Zika virus: Endemic and epidemic ranges of Aedes mosquito transmission.

As evidence linking Zika virus with serious health complications strengthens, public health officials and clinicians worldwide need to know which locations are likely to be at risk for autochthonous Zika infections. We created risk maps for epidemic and endemic Aedes-borne Zika virus infections globally using a predictive analysis method that draws on temperature, precipitation, elevation, land cover, and population density variables to identify locations suitable for mosquito activity seasonally or year-round. Aedes mosquitoes capable of transmitting Zika and other viruses are likely to live year-round across many tropical areas in the Americas, Africa, and Asia. Our map provides an enhanced global projection of where vector control initiatives may be most valuable for reducing the risk of Zika virus and other Aedes-borne infections.

Geographically weighted discriminant analysis of environmental conditions associated with Rift Valley fever outbreaks in South Africa.

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic arboviral infection that has occurred across Africa and parts of the Middle East. Geographically weighted discriminant analysis (GWDA) is a spatially-adaptive extension of traditional discriminant analysis (DA) which has rarely been applied to infectious disease epidemiology research. This study compares the classification performance of GWDA and traditional DA when used to distinguish between locations where livestock are at risk or are not at risk for acquiring RVF virus (RVFV) using 699 case reports of RVF (affecting 18,894 animals) from two outbreaks in South Africa in 2008-2009 and 2010-2011. GWDA produced better results than traditional DA for all bandwidth and kernel combinations. The best GWDA model correctly classified 96.6% of the original data versus 84.5% obtained with traditional DA. With GWDA, false positives decreased from 10.9% to 3.7%, and false negatives decreased from 19.9% to 3.2%.

Risk analysis for dengue suitability in Africa using the ArcGIS predictive analysis tools (PA tools).

BACKGROUND: Risk maps identifying suitable locations for infection transmission are important for public health planning. Data on dengue infection rates are not readily available in most places where the disease is known to occur. METHODS: A newly available add-in to Esri's ArcGIS software package, the ArcGIS Predictive Analysis Toolset (PA Tools), was used to identify locations within Africa with environmental characteristics likely to be suitable for transmission of dengue virus. RESULTS: A more accurate, robust, and localized (1 km × 1 km) dengue risk map for Africa was created based on bioclimatic layers, elevation data, high-resolution population data, and other environmental factors that a search of the peer-reviewed literature showed to be associated with dengue risk. Variables related to temperature, precipitation, elevation, and population density were identified as good predictors of dengue suitability. Areas of high dengue suitability occur primarily within West Africa and parts of Central Africa and East Africa, but even in these regions the suitability is not homogenous. CONCLUSION: This risk mapping technique for an infection transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes draws on entomological, epidemiological, and geographic data. The method could be applied to other infectious diseases (such as Zika) in order to provide new insights for public health officials and others making decisions about where to increase disease surveillance activities and implement infection prevention and control efforts. The ability to map threats to human and animal health is important for tracking vectorborne and other emerging infectious diseases and modeling the likely impacts of climate change.

Mosquito habitat and dengue risk potential in Kenya: alternative methods to traditional risk mapping techniques.

Outbreaks, epidemics and endemic conditions make dengue a disease that has emerged as a major threat in tropical and sub-tropical countries over the past 30 years. Dengue fever creates a growing burden for public health systems and has the potential to affect over 40% of the world population. The problem being investigated is to identify the highest and lowest areas of dengue risk. This paper presents "Similarity Search", a geospatial analysis aimed at identifying these locations within Kenya. Similarity Search develops a risk map by combining environmental susceptibility analysis and geographical information systems, and then compares areas with dengue prevalence to all other locations. Kenya has had outbreaks of dengue during the past 3 years, and we identified areas with the highest susceptibility to dengue infection using bioclimatic variables, elevation and mosquito habitat as input to the model. Comparison of the modelled risk map with the reported dengue epidemic cases obtained from the open source reporting ProMED and Government news reports from 1982-2013 confirmed the high-risk locations that were used as the Similarity Search presence cells. Developing the risk model based upon the bioclimatic variables, elevation and mosquito habitat increased the efficiency and effectiveness of the dengue fever risk mapping process.

Assessing the methods needed for improved dengue mapping: a SWOT analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral infection, is a growing threat to human health in tropical and subtropical areas worldwide. There is a demand from public officials for maps that capture the current distribution of dengue and maps that analyze risk factors to predict the future burden of disease. METHODS: To identify relevant articles, we searched Google Scholar, PubMed, BioMed Central, and WHOLIS (World Health Organization Library Database) for published articles with a specific set of dengue criteria between January 2002 and July 2013. RESULTS: After evaluating the currently available dengue models, we identified four key barriers to the creation of high-quality dengue maps: (1) data limitations related to the expense of diagnosing and reporting dengue cases in places where health information systems are underdeveloped; (2) issues related to the use of socioeconomic proxies in places with limited dengue incidence data; (3) mosquito ranges which may be changing as a result of climate changes; and (4) the challenges of mapping dengue events at a variety of scales. CONCLUSION: An ideal dengue map will present endemic and epidemic dengue information from both rural and urban areas. Overcoming the current barriers requires expanded collaboration and data sharing by geographers, epidemiologists, and entomologists. Enhanced mapping techniques would allow for improved visualizations of dengue rates and risks.

Risk factors associated with human Rift Valley fever infection: systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factors for human Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) infection. METHODS: A systematic review identified 17 articles reporting on 16 studies examining risk factors for RVFV. Pooled odds ratios (pOR) were calculated for exposures examined in four or more studies. RESULTS: Being male [pOR = 1.4 (1.0, 1.8)], contact with aborted animal tissue [pOR = 3.4 (1.6, 7.3)], birthing an animal [pOR = 3.2 (2.4, 4.2)], skinning an animal [pOR = 2.5 (1.9, 3.2)], slaughtering an animal [pOR = 2.4 (1.4, 4.1)] and drinking raw milk [pOR = 1.8 (1.2, 2.6)] were significantly associated with RVF infection after meta-analysis. Other potential risk factors include sheltering animals in the home and milking an animal, which may both involve contact with animal body fluids. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the identified risk factors, use of personal protective equipment and disinfectants by animal handlers may help reduce RVFV transmission during outbreaks. Milk pasteurisation and other possible preventive methods require further investigation.

A validation of ground ambulance pre-hospital times modeled using geographic information systems.

BACKGROUND: Evaluating geographic access to health services often requires determining the patient travel time to a specified service. For urgent care, many research studies have modeled patient pre-hospital time by ground emergency medical services (EMS) using geographic information systems (GIS). The purpose of this study was to determine if the modeling assumptions proposed through prior United States (US) studies are valid in a non-US context, and to use the resulting information to provide revised recommendations for modeling travel time using GIS in the absence of actual EMS trip data. METHODS: The study sample contained all emergency adult patient trips within the Calgary area for 2006. Each record included four components of pre-hospital time (activation, response, on-scene and transport interval). The actual activation and on-scene intervals were compared with those used in published models. The transport interval was calculated within GIS using the Network Analyst extension of Esri ArcGIS 10.0 and the response interval was derived using previously established methods. These GIS derived transport and response intervals were compared with the actual times using descriptive methods. We used the information acquired through the analysis of the EMS trip data to create an updated model that could be used to estimate travel time in the absence of actual EMS trip records. RESULTS: There were 29,765 complete EMS records for scene locations inside the city and 529 outside. The actual median on-scene intervals were longer than the average previously reported by 7-8 minutes. Actual EMS pre-hospital times across our study area were significantly higher than the estimated times modeled using GIS and the original travel time assumptions. Our updated model, although still underestimating the total pre-hospital time, more accurately represents the true pre-hospital time in our study area. CONCLUSIONS: The widespread use of generalized EMS pre-hospital time assumptions based on US data may not be appropriate in a non-US context. The preference for researchers should be to use actual EMS trip records from the proposed research study area. In the absence of EMS trip data researchers should determine which modeling assumptions more accurately reflect the EMS protocols across their study area.

Dietary intake measured from a self-administered, online 24-hour recall system compared with 4-day diet records in an adult US population.

The objective of this study was to compare nutrient intake of two 24-hour recalls collected using the Automated Self-Administered 24-Hour Dietary Recall to a 4-day food record. A convenience sample of university-affiliated adults was chosen because of the diverse population at this university. Ninety-three participants completed the 4-day record and were then prompted to complete two 24-hour recalls within 2 weeks after. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated for nutrient intake and Healthy Eating Index 2005 (HEI-2005), a summary measure of diet quality. Nutrients and HEI-2005 were also divided into quartiles and percent agreement and κ values were calculated. Results indicated that mean nutrient intakes were similar across the recall and record. Pearson correlations comparing the record and recall ranged from 0.16 to 0.78; with most correlations being between 0.4 and 0.6. For quartiles of dietary intake, percent agreement was moderately high (62.6% to 79.8%), with low to moderate κ values (κ=0.11 to 0.52). The 24-hour recall provided a good overall ranking of intake compared to a 4-day food record. Overall correlations and percent agreement were moderate across the nutrients and HEI-2005, suggesting that the 24-recalls may have been capturing different information than the food record in our population. Individual researchers will need to weigh the benefits of a more automated system, such as efficiency, against the potential loss of food item detail and potential need for larger sample sizes, for their particular study populations.

Access to primary percutaneous coronary intervention for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction in Canada: a geographic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is preferred over fibrinolysis for the treatment of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). In the United States, nearly 80% of people aged 18 years and older have access to a PCI facility within 60 minutes. We conducted this study to evaluate the areas in Canada and the proportion of the population aged 40 years and older with access to a PCI facility within 60, 90 and 120 minutes. METHODS: We used geographic information systems to estimate travel times by ground transport to PCI facilities across Canada. Time to dispatch, time to patient and time at the scene were considered in the overall access times. Using 2006 Canadian census data, we extracted the number of adults aged 40 years and older who lived in areas with access to a PCI facility within 60, 90 and 120 minutes. We also examined the effect on these estimates of the hypothetical addition of new PCI facilities in underserved areas. RESULTS: Only a small proportion of the country's geographic area was within 60 minutes of a PCI facility. Despite this, 63.9% of Canadians aged 40 and older had such access. This proportion varied widely across provinces, from a low of 15.8% in New Brunswick to a high of 72.6% in Ontario. The hypothetical addition of a single facility to each of 4 selected provinces could increase the proportion by 3.2% to 4.3%, depending on the province. About 470 000 adults would gain access in such a scenario of new facilities. INTERPRETATION: We found that nearly two-thirds of Canada's population aged 40 years and older had timely access to PCI facilities. The proportion varied widely across the country. Such information can inform the development of regionalized STEMI care models.

Determining geographic areas and populations with timely access to cardiac catheterization facilities for acute myocardial infarction care in Alberta, Canada.

BACKGROUND: This study uses geographic information systems (GIS) as a tool to evaluate and visualize the general accessibility of areas within the province of Alberta (Canada) to cardiac catheterization facilities. Current American and European guidelines suggest performing catheterization within 90 minutes of the first medical contact. For this reason, this study evaluates the populated places that are within a 90 minute transfer time to a city with a catheterization facility. The three modes of transport considered in this study are ground ambulance, rotary wing air ambulance and fixed wing air ambulance. METHODS: Reference data from the Alberta Chart of Call were interpolated into continuous travel time surfaces. These continuous surfaces allowed for the delineation of isochrones: lines that connect areas of equal time. Using Dissemination Area (DA) centroids to represent the adult population, the population numbers were extracted from the isochrones using Statistics Canada census data. RESULTS: By extracting the adult population from within isochrones for each emergency transport mode analyzed, it was found that roughly 70% of the adult population of Alberta had access within 90 minutes to catheterization facilities by ground, roughly 66% of the adult population had access by rotary wing air ambulance and that no population had access within 90 minutes using the fixed wing air ambulance. An overall understanding of the nature of air vs. ground emergency travel was also uncovered; zones were revealed where the use of one mode would be faster than the others for reaching a facility. CONCLUSION: Catheter intervention for acute myocardial infarction is a time sensitive procedure. This study revealed that although a relatively small area of the province had access within the 90 minute time constraint, this area represented a large proportion of the population. Within Alberta, fixed wing air ambulance is not an effective means of transporting patients to a catheterization facility within the 90 minute time frame, though it becomes advantageous as a means of transportation for larger distances when there is less urgency.

Geographical location of residence and uniformity of access to cardiac revascularization services after catheterization.

BACKGROUND: The centralization of health care services has numerous potential benefits but April compromise access for individuals living in remote areas. OBJECTIVES: To examine the association between a patient's place of residence and the likelihood of undergoing a coronary revascularization procedure within one year after cardiac catheterization. METHODS: All Alberta residents undergoing cardiac catheterization between 1995 and 1998 were examined. Geographical distance from patient place of residence to a centralized catheterization facility was calculated. The adjusted odds of undergoing cardiac revascularization within one year of catheterization was determined as a function of distance, controlling for differences in patient age, clinical factors and economic status. RESULTS: Of 21816 residents who underwent cardiac catheterization in the province, 10997 had a revascularization procedure. Graphical examination of distance revealed a change in revascularization rates in patients living more than 450 km from revascularization centres. Further analysis was conducted using this cutpoint. Patients living in these remote areas were more likely to undergo a coronary revascularization procedure within the next year (adjusted odds ratio 1.65, 95% CI 1.05 to 2.59). However, these same residents were also less likely to undergo catheterization in the first place when compared with other Albertans (270 versus 398 procedures per 100000 population). CONCLUSION: Only a small proportion of the population living in Alberta's most remote areas were more likely to undergo a revascularization procedure, indicating a remarkable uniformity of access to revascularization after coronary cardiac catheterization has occurred. This study examines the use of an existing database to gain further insights into the relationship between geography and access to cardiac care, and the distance-access relationship for coronary revascularization in Alberta.

Accuracy of city postal code coordinates as a proxy for location of residence.

BACKGROUND: Health studies sometimes rely on postal code location as a proxy for the location of residence. This study compares the postal code location to that of the street address using a database from the Alberta Provincial Project for Outcome Assessment in Coronary Heart Disease (APPROACHCopyright ). Cardiac catheterization cases in an urban Canadian City were used for calendar year 1999. We determined location in meters for both the address (using the City of Calgary Street Network File in ArcView 3.2) and postal code location (using Statistic Canada's Postal Code Conversion File). RESULTS: The distance between the two estimates of location for each case were measured and it was found that 87.9% of the postal code locations were within 200 meters of the true address location (straight line distances) and 96.5% were within 500 meters of the address location (straight line distances). CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that postal code locations are a reasonably accurate proxy for address location. However, there may be research questions for which a more accurate description of location is required.