Temporal trend and driving effect of demographic transitions on embedded carbon emissions of Chinese households.

A population is regarded as the main non-economic driver of carbon emissions, causing the climatic crisis, especially in China experiencing a dramatic demographic transition. In contrast to aging, low fertility, the most remarkable feature of the Chinese population transition, has always been ignored when evaluating carbon emissions, due to the lack of long-run data. To narrow this gap, an integrated framework combining the continuous input-output tables from 1997 to 2018 with the Mann-Kendall test and vector auto-regression was presented to clarify the fluctuating trend of household embedded carbon emissions and the driving pattern of low fertility, aging, and urbanization. Our main findings showed that changes in household embedded carbon emissions have increased sharply in the last two decades. The growth of Chinese household embedded carbon emissions began to accelerate in 2001, which lagged 1 year behind the demographic indicators. Low fertility has a positive impact on households' embedded carbon emissions. More importantly, the impact of low fertility is more significant and far-reaching than that of aging. These suggest that aggressive policies for stimulating fertility and low-carbon lifestyles should be considered by policy makers.

High-Resolution Estimates of N2O Emissions from Inland Waters and Wetlands in China.

Inland waters (rivers, lakes, and reservoirs) and wetlands (marshes and coastal wetlands) represent large and continuous sources of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, in view of adequate biomass and anaerobic conditions. Considerable uncertainties remain in quantifying spatially explicit N2O emissions from aquatic systems, attributable to the limitations of models and a lack of comprehensive data sets. Herein, we conducted a synthesis of 1659 observations of N2O emission rates to determine the major environmental drivers across five aquatic systems. A framework for spatially explicit estimates of N2O emissions in China was established, employing a data-driven approach that upscaled from site-specific N2O fluxes to robust multiple-regression models. Results revealed the effectiveness of models incorporating soil organic carbon and water content for marshes and coastal wetlands, as well as water nitrate concentration and dissolved organic carbon for lakes, rivers, and reservoirs for predicting emissions. Total national N2O emissions from inland waters and wetlands were 1.02 × 105 t N2O yr-1, with contributions from marshes (36.33%), rivers (27.77%), lakes (25.27%), reservoirs (6.47%), and coastal wetlands (4.16%). Spatially, larger emissions occurred in the Songliao River Basin and Continental River Basin, primarily due to their substantial terrestrial biomass. This study offers a vital national inventory of N2O emissions from inland waters and wetlands in China, providing paradigms for the inventorying work in other countries and insights to formulate effective mitigation strategies for climate change.

Tracking Key Industrial Sectors for CO2 Mitigation through the Driving Effects: An Attribution Analysis.

The heavy pressure to improve CO2 emission control in industry requires the identification of key sub-sectors and the clarification of how they mitigate CO2 emissions through various actions. Focusing on 30 Chinese provincial regions, this study quantifies the contribution of each industrial sector to regional CO2 mitigation by combining the logarithmic mean Divisia index with attribution analysis and extract the key sectors of CO2 mitigation for each region. Results indicate that during 2010-2019, significant emission reduction was achieved through energy intensity (74%) in Beijing, while emission reductions were attained through industrial structure changes for Anhui (50%), Henan (45%), and Chongqing (45%). The contribution to emission reduction through energy structures is not significant. The production and supply of power and heat (PSPH) is a central factor in CO2 mitigation through all three inhibitive factors. Petroleum processing and coking (PPC) generally contributes to emission reduction through energy structures, while the smelting and pressing of ferrous metals (SPMF) through changes in industrial structures and energy intensity. PSPH and SPMF, in most regions, have not achieved the emission peak. Except in the case of coal mining and dressing (CMD), CO2 emissions in other key sectors have almost been decoupled from industrial development. CMD effectively promotes CO2 mitigation in Anhui, Henan, and Hunan, with larger contribution of PPC in Tianjin, Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, and that of smelting and pressing of nonferrous metals in Yunnan and Guangxi. The findings help to better identify key sectors across regions that can mitigate CO2 emissions, while analyzing the critical emission characteristics of these sectors, which can provide references to formulating region- and sector-specific CO2 mitigation measures for regions at different levels of development.

Dynamic Driving Mechanism of Dual Structural Effects on the Correlation between Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions: Evidence from a Typical Transformation Region.

How will the dual structural effects, represented by industrial structure and energy structure, affect the future correlation between economic growth and CO2 emissions? Taking Jilin Province as an example, this study explores the dynamic driving mechanism of dual structural effects on the correlation between economic growth and CO2 emissions by innovatively building an integrated simulation model from 1995 to 2015 and setting different scenarios from 2016 to 2050. Correspondingly, the concept of marginal utility and the method of variance decomposition analysis are introduced to reveal the mechanism. The results show that the energy structure is different while the industrial structure tends to be similar when CO2 emissions reach the peak under different scenarios. The slower the dual structure adjustment, the more significant the upward trend appears before the peak. The contribution of the dual structural effects to CO2 emissions caused by unit GDP growth is basically the same in peak year. With the transformation of socio-economy, the positive driving effect of the industrial structure will gradually weaken, while the negative driving effect of the energy structure will gradually increase. The methods and results presented can provide insights into sensible trade-offs of CO2 emissions and economic growth in different countries/regions during structural transitions.

Uncertain Water Environment Carrying Capacity Simulation Based on the Monte Carlo Method-System Dynamics Model: A Case Study of Fushun City.

Water environment carrying capacity (WECC) is an effective indicator that can help resolve the contradiction between social and economic development and water environment pollution. Considering the complexity of the water environment and socioeconomic systems in Northeast China, this study establishes an evaluation index system and a system dynamics (SD) model of WECC in Fushun City, Liaoning, China, through the combination of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and SD. In consideration of the uncertainty of the future development of society, the Monte Carlo and scenario analysis methods are used to simulate the WECC of Fushun City. Results show that if the current social development mode is maintained, then the WECC in Fushun will have a slow improvement in the future, and a "general" carrying state with a WECC index of 0.566 in 2025 will be developed. Moreover, focusing on economic development (Scheme 1 with a WECC index of [0.22, 0.45] in 2025) or environmental protection (Scheme 2 with a WECC index of [0.48, 0.68] in 2025) cannot effectively improve the local water environment. Only by combining the two coordinated development modes (Scheme 3) can WECC be significantly improved and achieve "general" or "good" carrying state with a WECC index of [0.59, 0.79]. An important development of this study is that the probability of each scheme's realization can be calculated after different schemes are formulated. In turn, the feasibility of the scheme will be evaluated after knowing the probability, so as to determine the path suitable for local development. This is of great significance for future urban planning.

An integrated model for simulating and diagnosing the water quality based on the system dynamics and Bayesian network.

An integrated model for simulating and diagnosing water quality based on the system dynamics and Bayesian network (BN) is presented in the paper. The research aims to connect water monitoring downstream with outlet management upstream in order to present an efficiency outlet management strategy. The integrated model was built from two components: the system dynamics were used to simulate the water quality and the BN was applied to diagnose the reason for water quality deterioration according to the water quality simulation. The integrated model was applied in a case study of the Songhua River from the Baiqi section to the Songlin section to prove its reasonability and accuracy. The results showed that the simulation fit to the variation trend of monitoring data, and the average relative error was less than 10%. The water quality deterioration in the Songlin section was mainly found to be caused by the water quality in the upper reach and Hadashan Reservoir drain by using the diagnosis function of the integrated model based on BN. The relevant result revealed that the integrated model could provide reasonable and quantitative support for the basin manager to make a reasonable outlet control strategy to avoid more serious water quality deterioration.

The novel histamine H2 receptor antagonist FRG-8813 prevents delay of wound repair induced by hydrogen peroxide in a rabbit gastric epithelial cell system.

The effects of a novel histamine H2 receptor antagonist (FRG-8813) on the restoration process of gastric epithelial wounds were assessed using an in vitro wound healing model. FRG-8813 (1, 10 mol/L) was added to a complete confluent monolayer cell sheet after artificial wounding. The restoration process was analysed by a time-lapse video system and cell migration, proliferation and apoptosis were assessed. Hydrogen peroxide (1, 3 mmol/L) inhibited restoration after wounding by suppressing cell migration and proliferation and induced epithelial cell apoptosis around the wound. The addition of FRG-8813 abolished the hydrogen peroxide-induced retardation and prevented apoptosis, although FRG-8813 itself did not enhance wound healing. FRG-8813 may act as a radical scavenger as well as having an anti-secretory action and may have favourable effects on peptic ulcer healing.

Hepatic stellate cell contraction is inhibited by lipo-prostaglandin E1 in vitro.

Prostaglandin E1 (PGE1 ) has been reported to have, experimentally and clinically, a protective effect against liver damage. This effect may result from the relaxation of hepatic stellate cells, whose contraction induces vasoconstriction of hepatic sinusoids. However, prostaglandins are unstable and a new drug delivery system is necessary to administer a sufficient amount of prostaglandin to achieve a protective effect in the liver. The aim of the study is to investigate the effects of lipo-prostaglandin E1 (lipo-PGE1 ) which has a novel drug delivery system on the stellate cell contraction induced by endothelin-1 in vitro. Lipo-PGE1 inhibited endothelin-1-induced stellate cell contraction in concentrations of 10, 30 and 50 ng/mL. Therefore, lipo-PGE1 may show a cytoprotective effect in the liver through the relaxation of stellate cells and an increase in the hepatic sinusoidal blood flow.