ABSTRACT
In this paper, we investigate the relationship between the air pollution and tuberculosis cases and its prediction in Jiangsu, China by using the time-series analysis method, and find that the seasonal ARIMA(1, 1, 0)×(0, 1, 1)12 model is the preferred model for predicting the TB cases in Jiangsu, China. Furthermore, we evaluate the relationship between AQI, PM2.5, PM10 and the number of TB cases, and find that the prediction accuracy of the ARIMA model is improved by adding monthly PM2.5 with 0-month lag as an external variable, i.e., ARIMA(1, 1, 0)×(0, 1, 1)12+PM2.5. The results show that ARIMAX model can be a useful tool for predicting TB cases in Jiangsu, China, and it can provide a scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of TB.
Subject(s)
Air Pollutants , Air Pollution , Tuberculosis, Pulmonary , Tuberculosis , Air Pollutants/analysis , China/epidemiology , Humans , Tuberculosis/epidemiology , Tuberculosis, Pulmonary/epidemiologyABSTRACT
This paper performs qualitative analysis on a reaction-diffusion SIRS epidemic system with ratio-dependent incidence rate in spatially heterogeneous environment. The threshold dynamics in the term of the basic reproduction number R0 is established. And the asymptotic profile of endemic equilibrium is determined if the diffusion rate of the susceptible individuals is small. The results show that restricting the movement of susceptible individuals can effectively control the number of infectious individuals.
Subject(s)
Basic Reproduction Number , Communicable Disease Control , Epidemics , Algorithms , Communicable Diseases/epidemiology , Disease Susceptibility/epidemiology , Humans , Incidence , Models, Biological , Stochastic ProcessesABSTRACT
In this paper, we make a detailed descriptions for the local and global bifurcation structure of nonconstant positive steady states of a modified Holling-Tanner predator-prey system under homogeneous Neumann boundary condition. We first give the stability of constant steady state solution to the model, and show that the system exhibits Turing instability. Second, we establish the local structure of the steady states bifurcating from double eigenvalues by the techniques of space decomposition and implicit function theorem. It is shown that under certain conditions, the local bifurcation can be extended to the global bifurcation.
