Vitamin D Supplementation and Prevention of Type 2 Diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Observational studies support an association between a low blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D level and the risk of type 2 diabetes. However, whether vitamin D supplementation lowers the risk of diabetes is unknown. METHODS: We randomly assigned adults who met at least two of three glycemic criteria for prediabetes (fasting plasma glucose level, 100 to 125 mg per deciliter; plasma glucose level 2 hours after a 75-g oral glucose load, 140 to 199 mg per deciliter; and glycated hemoglobin level, 5.7 to 6.4%) and no diagnostic criteria for diabetes to receive 4000 IU per day of vitamin D3 or placebo, regardless of the baseline serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D level. The primary outcome in this time-to-event analysis was new-onset diabetes, and the trial design was event-driven, with a target number of diabetes events of 508. RESULTS: A total of 2423 participants underwent randomization (1211 to the vitamin D group and 1212 to the placebo group). By month 24, the mean serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D level in the vitamin D group was 54.3 ng per milliliter (from 27.7 ng per milliliter at baseline), as compared with 28.8 ng per milliliter in the placebo group (from 28.2 ng per milliliter at baseline). After a median follow-up of 2.5 years, the primary outcome of diabetes occurred in 293 participants in the vitamin D group and 323 in the placebo group (9.39 and 10.66 events per 100 person-years, respectively). The hazard ratio for vitamin D as compared with placebo was 0.88 (95% confidence interval, 0.75 to 1.04; P = 0.12). The incidence of adverse events did not differ significantly between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Among persons at high risk for type 2 diabetes not selected for vitamin D insufficiency, vitamin D3 supplementation at a dose of 4000 IU per day did not result in a significantly lower risk of diabetes than placebo. (Funded by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases and others; D2d ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01942694.).

Effect of Continuous Positive Airway Pressure Treatment on Health-Related Quality of Life and Sleepiness in High Cardiovascular Risk Individuals With Sleep Apnea: Best Apnea Interventions for Research (BestAIR) Trial.

Study Objectives: The long-term effect of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) on health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in patients with high cardiovascular disease risk and obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) without severe sleepiness is uncertain. We aimed to determine the effect of CPAP treatment on HRQOL in individuals with moderate or severe OSA and cardiovascular disease (CVD) or multiple CVD risk factors without severe sleepiness. Methods: In this randomized, controlled, parallel group study, 169 participants were assigned to treatment with CPAP or the control group (conservative medical therapy [CMT] or CMT with sham CPAP). Analyses were based on an intention-to-treat approach. Linear mixed effect models were fitted to compare the changes in the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form-36 (SF-36) and in subjective sleepiness (Epworth Sleepiness Scale [ESS]) between groups from baseline to the average of 6- and 12-month measurements. Results: CPAP improved several domains of HRQOL including bodily pain (treatment effect 9.7 [95% confidence interval, CI 3.9 to 15.4]; p = .001), vitality (5.7 [95% CI 1.5 to 9.9]; p = .008), general health (8.2 [95% CI 3.7 to 12.7]; p < .001), physical functioning (5.5 [95% CI 1.1 to 10.0]; p = .016), and the physical health summary score (3.3 [95% CI 1.4 to 5.3]; p = .001). CPAP also resulted in less daytime sleepiness (mean change in ESS -1.0 point [95% CI -2.0 to -0.0]; p = .040). Conclusions: In patients with moderate-severe OSA at high risk of cardiovascular events and without severe sleepiness, CPAP improved daytime sleepiness and multiple domains of HRQOL over 6 to 12 months of follow-up, with the largest improvement observed for bodily pain.

An evaluation of increasing sample size based on conditional power.

We evaluate properties of sample size re-estimation (SSR) designs similar to the promising zone design considered by Mehta and Pocock (2011). We evaluate these designs under the assumption of a true effect size of 1.1 down to 0.4 of the protocol-specified effect size by six measures: 1. The probability of a sample size increase, 2. The mean proportional increase in sample size given an increase; 3 and 4. The mean true conditional power with and without a sample size increase; 5 and 6. The expected increase in sample size and power due to the SSR procedure. These measures show the probability of a sample size increase and the cost/benefit for given true effect sizes, particularly when the SSR may either be pursuing a small effect size of little clinical importance or be unnecessary when the true effect size is close to the protocol-specified effect size. The results show the clear superiority of conducting the SSR late in the study and the inefficiency of a mid-study SSR. The results indicate that waiting until late in the study for the SSR yields a smaller, better targeted set of studies with a greater increase in overall power than a mid-study SSR.

Geographical Inequalities and Social and Environmental Risk Factors for Under-Five Mortality in Ghana in 2000 and 2010: Bayesian Spatial Analysis of Census Data.

BACKGROUND: Under-five mortality is declining in Ghana and many other countries. Very few studies have measured under-five mortality-and its social and environmental risk factors-at fine spatial resolutions, which is relevant for policy purposes. Our aim was to estimate under-five mortality and its social and environmental risk factors at the district level in Ghana. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used 10% random samples of Ghana's 2000 and 2010 National Population and Housing Censuses. We applied indirect demographic methods and a Bayesian spatial model to the information on total number of children ever born and children surviving to estimate under-five mortality (probability of dying by 5 y of age, 5q0) for each of Ghana's 110 districts. We also used the census data to estimate the distributions of households or persons in each district in terms of fuel used for cooking, sanitation facility, drinking water source, and parental education. Median district 5q0 declined from 99 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2000 to 70 in 2010. The decline ranged from <5% in some northern districts, where 5q0 had been higher in 2000, to >40% in southern districts, where it had been lower in 2000, exacerbating existing inequalities. Primary education increased in men and women, and more households had access to improved water and sanitation and cleaner cooking fuels. Higher use of liquefied petroleum gas for cooking was associated with lower 5q0 in multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Under-five mortality has declined in all of Ghana's districts, but the cross-district inequality in mortality has increased. There is a need for additional data, including on healthcare, and additional environmental and socioeconomic measurements, to understand the reasons for the variations in mortality levels and trends.

Adaptive Clinical Trial Design: An Overview and Potential Applications in Dermatology.

The challenges of drug development, including increasing costs, late-stage drug failures, and the decline in the number of drugs being approved by the US Food and Drug Administration over time, have generated interest in adaptive study designs that have the potential to address these problems. Adaptive trial designs use interim data analysis to amend trials, and have been recognized for more than a decade as a way to increase trial efficiency, partly by the increased probability of demonstrating a drug effect if one exists. In this article, we define adaptive trials; give examples of the most common types; highlight the pros, cons, and ethical considerations of these designs; and illustrate how these tools can be applied to drug development in dermatology.

Motivational Enhancement for Increasing Adherence to CPAP: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Motivational enhancement (ME) shows promise as a means of increasing adherence to CPAP for OSA. METHODS: We performed an open-label, parallel-arm, randomized controlled trial of CPAP only or CPAP + ME, recruiting individuals 45 to 75 years with moderate or severe OSA without marked sleepiness and with either established cardiovascular disease (CVD) or at risk for CVD. All participants received standardized CPAP support from a sleep technologist; those randomly assigned to CPAP + ME also received standardized ME delivered by a psychologist during two appointments and six phone calls over 32 weeks. Mixed-effect models with subject-specific intercepts and slopes were fitted to compare objective CPAP adherence between arms, adjusting for follow-up duration, randomization factors, and device manufacturer. All analyses were intention-to-treat. RESULTS: Overall, 83 participants (n = 42 CPAP only; n = 41 CPAP + ME) contributed 14,273 nights of data for 6 months. Participants were predominantly male (67%) and had a mean ± SD age of 63.9 ± 7.4 years, a BMI of 31.1 ± 5.2 kg/m(2), and an apnea-hypopnea index of 26.2 ± 12.9 events/h. In our fully adjusted model, average nightly adherence for 6 months was 99.0 min/night higher with CPAP + ME compared with CPAP only (P = .003; primary analysis). A subset of 52 participants remained in the study for 12 months; modeling these data yielded a consistent difference in adherence between arms of 97 min/night (P = .006) favoring CPAP + ME. CONCLUSIONS: ME delivered during brief appointments and phone calls resulted in a clinically significant increase in CPAP adherence. This strategy may represent a feasible approach for optimizing management of OSA. TRIAL REGISTRY: ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT01261390; URL: www.clinicaltrials.gov.

Large lipid-rich coronary plaques detected by near-infrared spectroscopy at non-stented sites in the target artery identify patients likely to experience future major adverse cardiovascular events.

AIMS: A recent study demonstrated that intracoronary near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) findings in non-target vessels are associated with major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE). It is unknown whether NIRS findings at non-stented sites in target vessels are similarly associated with future MACCE. This study evaluated the association between large lipid-rich plaques (LRP) detected by NIRS at non-stented sites in a target artery and subsequent MACCE. METHODS AND RESULTS: This study evaluated 121 consecutive registry patients undergoing NIRS imaging in a target artery. After excluding stented segments, target arteries were evaluated for a large LRP, defined as a maximum lipid core burden index in 4 mm (maxLCBI4 mm) ≥400. Excluding events in stented segments, Cox regression analysis was performed to evaluate for an association between a maxLCBI4 mm ≥400 and future MACCE, defined as all-cause mortality, non-fatal acute coronary syndrome, and cerebrovascular events. NIRS detected a maxLCBI4 mm ≥400 in a non-stented segment of the target artery in 17.4% of patients. The only baseline clinical variable marginally associated with MACCE was ejection fraction (HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.93-1.00, P = 0.054). A maxLCBI4 mm ≥400 in a non-stented segment at baseline was significantly associated with MACCE during follow-up (HR 10.2, 95% CI 3.4-30.6, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Detection of large LRP by NIRS at non-stented sites in a target artery was associated with an increased risk of future MACCE. These findings support ongoing prospective studies to further evaluate the ability of NIRS to identify vulnerable patients.

Clinical research quo vadis? Trends in reporting of clinical trials and observational study designs over two decades.

BACKGROUND: Multiple classifications have been developed that classify the medical literature into different levels of evidence to facilitate the evaluation of study results and practice of evidence-based medicine. The suggested hierarchies of evidence are generally based on the type of study design; randomized, controlled clinical trials constitute the top level of evidence while case reports rank the lowest among epidemiologic study designs. However, little is known about the frequency with which different study designs appear in the medical literature overall. The purpose of this study was to describe trends in the frequency of reports of randomized control trials (RCTs) as compared to other study designs in the medical literature over two decades. METHODS: Data about the prevalence of various types of study designs in the medical literature over the last two decades (years 1990 - 2009) were abstracted from PubMed, validated and subjected to cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis. RESULTS: In the last 20 years, the annual rate of publication of journal articles has more than doubled. During this period, the percentage of observational studies increased from 29.9% to 40.5%, the percentage of reports of RCTs increased minimally, and there was a striking decline in the percentage of case reports (from 49.8% to 33.6%) in the medical literature overall. In contrast, in three selected, highly cited medical journals, the percentage of reports of RCTs increased by almost 10%. Surprisingly, the percentage of articles classified as case reports also increased (from 36.3% to 43.8%) in these three journals, while the percentage of reports of cohort and case-control studies decreased. CONCLUSION: Though the relative frequency of reports from RCTs has not changed substantially in the last 20 years, cohort studies and case-control studies have largely supplanted simple case reports. In contrast, in high impact journals, the representation of RCTs and case reports has increased, with corresponding declines in reports based on other study designs. Further research will be needed to determine whether those trends in publication have resulted in more robust evidence and faster advancement of medical knowledge.

Challenges in recruitment to a randomized controlled study of cardiovascular disease reduction in sleep apnea: an analysis of alternative strategies.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: A challenge in conducting randomized controlled trials of sleep apnea is the timely recruitment of participants to active and control arms. This study assesses the costs and efficiencies of alternative recruitment methods. DESIGN: Analysis of recruitment data from the Best Apnea Intervention in Research planning study. SETTING: Sleep clinics and cardiology practices. PARTICIPANTS: One hundred forty-eight individuals with an apnea-hypopnea index > 15 and cardiovascular (CV) risk factors randomized from a pool of more than 30,000 potentially eligible patients. INTERVENTIONS: Comparisons: (1) modes of recruitment: face-to-face (F2F) recruitment versus mail-based recruitment (MBR); (2) recruitment source (sleep versus cardiology clinics). MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Recruitment yield was defined as the ratio of the number of subjects randomized to the number of screened records. Recruitment costs were estimated based on staff time. Of the 148 randomized subjects, 25 were recruited from sleep clinics using F2F recruitment and 123 were recruited from cardiology using a F2F (n = 35) or MBR (n = 88) strategy. F2F recruitment yields were 0.17% and 0.30% for sleep versus cardiology sources, respectively (P = 0.04). A comparison of F2F to MBR showed recruitment yields of 1.11% and 0.90% and costs per randomized subject of $2,139 and $647, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Large resources may be needed to meet the recruitment goals of sleep apnea intervention trials. Recruitment source and mode influence efficiencies. For a trial comparing active versus sham continuous positive airway pressure in patients with CV risk factors, recruiting from cardiology was more efficient than from sleep clinics. MBR was three times less costly than F2F recruitment.

Rationale and design of the Vitamin D and Type 2 Diabetes (D2d) study: a diabetes prevention trial.

OBJECTIVE: Observational studies suggest that vitamin D may lower the risk of type 2 diabetes. However, data from long-term trials are lacking. The Vitamin D and Type 2 Diabetes (D2d) study is a randomized clinical trial designed to examine whether a causal relationship exists between vitamin D supplementation and the development of diabetes in people at high risk for type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: D2d was designed with support from a U34 planning grant from the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (NIDDK). The final protocol was approved by the D2d Research Group, the data and safety monitoring board, and NIDDK. Key eligibility criteria are age ≥30 years, BMI of 24 (22.5 for Asian Americans) to 42 kg/m(2), increased risk for diabetes (defined as meeting two of three glycemic criteria for prediabetes established by the American Diabetes Association [fasting glucose 100-125 mg/dL (5.5-6.9 mmol/L), 2-h postload glucose after 75-g glucose load 140-199 mg/dL (7.7-11.0 mmol/L), hemoglobin A1c 5.7-6.4% (39-46 mmol/mol)]), and no hyperparathyroidism, nephrolithiasis, or hypercalcemia. D2d participants are randomized to once-daily vitamin D3 (cholecalciferol 4,000 IU) or placebo and followed for an average of 3 years. The primary end point is time to incident diabetes as assessed by laboratory criteria during the study or by adjudication if diagnosed outside of D2d. Recruitment was initiated at the end of 2013. CONCLUSIONS: D2d will test whether vitamin D supplementation is safe and effective at lowering the risk of progression to diabetes in people at high risk for type 2 diabetes.

Cardiovascular safety of varenicline: patient-level meta-analysis of randomized, blinded, placebo-controlled trials.

Smoking is a major modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular (CV) disease. Varenicline is a pharmacological aid for smoking cessation. To explore the CV safety of varenicline, we investigated the incidence of CV events in varenicline-treated subjects across all phase 2-4 randomized placebo-controlled clinical trials of ≥12-week treatment duration conducted in smokers aged ≥18 years and sponsored by the drug manufacturer. This manuscript reports a subject-level meta-analysis of time to major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; defined as CV-related death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke) and time to MACE+ (defined as MACE plus worsening or any procedure for peripheral vascular disease, hospitalization for angina, or performance of coronary revascularization). All events were adjudicated by an independent adjudication committee, blind to treatment assignment. Events were assessed during treatment and up to 30 days after the last treatment dose. The primary analytical method was a stratified logrank time-to-event analysis; secondary analyses were meta-analyses of incidence rate ratios and rate differences. Overall, 7002 subjects were included (varenicline: 4190; placebo: 2812) from 15 studies. MACE were reported by 13 varenicline subjects (0.31%) and 6 placebo subjects (0.21%) [hazard ratio, 1.95; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.79-4.82; P = 0.15; risk difference, 0.006 events per subject-year; 95% CI: -0.003, 0.015, P = 0.19]. MACE+ were reported by 26 varenicline subjects (0.62%) and 12 placebo subjects (0.43%) (hazard ratio, 1.74; 95% CI: 0.91-3.34, P = 0.10; risk difference, 0.010; 95% CI: -0.002, 0.022, P = 0.11). This subject-level meta-analysis of MACE or MACE+ up to 30 days posttreatment in placebo-controlled clinical trials of varenicline found a trend toward increased incidence of these events in varenicline-treated patients that did not reach statistical significance. The overall number of events was low and the absolute risk of CV events with varenicline was small.

Strategies for developing biostatistics resources in an academic health center.

Biostatistics--the application of statistics to understanding health and biology-provides powerful tools for developing research questions, designing studies, refining measurements, analyzing data, and interpreting findings. Biostatistics plays an important role in health-related research, yet biostatistics resources are often fragmented, ad hoc, or oversubscribed within academic health centers (AHCs). Given the increasing complexity and quantity of health-related data, the emphasis on accelerating clinical and translational science, and the importance of conducting reproducible research, the need for the thoughtful development of biostatistics resources within AHCs is growing.In this article, the authors identify strategies for developing biostatistics resources in three areas: (1) recruiting and retaining biostatisticians, (2) efficiently using biostatistics resources, and (3) improving biostatistical contributions to science. AHCs should consider these three domains in building strong biostatistics resources, which they can leverage to support a broad spectrum of research. For each of the three domains, the authors describe the advantages and disadvantages of AHCs creating centralized biostatistics units rather than dispersing such resources across clinical departments or other research units. They also address the challenges that biostatisticians face in contributing to research without sacrificing their individual professional growth or the trajectory of their research teams. The authors ultimately recommend that AHCs create centralized biostatistics units because this approach offers distinct advantages both to investigators who collaborate with biostatisticians as well as to the biostatisticians themselves, and it is better suited to accomplish the research and education missions of AHCs.

Detecting moderator effects using subgroup analyses.

In the analysis of prevention and intervention studies, it is often important to investigate whether treatment effects vary among subgroups of patients defined by individual characteristics. These "subgroup analyses" can provide information about how best to use a new prevention or intervention program. However, subgroup analyses can be misleading if they test data-driven hypotheses, employ inappropriate statistical methods, or fail to account for multiple testing. These problems have led to a general suspicion of findings from subgroup analyses. This article discusses sound methods for conducting subgroup analyses to detect moderators. Multiple authors have argued that, to assess whether a treatment effect varies across subgroups defined by patient characteristics, analyses should be based on tests for interaction rather than treatment comparisons within the subgroups. We discuss the concept of heterogeneity and its dependence on the metric used to describe treatment effects. We discuss issues of multiple comparisons related to subgroup analyses and the importance of considering multiplicity in the interpretation of results. We also discuss the types of questions that would lead to subgroup analyses and how different scientific goals may affect the study at the design stage. Finally, we discuss subgroup analyses based on post-baseline factors and the complexity associated with this type of subgroup analysis.

Decreased postnatal docosahexaenoic and arachidonic acid blood levels in premature infants are associated with neonatal morbidities.

OBJECTIVE: To measure the changes in whole blood fatty acid levels in premature infants and evaluate associations between these changes and neonatal morbidities. STUDY DESIGN: This was a retrospective cohort study of 88 infants born at <30 weeks' gestation. Serial fatty acid profiles during the first postnatal month and infant outcomes, including chronic lung disease (CLD), retinopathy of prematurity, and late-onset sepsis, were analyzed. Regression modeling was applied to determine the association between fatty acid levels and neonatal morbidities. RESULTS: Docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) and arachidonic acid levels declined rapidly in the first postnatal week, with a concomitant increase in linoleic acid levels. Decreased DHA level was associated with an increased risk of CLD (OR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.3-5.0). Decreased arachidonic acid level was associated with an increased risk of late-onset sepsis (hazard ratio, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-1.7). The balance of fatty acids was also a predictor of CLD and late-onset sepsis. An increased linoleic acid:DHA ratio was associated with an increased risk of CLD (OR, 8.6; 95% CI, 1.4-53.1) and late-onset sepsis (hazard ratio, 4.6; 95% CI, 1.5-14.1). CONCLUSION: Altered postnatal fatty acid levels in premature infants are associated with an increased risk of CLD and late-onset sepsis.

A prospective study of floor surface, shoes, floor cleaning and slipping in US limited-service restaurant workers.

OBJECTIVES: Slips and falls are a leading cause of injury at work. Few studies, however, have systematically examined risk factors of slipping outside the laboratory environment. This study examined the association between floor surface characteristics, slip-resistant shoes, floor cleaning frequency and the risk of slipping in limited-service restaurant workers. METHODS: 475 workers from 36 limited-service restaurants from three major chains in six states in the USA were recruited to participate in a prospective cohort study of workplace slipping. Kitchen floor surface roughness and coefficient of friction (COF) were measured in eight working areas and then averaged within each restaurant. The use of slip-resistant shoes was determined by examining the participant's shoes and noting the presence of a 'slip-resistant' marking on the sole. Restaurant managers reported the frequency of daily kitchen floor cleaning. Participants reported their slip experience and work hours weekly for up to 12 weeks. The survey materials were made available in three languages: English, Spanish and Portuguese. The associations between rate of slipping and risk factors were assessed using a multivariable negative binomial generalised estimating equation model. RESULTS: The mean of individual slipping rate varied among the restaurants from 0.02 to 2.49 slips per 40 work hours. After adjusting for age, gender, BMI, education, primary language, job tenure and restaurant chain, the use of slip-resistant shoes was associated with a 54% reduction in the reported rate of slipping (95% CI 37% to 64%), and the rate of slipping decreased by 21% (95% CI 5% to 34%) for each 0.1 increase in the mean kitchen COF. Increasing floor cleaning frequency was significantly associated with a decreasing rate of slipping when considered in isolation but not after statistical adjustment for other factors. CONCLUSION: These results provide support for the use of slip-resistant shoes and measures to increase COF as preventive interventions to reduce slips, falls and injuries.

Rushing, distraction, walking on contaminated floors and risk of slipping in limited-service restaurants: a case--crossover study.

OBJECTIVES: This nested case-crossover study examined the association between rushing, distraction and walking on a contaminated floor and the rate of slipping, and whether the effects varied according to weekly hours worked, job tenure and use of slip-resistant shoes. METHODS: At baseline, workers from 30 limited-service restaurants in the USA reported average work hours, average weekly duration of exposure to each transient risk factor and job tenure at the current location. Use of slip-resistant shoes was determined. During the following 12 weeks, participants reported weekly their slip experience and exposures to the three transient exposures at the time of slipping. The case-crossover design was used to estimate the rate ratios using the Mantel-Haenszel estimator for person-time data. RESULTS: Among 396 participants providing baseline information, 210 reported one or more slips with a total of 989 slips. Rate of slipping was 2.9 times higher when rushing as compared to working at a normal pace (95% CI 2.5 to 3.3). Rate of slipping was also significantly increased by distraction (rate ratio (RR) 1.7, 95% CI 1.5 to 2.0) and walking on a contaminated floor (RR 14.6, 95% CI 12.6 to 17.0). Use of slip-resistant shoes decreased the effects of rushing and walking on a contaminated floor. Rate ratios for all three transient factors decreased monotonically as job tenure increased. CONCLUSION: The results suggest the importance of these transient risk factors, particularly floor contamination, on rate of slipping in limited-service restaurant workers. Stable characteristics, such as slip-resistant shoes, reduced the effects of transient exposures.