Cost effectiveness of implantable cardioverter defibrillators for 1.5 primary prevention of sudden cardiac arrest in China: an analysis from the Improve SCA study.

OBJECTIVES: Implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICDs) for primary prevention (PP) of sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) is underutilized in developing countries. The Improve SCA study has identified a subset of 1.5 primary prevention (1.5PP) patients with a higher risk of SCA and a significant mortality benefit from ICD therapy. From the perspective of China's healthcare system, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of ICD therapy vs. no ICD therapy among 1.5PP patients with a view to informing clinical and policy decisions. METHODS: A published Markov model was adjusted and verified to simulate the course of the disease and describe different health states of 1.5PP patients. The patient characteristics, mortality, utility and complication estimates were obtained from the Improve SCA study and other literature. Cost inputs were sourced from government tender prices, medical service prices and clinical experts' surveys in 9 Chinese public hospitals. For both ICD and no ICD therapy, the total medical costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were modelled over a lifetime horizon and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the uncertainty of the model parameters. We used the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold recommended by China Guidelines for Pharmacoeconomic Evaluations, one to three times China's GDP per capita (CNY85,698-CNY257,094) in 2022 Chinese Yuan. RESULTS: The incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) of ICD therapy compared to no ICD therapy is 139,652 CNY/QALY, which is about 1-2 times China's GDP per capita. The probability that ICD therapy is cost effective was 92.1%. Results from sensitivity analysis supported the findings of the base case. CONCLUSIONS: ICD therapy compared to no ICD therapy is cost-effective for the 1.5PP patients in China.

A comprehensive value-based method for new nuclear medical service pricing: with case study of radium [223Ra] bone metastases treatment.

IMPORTANCE: Innovative nuclear medicine services offer substantial clinical value to patients. However, these advancements often come with high costs. Traditional payment strategies do not incentivize medical institutes to provide new services nor determine the fair price for payers. A shift towards a value-based pricing strategy is imperative to address these challenges. Such a strategy would reconcile the cost of innovation with incentives, foster transparent allocation of healthcare resources, and expedite the accessibility of essential medical services. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to develop and present a comprehensive, value-based pricing model for new nuclear medicine services, illustrated explicitly through a case study of the radium [223Ra] treatment for bone metastases. In constructing the pricing model, we have considered three primary value determinants: the cost of the new service, associated service risk, and the difficulty of the service provision. Our research can help healthcare leaders design an evidence-based Fee-For-Service (FFS) payment reference pricing with nuclear medicine services and price adjustments. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: This multi-center study was conducted from March 2021 to February 2022 (including consultation meetings) and employed both qualitative and quantitative methodologies. We organized focus group consultations with physicians from nuclear medicine departments in Beijing, Chongqing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai to standardize the treatment process for radium [223Ra] bone metastases. We used a specially designed 'Radium Nuclide [223Ra] Bone Metastasis Data Collection Form' to gather nationwide resource consumption data to extract information from local databases. Four interviews with groups of experts were conducted to determine the add-up ratio, based on service risk and difficulty. The study organized consultation meeting with key stakeholders, including policymakers, service providers, clinical researchers, and health economists, to finalize the pricing equation and the pricing result of radium [223Ra] bone metastases service. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: We developed and detailed a pricing equation tailored for innovative services in the nuclear medicine department, illustrating its application through a step-by-step guide. A standardized service process was established to ensure consistency and accuracy. Adhering to best practice guidelines for health cost data analysis, we emphasized the importance of cross-validation of data, where validated data demonstrated less variation. However, it required a more advanced health information system to manage and analyze the data inputs effectively. RESULTS: The standardized service of radium [223Ra] bone metastases includes: pre-injection assessment, treatment plan, administration, post-administration monitoring, waste disposal and monitoring. The average duration for each stage is 104 min, 39 min, 25 min, 72 min and 56 min. A standardized monetary value for medical consumables is 54.94 yuan ($7.6), and the standardised monetary value (medical consumables cost plus human input) is 763.68 yuan ($109.9). Applying an agreed value add-up ratio of 1.065, the standardized value is 810.19 yuan ($116.9). Feedback from a consultation meeting with policymakers and health economics researchers indicates a consensus that the pricing equation developed was reasonable and well-grounded. CONCLUSION: This research is the first study in the field of nuclear medicine department pricing methodology. We introduce a comprehensive value-based nuclear medical service pricing method and use radium[223Ra] bone metastases treatment pricing in China as a case study. This study establishes a novel pricing framework and provides practical instructions on its implementation in a real-world healthcare setting.

Development and initial validation of the career resilience instrument for CDC emergency responders in China within the context of public health emergencies: based on a survey conducted in Shanghai.

Background: China faces various public health emergencies, and emergency responders at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC emergency responders) are a mainstay in responding to public health emergencies. Career resilience can help CDC emergency responders to effectively respond to and recover from public health emergencies, but there is no specific measurement instrument available. In this study, we aimed to develop and conduct an initial validation of the career resilience instrument for CDC emergency responders in China within the context of public health emergencies from a process perspective. Methods: Based on a survey conducted in Shanghai, interpretive phenomenological analysis (IPA), which is a qualitative research approach to describing and analyzing individual experiences, was used to analyze the interview texts to develop the initial career resilience instrument for CDC emergency responders. The initial career resilience instrument was revised through two rounds of expert consultation. Cronbach's α coefficient and exploratory factor analysis were used to test the reliability and validity of the revised career resilience instrument. Results: The initial career resilience instrument for CDC emergency responders contained three first-level measurement dimensions, 9 second-level measurement dimensions, and 52 measurement items. After expert consultation, the first-level and second-level measurement dimensions were not revised, 13 measurement items were deleted or revised, and six measurement items were added, resulting in 48 measurement items. The revised career resilience instrument was tested for good reliability and validity. Conclusion: Career resilience for CDC emergency responders can be regarded as a set of protective factors and dynamic processes that can be cultivated and intervened in cognitive, affective, and behavioral dimensions to improve their ability to respond to and recover from public health emergencies.

The use of artificial intelligence in the treatment of rare diseases: A scoping review.

With the increasing application of artificial intelligence (AI) in medicine and healthcare, AI technologies have the potential to improve the diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis of rare diseases. Presently, existing research predominantly focuses on the areas of diagnosis and prognosis, with relatively fewer studies dedicated to the domain of treatment. The purpose of this review is to systematically analyze the existing literature on the application of AI in the treatment of rare diseases. We searched three databases for related studies, and established criteria for the selection of retrieved articles. From the 407 unique articles identified across the three databases, 13 articles from 8 countries were selected, which investigated 10 different rare diseases. The most frequently studied rare disease group was rare neurologic diseases (n = 5/13, 38.46%). Among the four identified therapeutic domains, 7 articles (53.85%) focused on drug research, with 5 specifically focused on drug discovery (drug repurposing, the discovery of drug targets and small-molecule inhibitors), 1 on pre-clinical studies (drug interactions), and 1 on clinical studies (information strength assessment of clinical parameters). Across the selected 13 articles, we identified total 32 different algorithms, with random forest (RF) being the most commonly used (n = 4/32, 12.50%). The predominant purpose of AI in the treatment of rare diseases in these articles was to enhance the performance of analytical tasks (53.33%). The most common data source was database data (35.29%), with 5 of these studies being in the field of drug research, utilizing classic databases such as RCSB, PDB and NCBI. Additionally, 47.37% of the articles highlighted the existing challenge of data scarcity or small sample sizes.

Alzheimer's disease with frailty: Prevalence, screening, assessment, intervention strategies and challenges.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disorder that affects millions worldwide and is expected to surge in prevalence due to aging populations. Frailty, characterized by muscle function decline, becomes more prevalent with age, imposing substantial burdens on patients and caregivers. This paper aimed to comprehensively review the current literature on AD coupled with frailty, encompassing prevalence, screening, assessment, and treatment while delving into the field's challenges and future trajectories. Frailty and AD coexist in more than 30% of cases, with hazard ratios above 120% indicating a mutually detrimental association.Various screening tools have emerged for both frailty and AD, including the Fried Frailty Phenotype (FP), FRAIL scale, Edmonton Frailty Scale (EFS), Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA), Clock Drawing Test (CDT), and General Practitioner Assessment of Cognition (GPCOG). However, none has solidified its role as the definitive gold standard. The convergence of electronic health records and brain aging biomarkers heralds a new era in AD with frailty screening and assessment. In terms of intervention, non-pharmacological strategies spanning nutrition, horticulture, exercise, and social interaction, along with pharmacological approaches involving acetylcholinesterase inhibitors (AChEIs), N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptor antagonists, and anti-amyloid beta-protein medications, constituted cornerstones for treating AD coupled with frailty. Technological interventions like repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) also entered the fold. Notably, multi-domain non-pharmacological interventions wield considerable potential in enhancing cognition and mitigating disability. However, the long-term efficacy and safety of pharmacological interventions necessitate further validation. Diagnosing and managing AD with frailty present several daunting challenges, encompassing low rates of early co-diagnosis, limited clinical trial evidence, and scarce integrated, pioneering service delivery models. These challenges demand heightened attention through robust research and pragmatic implementation.

Cost-effectiveness of stereotactic body radiotherapy versus conventional fractionated radiotherapy for medically inoperable, early-stage non-small cell lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: Stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) is a novel radio-therapeutic technique that has recently emerged as standard-of-care treatment for medically inoperable, early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). In this study, we compared the cost-effectiveness of SBRT with that of conventional fractionated radiotherapy (CFRT) in patients with medically inoperable, early-stage NSCLC from the perspective of the Chinese health system. METHODS: A Markov model was developed to describe health states of patients after treatment with SBRT and CFRT. The recurrence risks, treatment toxicities, and utilities inputs were obtained from the literature. The costs were based on listed prices and real-world evidence. A simulation was conducted to determine the post-treatment lifetime years. For each treatment, the total costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) per QALY were calculated. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the uncertainty of the model parameters. RESULTS: In the base case analysis, SBRT was associated with a mean cost of USD16,933 and 2.05 QALYs, whereas CFRT was associated with a mean cost of USD17,726 and 1.61 QALYs. SBRT is a more cost-effective strategy compared with CFRT for medically inoperable, early-stage NSCLC, with USD 1802 is saved for every incremental QALY. This result was validated by DSA and PSA, in which SBRT remained the most cost-effective option. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggested that, compared to CFRT, SBRT may be considered a more cost-effective strategy for medically inoperable, early-stage NSCLC.

Comparison of Rare and Common Diseases in the Setting of Healthcare Priorities: Evidence of Social Preferences Based on a Systematic Review.

Background: In light of the limited availability of healthcare resources, providing universal access to healthcare is a challenging task. As a result, prioritizing healthcare services has emerged as a crucial issue. This study aims to explore the preferences of the public regarding healthcare prioritization for rare and common diseases. By examining public attitudes, this study seeks to inform government decisions concerning resource allocation and distribution within healthcare. Methods: "Social preference" and "rare disease" were searched as MeSH terms in the electronic databases of Ovid Medline, Web of Science, Embase, and Econlit for articles published since their establishment, and the information on the characteristics of the articles and the results of social preferences for rare diseases were analyzed and summarized. Results: The public held predominantly neutral views on the setting of healthcare priorities for rare and common diseases. The results of the included studies showed that with all else being equal, no social preference for rarity was found, but when the public considered the proportional advantage of rare diseases or when the respondents were young, a social preference for rarity existed. In addition, the public weighed attributes such as the health benefits of treatments, the effectiveness of treatment options, the safety of treatment, equity, unmet needs, and disease severity in the process of setting of treatment priorities for rare diseases. Furthermore, in consideration of equity, the public showed a willingness to pay for rare diseases in spite of the high medical costs. Conclusion: International studies on social preferences provide some evidence for the setting of healthcare priorities for rare diseases, and health policymakers should consider social preferences in an integrated manner in order to set healthcare priorities appropriately.

Preference to Family Doctor Contracted Service of Patients with Chronic Disease in Urban China: A Discrete Choice Experiment.

Objective: Shanghai is one of the pioneers proposing family doctor contract service (FDCS). However, there is no quantitative research focusing on the Shanghai experience from a demand-side perspective. This study investigated Shanghai chronic patients' relative preferences for FDCS using a discrete choice experiment method. Methods: A face-to-face discrete choice experiment (DCE) was performed to elicit the preference with 300 samples. Attributes and levels were extracted from the literature review and focus group consultation with patients. Seven attributes, follow-up frequency, medicine accessibility, family doctor competency, health management, referral convenience, appointment flexibility, and shared decision-making, were decided. Three levels were attached to each attribute. A mixed logit model was used to evaluate the multiple-choice data. Results: A total of 248 patients completed the survey. Patient valued FDCS medicine accessibility (ß=0.57, P < 0.05), and high family doctor competency (ß= 0.43, P < 0.05), regular health management activities (ß=0.36, P < 0.05), high follow-up frequency (ß=0.31, P < 0.05) the most. The good doctor-patient shared decision-making atmosphere (ß=0.12, P < 0.05), high referral convenience (ß=0.06, P < 0.05) and high appointment flexibility (ß=0.04, P < 0.05) are valued as less important. No significant preference heterogeneity was identified for patients with different sociodemographic characteristics. Respondents reported other FDCS needs, including online health consultation, specialist services in local institutes, higher reimbursement rates, free rehabilitation guidance for the disabled and personal health management. Conclusion: This research is the first discrete choice experiment FDCS preference research targeting on Chinese urban population. The results suggested that to increase the quality of FDCS, policy-makers should prioritize follow-up frequency, medicine accessibility, family doctor competency and health management. The service package should consider a higher reimbursement rate and rehabilitation guidance for the disabled if extra health-care resources available. Future FDCS policy should consider stated societal preference and be congruent with it.

Path Analysis Reveals the Direct Effect of PCB28 Exposure on Cognitive Dysfunction in Older Chinese Females.

Background: Research indicates that exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) can cause neurobehavioral impairments in neonates and adults, but the way specific PCBs' congeners impact cognition functions at a low exposure level in a real-life co-exposure system remains poorly understood. This study aimed to investigate the association of PCBs burden with cognition function among elderly adults. Methods: Based on the Weitang Geriatric Diseases study (2014−2015), the current study measured the plasma concentrations of six indicator-PCBs by GC-MS/MS and assessed the cognitive dysfunction (CoD) via an Abbreviated Mental Test in 266 participants (ages 61−90). Sequential logistic regression was used to analyze the effects of PCBs on cognition functions. Female participants aged less than or equal to 80 years were selected, and path analysis was used to determine the direct or indirect impacts of co-exposure PCBs on CoD by structural equation modeling. Results: After sequential adjustments to potential confounding factors and correction by the Bonferroni, no statistically significant correlation between PCBs exposure and CoD was found in participants (p > 0.05). However, in the co-exposure system, after controlling for co-exposures and confounders, exposure to PCB28 had a direct effect on CoD in females aged between 61 and 80, with a factor load of 0.670. Conclusions: After adjusting for the co-exposures and confounders, exposure to PCB28 can directly increase the risk of cognitive impairment in older Chinese females.

Exploration of animal models to study the life cycle of Fasciola hepatica.

The parasite Fasciola hepatica is an important zoonotic parasite. The development of an animal model of F. hepatica's life cycle is critical for studying the biological characteristics of the parasite in snails and mammals. Eggs of F. hepatica of bovine origin were cultured, and metacercariae were obtained after infection of Galba pervia snails. The life cycle system of F. hepatica was initiated in 2 different animals by orally infecting rabbits, SD rats and Kunming mice with the metacercariae. The animals' survival after infection, parasite migration in the animals and pathological damage to the liver were observed. We discovered that rabbits died due to acute suppurative hepatitis 60­69 days after infection, and eggs were found in the feces on day 63 of infection. The liver of SD rats showed punctate lesions on day 3 of infection, and further changes occurred as the infection progressed. However, liver repair was observed at week 9. SD rats survived for more than a year after infection and continued the F. hepatica life cycle. The liver lesions in Kunming mice after infection were similar but more severe than those in SD rats. Death was observed on the 31st post-infection day. We discovered that while rabbits, SD rats and Kunming mice can all be used as animal models of F. hepatica, SD rats are more suitable experimental animals in terms of tolerance and pathological response.

Association of China's two-child policy with changes in number of births and birth defects rate, 2008-2017.

BACKGROUND: In October 2015, China's one-child policy was universally replaced by a so-called two-child policy. This study investigated the association between the enactment of the new policy and changes in the number of births, and health-related birth outcomes. METHODS: We used difference-in-difference model to analyse the birth record data in Pudong New Area, Shanghai.The design is descriptive before-and-after comparative study. RESULTS: The data covered three policy periods: the one-child policy period (January 2008 to November 2014); the partial two-child policy period (December 2014 to June 2016); the universal two-child policy period (July 2016 to December 2017). There was an estimate of 7656 additional births during the 18 months of the implementation of the universal two-child policy. The trend of monthly percentage of births to mothers aged ≥35 increased by 0.24 percentage points (95% confidence interval 0.19 to 0.28, p < 0.001) during the same period. Being a baby boy, preterm birth, low birth weight, parents with lower educational attainment, and assisted delivery were associated with a higher risk of birth defects. CONCLUSIONS: The universal two-child policy was associated with an increase in the number of births and maternal age. Preterm birth, low birth weight, and assisted delivery were associated with a higher risk of birth defects, which suggested that these infants needed additional attention in the future.

Cost-effectiveness of stereotactic body radiotherapy in the treatment of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC): a systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to systematically review the studies on the cost-effectiveness of stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) in the treatment of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). METHODS: A systematic literature search was performed in databases from 2000 through April 2021. The search terms included 'economics,' 'cost,' 'cost effectiveness,' 'SBRT,' and all names for NSCLC. Two reviewers independently screened the titles, abstracts and full texts to determine the studies for the final sample. The quality of the included studies was assessed using the Quality of Health Economic Studies checklist. RESULTS: Eleven studies were identified and included in our final review. SBRT was reported to be a cost-effective (5 of 5) option compared to conventional radiotherapy, radiofrequency ablation, and best supportive care for medically inoperable, early-stage NSCLC. However, the identified studies revealed that no single treatment was found to be more cost-effective than others between SBRT and surgical interventions. The key drivers of this cost-effectiveness were the cost of the treatment, utility value, and the rate of surgical mortality. CONCLUSIONS: SBRT may be considered a more cost-effective strategy for medically inoperable, early-stage NSCLC. Considering the limited studies available, more related research should be conducted to further validate these results.

Survival Outcomes of Hemoperfusion and Hemodialysis versus Hemodialysis in Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The maintenance treatment of ESRD puts a great burden on individual patients, society, and the country of China as a whole. Hemoperfusion plus hemodialysis (HP + HD) in ESRD patients can yield modified outcomes such as prolonged life expectancy and improved dialysis quality and quality of life. This study aimed to systematically analyze the effect of HP + HD on the overall survival (OS) rates of ESRD patients and to provide support for clinical decision-making. METHODS: A computerized search was performed in the PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, CNKI, WanFang Data and SinoMed databases for relevant original research articles. Studies were included or excluded based on their compliance with predefined selection criteria. RESULTS: Twelve studies were included in the qualitative synthesis and quantitative synthesis (meta-analysis). The meta-analysis showed that the 1-year OS rate (odds ratio [OR]: 3.35, 95% CI: 1.89, 5.91, p < 0.05), 2-year OS rate (OR: 2.88, 95% CI: 1.84, 4.53, p < 0.05), and 5-year OS rate (χ2 = 4.3092, p < 0.05) of patients with ESRD treated with HP + HD were better than those treated with HD, but there was no significant difference in 3-year OS rate (OR: 1.97, 95% CI: 0.76, 5.06, p > 0.05). Subgroup analysis showed the same outcomes in different study designs (1-year OS rate: randomized controlled trials [RCTs]: OR: 4.38, 95% CI: 1.61, 11.88, p < 0.05; cohort studies: OR: 2.90, 95% CI: 1.44, 5.85, p < 0.05; 2-year OS rate: RCTs: OR: 2.99, 95% CI: 1.84, 4.84, p < 0.05) and different age-groups (1-year OS rate: 45-50 years: OR: 3.19, 95% CI: 1.55, 6.57, p < 0.05; 55-60 years: OR: 3.37, 95% CI: 1.07, 10.61, p < 0.05; 2-year OS rate: 50-55 years: OR: 2.86, 95% CI: 1.59, 5.16, p < 0.05: 60-65 years: OR: 4.41, 95% CI: 1.19, 16.30, p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis suggests that the OS rates of ESRD patients treated with HP + HD were better than those of patients treated with HD. A speculative hypothesis for why this is the case may be that HP + HD can achieve the complementary elimination of metabolites, effectively preventing and treating complications caused by long-term dialysis and prolonging life expectancy. Therefore, HP + HD should be widely used in ESRD patients.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of hemodialysis plus hemoperfusion versus hemodialysis alone in adult patients with end-stage renal disease in China.

BACKGROUND: This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of hemodialysis (HD) plus hemoperfusion (HP) with HD alone in adult patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in China. METHODS: A Markov model was constructed to assess the cost-effectiveness of interventions over a lifetime horizon. Model parameters were informed by the HD/HP trial, the first randomized, open-label multicenter trial comparing survival outcomes and incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) for HD + HP versus HD alone, and supplemented by published literature and expert opinion. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) with respect to quality adjusted life-years (QALY). The robustness of the results was examined in extensive sensitivity analyses. Analyses were conducted from a healthcare perspective. Costs were reported in both Chinese Renminbi (RMB) and US Dollars (USD) in 2019 values. RESULTS: The base case ICER of HD + HP is RMB 174,486 (USD 25,251) per QALY, which is lower than the RMB 212,676 (USD 30,778) willingness-to-pay threshold of three times Gross Domestic Product. This conclusion is sensitive to the mortality for patients with no severe CVD events, the incidence of CVD events, and the cost of HP and HD. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of RMB 212,676 (USD 30,778) per QALY gained, the probability that HD + HP is cost-effective is 58%. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate a potential for HD + HP to be cost-effective for patients with ESRD. Further evidence on the longer-term impact of HD + HP on CVD event rates and mortality unrelated to CVD is needed to robustly demonstrate the cost-effectiveness of HD + HP. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The HD/HP trial was registered with the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR-IOR-16009332).

Disease Burden Attributable to the First Wave of COVID-19 in China and the Effect of Timing on the Cost-Effectiveness of Movement Restriction Policies.

OBJECTIVES: Movement restriction policies (MRPs) are effective in preventing/delaying COVID-19 transmission but are associated with high societal cost. This study aims to estimate the health burden of the first wave of COVID-19 in China and the cost-effectiveness of early versus late implementation of MRPs to inform preparation for future waves. METHODS: The SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered) modeling framework was adapted to simulate the health and cost outcomes of initiating MRPs at different times: rapid implementation (January 23, the real-world scenario), delayed by 1 week, delayed by 2 weeks, and delayed by 4 weeks. The end point was set as the day when newly confirmed cases reached zero. Two costing perspectives were adopted: healthcare and societal. Input data were obtained from official statistics and published literature. The primary outcomes were disability-adjusted life-years, cost, and net monetary benefit. Costs were reported in both Chinese renminbi (RMB) and US dollars (USD) at 2019 values. RESULTS: The first wave of COVID-19 in China resulted in 38 348 disability adjusted life-years lost (95% CI 19 417-64 130) and 2639 billion RMB losses (95% CI 1347-4688). The rapid implementation strategy dominated all other delayed strategies. This conclusion was robust to all scenarios tested. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of 70 892 RMB (the national annual GDP per capita) per disability-adjusted life-year saved, the probability for the rapid implementation to be the optimal strategy was 96%. CONCLUSIONS: Early implementation of MRPs in response to COVID-19 reduced both the health burden and societal cost and thus should be used for future waves of COVID-19.

Economic burden of COVID-19, China, January-March, 2020: a cost-of-illness study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the economic cost of coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) in 31 provincial-level administrative regions and in total, in China. METHODS: We used data from government reports, clinical guidelines and other publications to estimate the main cost components of COVID-19 during 1 January-31 March 2020. These components were: identification and diagnosis of close contacts; suspected cases and confirmed cases of COVID-19; treatment of COVID-19 cases; compulsory quarantine of close contacts and suspected cases; and productivity losses for all affected residents. Primary outcomes were total health-care and societal costs. FINDINGS: The total estimated health-care and societal costs associated with COVID-19 were 4.26 billion Chinese yuan (¥; 0.62 billion United States dollars, US$) and ¥ 2646.70 billion (US$ 383.02 billion), respectively. Inpatient care accounted for 44.2% (¥ 0.95 billion/¥ 2.15 billion) of routine health-care costs followed by medicines, accounting for 32.5% (¥ 0.70 billion/¥ 2.15 billion). Productivity losses accounted for 99.8% (¥ 2641.61 billion/¥ 2646.70 billion) of societal costs, which were mostly attributable to the effect of movement-restriction policies on people who did not have COVID-19. Societal costs were most sensitive to salary costs and number of working days lost due to movement-restriction policies. Hubei province had the highest health-care cost while Guangdong province had the highest societal cost. CONCLUSION: Our results highlight the high economic burden of the COVID-19 outbreak in China. The control measures to prevent the spread of disease resulted in substantial costs from productivity losses amounting to 2.7% (US$ 382.29 billion/US$ 14.14 trillion) of China's annual gross domestic product.

Is direct-drinking water safe for children? An analysis of direct-drinking water quality and its risk factors in Shanghai elementary and middle schools.

BACKGROUND: Drinking water quality for children should be higher than adults due to both behavioral and physiological factors. Thus, to provide enough, safe, and easily accessible drinking water for children at schools, the Shanghai Municipal Government initiated a direct-drinking water project in 2013. However, there has been no study so far to assess the quality of direct-drinking water or to investigate its risk factors in Shanghai elementary and middle schools. METHODS: In the present study, we selected direct-drinking water equipment from 183 elementary and middle schools (17% of total) in Shanghai to detect the colony-forming units (CFU), residual chlorine, chemical oxygen demand (COD), and turbidity of water samples, and analyzed the risk factors of its quality using both simple and multiple linear regression analysis. RESULTS: Results showed that the CFU, residual chlorine, COD, and turbidity of direct-drinking water in Shanghai elementary and middle schools ranged from 300 cfu/mL,

Informing a Cost-Effectiveness Threshold for Health Technology Assessment in China: A Marginal Productivity Approach.

BACKGROUND: Health technology assessment has been increasingly used in China, having been legally mandated in 2019, to inform reimbursement decisions and price negotiations between the National Healthcare Security Administration and pharmaceutical companies around the price of new pharmaceuticals. The criteria currently used to judge cost effectiveness and inform pricing negotiations, 3 × GDP per capita, is based on the rule of thumb previously recommended by the World Health Organization rather than an estimate based on an empirical assessment of health opportunity costs. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to inform a cost-effectiveness threshold for health technology assessment in China that accounts for health opportunity cost. METHODS: The elasticity of health outcomes with respect to health expenditure was estimated using variations across 30 provincial-level administrative divisions in 2017 controlling for a range of other factors and using an instrumental variable approach to account for endogeneity to assess robustness of results. The estimated elasticity was then used to calculate the cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted by variations in Chinese health expenditure at the margin. RESULTS: The range estimated from this study, 27,923-52,247 (2017 RMB) (central estimate 37,446) per DALY averted or 47-88% of GDP per capita (central estimate 63%), shows that a cost per DALY averted cost-effectiveness threshold that reflects health opportunity costs is below 1 × GDP per capita. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the current cost-effectiveness threshold used in China is too high; continuing to use it risks decisions that reduce overall population health.