Integrating Economic Theory, Domain Knowledge, and Social Knowledge into Hybrid Sentiment Models for Predicting Crude Oil Markets.

For several decades, sentiment analysis has been considered a key indicator for assessing market mood and predicting future price changes. Accurately predicting commodity markets requires an understanding of fundamental market dynamics such as the interplay between supply and demand, which are not considered in standard affective models. This paper introduces two domain-specific affective models, CrudeBERT and CrudeBERT+, that adapt sentiment analysis to the crude oil market by incorporating economic theory with common knowledge of the mentioned entities and social knowledge extracted from Google Trends. To evaluate the predictive capabilities of these models, comprehensive experiments were conducted using dynamic time warping to identify the model that best approximates WTI crude oil futures price movements. The evaluation included news headlines and crude oil prices between January 2012 and April 2021. The results show that CrudeBERT+ outperformed RavenPack, BERT, FinBERT, and early CrudeBERT models during the 9-year evaluation period and within most of the individual years that were analyzed. The success of the introduced domain-specific affective models demonstrates the potential of integrating economic theory with sentiment analysis and external knowledge sources to improve the predictive power of financial sentiment analysis models. The experiments also confirm that CrudeBERT+ has the potential to provide valuable insights for decision-making in the crude oil market.

Automatic Expansion of Domain-Specific Affective Models for Web Intelligence Applications.

Sentic computing relies on well-defined affective models of different complexity-polarity to distinguish positive and negative sentiment, for example, or more nuanced models to capture expressions of human emotions. When used to measure communication success, even the most granular affective model combined with sophisticated machine learning approaches may not fully capture an organisation's strategic positioning goals. Such goals often deviate from the assumptions of standardised affective models. While certain emotions such as Joy and Trust typically represent desirable brand associations, specific communication goals formulated by marketing professionals often go beyond such standard dimensions. For instance, the brand manager of a television show may consider fear or sadness to be desired emotions for its audience. This article introduces expansion techniques for affective models, combining common and commonsense knowledge available in knowledge graphs with language models and affective reasoning, improving coverage and consistency as well as supporting domain-specific interpretations of emotions. An extensive evaluation compares the performance of different expansion techniques: (i) a quantitative evaluation based on the revisited Hourglass of Emotions model to assess performance on complex models that cover multiple affective categories, using manually compiled gold standard data, and (ii) a qualitative evaluation of a domain-specific affective model for television programme brands. The results of these evaluations demonstrate that the introduced techniques support a variety of embeddings and pre-trained models. The paper concludes with a discussion on applying this approach to other scenarios where affective model resources are scarce.

Analyzing the public discourse on works of fiction - Detection and visualization of emotion in online coverage about HBO's Game of Thrones.

This paper presents a Web intelligence portal that captures and aggregates news and social media coverage about "Game of Thrones", an American drama television series created for the HBO television network based on George R.R. Martin's series of fantasy novels. The system collects content from the Web sites of Anglo-American news media as well as from four social media platforms: Twitter, Facebook, Google+ and YouTube. An interactive dashboard with trend charts and synchronized visual analytics components not only shows how often Game of Thrones events and characters are being mentioned by journalists and viewers, but also provides a real-time account of concepts that are being associated with the unfolding storyline and each new episode. Positive or negative sentiment is computed automatically, which sheds light on the perception of actors and new plot elements.