Understanding the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence Severity Premium: Exploring Its Implementation and the Implications for Decision Making and Patient Access.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to evaluate the impact of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's (NICE) new severity modifier, which has replaced the end-of-life (EoL) premium, on future NICE recommendations, considering past decision-making patterns. METHODS: NICE technology appraisals (TAs) published between January 2020 and December 2022 were reviewed. Summary statistics were generated to assess how the new severity modifier might affect hypothetical decision making in historical TAs. RESULTS: A total of 138 data points were identified from 132 TAs. Although the EoL premium was applied in 46 appraisals (33%), 57 (39%) qualify for a severity-based quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) multiplier. Only 19 appraisals (14.6%) not receiving an EoL premium met the severity criteria, the majority (17) qualifying for a 1.2× multiplier. In appraisals predicted to meet the severity criteria, 45 (79%) were in oncology, making them 4.04 times (95% CI 1.91-9.02) more likely to qualify for a severity modifier than nononcology indications. Among historically EoL indications, 42 (91%) were predicted to meet the severity criteria, making them 14.8 times (95% CI 6.37-37.6) more likely to qualify for a severity modifier. CONCLUSIONS: The new severity modifier will predominantly benefit oncology indications, continuing their previous explicit prioritization under the EoL decision modifier. However, the new severity modifier is harder to achieve and less generous; only a fraction of appraisals qualify for the highest effective £51 000 per QALY threshold. The vast majority of indications previously approved at £50 000 per QALY would now need to meet a cost-effectiveness threshold of <£36 000. This may necessitate greater pricing flexibility from manufacturers and increase the likelihood of negative recommendations.

Anti-Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor Drugs Compared With Panretinal Photocoagulation for the Treatment of Proliferative Diabetic Retinopathy: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor drugs (anti-VEGFs) compared with panretinal photocoagulation (PRP) for treating proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) in the United Kingdom. METHODS: A discrete event simulation model was developed, informed by individual participant data meta-analysis. The model captures treatment effects on best corrected visual acuity in both eyes, and the occurrence of diabetic macular edema and vitreous hemorrhage. The model also estimates the value of undertaking further research to resolve decision uncertainty. RESULTS: Anti-VEGFs are unlikely to generate clinically meaningful benefits over PRP. The model predicted anti-VEGFs be more costly and similarly effective as PRP, generating 0.029 fewer quality-adjusted life-years at an additional cost of £3688, with a net health benefit of -0.214 at a £20 000 willingness-to-pay threshold. Scenario analysis results suggest that only under very select conditions may anti-VEGFs offer potential for cost-effective treatment of PDR. The consequences of loss to follow-up were an important driver of model outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Anti-VEGFs are unlikely to be a cost-effective treatment for early PDR compared with PRP. Anti-VEGFs are generally associated with higher costs and similar health outcomes across various scenarios. Although anti-VEGFs were associated with lower diabetic macular edema rates, the number of cases avoided is insufficient to offset the additional treatment costs. Key uncertainties relate to the long-term comparative effectiveness of anti-VEGFs, particularly considering the real-world rates and consequences of treatment nonadherence. Further research on long-term visual acuity and rates of vision-threatening complications may be beneficial in resolving uncertainties.

A Psychological Resilience Briefing Intervention for Helicopter Emergency Medical Service Observers.

OBJECTIVE: Helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS) observers may be at risk of negative psychological effects associated with exposure to traumatic events during shifts. This article describes a quality improvement project for HEMS observers at Essex & Herts Air Ambulance. METHODS: A psychological resilience briefing intervention (PRBi) was developed and delivered during induction training with 60 HEMS observers. The PRBi aimed to raise awareness of traumatic events that observers may experience and provided basic education on 5 domains, including likely forms of trauma exposure, possible psychological reactions, advice on coping strategies and supporting colleagues, and resources that they could use if required. The intervention was intended to bolster resilience and reduce posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms, and to encourage adaptive coping styles in observers. RESULTS: Observers learned from and valued the PRBi; statistically significant increases were observed in awareness of the 5 domains from pre- to post-delivery, and free-text responses cited a variety of benefits to the observers. There was no indication that the PRBi caused harm. CONCLUSION: The PRBi has now been included in the routine induction of observers at Essex & Herts Air Ambulance and has the potential to be repurposed for use in other settings, including medical schools.

Appraising the Costs of Genomic Testing for Histology-Independent Technologies: An Illustrative Example for NTRK Fusions.

OBJECTIVES: Histology-independent (HI) technologies are authorized for patients with advanced or metastatic cancer if they express a particular biomarker regardless of its position in the body. Although this represents an important advancement in cancer treatment, genomic testing to identify eligible individuals for HI technologies will require substantial investment and impact their cost-effectiveness. Estimating these costs is complicated by several issues, which affect not only the overall cost of testing but also the distribution of testing costs across tumor types. METHODS: Key issues that should be considered when evaluating the cost of genomic testing to identify those eligible for HI technologies are discussed. These issues are explored in illustrative analyses where costs of genomic testing for NTRK fusions in England for recently approved HI technologies are estimated. RESULTS: The prevalence of mutation, testing strategy adopted, and current testing provision affect the cost of identifying eligible patients. The illustrative analysis estimated the cost of RNA-based next-generation sequencing to identify 1 individual with an NTRK fusion ranged between £377 and £282 258. To improve cost-effectiveness, testing costs could be shared across multiple technologies. An estimated additional ∼4000 patients would need to be treated with other HI therapies for testing in patients with advanced or metastatic cancer to be cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: The cost of testing to identify individuals eligible for HI technologies affect the drug's cost-effectiveness. The cost of testing across tumor types varies owing to heterogeneity in the mutation's prevalence and current testing provision. The cost-effectiveness of HI technologies may be improved if testing costs could be shared across multiple agents.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Selective Internal Radiation Therapies Compared With Sorafenib for Treating Advanced Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma in the United Kingdom.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the cost-effectiveness of selective internal radiation therapy (SIRT) compared with sorafenib for the treatment of patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma in the United Kingdom, including a selected subgroup of patients who have been identified as benefiting from treatment with SIRT. METHODS: A de novo economic model was developed comparing SIRT with sorafenib using data from two large randomized controlled trials. The model structure comprised a decision tree representing the outcome of the work-up procedure, transitioning into a 3-state partitioned survival model to project long-term survival outcomes. Cost-effectiveness in a post hoc defined subgroup with low tumor burden and good liver function was explored. RESULTS: At list price, SIRT was predicted to be less costly but less effective than sorafenib with an estimated saving of £156 089 per quality-adjusted life-year forgone, with cost savings of £4589 and 0.029 fewer quality-adjusted life-years than sorafenib. Accounting for existing confidential discounts for sorafenib, two SIRTs were cost-effective at a £30 000 willingness-to-pay threshold compared with sorafenib when a discount for the technologies was introduced. In the subgroup with low tumor burden and good liver function, SIRT may be associated with greater survival benefits and cost savings. CONCLUSIONS: Accounting for confidential discounts, on average, SIRT technologies represent value for money in the whole advanced hepatocellular carcinoma population, being less effective but less costly than sorafenib. Results from a subgroup with low tumor burden and good liver function suggest that the cost-effectiveness of SIRTs may be maximized in this group, but further research is required to demonstrate the validity of effectiveness benefits.

Management of patients presenting to the emergency department with sudden onset severe headache: systematic review of diagnostic accuracy studies.

OBJECTIVE: Advances in imaging technologies have precipitated uncertainty and inconsistency in the management of neurologically intact patients presenting to the Emergency Department (ED) with non-traumatic sudden onset severe headache with a clinical suspicion of subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH). The objective of this systematic review was to evaluate diagnostic strategies in these patients. METHODS: Studies assessing any decision rule or diagnostic test for evaluating neurologically intact adults with a severe headache, reaching maximum intensity within 1 hour, were eligible. Eighteen databases (including MEDLINE and Embase) were searched. Quality was assessed using QUADAS-2. Where appropriate, hierarchical bivariate meta-analysis was used to synthesise diagnostic accuracy results. RESULTS: Thirty-seven studies were included. Eight studies assessing the Ottawa SAH clinical decision rule were pooled; sensitivity 99.5% (95% CI 90.8 to 100), specificity 24% (95% CI 15.5 to 34.4). Four studies assessing CT within 6 hours of headache onset were pooled; sensitivity 98.7% (95% CI 96.5 to 100), specificity 100% (95% CI 99.7 to 100). The sensitivity of CT beyond 6 hours was considerably lower (≤90%; 2 studies). Three studies assessing lumbar puncture (LP; spectrophotometric analysis) following negative CT were pooled; sensitivity 100% (95% CI 100 to 100), specificity 95% (95% CI 86.0 to 98.5). CONCLUSION: The Ottawa SAH Rule rules out further investigation in only a small proportion of patients. CT undertaken within 6 hours (with expertise of a neuroradiologist or radiologist who routinely interprets brain images) is highly accurate and likely to be sufficient to rule out SAH; CT beyond 6 hours is much less sensitive. The CT-LP pathway is highly sensitive for detecting SAH and some alternative diagnoses, although LP results in some false positive results.

Syringe services programs in the Bluegrass: Evidence of population health benefits using Kentucky Medicaid data.

PURPOSE: To evaluate whether Kentucky counties that established a new syringe services program realized a significant decline in the incidence rate of a set of infectious disease diagnoses commonly transmitted via injection drug use. METHODS: Longitudinal count models of within-county rates of newly diagnosed infections among populations at risk were estimated using Medicaid claims/encounters data. Generalized estimating equation models were used to report incident rate ratios of 6 diagnoses: (1) HIV; (2) hepatitis C; (3) hepatitis B; (4) osteomyelitis; (5) endocarditis; and (6) skin/soft tissue infection. To investigate whether a delay in effect was present, separate models were fit to estimate the effects of establishing a syringe services program: at its opening date, and again at 1, 3, and 6 months postopening date. FINDINGS: Taken together, the aggregated within-county incidence rate of these 6 diagnoses was significantly lower following the implementation of a syringe services program (P < .05). Our models estimated that counties which opted to open a syringe services program realized an approximate month-over-month decline in new diagnoses of 0.5% among the population at risk. CONCLUSIONS: These results lend further support to previous conclusions made in the public health literature regarding the efficacy of syringe services programs. Specifically, declines in incidence rates were observable beginning at 1 month post syringe services program opening. These results are particularly notable due to the typical setting in which these syringe services programs operated-rural communities of fewer than 40,000 residents.

Sobriety Treatment and Recovery Teams for families with co-occurring substance use and child maltreatment: A randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Co-occurring parental substance use and child maltreatment has increased in recent years and is associated with poor child welfare outcomes. The Sobriety Treatment and Recovery Teams (START) program was developed to meet the needs of these families. OBJECTIVE: A randomized controlled trial was implemented to compare START to usual child welfare services on three outcomes: out-of-home care (OOHC) placements; reunification; and subsequent child maltreatment. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: Families reported to child welfare services in Jefferson County, Kentucky, were eligible if they had a current finding of child maltreatment or services needed, substance use as a primary risk factor, a child under six years of age, and no other open child welfare cases. METHODS: Biased coin randomization was used for a control: treatment randomization ratio of 1:2. Analyses were conducted using intent-to-treat (ITT), though a subsample of families receiving services was also analyzed. Differences were assessed using t-tests, chi-square, and risk ratios. RESULTS: A total of 348 families including 526 children were randomized to START (n = 346) and usual services (n = 180). There were no significant differences between groups on the three outcomes in the ITT sample or the subsample that received services, though the START OOHC rate was 7 percentage points lower (relative difference: 21.6 %) and the reunification rate was 13 percentage points higher (relative difference: 27.6 %) in the subsample. CONCLUSIONS: Although differences between groups were not significantly different, the relative differences were meaningful and this is the third study showing lower rates of OOHC among START relative to usual services. Additionally, the START reunification rate is higher than the overall U.S. average in spite of notable risk factors.

Exploring Heterogeneity in Histology-Independent Technologies and the Implications for Cost-Effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence and a number of international health technology assessment agencies have recently undertaken appraisals of histology-independent technologies (HITs). A strong and untested assumption inherent in the submissions included identical clinical response across all tumour histologies, including new histologies unrepresented in the trial. Challenging this assumption and exploring the potential for heterogeneity has the potential to impact upon cost-effectiveness. METHOD: Using published response data for a HIT, a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) was used to identify heterogeneity in response and to estimate the probability of response for each histology included in single-arm studies, which informed the submission for the HIT, larotrectinib. The probability of response for a new histology was estimated. Results were inputted into a simplified response-based economic model using hypothetical parameters. Histology-independent and histology-specific incremental cost-effectiveness ratios accounting for heterogeneity were generated. RESULTS: The results of the BHM show considerable heterogeneity in response rates across histologies. The predicted probability of response estimated by the BHM is 60.9% (95% credible interval 16.0; 91.8%), lower than the naively pooled probability of 74.5%. A mean response probability of 56.9% (0.2; 99.9%) is predicted for an unrepresented histology. Based on the economic analysis, the probability of the hypothetical HIT being cost-effective under the assumption of identical response is 78%. Allowing for heterogeneity, the probability of various approval decisions being cost-effective ranges from 93% to 11%. CONCLUSIONS: Central to the challenge of reimbursement of HITs is the potential for heterogeneity. This study illustrates how heterogeneity in clinical effectiveness can result in highly variable and uncertain estimates of cost-effectiveness. This analysis can help improve understanding of the consequences of histology-independent versus histology-specific decisions.

Selective internal radiation therapies for unresectable early-, intermediate- or advanced-stage hepatocellular carcinoma: systematic review, network meta-analysis and economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma is the most common type of primary liver cancer. Treatment choice is dependent on underlying liver dysfunction and cancer stage. Treatment options include conventional transarterial therapies for patients with intermediate-stage disease and systemic therapy [e.g. sorafenib (Nexavar®; Bayer plc, Leverkusen, Germany)] for patients with advanced-stage disease. Selective internal radiation therapies deliver radiation to liver tumours via microspheres that are injected into the hepatic artery. There are three selective internal radiation therapies: TheraSphere™ [BTG Ltd, London, UK (now Boston Scientific, Marlborough, MA, USA)], SIR-Spheres® (Sirtex Medical Ltd, Woburn, MA, USA) and QuiremSpheres® (Quirem Medical BV, Deventer, the Netherlands). OBJECTIVE: To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of selective internal radiation therapies for treating patients with unresectable early-, intermediate- or advanced-stage hepatocellular carcinoma. METHODS: A search was undertaken to identify clinical effectiveness literature relating to selective internal radiation therapies and relevant comparators for the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma. Studies were critically appraised and summarised. The network of evidence was mapped to estimate the relative effectiveness of the different selective internal radiation therapies and comparator treatments. An economic analysis evaluated the cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: Twenty studies were included in the clinical effectiveness review. Two large randomised controlled trials rated as having a low risk of bias [SARAH: Vilgrain V, Pereira H, Assenat E, Guiu B, Ilonca AD, Pageaux GP, et al. Efficacy and safety of selective internal radiotherapy with yttrium-90 resin microspheres compared with sorafenib in locally advanced and inoperable hepatocellular carcinoma (SARAH): an open-label randomised controlled Phase 3 trial. Lancet Oncol 2017;18:1624-36; and SIRveNIB: Chow PKH, Gandhi M, Tan SB, Khin MW, Khasbazar A, Ong J, et al. SIRveNIB: selective internal radiation therapy versus sorafenib in Asia-Pacific patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. J Clin Oncol 2018;36:1913-21] found no significant difference in overall survival or progression-free survival between SIR-Spheres and sorafenib (systemic therapy) in an advanced population, despite greater tumour response in the SIR-Spheres arm of both trials. There were some concerns regarding generalisability of the SARAH and SIRveNIB trials to UK practice. All other studies of SIR-Spheres, TheraSphere or QuiremSpheres were either rated as being at a high risk of bias or caused some concerns regarding bias. A network meta-analysis was conducted in adults with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma who had Child-Pugh class A liver cirrhosis and were ineligible for conventional transarterial therapies. The analysis included the SARAH and SIRveNIB trials as well as a trial comparing lenvatinib (Kisplyx®; Eisai Ltd, Tokyo, Japan) (systemic therapy) with sorafenib. There were no meaningful differences in overall survival between any of the treatments. The base-case economic analysis suggested that TheraSphere may be cost-saving relative to both SIR-Spheres and QuiremSpheres. However, incremental cost differences between TheraSphere and SIR-Spheres were small. In a fully incremental analysis, which included confidential Patient Access Scheme discounts, lenvatinib was the most cost-effective treatment and dominated all selective internal radiation therapies. In pairwise comparisons of sorafenib with each selective internal radiation therapy, sorafenib also dominated all selective internal radiation therapies. LIMITATIONS: The existing evidence cannot provide decision-makers with clear guidance on the comparative effectiveness of treatments in early- and intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma or on the efficacy of TheraSphere or QuiremSpheres. CONCLUSIONS: In the advanced-stage hepatocellular carcinoma population, two large randomised trials have shown that SIR-Spheres have similar clinical effectiveness to sorafenib. None of the selective internal radiation therapies was cost-effective, being more costly and less effective than lenvatinib, both at list price and with Patient Access Scheme discounts. FUTURE WORK: Future studies may wish to include early- and intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma patients and the low tumour burden/albumin-bilirubin 1 subgroup of advanced-stage patients. Future high-quality studies evaluating alternative selective internal radiation therapies would be beneficial. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019128383. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 48. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Hepatocellular carcinoma is the most common type of liver cancer. The choice of treatment depends on the extent of the cancer and liver function. Selective internal radiation therapies deliver radiation directly to liver tumours via tiny beads injected into the main blood vessel into the liver. There are three selective internal radiation therapies: TheraSphere™ [BTG Ltd, London, UK (now Boston Scientific, Marlborough, MA, USA)], SIR-Spheres^® (Sirtex Medical Ltd, Woburn, MA, USA) and QuiremSpheres^® (Quirem Medical BV, Deventer, the Netherlands). Our aim was to assess the clinical effectiveness of selective internal radiation therapies for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma that is not treatable by surgery, and to assess whether or not these therapies represent good value for money. There was no meaningful difference between SIR-Spheres and sorafenib (Nexavar^®; Bayer plc, Leverkusen, Germany), which is a cancer drug for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma. Studies of other selective internal radiation therapies and studies in patients with less advanced disease were generally of poor quality, so their results may not be reliable. We could not assess whether or not selective internal radiation therapies are beneficial to patients with early- or intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma, or whether or not TheraSphere and QuiremSpheres are beneficial. Compared with sorafenib or lenvatinib (Kisplyx^®; Eisai Ltd, Tokyo, Japan) (another systemic cancer drug), none of the selective internal radiation therapies were good value for money for treating patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma. We found that TheraSphere might be cheaper than SIR-Spheres and QuiremSpheres, but differences between TheraSphere and SIR-Spheres were small. There was not enough evidence for patients with early or intermediate disease to say whether or not selective internal radiation therapy is good value for treating these patients. Future studies in these populations, alongside any studies comparing the selective internal radiation therapies against each other, would be helpful.

Methods for selecting the best evidence to inform a NICE technology appraisal on selective internal radiation therapies for hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Systematic reviews of medical devices are particularly challenging as the quality of evidence tends to be more limited than evidence on pharmaceutical products. This article describes the methods used to identify, select and critically appraise the best available evidence on selective internal radiation therapy devices for treating hepatocellular carcinoma, to inform a technology appraisal for the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. METHODS: A comprehensive search of ten medical databases and six grey literature sources was undertaken to identify studies of three devices (TheraSphere®, SIR-Spheres® and QuiremSpheres®) for treating hepatocellular carcinoma. The large evidence base was scoped before deciding what level of evidence to include for data extraction and critical appraisal. The methodological quality of the included studies was assessed using criteria relevant to each study design. RESULTS: Electronic searches identified 4755 records; over 1000 met eligibility criteria after screening titles and abstracts. A hierarchical process was used to scope these records, prioritising comparative studies over non-comparative studies, where available. One hundred ninety-four full papers were ordered; 64 met the eligibility criteria. For each intervention, studies were prioritised by study design and applicability to current UK practice, resulting in 20 studies subjected to critical appraisal and data extraction. Only two trials had a low overall risk of bias. In view of the poor quality of the research evidence, our technology appraisal focused on the two higher quality trials, including a thorough critique of their reliability and generalisability to current UK practice. The 18 poorer quality studies were briefly summarised; many were very small and results were often contradictory. No definitive conclusions could be drawn from the poorer quality research evidence available. CONCLUSIONS: A systematic, pragmatic process was used to select and critically appraise the vast quantity of research evidence available in order to present the most reliable evidence on which to develop recommendations. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42019128383.

Mental health care for medical staff and affiliated healthcare workers during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic is an unprecedented challenge for society. Supporting the mental health of medical staff and affiliated healthcare workers (staff) is a critical part of the public health response. This paper details the effects on staff and addresses some of the organisational, team and individual considerations for supporting staff (pragmatically) during this pandemic. Leaders at all levels of health care organisations will find this a valuable resource.

Motivational Interviewing in Child Welfare Services: A Systematic Review.

Families in the child welfare (CW) system who cannot be engaged in services are at high risk of negative outcomes. As motivational interviewing (MI) has been shown to improve engagement in similar contexts. This study aimed to systematically review MI with CW families as well as MI training with CW workers and social work students training to become CW workers. The review used Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines and searched multiple databases in June 2018. In September 2019, the initial search was repeated with additional searches to identify gray literature. Eight studies described the acquisition of MI among CW workers or student trainees, and 11 studies evaluated the impact of MI on families in CW. MI's impact on some family outcomes, such as engagement in services, was mixed, though MI paired with other evidence-based treatments showed positive effects. With regard to training CW workers and students in MI, differences in training duration, intensity, and modality make conclusions difficult, though trainees generally described MI favorably and some studies showed training increased worker empathy and self-efficacy. Importantly, few published studies have evaluated whether MI-trained CW workers impact out-of-home-care placement, and no studies have evaluated their impact on maltreatment.

Tisagenlecleucel for the Treatment of Relapsed or Refractory B-cell Acute Lymphoblastic Leukaemia in People Aged up to 25 Years: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal.

As part of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's (NICE's) Single Technology Appraisal (STA) process, Novartis submitted evidence on the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of tisagenlecleucel for treating paediatric and young adult patients (under the age of 25 years) with relapsed or refractory (r/r) B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL). This article presents a summary of the Evidence Review Group's (ERG's) independent review of the evidence submission, the committee's deliberations, and the subsequent development of NICE guidance for the use of tisagenlecleucel on the National Health Service (NHS) in England. Tisagenlecleucel is a chimeric antigen receptor-modified T-cell (CAR-T) product, the first of this emerging therapeutic class to be considered by NICE in this indication. The company's evidence submission was based upon three single-arm, phase II studies: ELIANA, ENSIGN, and B2101J. These trials demonstrated a beneficial effect of tisagenlecleucel, with significant extensions in event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS) compared to historical control datasets on blinatumomab and salvage chemotherapy. Adverse events were common; 77% of patients suffered from cytokine release syndrome (CRS), 56% of whom required intensive care unit-level care. The ERG did not consider clofarabine monotherapy an appropriate proxy for salvage chemotherapy. The company presented a hybrid cost-effectiveness model, combining a decision tree and three-state partitioned survival model structure. The majority of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained were generated through additional life-years in the extrapolated 'long-term survival' phase of the model, where patients were assumed to be 'cured'. The ERG considered the results to be subject to substantial uncertainty, due in part to immature trial data, unresolved long-term treatment effects, and a lack of appropriate comparator data. The ERG implemented a number of changes to the company's model in an alternative base case, producing deterministic incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of £45,397 per QALY gained versus salvage chemotherapy, and £27,732 versus blinatumomab. The probabilistic model produced ICERs of £48,265 per QALY gained versus salvage chemotherapy, and £29,501 versus blinatumomab. The committee considered the ERG's analysis to be most closely aligned with their preferred assumptions, and did not consider tisagenlecleucel to meet both of the end-of-life (EoL) criteria. In recognition of the innovative nature of tisagenlecleucel, and the present immaturity of ongoing clinical trials, the committee considered further data collection would be valuable in resolving uncertainties around OS, the technology's novel mechanism of action, and the management of CRS and B-cell aplasia. The committee therefore recommended tisagenlecleucel for use in the Cancer Drugs Fund (CDF) until the conclusion of the ELIANA study (June 2023). This appraisal highlighted the difficulty of interpreting EoL criteria in the context of curative therapies and the valuation of cure versus extension of life. Further clarification of NICE's position in these situations may be necessary to ensure consistency and equity in their decision-making.

Adjunctive colposcopy technologies for assessing suspected cervical abnormalities: systematic reviews and economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Dynamic Spectral Imaging System (DySIS)map (DySIS Medical Ltd, Edinburgh, UK) and ZedScan (Zilico Limited, Manchester, UK) can be used adjunctively with conventional colposcopy, which may improve the detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and cancer. OBJECTIVES: To systematically review the evidence on the diagnostic accuracy, clinical effectiveness and implementation of DySISmap and ZedScan as adjuncts to standard colposcopy, and to develop a cost-effectiveness model. METHODS: Four parallel systematic reviews were performed on diagnostic accuracy, clinical effectiveness issues, implementation and economic analyses. In January 2017 we searched databases (including MEDLINE and EMBASE) for studies in which DySISmap or ZedScan was used adjunctively with standard colposcopy to detect CIN or cancer in women referred to colposcopy. Risk of bias was assessed with the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS)-2 tool. Summary estimates of diagnostic accuracy were calculated using bivariate and other regression models when appropriate. Other outcomes were synthesised narratively. A patient-level state-transition model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of DySISmap and ZedScan under either human papillomavirus (HPV) triage or the HPV primary screening algorithm. The model included two types of clinics ['see and treat' and 'watchful waiting' (i.e. treat later after confirmatory biopsy)], as well as the reason for referral (low-grade or high-grade cytological smear). Sensitivity and scenario analyses were undertaken. RESULTS: Eleven studies were included in the diagnostic review (nine of DySISmap and two of ZedScan), three were included in the clinical effectiveness review (two of DySISmap and one of ZedScan) and five were included in the implementation review (four of DySISmap and one of ZedScan). Adjunctive DySISmap use was found to have a higher sensitivity for detecting CIN grade 2+ (CIN 2+) lesions [81.25%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 72.2% to 87.9%] than standard colposcopy alone (57.91%, 95% CI 47.2% to 67.9%), but with a lower specificity (70.40%, 95% CI 59.4% to 79.5%) than colposcopy (87.41%, 95% CI 81.7% to 91.5%). (Confidential information has been removed.) The base-case cost-effectiveness results showed that adjunctive DySISmap routinely dominated standard colposcopy (it was less costly and more effective). The only exception was for high-grade referrals in a watchful-waiting clinic setting. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for ZedScan varied between £272 and £4922 per quality-adjusted life-year. ZedScan also dominated colposcopy alone for high-grade referrals in see-and-treat clinics. These findings appeared to be robust to a wide range of sensitivity and scenario analyses. LIMITATIONS: All but one study was rated as being at a high risk of bias. There was no evidence directly comparing ZedScan with standard colposcopy. No studies directly compared DySIS and ZedScan. CONCLUSIONS: The use of adjunctive DySIS increases the sensitivity for detecting CIN 2+, so it increases the number of high-grade CIN cases that are detected. However, it also reduces specificity, so that more women with no or low-grade CIN will be incorrectly judged as possibly having high-grade CIN. The evidence for ZedScan was limited, but it appears to increase sensitivity and decrease specificity compared with colposcopy alone. The cost-effectiveness of both adjunctive technologies compared with standard colposcopy, under both the HPV triage and primary screening algorithms, appears to be favourable when compared with the conventional thresholds used to determine value in the NHS. FUTURE WORK: More diagnostic accuracy studies of ZedScan are needed, as are studies assessing the diagnostic accuracy for women referred to colposcopy as part of the HPV primary screening programme. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42017054515. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Factors Associated With Successful MRI Scanning in Unsedated Young Children.

Introduction: Young children are often unable to remain still for magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), leading to unusable images. Various preparation methods may increase success, though it is unclear which factors best predict success. Here, in a retrospective sample, we describe factors associated with successful scanning in unsedated young children. We hypothesized that the mock scanner training and fewer behavior problems would result in higher success rates. Methods: We recruited 134 children aged 2.0-5.0 years for an MRI study. We compared success between children whose parents opted for mock scanner training (n = 20) or not (n = 114), and evaluated demographic and cognitive factors that predicted success. Results: Ninety-seven children (72%) completed at least one MRI sequence successfully on their first try; 64 children (48%) provided high-quality data for all 3 structural imaging sequences. Cognitive scores were higher in successful than unsuccessful children. Children who received mock scanner training were no more likely to be successful than children without, though they had slightly higher scores on T1 image quality. Conclusions: Our data shows that scanning with minimial preparation is possible in young children, and suggests limited advantages of mock scanner preparation for healthy young children.Cognitive ability may predict success.

Ustekinumab for Treating Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease after Prior Therapy: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal.

As part of the single technology appraisal (STA) process, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited Janssen to submit evidence on the clinical and cost effectiveness of their drug ustekinumab, an interleukin-12/23 inhibitor, for treating moderate-to-severe active Crohn's disease (CD). The Centre for Reviews and Dissemination (CRD) and Centre for Health Economics (CHE) Technology Appraisal Group at the University of York was commissioned to act as the independent Evidence Review Group (ERG). This article provides a description of the Company's submission, the ERG's critical review of submitted evidence, and the resulting NICE guidance. The main supporting clinical evidence was derived from four well conducted, randomised controlled trials, comparing ustekinumab with placebo in two sub-populations (conventional care failure and anti-TNFα failure patients) of adults with moderate-to-severe CD. Three trials assessed treatment induction over 8 weeks, while the fourth recruited successfully induced patients into a maintenance trial for 1 year. These trials showed ustekinumab to be more effective than placebo in terms of its ability to induce and maintain clinical response and remission. In the absence of any direct head-to-head data, the Company conducted a network meta-analysis (NMA), which synthesised induction trial data on ustekinumab and relevant comparators (vedolizumab, adalimumab and infliximab) using placebo data as a common comparator. This analysis found ustekinumab to be of comparable efficacy to previously approved biologics in treatment induction. A 'treatment sequence analysis' compared long-term treatment efficacy, finding ustekinumab to be comparable in maintaining treatment response and remission to the three other biologic therapies. However, the ERG had identified many limitations and potential bias in this analysis, and urged caution when interpreting the results. The Company's economic model estimated ustekinumab to be dominant in both sub-populations compared with conventional care; however, the ERG's preferred base-case estimated an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £109,279 in the conventional care failure sub-population, and £110,967 in the anti-TNFα failure sub-population when compared with conventional care. However, the ERG identified significant failings in both the model structure and data inputs, which could not be addressed without complete restructuring. The ERG considered that the economic analysis presented by the Company failed to adequately address the decision problem specified in NICE's scope. The NICE Appraisal Committee recommended ustekinumab within its market authorisation, on the grounds of sufficiently similar efficacy and costs to previously recommended biologic therapies. However, the ERG's analyses demonstrated that all currently recommended biologics are unlikely to be cost effective relative to conventional care, raising broader questions regarding the appropriateness of cost-comparison exercises for decision making.

Brain white matter structure and language ability in preschool-aged children.

Brain alterations are associated with reading and language difficulties in older children, but little research has investigated relationships between early language skills and brain white matter structure during the preschool period. We studied 68 children aged 3.0-5.6 years who underwent diffusion tensor imaging and participated in assessments of Phonological Processing and Speeded Naming. Tract-based spatial statistics and tractography revealed relationships between Phonological Processing and diffusion parameters in bilateral ventral white matter pathways and the corpus callosum. Phonological Processing was positively correlated with fractional anisotropy and negatively correlated with mean diffusivity. The relationships observed in left ventral pathways are consistent with studies in older children, and demonstrate that structural markers for language performance are apparent as young as 3 years of age. Our findings in right hemisphere areas that are not as commonly found in adult studies suggest that young children rely on a widespread network for language processing that becomes more specialized with age.