District-Level Forecast of Achieving Trachoma Elimination as a Public Health Problem By 2030: An Ensemble Modelling Approach.

Assessing the feasibility of 2030 as a target date for global elimination of trachoma, and identification of districts that may require enhanced treatment to meet World Health Organization (WHO) elimination criteria by this date are key challenges in operational planning for trachoma programmes. Here we address these challenges by prospectively evaluating forecasting models of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) prevalence, leveraging ensemble-based approaches. Seven candidate probabilistic models were developed to forecast district-wise TF prevalence in 11 760 districts, trained using district-level data on the population prevalence of TF in children aged 1-9 years from 2004 to 2022. Geographical location, history of mass drug administration treatment, and previously measured prevalence data were included in these models as key predictors. The best-performing models were included in an ensemble, using weights derived from their relative likelihood scores. To incorporate the inherent stochasticity of disease transmission and challenges of population-level surveillance, we forecasted probability distributions for the TF prevalence in each geographic district, rather than predicting a single value. Based on our probabilistic forecasts, 1.46% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.43-1.48%) of all districts in trachoma-endemic countries, equivalent to 172 districts, will exceed the 5% TF control threshold in 2030 with the current interventions. Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem by 2030 may require enhanced intervention and/or surveillance of high-risk districts.

Explaining the continuing high prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis unknown to the health system in evaluation units: a mixed methods explanatory study in four trachoma-endemic countries.

BACKGROUND: We explored reasons for continuing higher-than-anticipated prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis (TT) unknown to the health system in population-based prevalence surveys in evaluation units where full geographical coverage of TT case finding was reported. METHODS: A mixed-methods study in Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria and Tanzania was conducted. We compared data from clinical examination, campaign documentation and interviews with original trachoma impact survey (TIS) results. RESULTS: Of 169 TT cases identified by TIS teams, 130 (77%) were examined in this study. Of those, 90 (69%) were a match (both TIS and study teams agreed on TT classification) and 40 (31%) were a mismatch. Of the 40 mismatches, 22 (55%) were identified as unknown to the health system by the study team but as known to the health system by the TIS team; 12 (30%) were identified as not having TT by the study team but as having TT by the TIS team; and six (15%) were identified as unknown to the health system in the TIS team but as known to the health system by the study team based on documentation reviewed. CONCLUSIONS: Incorrectly reported geographical coverage of case-finding activities, and discrepancies in TT status between TIS results and more detailed assessments, are the key reasons identified for continuing high TT prevalence.

Gender differences in the surgical management of trachomatous trichiasis: an exploratory analysis of global trachoma survey data, 2015-2019.

BACKGROUND: Trachomatous trichiasis (TT) is a painful, potentially blinding eye condition that can be managed through epilation or surgery. Women are affected by TT approximately twice as often as men and are believed to face gendered barriers to receiving surgical care to prevent vision loss. METHODS: We used data from 817 cross-sectional surveys conducted during 2015-2019 in 20 African countries to estimate the prevalence difference (PD) between female and male eyes for four outcomes potentially indicating gender-related differences in TT management: (1) received surgery and developed postoperative TT (PTT), (2) never offered surgery, (3) offered surgery but declined it, and (4) offered epilation but never offered surgery. RESULTS: The prevalence was modestly elevated among female eyes compared with male eyes for having PTT (PD:1.8 [95% confidence limits (CL): 0.6, 3.0]) and having declined surgery for the eye (PD: 6.2 [95% CL: 1.8, 10.7]). The proportion offered epilation was similar by gender (PD:0.5 [95% CL: -0.4, 1.3]), while never having been offered surgery was somewhat more prevalent among male eyes (PD: -2.1 [95% CL: -3.5, -0.7]). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest potential gender differences in TT management. More research is needed to determine the causes and implications of the observed differences.