Association between wildfires and coccidioidomycosis incidence in California, 2000-2018: a synthetic control analysis.

The frequency and severity of wildfires in the Western United States have increased over recent decades, motivating hypotheses that wildfires contribute to the incidence of coccidioidomycosis, an emerging fungal disease in the Western United States with sharp increases in incidence observed since 2000. While coccidioidomycosis outbreaks have occurred among wildland firefighters clearing brush, it remains unknown whether fires are associated with an increased incidence among the general population. Methods: We identified 19 wildfires occurring within California's highly endemic San Joaquin Valley between 2003 and 2015. Using geolocated surveillance records, we applied a synthetic control approach to estimate the effect of each wildfire on the incidence of coccidioidomycosis among residents that lived within a hexagonal buffer of 20 km radii surrounding the fire. Results: We did not detect excess cases due to wildfires in the 12 months (pooled estimated percent change in cases: 2.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI] = -29.0, 85.2), 13-24 months (7.9%; 95% CI = -27.3, 113.9), or 25-36 months (17.4%; 95% CI = -25.1, 157.1) following a wildfire. When examined individually, we detected significant increases in incidence following three of the 19 wildfires, all of which had relatively large adjacent populations, high transmission before the fire, and a burn area exceeding 5,000 acres. Discussion: We find limited evidence that wildfires drive increases in coccidioidomycosis incidence among the general population. Nevertheless, our results raise concerns that large fires in regions with ongoing local transmission of Coccidioides may be associated with increases in incidence, underscoring the need for field studies examining Coccidioides spp. in soils and air pre- and post-wildfires.

Environmental Factors Influencing COVID-19 Incidence and Severity.

Emerging evidence supports a link between environmental factors-including air pollution and chemical exposures, climate, and the built environment-and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) susceptibility and severity. Climate, air pollution, and the built environment have long been recognized to influence viral respiratory infections, and studies have established similar associations with COVID-19 outcomes. More limited evidence links chemical exposures to COVID-19. Environmental factors were found to influence COVID-19 through four major interlinking mechanisms: increased risk of preexisting conditions associated with disease severity; immune system impairment; viral survival and transport; and behaviors that increase viral exposure. Both data and methodologic issues complicate the investigation of these relationships, including reliance on coarse COVID-19 surveillance data; gaps in mechanistic studies; and the predominance of ecological designs. We evaluate the strength of evidence for environment-COVID-19 relationships and discuss environmental actions that might simultaneously address the COVID-19 pandemic, environmental determinants of health, and health disparities.

Trade-off between fecundity and survival generates stabilizing selection on gall size.

Complex interactions within multitrophic communities are fundamental to the evolution of individual species that reside within them. One common outcome of species interactions are fitness trade-offs, where traits adaptive in some circumstances are maladaptive in others. Here, we identify a fitness trade-off between fecundity and survival in the cynipid wasp Callirhytis quercusbatatoides that induces multichambered galls on the stem of its host plant Quercus virginiana. We first quantified this trade-off in natural populations by documenting two relationships: a positive association between the trait gall size and fecundity, as larger galls contain more offspring, and a negative association between gall size and survival, as larger galls are attacked by birds at a higher rate. Next, we performed a field-based experimental evolution study where birds were excluded from the entire canopy of 11 large host trees for five years. As a result of the five-year release from avian predators, we observed a significant shift to larger galls per tree. Overall, our study demonstrates how two opposing forces of selection can generate stabilizing selection on a critical phenotypic trait in wild populations, and how traits can evolve rapidly in the predicted direction when conditions change.

Human-mediated disturbance in multitrophic interactions results in outbreak levels of North America's most venomous caterpillar.

Anthropogenic environmental change is predicted to disrupt multitrophic interactions, which may have drastic consequences for population-level processes. Here, we investigate how a large-scale human-mediated disturbance affects the abundance of North America's most venomous caterpillar species, Megalopyge opercularis. Specifically, we used a natural experiment where netting was deployed to cover the entire canopies of a subset of mature southern live oak trees (Quercus virginiana) to exclude urban pest birds (grackles and pigeons), throughout an 8.1 km2 area encompassing a medical centre in Houston, Texas. We used this experimental exclusion to test the following hypothesis: release from avian predators increases caterpillar abundance to outbreak levels, which increases the risk to human health. Results from a multi-year survey show that caterpillar abundance increased, on average, more than 7300% on netted versus non-netted trees. Thus, increases in caterpillar abundance due to anthropogenic enemy release increase human exposure to this venomous pest, and should be considered a health threat in the area. This study emphasizes the unforeseen consequences of ecological disturbance for species interactions and highlights the importance of considering ecology in urban planning.