Hyperglycemia, Ischemic Lesions, and Functional Outcomes After Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

Background Ischemic lesions observed on diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) magnetic resonance imaging are associated with poor outcomes after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). We evaluated the association between hyperglycemia, ischemic lesions, and functional outcomes after ICH. Methods and Results This was a retrospective observational analysis of 1167 patients who received magnetic resonance imaging in the ERICH (Ethnic and Racial Variations in Intracerebral Hemorrhage) study. A machine learning strategy using the elastic net regularization and selection procedure was used to perform automated variable selection to identify final multivariable logistic regression models. Sensitivity analyses with alternative model development strategies were performed, and predictive performance was compared. After covariate adjustment, white matter hyperintensity score, leukocyte count on admission, and non-Hispanic Black race (compared with non-Hispanic White race) were associated with the presence of DWI lesions. History of ICH and ischemic stroke, presence of DWI lesions, deep ICH location (versus lobar), ICH volume, age, lower Glasgow Coma Score on admission, and medical history of diabetes were associated with poor 6-month modified Rankin Scale outcome (4-6) after covariate adjustment. Inclusion of interactions between race and ethnicity and variables included in the final multivariable model for functional outcome improved model performance; a significant interaction between race and ethnicity and medical history of diabetes and serum blood glucose on admission was observed. Conclusions No measure of hyperglycemia or diabetes was associated with presence of DWI lesions. However, both medical history of diabetes and presence of DWI lesions were independently associated with poor functional outcomes after ICH.

Evaluation by Survival Analysis of Cold Pain Tolerance in Patients with Fibromyalgia and Opioid Use.

Purpose: The cold pressor test (CPT) is a clinical pain research method used to measure cold pain tolerance. During this test, participants immerse an extremity (ie, hand or foot) into cold water for as long as tolerable. The duration of the test (traditionally up to an experimentally imposed cut-off at 2 minutes) indicates the amount of cold pain tolerance by the participant. Prior research studies have investigated cold pain tolerance in patients with chronic pain. However, few of these studies have used survival analysis, which allows for proper handling of data censoring and is therefore, an optimal statistical method for CPT data analysis. The goal of the present study was to use survival analysis to evaluate cold pain tolerance in patients with fibromyalgia. Furthermore, we aimed to model relationships between psychological and clinical variables as well as opioid medication use and cold pain tolerance. Patients and Methods: A total of 85 patients with fibromyalgia (42 who were taking opioids) and 47 healthy pain-free controls provided CPT and questionnaire data (collected across 2 study sites) for a case-control study. We used survival analysis using Cox regression to evaluate group differences (patients vs controls) in cold pain tolerance and to evaluate cold pain tolerance relationships with psychological, clinical, and medication use. Results: As compared to healthy controls, patients with fibromyalgia exhibited significantly lower CPT survival (HR = 2.17, 95% CI: [1.42, 3.31], p = 0.00035). As indicated by Cox regression models, the significant group difference in CPT survival did not relate to our selected psychological and clinical measures (p > 0.05). The groups of non-opioid-taking patients and healthy controls showed consistent CPT survival across study sites. However, patients taking opioid pain medications showed differences in CPT survival across study sites. Conclusion: By using survival analysis, an optimal method for time-to-event pain measures such as the CPT, we confirmed previously identified reductions in cold pain tolerance in patients with fibromyalgia. While our selected psychological and clinical measures were not significantly associated with cold pain tolerance, our data suggest that opioid medication use may impart greater cold pain tolerance in some patients.

Correction: Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005568.].

Quality of Labor Analgesia with Dural Puncture Epidural versus Standard Epidural Technique in Obese Parturients: A Double-blind Randomized Controlled Study.

BACKGROUND: The dural puncture epidural technique may improve analgesia quality by confirming midline placement and increasing intrathecal translocation of epidural medications. This would be advantageous in obese parturients with increased risk of block failure. This study hypothesizes that quality of labor analgesia will be improved with dural puncture epidural compared to standard epidural technique in obese parturients. METHODS: Term parturients with body mass index greater than or equal to 35 kg · m-2, cervical dilation of 2 to 7 cm, and pain score of greater than 4 (where 0 indicates no pain and 10 indicates the worst pain imaginable) were randomized to dural puncture epidural (using 25-gauge Whitacre needle) or standard epidural techniques. Analgesia was initiated with 15 ml of 0.1% ropivacaine with 2 µg · ml-1 fentanyl, followed by programed intermittent boluses (6 ml every 45 min), with patient-controlled epidural analgesia. Parturients were blinded to group allocation. The data were collected by blinded investigators every 3 min for 30 min and then every 2 h until delivery. The primary outcome was a composite of (1) asymmetrical block, (2) epidural top-ups, (3) catheter adjustments, (4) catheter replacement, and (5) failed conversion to regional anesthesia for cesarean delivery. Secondary outcomes included time to a pain score of 1 or less, sensory levels at 30 min, motor block, maximum pain score, patient-controlled epidural analgesia use, epidural medication consumption, duration of second stage of labor, delivery mode, fetal heart tones changes, Apgar scores, maternal adverse events, and satisfaction with analgesia. RESULTS: Of 141 parturients randomized, 66 per group were included in the analysis. There were no statistically or clinically significant differences between the dural puncture epidural and standard epidural groups in the primary composite outcome (34 of 66, 52% vs. 32 of 66, 49%; odds ratio, 1.1 [0.5 to 2.4]; P = 0.766), its individual components, or any of the secondary outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: A lack of differences in quality of labor analgesia between the two techniques in this study does not support routine use of the dural puncture epidural technique in obese parturients.

PHENOMENOLOGICAL FORECASTING OF DISEASE INCIDENCE USING HETEROSKEDASTIC GAUSSIAN PROCESSES: A DENGUE CASE STUDY.

In 2015 the US federal government sponsored a dengue forecasting competition using historical case data from Iquitos, Peru and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Competitors were evaluated on several aspects of out-of-sample forecasts including the targets of peak week, peak incidence during that week, and total season incidence across each of several seasons. our team was one of the winners of that competition, outperforming other teams in multiple targets/locales. In this paper we report on our methodology, a large component of which, surprisingly, ignores the known biology of epidemics at large-for example, relationships between dengue transmission and environmental factors-and instead relies on flexible nonparametric nonlinear Gaussian process (GP) regression fits that "memorize" the trajectories of past seasons, and then "match" the dynamics of the unfolding season to past ones in real-time. Our phenomenological approach has advantages in situations where disease dynamics are less well understood, or where measurements and forecasts of ancillary covariates like precipitation are unavailable, and/or where the strength of association with cases are as yet unknown. In particular, we show that the GP approach generally outperforms a more classical generalized linear (autoregressive) model (GLM) that we developed to utilize abundant covariate information. We illustrate variations of our method(s) on the two benchmark locales alongside a full summary of results submitted by other contest competitors.

Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models.

Recent epidemics of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya have heightened the need to understand the seasonal and geographic range of transmission by Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. We use mechanistic transmission models to derive predictions for how the probability and magnitude of transmission for Zika, chikungunya, and dengue change with mean temperature, and we show that these predictions are well matched by human case data. Across all three viruses, models and human case data both show that transmission occurs between 18-34°C with maximal transmission occurring in a range from 26-29°C. Controlling for population size and two socioeconomic factors, temperature-dependent transmission based on our mechanistic model is an important predictor of human transmission occurrence and incidence. Risk maps indicate that tropical and subtropical regions are suitable for extended seasonal or year-round transmission, but transmission in temperate areas is limited to at most three months per year even if vectors are present. Such brief transmission windows limit the likelihood of major epidemics following disease introduction in temperate zones.