM. Results: Compared to the reference level of 6.10-14.99 g/L, risk of pancreatic cancer was elevated among those with IgG levels <6.10 g/L [HR: 1.69 (95% CI 0.99-2.87)], and an inverse association was observed among those with IgG levels ≥15.00 g/L [0.82 (95% CI 0.64-1.05); Ptrend = 0.027]. The association appeared to be stronger for women than men [HR: 0.64 (95% CI 0.43-0.97) and 0.95 (95% CI 0.69-1.29), respectively]. No associations were observed with IgA or IgM. Conclusion: An inverse association was observed between pre-diagnostic serum levels of IgG and risk of pancreatic cancer. Our findings highlight the need to further investigate the role of immune response in pancreatic cancer etiology.

Association of Serum Immunoglobulin Levels with Solid Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The nature of humoral immunity in carcinogenesis remains poorly understood. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we aimed to evaluate the association of serum immunoglobulin classes with solid cancer and test our hypothesis that the immune escape of tumors is accompanied by dysregulated systemic immunoglobulin class-switching. METHODS: Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, we systematically searched the Cochrane Library, Embase, and MEDLINE/PubMed databases for observational studies investigating the association between serum immunoglobulins (IgA, IgG, and IgM) and histologically confirmed diagnosis of solid cancer in adults. We selected case-control studies, including more than 20 cases, and those explicitly stating that no form of anticancer treatment was administered prior to immunoglobulin measurement. No eligible cohort studies were identified. The primary summary measure was the standardized mean difference (SMD) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) calculated using a random effects model. RESULTS: Pooling 11 eligible studies comparing serum IgA levels in 1,351 patients and 560 control subjects revealed a statistically significant SMD (1.50; 95% CI, 0.96-2.04). Nonsignificant SMDs were observed for the 14 selected studies investigating serum IgG [SMD, -0.02 (95% CI, -0.22 to 0.18)] and for the 10 studies reporting serum IgM [SMD, 0.11 (95% CI, -0.10 to 0.32)]. Substantial heterogeneity between studies was observed despite sensitivity analysis by immunoglobulin measurement method, control matching, type of cancer, stage of disease, and sequential study exclusion. CONCLUSIONS: Serum immunoglobulin levels in patients diagnosed with solid cancer might be skewed toward class-switching to IgA, possibly reflecting Th2-polarized immunity. IMPACT: Further combinatorial analyses of serum immunoglobulin isotypes alongside other immune parameters in databases and observational studies are warranted.

Ability of Noninvasive Scoring Systems to Identify Individuals in the Population at Risk for Severe Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Noninvasive scoring systems are used to identify persons with advanced liver fibrosis. We investigated the ability of scoring systems to identify individuals in the general population at risk for future liver-related events. METHODS: We collected data from the Swedish Apolipoprotein Mortality Risk cohort on persons 35 to 79 years old who had blood samples collected from 1985 through 1996. We collected APRI (n = 127,302), BARD (n = 75,303), FIB-4 (n = 126,941), Forns (n = 122,419), and the nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) fibrosis scores (NFS, n = 13,160). We ascertained incident cases of cirrhosis or complications by linking Swedish health data registers. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for severe liver disease at 5, 10, and a maximum follow-up time of 27 years. The predictive ability of the scores was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve and C-statistics analyses. Our specific aims were to investigate the predictive capabilities of scoring systems for fatal and nonfatal liver disease, determine which scoring system has the highest level of accuracy, and investigate the predictive abilities of the scoring systems in persons with a higher probability of NAFLD at baseline. RESULTS: A similar proportion of individuals evaluated by each scoring system developed cirrhosis or complications thereof (1.0%-1.4%). The incidence of any outcome was increased in intermediate- and high-risk groups compared with low-risk groups, with HRs at 10 years in the high-risk group ranging from 1.67 for the BARD score to 45.9 for the APRI score. The predictive abilities of all scoring systems decreased with time and were higher in men. All scoring systems were more accurate in persons with risk factors for NAFLD at baseline, with AUROCs reaching 0.83. CONCLUSIONS: Higher scores from noninvasive scoring systems to evaluate fibrosis are associated with an increased risk of cirrhosis in a general population, but their predictive ability is modest. Performance was better when patients were followed for shorter time periods and in persons with a higher risk of NAFLD, with AUROC values reaching 0.83. New scoring systems are needed to evaluate risk of fibrosis in the general population and in primary care.

Serum IgG Is Associated With Risk of Melanoma in the Swedish AMORIS Study.

Background: Relatively little is known about the role of the humoral immune system in melanoma. Tumor infiltrating B cells in melanoma patients have been associated with increased T cell activation in tumors as well as improved patient survival. Immunoglobulins may play an important part in the anti-tumor immune response. We hypothesized that increased levels of pre-diagnostic serum Ig may be protective against melanoma development. Hence, we evaluated associations between pre-diagnostic serum markers of the immunoglobulin A (IgA), IgG and IgM, and risk of developing melanoma in the Swedish Apolipoprotein-related MORtality RISk (AMORIS) study. Methods: Study participants aged ≥20 years with baseline measurements of IgG, IgA and IgM taken between 1985 and 1996 were selected (n = 29,876). All individuals were free from melanoma at baseline and 162 study participants developed melanoma during follow up. Cox proportional hazards regression was carried out for medical cut-offs of IgA, IgG, and IgM. Results: Compared to the reference level of 6.10-14.99 g/l, we observed a positive but not significant association with risk of melanoma for those with IgG levels <6.10 g/L [HR: 1.05 (95% CI 0.39-2.86)] and an inverse association for those with IgG levels ≥15.00 g/L [HR: 0.60 (95% CI 0.34-1.05); P trend = 0.08]. No associations with serum IgA or IgM were identified. Conclusions: The humoral response might provide a protective role against the development of melanoma, mediated through IgG. Further research is needed to characterize this response which may be exploitable for development of future therapies.

Peripheral immune biomarkers and neurodegenerative diseases: A prospective cohort study with 20 years of follow-up.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the associations of several blood immune biomarkers with the future risks of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and Parkinson disease in a prospective cohort study with 20 years of follow-up. METHODS: The Swedish Apolipoprotein-Related Mortality Risk study is a longitudinal cohort study including 812,073 participants with repeated blood biomarker measurements between 1985 and 1996 and a follow-up until 2011. Using a Cox model, we first estimated hazard ratios of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and Parkinson disease in relation to leukocytes, immunoglobulin G, haptoglobin, and uric acid. We further described the temporal changes of these biomarkers during the 20 years prior to the diagnosis of these diseases. RESULTS: A total of 585 incident cases of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and 3,769 incident cases of Parkinson disease were identified during the follow-up. Increasing concentrations of leukocytes, haptoglobin, and uric acid were associated with a lower risk of Parkinson disease. No statistically significant association was, however, noted between the studied biomarkers and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. Parkinson disease patients appeared to have lower levels of leukocytes and haptoglobin between 20 and 10 years before diagnosis and lower levels of uric acid during the 20 years before diagnosis, compared to controls, although statistically significant differences were only noted during parts of the respective time intervals after multivariable adjustment. No clear differences were noted between patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and controls. INTERPRETATION: If verified in studies of independent populations, our findings may suggest a different role of systemic inflammation on the risk of Parkinson disease compared to amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. ANN NEUROL 2019;86:913-926.

Chronic inflammation markers are associated with risk of pancreatic cancer in the Swedish AMORIS cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Nested case-control studies examining the association between serum markers of chronic inflammation, focused on three specific biomarkers (CRP, IL-8 and TNF-α), and risk of pancreatic cancer have reported no associations. In this study, we evaluated associations between standard pre-diagnostic serum markers of chronic inflammation (CRP, albumin, haptoglobin and leukocytes) and pancreatic cancer risk in the Swedish Apolipoprotein-related MORtality RISk (AMORIS) prospective cohort study. METHODS: We selected all participants (≥20 years old) with baseline measurements of CRP, albumin, haptoglobin and leukocytes between 1985 and 1996 (n = 61,597). Participants were excluded if they had a history of chronic pancreatitis and all individuals were free from pancreatic cancer at baseline. Cox proportional multivariable hazards regression analysis was carried out for medical cut-offs of CRP, albumin, haptoglobin and leukocytes. RESULTS: We observed an increased risk of pancreatic cancer for those individuals with higher levels of serum haptoglobin (≥1.4 g/L), CRP (≥10 mg/L) and leukocytes (≥10 × 109 cells/L) compared to those with haptoglobin levels < 1.4 g/L, CRP levels < 10 mg/L and Leukocyte levels < 10 × 109 cells/L [haptoglobin HR: 2.23 (95% CI 1.72-2.88), CRP HR: 1.32 (95% CI 1.00-1.74), leukocytes HR: 2.20 (95% CI 1.52-3.18)]. No associations were noted for serum albumin. CONCLUSIONS: We found an increased risk of pancreatic cancer associated with pre-diagnostic serum levels of haptoglobin, CRP and leukocytes. Our finding suggests a possible role of chronic inflammation in the aetiology of pancreatic cancer and highlight the need to further investigate this association.

Serum immunoglobulin levels and the risk of bladder cancer in the AMORIS Cohort.

BACKGROUND: The anti-tumour T-cell response in bladder cancer has been shown to correlate with response to treatment and prognosis. However, little is known about the role of humoral immunity in this highly immunogenic human cancer, which is characterised by a high mutation-associated neoantigen load and a strong response to immunotherapy. In the present study, we interrogated the Swedish Apolipoprotein Mortality Risk Study (AMORIS) to explore the relationship between pre-diagnostic serum immunoglobulin levels and the risk of developing bladder cancer. METHODS: Our analysis included all AMORIS participants aged 20 years or older, who had all three major serum immunoglobulins (IgA, IgM, IgG) recorded at the same baseline measurement (n = 29,876). All participants were free from bladder cancer at the time of measurement. Samples were obtained between 1985-1996, with follow-up information until 2011. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression was used to investigate the association between bladder cancer risk and different levels of pre-diagnostic serum immunoglobulins. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up period of 15.31 years, 163 (0.5%) individuals were diagnosed with bladder cancer. Multivariate Cox regression showed an inverse association between pre-diagnostic serum IgM levels ≥ 1.4 g/L and bladder cancer risk compared to serum IgM levels < 1.4 g/L [HR: 0.68 (95% CI 0.45-1.03)]. Corresponding associations could not be established for serum IgA or IgG. CONCLUSION: Our findings implicate serum IgM in the pathogenesis of bladder cancer and suggest that the concept of humoral immune surveillance against cancer warrants further mechanistic investigation.

Lipids, Apolipoproteins, and the Risk of Parkinson Disease.

RATIONALE: A complete picture of the associations of the most common lipid fractions, including total cholesterol (TC), LDL-C (low-density lipoprotein cholesterol), HDL-C (high-density lipoprotein cholesterol), triglycerides, and apolipoproteins, with the risk of Parkinson disease (PD), is lacking. OBJECTIVE: To assess the associations of lipids and apolipoproteins with the future risk of PD. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the AMORIS (Apolipoprotein-Related Mortality Risk) Study, we enrolled ≈600 000 participants during 1985 to 1996 in Stockholm, Sweden, with repeated measurements of TC, LDL-C, HDL-C, triglycerides, ApoB (apolipoprotein B), and ApoA-I (apolipoprotein A-I). The cohort was followed until the end of 2011, and incident cases of PD were identified through the Swedish Patient Register. We first used Cox models to estimate the associations of these biomarkers with later risk of PD. We further applied a Mendelian randomization analysis for TC, LDL-C, and triglycerides using the GWAS (Genome-wide association study) summary statistics from the public PD GWAS data and 23andMe PD cohorts with >800 000 individuals. One SD increase of TC was associated with a lower hazard of PD (hazard ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.87-0.94). Similar associations were observed for LDL-C (hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.88-0.98), triglycerides (hazard ratio, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.90-0.97), and ApoB (hazard ratio, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.85-0.97). A clear dose-response relation was also noted when using these biomarkers as categorical variables. A causal inverse association of TC, LDL-C, and triglycerides with PD risk was further suggested by the Mendelian randomization analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings reinforce that higher levels of TC, LDL-C, and triglycerides are associated with a lower future risk of PD and further suggest that these associations may be causal. The findings for ApoB in relation to PD risk are novel, and whether such association is causal needs to be examined.

Metabolic profiles to predict long-term cancer and mortality: the use of latent class analysis.

BACKGROUND: Metabolites are genetically and environmentally determined. Consequently, they can be used to characterize environmental exposures and reveal biochemical mechanisms that link exposure to disease. To explore disease susceptibility and improve population risk stratification, we aimed to identify metabolic profiles linked to carcinogenesis and mortality and their intrinsic associations by characterizing subgroups of individuals based on serum biomarker measurements. We included 13,615 participants from the Swedish Apolipoprotein MOrtality RISk Study who had measurements for 19 biomarkers representative of central metabolic pathways. Latent Class Analysis (LCA) was applied to characterise individuals based on their biomarker values (according to medical cut-offs), which were then examined as predictors of cancer and death using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: LCA identified four metabolic profiles within the population: (1) normal values for all markers (63% of population); (2) abnormal values for lipids (22%); (3) abnormal values for liver functioning (9%); (4) abnormal values for iron and inflammation metabolism (6%). All metabolic profiles (classes 2-4) increased risk of cancer and mortality, compared to class 1 (e.g. HR for overall death was 1.26 (95% CI: 1.16-1.37), 1.67 (95% CI: 1.47-1.90), and 1.21 (95% CI: 1.05-1.41) for class 2, 3, and 4, respectively). CONCLUSION: We present an innovative approach to risk stratify a well-defined population based on LCA metabolic-defined subgroups for cancer and mortality. Our results indicate that standard of care baseline serum markers, when assembled into meaningful metabolic profiles, could help assess long term risk of disease and provide insight in disease susceptibility and etiology.