Beak and feather disease virus detected in the endangered Red Goshawk (Erythrotriorchis radiatus).

We report the first detection and prevalence of Beak and feather disease virus (BFDV) in Australia's Red Goshawk (Erythrotriorchis radiatus). This is a new host for this pervasive pathogen amongst a growing list of non-psittacine species including birds of prey from the orders Accipitriformes (hawks, eagles, kites), Falconiformes (falcons and caracas), and Strigiformes (owls). The Red Goshawk is the first non-psittacine species listed as Endangered to be diagnosed with BFDV. We report an initial case of infection discovered post-mortem in a dead nestling and subsequent surveillance of birds from across northern Australia. We reveal BFDV prevalence rates in a wild raptor population for the first time, with detections in 25% (n = 7/28) of Red Goshawks sampled. Prevalence appears higher in juveniles compared to adults, although not statistically significant, but is consistent with studies of wild psittacines. BFDV genotypes were associated with the Loriinae (lorikeets, budgerigar, and fig parrots), Cacatuini (Cockatoos), and Polytelini (long-tailed parrots) tribes; species which are preyed upon by Red Goshawks. A positive BFDV status may be associated with lower body mass but small sample sizes precluded robust statistical analysis. We postulate the possible impacts of the virus on Red Goshawks and discuss future research priorities given these preliminary observations.

Scaling up area-based conservation to implement the Global Biodiversity Framework's 30x30 target: The role of Nature's Strongholds.

The Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF), signed in 2022 by Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, recognized the importance of area-based conservation, and its goals and targets specify the characteristics of protected and conserved areas (PCAs) that disproportionately contribute to biodiversity conservation. To achieve the GBF's target of conserving a global area of 30% by 2030, this Essay argues for recognizing these characteristics and scaling them up through the conservation of areas that are: extensive (typically larger than 5,000 km2); have interconnected PCAs (either physically or as part of a jurisdictional network, and frequently embedded in larger conservation landscapes); have high ecological integrity; and are effectively managed and equitably governed. These areas are presented as "Nature's Strongholds," illustrated by examples from the Congo and Amazon basins. Conserving Nature's Strongholds offers an approach to scale up initiatives to address global threats to biodiversity.

Corticosteroid Therapy in Acute and Subacute Arachnoiditis - A Case Series.

Arachnoiditis is difficult to treat. Patients are often left frustrated after many failed trials of conservative therapies without symptom resolution. Surgery may provide symptom relief for a short period of time, but their pain often returned. Herein, we present three cases of acute arachnoiditis following three different pain procedures: epidural blood patch, IDDS implant, and epidural steroid injection. The patients were diagnosed and treated with corticosteroids within 10 days of the procedure. Two patients were treated with the same oral steroid regiment, while the third patient was treated with both oral and IV steroid. All three patients had good outcomes at the completion of their steroid therapy. This case series may provide insight into treating acute and subacute arachnoiditis from pain interventions.

Ecosystem effects of intraspecific variation in a colour polymorphic amphibian.

An emerging consensus suggests that evolved intraspecific variation can be ecologically important. However, evidence that evolved trait variation within vertebrates can influence fundamental ecosystem-level processes remains sparse. In this study, we sought to assess the potential for evolved variation in the spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum) to affect aquatic ecosystem properties. Spotted salamanders exhibit a conspicuous polymorphism in the colour of jelly encasing their eggs-some females produce clear jelly, while others produce white jelly. Although the functional significance of jelly colour variation remains largely speculative, evidence for differences in fecundity and the morphology of larvae suggests that the colour morphs might differ in the strength or identity of ecological effects. Here, we assessed the potential for frequency variation in spotted salamander colour morphs to influence fundamental physiochemical and ecosystem properties-dissolved organic carbon, conductivity, acidity and primary production-with a mesocosm experiment. By manipulating colour morph frequency across a range of larval densities, we were able to demonstrate that larva density and colour morph variation were ecologically relevant: population density reduced dissolved organic carbon and increased primary production while mesocosms stocked with white morph larvae tended to have higher dissolved organic carbon and conductivity. Thus, while an adaptive significance of jelly coloration remains hypothetical, our results show that colour morphs differentially influence key ecosystem properties-dissolved organic carbon and conductivity.

Temporal changes in SARS-CoV-2 clearance kinetics and the optimal design of antiviral pharmacodynamic studies: an individual patient data meta-analysis of a randomised, controlled, adaptive platform study (PLATCOV).

BACKGROUND: Effective antiviral drugs prevent hospitalisation and death from COVID-19. Antiviral efficacy can be efficiently assessed in vivo by measuring rates of SARS-CoV-2 clearance estimated from serial viral genome densities quantitated in nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal swab eluates. We conducted an individual patient data meta-analysis of unblinded arms in the PLATCOV platform trial to characterise changes in viral clearance kinetics and infer optimal design and interpretation of antiviral pharmacometric evaluations. METHODS: Serial viral density data were analysed from symptomatic, previously healthy, adult patients (within 4 days of symptom onset) enrolled in a large multicentre, randomised, adaptive, pharmacodynamic, platform trial (PLATCOV) comparing antiviral interventions for SARS-CoV-2. Viral clearance rates over 1 week were estimated under a hierarchical Bayesian linear model with B-splines used to characterise temporal changes in enrolment viral densities and clearance rates. Bootstrap re-sampling was used to assess the optimal duration of follow-up for pharmacometric assessment, where optimal was defined as maximising the expected Z score when comparing effective antivirals with no treatment. PLATCOV is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05041907. FINDINGS: Between Sept 29, 2021, and Oct 20, 2023, 1262 patients were randomly assigned in the PLATCOV trial. Unblinded data were available from 800 patients (who provided 16 818 oropharyngeal viral quantitative PCR [qPCR] measurements), of whom 504 (63%) were female. 783 (98%) patients had received at least one vaccine dose and 703 (88%) were fully vaccinated. SARS-CoV-2 viral clearance was biphasic (bi-exponential). The first phase (α) was accelerated by effective interventions. For all the effective interventions studied, maximum discriminative power (maximum expected Z score) was obtained when evaluating serial data from the first 5 days after enrolment. Over the 2-year period studied, median viral clearance half-lives estimated over 7 days shortened from 16·6 h (IQR 15·3 to 18·2) in September, 2021, to 9·2 h (8·0 to 10·6) in October, 2023, in patients receiving no antiviral drugs, equivalent to a relative reduction of 44% (95% credible interval [CrI] 19 to 64). A parallel reduction in viral clearance half-lives over time was observed in patients receiving antiviral drugs. For example, in the 158 patients assigned to ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir (3380 qPCR measurements), the median viral clearance half-life reduced from 6·4 h (IQR 5·7 to 7·3) in June, 2022, to 4·8 h (4·2 to 5·5) in October, 2023, a relative reduction of 26% (95% CrI -4 to 42). INTERPRETATION: SARS-CoV-2 viral clearance kinetics in symptomatic, vaccinated individuals accelerated substantially over 2 years of the pandemic, necessitating a change to how new SARS-CoV-2 antivirals are compared (ie, shortening the period of pharmacodynamic assessment). As of writing (October, 2023), antiviral efficacy in COVID-19 can be efficiently assessed in vivo using serial qPCRs from duplicate oropharyngeal swab eluates taken daily for 5 days after drug administration. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust.

Comparison of WHO versus national COVID-19 therapeutic guidelines across the world: not exactly a perfect match.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic affected all WHO member states. We compared and contrasted the COVID-19 treatment guidelines of each member state with the WHO COVID-19 therapeutic guidelines. METHODS: Ministries of Health or accessed National Infectious Disease websites and other relevant bodies and experts were contacted to obtain national guidelines (NGs) for COVID-19 treatment. NGs were included only if they delineated specific pharmacological treatments for COVID-19, which were stratified by disease severity. We conducted a retrospective review using the adapted Reporting Checklist for Public Versions of Guidelines (RIGHT-PVG) survey checklist and a derived comparative metric based on the WHO guidelines was performed. RESULTS: COVID-19 therapeutics NGs could be obtained from 109 of the 194 WHO member states. There was considerable variation in guidelines and in disease severity stratifications. Therapeutic recommendations in many NGs differed substantially from the WHO guidelines. Overall in late 2022, 93% of NGs were recommending at least one treatment which had proved to be ineffective in large randomised trials, and was not recommended by WHO. Corticosteroids were not recommended in severe disease in nearly 10% of NGs despite overwhelming evidence of their benefit. NGs from countries with low-resource settings showed the greatest divergence when stratified by gross domestic product per year, Human Development Index and the Global Health Security Index. DISCUSSION: Our study is limited to NGs that were readily accessible, and it does not reflect the availability of recommended medicines in the field. Three years after the start of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, available COVID-19 NGs vary substantially in their therapeutic recommendations, often differ from the WHO guidelines, and commonly recommend ineffective, unaffordable or unavailable medicines.

Do people with dementia and carers get what they need? Barriers in social care and carers needs assessments.

BACKGROUND: People with dementia and unpaid carers need to go through a social care or carers needs assessment to access and receive subsidised or fully-funded social care. With no previous evidence, this qualitative study aimed to provide insights into the access to, experiences of receiving and conducting social care or carers needs assessments, and access to social care. METHODS: Unpaid carers of people with dementia and professionals conducting social care or carers needs assessment living or working in England were interviewed remotely about their experiences between April and August 2023. Topic guides were co-produced with two unpaid carers, and both were supported to code anonymised transcripts. Thematic analysis was used to analyse the data. FINDINGS: Twenty-seven unpaid carers (n = 21) and professionals (n = 6) participated. Four themes were generated: (1) Issues with accessing needs assessments, not the process; (2) Knowledge of needs assessments and the health and social care system; (3) Expectations of unpaid carers; and (4) Post-assessment unmet needs. The most prominent barriers unpaid carers and their relatives with dementia encountered were awareness of and access to needs assessment. Unpaid carers were mostly unaware of the existence and entitlement to a needs assessment, and sometimes realised they had participated in one without their knowledge. Professionals described the pressures on their time and the lack of financial resources within services. CONCLUSIONS: To facilitate improved access to dementia care and support for carers, the pathway to accessing needs assessments needs to be clearer, with better integration and communication between health and social care.

Meaningful inclusion of people living with HIV as a model for workplace policies: Key findings from the project PEER study.

BACKGROUND: As a large number of people live with HIV, it is worthwhile to examine the integration of this group in the workplace. OBJECTIVE: To investigate how the operationalization of GIPA/MEPA supports workplace policies and practices for PLHIV. The study aims to explore what is being offered to support PLHIV in community-based agencies and what can be done to enhance the offerings. METHODS: For this community-based research, 2 bilingual online surveys were sent to 150 Canadian organizations that work closely with PLHIV or offer support to them. One of the surveys was for Executive Directors of these organizations while the other was sent to peers; i.e. PLHIV whose job is to offer services to PLHIV. Questions in the surveys varied between open-ended, binary, and Likert. RESULTS: GIPA/MEPA are implemented in most organizations and Executive Directors affirmed that PLHIV and their impacts on the workplace are valued. There is a consensus among Executive Directors that formal support is provided but most respondents argued that this support is not specific for PLHIV. More than half of respondents were either unaware or uncertain about the existence of informal support. Peer-employees claimed that one of the challenges of disclosing HIV to receive peer support is that they may face stigma. CONCLUSION: The application of GIPA/MEPA results in positive outcomes in the workplace. The study emphasizes the need to facilitate access to informal support.

Primaquine in glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency: an adaptive pharmacometric assessment of ascending dose regimens in healthy volunteers.

Background: Primaquine is an 8-aminoquinoline antimalarial. It is the only widely available treatment to prevent relapses of Plasmodium vivax malaria. The 8-aminoquinolines cause dose-dependent haemolysis in glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency (G6PDd). G6PDd is common in malaria endemic areas but testing is often not available. As a consequence primaquine is underused. Methods: We conducted an adaptive pharmacometric study to characterise the relationship between primaquine dose and haemolysis in G6PDd. The aim was to explore shorter and safer primaquine radical cure regimens compared to the currently recommended 8-weekly regimen (0.75 mg/kg once weekly), potentially obviating the need for G6PD testing. Hemizygous G6PDd healthy adult Thai and Burmese male volunteers were admitted to the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Bangkok. In Part 1, volunteers were given ascending dose primaquine regimens whereby daily doses were increased from 7.5 mg up to 45 mg over 15-20 days. In Part 2 conducted at least 6 months later, a single primaquine 45 mg dose was given. Results: 24 volunteers were enrolled in Part 1, and 16 in Part 2 (13 participated in both studies). In three volunteers, the ascending dose regimen was stopped because of haemolysis (n=1) and asymptomatic increases in transaminases (n=2; one was hepatitis E positive). Otherwise the ascending regimens were well tolerated with no drug-related serious adverse events. In Part 1, the median haemoglobin concentration decline was 3.7 g/dL (range: 2.1-5.9; relative decline of 26% [range: 15-40%]). Primaquine doses up to 0.87 mg/kg/day were tolerated subsequently without clinically significant further falls in haemoglobin. In Part 2, the median haemoglobin concentration decline was 1.7 g/dL (range 0.9-4.1; relative fall of 12% [range: 7-30% decrease]). The ascending dose primaquine regimens gave seven times more drug but resulted in only double the haemoglobin decline. Conclusions: In patients with Southeast Asian G6PDd variants, full radical cure treatment can be given in under 3 weeks compared with the current 8-week regimen. Funding: Medical Research Council of the United Kingdom (MR/R015252/1) and Wellcome (093956/Z/10/C, 223253/Z/21/Z). Clinical trial number: Thai Clinical Trial Registry: TCTR20170830002 and TCTR20220317004.

The relationship between viral clearance rates and disease progression in early symptomatic COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis.

BACKGROUND: Effective antiviral drugs accelerate viral clearance in acute COVID-19 infections; the relationship between accelerating viral clearance and reducing severe clinical outcomes is unclear. METHODS: A systematic review was conducted of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of antiviral therapies in early symptomatic COVID-19, where viral clearance data were available. Treatment benefit was defined clinically as the relative risk of hospitalization/death during follow-up (≥14 days), and virologically as the SARS-CoV-2 viral clearance rate ratio (VCRR). The VCRR is the ratio of viral clearance rates between the intervention and control arms. The relationship between the clinical and virological treatment effects was assessed by mixed-effects meta-regression. RESULTS: From 57 potentially eligible RCTs, VCRRs were derived for 44 (52 384 participants); 32 had ≥1 clinical endpoint in each arm. Overall, 9.7% (R2) of the variation in clinical benefit was explained by variation in VCRRs with an estimated linear coefficient of -0.92 (95% CI: -1.99 to 0.13; P = 0.08). However, this estimate was highly sensitive to the inclusion of the recent very large PANORAMIC trial. Omitting this outlier, half the variation in clinical benefit (R2 = 50.4%) was explained by variation in VCRRs [slope -1.47 (95% CI -2.43 to -0.51); P = 0.003], i.e. higher VCRRs were associated with an increased clinical benefit. CONCLUSION: Methods of determining viral clearance in COVID-19 studies and the relationship to clinical outcomes vary greatly. As prohibitively large sample sizes are now required to show clinical treatment benefit in antiviral therapeutic assessments, viral clearance is a reasonable surrogate endpoint.

Response to comment on 'The clinical pharmacology of tafenoquine in the radical cure of Plasmodium vivax malaria: An individual patient data meta-analysis'.

In our recent paper on the clinical pharmacology of tafenoquine (Watson et al., 2022), we used all available individual patient pharmacometric data from the tafenoquine pre-registration clinical efficacy trials to characterise the determinants of anti-relapse efficacy in tropical vivax malaria. We concluded that the currently recommended dose of tafenoquine (300 mg in adults, average dose of 5 mg/kg) is insufficient for cure in all adults, and a 50% increase to 450 mg (7.5 mg/kg) would halve the risk of vivax recurrence by four months. We recommended that clinical trials of higher doses should be carried out to assess their safety and tolerability. Sharma and colleagues at the pharmaceutical company GSK defend the currently recommended adult dose of 300 mg as the optimum balance between radical curative efficacy and haemolytic toxicity (Sharma et al., 2024). We contend that the relative haemolytic risks of the 300 mg and 450 mg doses have not been sufficiently well characterised to justify this opinion. In contrast, we provided evidence that the currently recommended 300 mg dose results in sub-maximal efficacy, and that prospective clinical trials of higher doses are warranted to assess their risks and benefits.

Identifying longitudinal healthcare pathways and subsequent mortality for people living with dementia in England: an observational group-based trajectory analysis.

BACKGROUND: The number of people living with dementia (PLWD) continues to increase, particularly those with severe symptomatology. Severe symptoms and greater ill-health result in more acute care need. Early healthcare interventions can prove beneficial. Healthcare use has not been analysed as a holistic set of interlinked events. This study explores different healthcare pathways among PLWD, social or spatial inequalities in healthcare pathways and subsequent mortality risk. METHODS: Group-based trajectory models (GBTM) were applied to electronic healthcare records. We generated clusters of PLWD with similar five-year, post-diagnosis trajectories in rates of primary and secondary healthcare use. Potential social and spatial variations in healthcare use clusters were examined. Cox Proportional Hazards used to explore variation in subsequent mortality risk between healthcare use clusters. RESULTS: Four healthcare use clusters were identified in both early- (n = 3732) and late-onset (n = 6224) dementia populations. Healthcare use variations were noted; consistent or diminishing healthcare use was associated with lower subsequent mortality risk. Increasing healthcare use was associated with increased mortality risk. Descriptive analyses indicated social and spatial variation in healthcare use cluster membership. CONCLUSION: Healthcare pathways can help indicate changing need and variation in need, with differential patterns in initial healthcare use post-diagnosis, producing similar subsequent mortality risk. Care in dementia needs to be more accessible and appropriate, with care catered to specific and changing needs. Better continuity of care and greater awareness of dementia in primary can enhance prospects for PLWD. Research needs to further illuminate holistic care need for PLWD, including health and social care use, inequalities in care, health and outcomes.

Spatial Analysis of Drug-Susceptible and Multidrug-Resistant Cases of Tuberculosis, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, 2020-2023.

We characterized the spatial distribution of drug-susceptible (DS) and multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (TB) cases in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, a major metropolis in southeastern Asia, and explored demographic and socioeconomic factors associated with local TB burden. Hot spots of DS and MDR TB incidence were observed in the central parts of Ho Chi Minh City, and substantial heterogeneity was observed across wards. Positive spatial autocorrelation was observed for both DS TB and MDR TB. Ward-level TB incidence was associated with HIV prevalence and the male proportion of the population. No ward-level demographic and socioeconomic indicators were associated with MDR TB case count relative to total TB case count. Our findings might inform spatially targeted TB control strategies and provide insights for generating hypotheses about the nature of the relationship between DS and MDR TB in Ho Chi Minh City and the wider southeastern region of Asia.

Assessing adequacy of citizen science datasets for biodiversity monitoring.

Tracking the state of biodiversity over time is critical to successful conservation, but conventional monitoring schemes tend to be insufficient to adequately quantify how species' abundances and distributions are changing. One solution to this issue is to leverage data generated by citizen scientists, who collect vast quantities of data at temporal and spatial scales that cannot be matched by most traditional monitoring methods. However, the quality of citizen science data can vary greatly. In this paper, we develop three metrics (inventory completeness, range completeness, spatial bias) to assess the adequacy of spatial observation data. We explore the adequacy of citizen science data at the species level for Australia's terrestrial native birds and then model these metrics against a suite of seven species traits (threat status, taxonomic uniqueness, body mass, average count, range size, species density, and human population density) to identify predictors of data adequacy. We find that citizen science data adequacy for Australian birds is increasing across two of our metrics (inventory completeness and range completeness), but not spatial bias, which has worsened over time. Relationships between the three metrics and seven traits we modelled were variable, with only two traits having consistently significant relationships across the three metrics. Our results suggest that although citizen science data adequacy has generally increased over time, there are still gaps in the spatial adequacy of citizen science for monitoring many Australian birds. Despite these gaps, citizen science can play an important role in biodiversity monitoring by providing valuable baseline data that may be supplemented by information collected through other methods. We believe the metrics presented here constitute an easily applied approach to assessing the utility of citizen science datasets for biodiversity analyses, allowing researchers to identify and prioritise regions or species with lower data adequacy that will benefit most from targeted monitoring efforts.

Risk assessment for aortic dissection in Turner syndrome: The role of the aortic growth rate.

OBJECTIVE: The risk of aortic dissection (AoD) is increased in Turner syndrome (TS) but predicting those at risk is difficult. Based on scarce evidence, preventive aortic surgery is recommended when aortic diameter increases >5 mm/year. To investigate the aortic growth rate in TS and TS-related conditions associated with aortic growth. We also reported our experience of women who suffered aortic dissection (AoD), and who had preventive aortic replacement. METHODS: 151 adult TS were retrospectively identified. Women who had more than one transthoracic echocardiogram (TTE) after age 16 years were included in the aortic growth study. Aortic diameters at sinuses of Valsalva (SoV) and ascending aorta (AA) were analysed by two experts. RESULTS: 70/151 women had more than one TTE (interscan interval 4.7 years). Mean aortic growth was 0.13 ± 0.59 mm/year at SoV and 0.23 ± 0.82 mm/year at AA. Known risk factors for aortic dilatation and TS-related conditions were not associated with aortic growth. 4/151 women experienced AoD (age 25±8 years): two had paired scans for aortic growth, which was 0.67 mm/year at both SoV and AA in the first woman, and 11 mm/year (SoV) and 4 mm/year (AA) in the second. Only 1/4 of women with AoD survived; she used a TS cardiac-alert card to inform emergency personnel about her risk of AoD. 5/151 had a preventive aortic replacement, but one died post-operatively. CONCLUSIONS: Mean aortic growth in our TS population was increased compared to non-TS women and was not associated with currently known risk factors for AoD, suggesting that aortic growth rate itself could be a useful variable to stratify who is at risk for AoD.

Stable isotope chemistry reveals plant-dominant diet among early foragers on the Andean Altiplano, 9.0-6.5 cal. ka.

Current models of early human subsistence economies suggest a focus on large mammal hunting. To evaluate this hypothesis, we examine human bone stable isotope chemistry of 24 individuals from the early Holocene sites of Wilamaya Patjxa (9.0-8.7 cal. ka) and Soro Mik'aya Patjxa (8.0-6.5 cal. ka) located at 3800 meters above sea level on the Andean Altiplano, Peru. Contrary to expectation, Bayesian mixing models based on the isotope chemistry reveal that plants dominated the diet, comprising 70-95% of the average diet. Paleoethnobotanical data further show that tubers may have been the most prominent subsistence resource. These findings update our understanding of earliest forager economies and the pathway to agricultural economies in the Andean highlands. The findings furthermore suggest that the initial subsistence economies of early human populations adapting to new landscapes may have been more plant oriented than current models suggest.

Clinical antiviral efficacy of favipiravir in early COVID-19 (PLATCOV): an open-label, randomised, controlled, adaptive platform trial.

In early symptomatic COVID-19 treatment, high dose oral favipiravir did not accelerate viral clearance. BACKGROUND: Favipiravir, an anti-influenza drug, has in vitro antiviral activity against SARS-CoV-2. Clinical trial evidence to date is inconclusive. Favipiravir has been recommended for the treatment of COVID-19 in some countries. METHODS: In a multicentre open-label, randomised, controlled, adaptive platform trial, low-risk adult patients with early symptomatic COVID-19 were randomised to one of ten treatment arms including high dose oral favipiravir (3.6g on day 0 followed by 1.6g daily to complete 7 days treatment) or no study drug. The primary outcome was the rate of viral clearance (derived under a linear mixed-effects model from the daily log10 viral densities in standardised duplicate oropharyngeal swab eluates taken daily over 8 days [18 swabs per patient]), assessed in a modified intention-to-treat population (mITT). The safety population included all patients who received at least one dose of the allocated intervention. This ongoing adaptive platform trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05041907) on 13/09/2021. RESULTS: In the final analysis, the mITT population contained data from 114 patients randomised to favipiravir and 126 patients randomised concurrently to no study drug. Under the linear mixed-effects model fitted to all oropharyngeal viral density estimates in the first 8 days from randomisation (4,318 swabs), there was no difference in the rate of viral clearance between patients given favipiravir and patients receiving no study drug; a -1% (95% credible interval: -14 to 14%) difference. High dose favipiravir was well-tolerated. INTERPRETATION: Favipiravir does not accelerate viral clearance in early symptomatic COVID-19. The viral clearance rate estimated from quantitative measurements of oropharyngeal eluate viral densities assesses the antiviral efficacy of drugs in vivo with comparatively few studied patients.

Antiviral efficacy of molnupiravir versus ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir in patients with early symptomatic COVID-19 (PLATCOV): an open-label, phase 2, randomised, controlled, adaptive trial.

BACKGROUND: Molnupiravir and ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir are the two leading oral COVID-19 antiviral treatments, but their antiviral activities in patients have not been compared directly. The aim of this ongoing platform trial is to compare different antiviral treatments using the rate of viral clearance as the measure of antiviral effect. METHODS: PLATCOV is an open-label, multicentre, phase 2, randomised, controlled, adaptive pharmacometric platform trial running in Thailand, Brazil, Pakistan, and Laos. The component of the trial reported here was conducted in the Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand. We recruited low-risk adult patients aged 18-50 years with early symptomatic COVID-19 (<4 days of symptoms). Eligible patients were randomly assigned using block randomisation via a centralised web app to one of seven treatment groups: molnupiravir, ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir, casirivimab-imdevimab, tixagevimab-cilgavimab, favipiravir, fluoxetine, or no study drug. The no study drug group comprised a minimum proportion of 20% of patients at all times, with uniform randomisation ratios applied across the active treatment groups. Results for the concurrently randomised molnupiravir, ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir, and no study drug groups are reported here. The primary endpoint was the rate of oropharyngeal viral clearance assessed in a modified intention-to-treat population, defined as patients with more than 2 days of follow-up. Safety was assessed in all participants who took at least one dose of the medication. The viral clearance rate was derived under a Bayesian hierarchical linear model fitted to the log10 viral densities in standardised duplicate oropharyngeal swab eluates taken daily over 1 week (18 measurements). Treatment groups with a probability of more than 0·9 that viral clearance was accelerated by more than 20% compared with no drug entered a non-inferiority comparison (with a 10% non-inferiority margin) compared with the platform's current most effective drug. This ongoing trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05041907. FINDINGS: Between June 6, 2022, and Feb 23, 2023, 209 patients in Thailand were enrolled and concurrently randomly assigned to molnupiravir (n=65), ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir (n=59), or no study drug (n=85). 129 (62%) of the patients were female and 80 (38%) were male. Relative to the no study drug group, the rates of viral clearance were 37% (95% credible interval 16-65) faster with molnupiravir and 84% (54-119) faster with ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir. In the non-inferiority comparison, viral clearance was 25% (10-38) slower with molnupiravir than ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir. Molnupiravir was removed from the study platform when it reached the prespecified inferiority margin of 10% compared with ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir. Median estimated viral clearance half-lives were 8·5 h (IQR 6·7-10·1) with ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir, 11·6 h (8·6-15·4) with molnupiravir, and 15·5 h (11·9-21·2) with no study drug. Viral rebound occurred more frequently following nirmatrelvir (six [10%] of 58) compared with the no study drug (one [1%] of 84; p=0·018) or the molnupiravir (one [2%] of 65; p=0·051) groups. Persistent infections following molnupiravir had more viral mutations (three of nine patients had an increased number of single nucleotide polymorphisms in samples collected at 7 or more days compared with those at baseline) than after nirmatrelvir (zero of three) or no study drug (zero of 19). There were no adverse events of grade 3 or worse, or serious adverse events in any of the reported treatment groups. INTERPRETATION: Both molnupiravir and ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir accelerate oropharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 viral clearance in patients with COVID-19, but the antiviral effect of ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir was substantially greater. Measurement of oropharyngeal viral clearance rates provides a rapid and well tolerated approach to the assessment and comparison of antiviral drugs in patients with COVID-19. It should be evaluated in other acute viral respiratory infections. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust through the COVID-19 Therapeutics Accelerator.