An ensemble-based likelihood ratio approach for family-based genomic risk prediction.

OBJECTIVE: As one of the most popular designs used in genetic research, family-based design has been well recognized for its advantages, such as robustness against population stratification and admixture. With vast amounts of genetic data collected from family-based studies, there is a great interest in studying the role of genetic markers from the aspect of risk prediction. This study aims to develop a new statistical approach for family-based risk prediction analysis with an improved prediction accuracy compared with existing methods based on family history. METHODS: In this study, we propose an ensemble-based likelihood ratio (ELR) approach, Fam-ELR, for family-based genomic risk prediction. Fam-ELR incorporates a clustered receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve method to consider correlations among family samples, and uses a computationally efficient tree-assembling procedure for variable selection and model building. RESULTS: Through simulations, Fam-ELR shows its robustness in various underlying disease models and pedigree structures, and attains better performance than two existing family-based risk prediction methods. In a real-data application to a family-based genome-wide dataset of conduct disorder, Fam-ELR demonstrates its ability to integrate potential risk predictors and interactions into the model for improved accuracy, especially on a genome-wide level. CONCLUSIONS: By comparing existing approaches, such as genetic risk-score approach, Fam-ELR has the capacity of incorporating genetic variants with small or moderate marginal effects and their interactions into an improved risk prediction model. Therefore, it is a robust and useful approach for high-dimensional family-based risk prediction, especially on complex disease with unknown or less known disease etiology.

A new mapping method for quantitative trait loci of silkworm.

BACKGROUND: Silkworm is the basis of sericultural industry and the model organism in insect genetics study. Mapping quantitative trait loci (QTLs) underlying economically important traits of silkworm is of high significance for promoting the silkworm molecular breeding and advancing our knowledge on genetic architecture of the Lepidoptera. Yet, the currently used mapping methods are not well suitable for silkworm, because of ignoring the recombination difference in meiosis between two sexes. RESULTS: A mixed linear model including QTL main effects, epistatic effects, and QTL × sex interaction effects was proposed for mapping QTLs in an F2 population of silkworm. The number and positions of QTLs were determined by F-test and model selection. The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm was employed to estimate and test genetic effects of QTLs and QTL × sex interaction effects. The effectiveness of the model and statistical method was validated by a series of simulations. The results indicate that when markers are distributed sparsely on chromosomes, our method will substantially improve estimation accuracy as compared to the normal chiasmate F2 model. We also found that a sample size of hundreds was sufficiently large to unbiasedly estimate all the four types of epistases (i.e., additive-additive, additive-dominance, dominance-additive, and dominance-dominance) when the paired QTLs reside on different chromosomes in silkworm. CONCLUSION: The proposed method could accurately estimate not only the additive, dominance and digenic epistatic effects but also their interaction effects with sex, correcting the potential bias and precision loss in the current QTL mapping practice of silkworm and thus representing an important addition to the arsenal of QTL mapping tools.