Patent Foramen Ovale Closure in Older Patients With Stroke: Patient Selection for Trial Feasibility.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Whether patent foramen ovale (PFO) closure benefits older patients with PFO and cryptogenic stroke is unknown because randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have predominantly enrolled patients younger than 60 years of age. Our objective was to estimate anticipated effects of PFO closure in older patients to predict the numbers needed to plan an RCT. METHODS: Effectiveness estimates are derived from major observational studies (Risk of Paradoxical Embolism [RoPE] Study and Oxford Vascular Study, together referred to as the "RoPE-Ox" database) and all 6 major RCTs (Systematic, Collaborative, PFO Closure Evaluation [SCOPE] Consortium). To estimate stroke recurrence risk, observed outcomes were calculated for patients older than 60 years in the age-inclusive observational databases (n = 549). To estimate the reduction in the rate of recurrent stroke associated with PFO closure vs medical therapy based on the RoPE score and the presence of high-risk PFO features, a Cox proportional hazards regression model was developed on the RCT data in the SCOPE database (n = 3,740). These estimates were used to calculate sample sizes required for a future RCT. RESULTS: Five-year risk of stroke recurrence using Kaplan-Meier estimates was 13.7 (95% CI 10.5-17.9) overall, 14.9% (95% CI 10.2-21.6) in those with high-risk PFO features. Predicted relative reduction in the event rate with PFO closure was 12.9% overall, 48.8% in those with a high-risk PFO feature. Using these estimates, enrolling all older patients with cryptogenic stroke and PFO would require much larger samples than those used for prior PFO closure trials, but selectively enrolling patients with high-risk PFO features would require totals of 630 patients for 90% power and 471 patients for 80% power, with an average of 5 years of follow-up. DISCUSSION: Based on our projections, anticipated effect sizes in older patients with high-risk features make a trial in these subjects feasible. With lengthening life expectancy in almost all regions of the world, the utility of PFO closure in older adults is increasingly important to explore.

Efficacy and safety of oral factor Xa inhibitors versus vitamin-K antagonists in the early phase after acute ischemic stroke or TIA in the real-world setting: The PRODAST study.

INTRODUCTION: Factor Xa (FXa) inhibitors are superior to vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) in terms of avoiding hemorrhagic complications. However, no robust data are available to date as to whether this also applies to the early phase after stroke. In this prospective registry study, we aimed to investigate whether anticoagulation with FXa inhibitors in the early phase after acute ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) is associated with a lower risk of major bleeding events compared with VKAs. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Prospective Record of the Use of Dabigatran in Patients with Acute Stroke or TIA (PRODAST) study is a prospective, multicenter, observational, post-authorization safety study at 86 German stroke units between July 2015 and November 2020. Primary outcome was a major bleeding event during hospital stay. Secondary endpoints were recurrent strokes, recurrent ischemic strokes, TIA, systemic/pulmonary embolism, myocardial infarction, death and the composite endpoint of stroke, systemic embolism, life-threatening bleeding and death. RESULTS: In total, 10,039 patients have been recruited. 5,874 patients were treated with FXa inhibitors and 1,050 patients received VKAs and were eligible for this analysis. Overall, event rates were low. We observed 49 major bleeding complications during 33,297 treatment days with FXa-inhibitors (rate of 14.7 cases per 10,000 treatment days) and 16 cases during 7,714 treatment days with VKAs (rate of 20.7 events per 10,000 treatment days), translating into an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of 0.70 (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.37-1.32) in favor of FXa inhibitors. Hazards for ischemic endpoints (63 vs 17 strokes, aHR: 0.96 (95% CI: 0.53-1.74), mortality (33 vs 6 deaths, aHR: 0.87 (95% CI: 0.33-2.34)) and the combined endpoint (154 vs 39 events, aHR: 0.99 (95% CI: 0.65-1.41) were not substantially different. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: This large real-world study shows that FXa inhibitors appear to be similarly effective in terms of bleeding events and ischemic endpoints compared to VKAs in the early post-stroke phase of hospitalization. However, the results need to be interpreted with caution due to the low precision of the estimates.

Tobacco use and risk of acute stroke in 32 countries in the INTERSTROKE study: a case­control study

BACKGROUND Smoking is a major risk factor for the global burden of stroke. We have previously reported a global population attributable risk (PAR) of stroke of 12.4% associated with current smoking. In this study we aimed to explore the association of current tobacco use with different types of tobacco exposure and environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure on the risk of stroke and stroke subtypes, and by regions and country income levels. METHODS The INTERSTROKE study is a case­control study of acute first stroke and was undertaken with 13,462 stroke cases and 13,488 controls recruited between January 11, 2007 and August 8, 2015 in 32 countries worldwide. Association of risk of tobacco use and ETS exposure were analysed with overall stroke, ischemic and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and with TOAST etiological stroke subtypes (large vessel, small vessel, cardioembolism, and undetermined). FINDINGS Current smoking was associated with an increased risk of all stroke (odds ratio [OR] 1.64, 95% CI 1.46­1.84), and had a stronger association with ischemic stroke (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.61­2.11) than ICH (OR 1.19 95% CI 1.00­1.41). The OR and PAR of stroke among current smokers varied significantly between regions and income levels with high income countries (HIC) having the highest odds (OR 3.02 95% CI 2.24­4.10) and PAR (18.6%, 15.1­22.8%). Among etiological subtypes of ischemic stroke, the strongest association of current smoking was seen for large vessel stroke (OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.63­2.87) and undetermined cause (OR 1.97, 95% CI 1.55­2.50). Both filtered (OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.50­1.99) and non-filtered (OR 2.59, 95% CI 1.79­3.77) cigarettes were associated with stroke risk. ETS exposure increased the risk of stroke in a dose-dependent manner, exposure for more than 10 h per week increased risk for all stroke (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.69­2.27), ischemic stroke (OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.59­2.24) and ICH (OR 2.00, 95% CI 1.60­2.50). INTERPRETATION There are significant variations in the magnitude of risk and PAR of stroke according to the types of tobacco used, active and ETS exposure, and countries with different income levels. Specific strategies to discourage tobacco use by any form and to build a smoke free environment should be implemented to ease the global burden of stroke. FUNDING The Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada, Canadian Stroke Network, Swedish Research Council, Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation, The Health & Medical Care Committee of the Regional Executive Board, Region Västra Götaland, and through unrestricted grants from several pharmaceutical companies with major contributions from Astra Zeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim (Canada), Pfizer (Canada), MERCK, Sharp and Dohme, Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation, UK Chest, and UK Heart and Stroke.

Tobacco use and risk of acute stroke in 32 countries in the INTERSTROKE study: a case-control study.

Background: Smoking is a major risk factor for the global burden of stroke. We have previously reported a global population attributable risk (PAR) of stroke of 12.4% associated with current smoking. In this study we aimed to explore the association of current tobacco use with different types of tobacco exposure and environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure on the risk of stroke and stroke subtypes, and by regions and country income levels. Methods: The INTERSTROKE study is a case-control study of acute first stroke and was undertaken with 13,462 stroke cases and 13,488 controls recruited between January 11, 2007 and August 8, 2015 in 32 countries worldwide. Association of risk of tobacco use and ETS exposure were analysed with overall stroke, ischemic and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and with TOAST etiological stroke subtypes (large vessel, small vessel, cardioembolism, and undetermined). Findings: Current smoking was associated with an increased risk of all stroke (odds ratio [OR] 1.64, 95% CI 1.46-1.84), and had a stronger association with ischemic stroke (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.61-2.11) than ICH (OR 1.19 95% CI 1.00-1.41). The OR and PAR of stroke among current smokers varied significantly between regions and income levels with high income countries (HIC) having the highest odds (OR 3.02 95% CI 2.24-4.10) and PAR (18.6%, 15.1-22.8%). Among etiological subtypes of ischemic stroke, the strongest association of current smoking was seen for large vessel stroke (OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.63-2.87) and undetermined cause (OR 1.97, 95% CI 1.55-2.50). Both filtered (OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.50-1.99) and non-filtered (OR 2.59, 95% CI 1.79-3.77) cigarettes were associated with stroke risk. ETS exposure increased the risk of stroke in a dose-dependent manner, exposure for more than 10 h per week increased risk for all stroke (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.69-2.27), ischemic stroke (OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.59-2.24) and ICH (OR 2.00, 95% CI 1.60-2.50). Interpretation: There are significant variations in the magnitude of risk and PAR of stroke according to the types of tobacco used, active and ETS exposure, and countries with different income levels. Specific strategies to discourage tobacco use by any form and to build a smoke free environment should be implemented to ease the global burden of stroke. Funding: The Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada, Canadian Stroke Network, Swedish Research Council, Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation, The Health & Medical Care Committee of the Regional Executive Board, Region Västra Götaland, and through unrestricted grants from several pharmaceutical companies with major contributions from Astra Zeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim (Canada), Pfizer (Canada), MERCK, Sharp and Dohme, Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation, UK Chest, and UK Heart and Stroke.

Guidelines for Neuroprognostication in Critically Ill Adults with Moderate-Severe Traumatic Brain Injury.

BACKGROUND: Moderate-severe traumatic brain injury (msTBI) carries high morbidity and mortality worldwide. Accurate neuroprognostication is essential in guiding clinical decisions, including patient triage and transition to comfort measures. Here we provide recommendations regarding the reliability of major clinical predictors and prediction models commonly used in msTBI neuroprognostication, guiding clinicians in counseling surrogate decision-makers. METHODS: Using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology, we conducted a systematic narrative review of the most clinically relevant predictors and prediction models cited in the literature. The review involved framing specific population/intervention/comparator/outcome/timing/setting (PICOTS) questions and employing stringent full-text screening criteria to examine the literature, focusing on four GRADE criteria: quality of evidence, desirability of outcomes, values and preferences, and resource use. Moreover, good practice recommendations addressing the key principles of neuroprognostication were drafted. RESULTS: After screening 8125 articles, 41 met our eligibility criteria. Ten clinical variables and nine grading scales were selected. Many articles varied in defining "poor" functional outcomes. For consistency, we treated "poor" as "unfavorable". Although many clinical variables are associated with poor outcome in msTBI, only the presence of bilateral pupillary nonreactivity on admission, conditional on accurate assessment without confounding from medications or injuries, was deemed moderately reliable for counseling surrogates regarding 6-month functional outcomes or in-hospital mortality. In terms of prediction models, the Corticosteroid Randomization After Significant Head Injury (CRASH)-basic, CRASH-CT (CRASH-basic extended by computed tomography features), International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in TBI (IMPACT)-core, IMPACT-extended, and IMPACT-lab models were recommended as moderately reliable in predicting 14-day to 6-month mortality and functional outcomes at 6 months and beyond. When using "moderately reliable" predictors or prediction models, the clinician must acknowledge "substantial" uncertainty in the prognosis. CONCLUSIONS: These guidelines provide recommendations to clinicians on the formal reliability of individual predictors and prediction models of poor outcome when counseling surrogates of patients with msTBI and suggest broad principles of neuroprognostication.

Guidelines for neuroprognostication in adults with traumatic spinal cord injury.

BACKGROUND: Traumatic spinal cord injury (tSCI) impacts patients and their families acutely and often for the long term. The ability of clinicians to share prognostic information about mortality and functional outcomes allows patients and their surrogates to engage in decision-making and plan for the future. These guidelines provide recommendations on the reliability of acute-phase clinical predictors to inform neuroprognostication and guide clinicians in counseling adult patients with tSCI or their surrogates. METHODS: A narrative systematic review was completed using Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation methodology. Candidate predictors, including clinical variables and prediction models, were selected based on clinical relevance and presence of an appropriate body of evidence. The Population/Intervention/Comparator/Outcome/Timing/Setting question was framed as "When counseling patients or surrogates of critically ill patients with traumatic spinal cord injury, should < predictor, with time of assessment if appropriate > be considered a reliable predictor of < outcome, with time frame of assessment >?" Additional full-text screening criteria were used to exclude small and lower quality studies. Following construction of an evidence profile and summary of findings, recommendations were based on four Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation criteria: quality of evidence, balance of desirable and undesirable consequences, values and preferences, and resource use. Good practice recommendations addressed essential principles of neuroprognostication that could not be framed in the Population/Intervention/Comparator/Outcome/Timing/Setting format. Throughout the guideline development process, an individual living with tSCI provided perspective on patient-centered priorities. RESULTS: Six candidate clinical variables and one prediction model were selected. Out of 11,132 articles screened, 369 met inclusion criteria for full-text review and 35 articles met eligibility criteria to guide recommendations. We recommend pathologic findings on magnetic resonance imaging, neurological level of injury, and severity of injury as moderately reliable predictors of American Spinal Cord Injury Impairment Scale improvement and the Dutch Clinical Prediction Rule as a moderately reliable prediction model of independent ambulation at 1 year after injury. No other reliable or moderately reliable predictors of mortality or functional outcome were identified. Good practice recommendations include considering the complete clinical condition as opposed to a single variable and communicating the challenges of likely functional deficits as well as potential for improvement and for long-term quality of life with SCI-related deficits to patients and surrogates. CONCLUSIONS: These guidelines provide recommendations about the reliability of acute-phase predictors of mortality, functional outcome, American Spinal Injury Association Impairment Scale grade conversion, and recovery of independent ambulation for consideration when counseling patients with tSCI or their surrogates and suggest broad principles of neuroprognostication in this context.

Guidelines for Neuroprognostication in Critically Ill Adults with Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this document is to provide recommendations on the formal reliability of major clinical predictors often associated with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) neuroprognostication. METHODS: A narrative systematic review was completed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation methodology and the Population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome, Timing, Setting questions. Predictors, which included both individual clinical variables and prediction models, were selected based on clinical relevance and attention in the literature. Following construction of the evidence profile and summary of findings, recommendations were based on Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation criteria. Good practice statements addressed essential principles of neuroprognostication that could not be framed in the Population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome, Timing, Setting format. RESULTS: Six candidate clinical variables and two clinical grading scales (the original ICH score and maximally treated ICH score) were selected for recommendation creation. A total of 347 articles out of 10,751 articles screened met our eligibility criteria. Consensus statements of good practice included deferring neuroprognostication-aside from the most clinically devastated patients-for at least the first 48-72 h of intensive care unit admission; understanding what outcomes would have been most valued by the patient; and counseling of patients and surrogates whose ultimate neurological recovery may occur over a variable period of time. Although many clinical variables and grading scales are associated with ICH poor outcome, no clinical variable alone or sole clinical grading scale was suggested by the panel as currently being reliable by itself for use in counseling patients with ICH and their surrogates, regarding functional outcome at 3 months and beyond or 30-day mortality. CONCLUSIONS: These guidelines provide recommendations on the formal reliability of predictors of poor outcome in the context of counseling patients with ICH and surrogates and suggest broad principles of neuroprognostication. Clinicians formulating their judgments of prognosis for patients with ICH should avoid anchoring bias based solely on any one clinical variable or published clinical grading scale.

Calibrating machine learning approaches for probability estimation: A comprehensive comparison.

Statistical prediction models have gained popularity in applied research. One challenge is the transfer of the prediction model to a different population which may be structurally different from the model for which it has been developed. An adaptation to the new population can be achieved by calibrating the model to the characteristics of the target population, for which numerous calibration techniques exist. In view of this diversity, we performed a systematic evaluation of various popular calibration approaches used by the statistical and the machine learning communities for estimating two-class probabilities. In this work, we first provide a review of the literature and, second, present the results of a comprehensive simulation study. The calibration approaches are compared with respect to their empirical properties and relationships, their ability to generalize precise probability estimates to external populations and their availability in terms of easy-to-use software implementations. Third, we provide code from real data analysis allowing its application by researchers. Logistic calibration and beta calibration, which estimate an intercept plus one and two slope parameters, respectively, consistently showed the best results in the simulation studies. Calibration on logit transformed probability estimates generally outperformed calibration methods on nontransformed estimates. In case of structural differences between training and validation data, re-estimation of the entire prediction model should be outweighted against sample size of the validation data. We recommend regression-based calibration approaches using transformed probability estimates, where at least one slope is estimated in addition to an intercept for updating probability estimates in validation studies.

Outcome after intracranial hemorrhage under dabigatran and reversal with idarucizumab versus under vitamin-K-antagonists - the RIC-ICH study.

Background: Intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) is a rare but serious side effect associated with the use of oral anticoagulants, such as dabigatran. The specific reversal agent for dabigatran, idarucizumab, is available for the management of individuals with ICH. The aim of this study was to provide real-world evidence on patients with ICH and effective treatment with dabigatran and reversal with idarucizumab in clinical routine compared to those under effective treatment with vitamin-K-antagonist (VKA). Methods: Registration of Idarucizumab for Patients with IntraCranial Hemorrhage (RIC-ICH) is a non-interventional study conducted in 22 German stroke units that prospectively enrolled dabigatran patients treated with idarucizumab. Retrospective data from VKA patients served as reference population. Main objective was in-hospital mortality. Further objectives included change in bleeding volume, stroke severity, and functional status. Result: In-hospital mortality was 26.7% in 15 dabigatran and 27.3% in 88 VKA patients (hazard ratio 1.00, 95% CI 0.29-2.60). In patients with bleeding volume > 60 ml, mortality was lower in the dabigatran group (N = 6, 33%) compared to the VKA group (N = 15, 67%; HR 0.24, 95% CI 0.04-0.96). No differences were observed in secondary endpoints between dabigatran and VKA patients. Conclusion: These results, based on data from routine clinical practice, suggest that in-hospital mortality after idarucizumab treatment is comparable to that in patients pretreated with VKA. Due to the low precision of estimates, the results must be interpreted with caution.

Early or late initiation of dabigatran versus vitamin-K-antagonists in acute ischemic stroke or TIA: The PRODAST study.

BACKGROUND: The optimal timing of initiating or resuming anticoagulation after acute ischemic stroke (AIS) or transient ischemic attack (TIA) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) is debated. Dabigatran, a non-vitamin K oral anticoagulant (NOAC), has shown superiority against vitamin K antagonists (VKA) regarding hemorrhagic complications. AIMS: In this registry study, we investigated the initiation of dabigatran in the early phase after AIS or TIA. METHODS: PRODAST (Prospective Record of the Use of Dabigatran in Patients with Acute Stroke or TIA) is a prospective, multicenter, observational, post-authorization safety study. We recruited 10,039 patients at 86 German stroke units between July 2015 and November 2020. A total of 3,312 patients were treated with dabigatran or VKA and were eligible for the analysis that investigates risks for major hemorrhagic events within 3 months after early (⩽ 7 days) or late (> 7 days) initiation of dabigatran or VKA initiated at any time. Further endpoints were recurrent stroke, ischemic stroke, TIA, systemic embolism, myocardial infarction, death, and a composite endpoint of stroke, systemic embolism, life-threatening bleeding and death. RESULTS: Major bleeding event rates per 10,000 treatment days ranged from 1.9 for late administered dabigatran to 4.9 for VKA. Early or late initiation of dabigatran was associated with a lower hazard for major hemorrhages as compared to VKA use. The difference was pronounced for intracranial hemorrhages with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 0.47 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.10-2.21) for early dabigatran use versus VKA use and an adjusted HR of 0.09 (95% CI: 0.00-13.11) for late dabigatran use versus VKA use. No differences were found between early initiation of dabigatran versus VKA use regarding ischemic endpoints. CONCLUSIONS: The early application of dabigatran appears to be safer than VKA administered at any time point with regards to the risk of hemorrhagic complications and in particular for intracranial hemorrhage. This result, however, must be interpreted with caution in view of the low precision of the estimate.

Association of long-term air pollution and ambient noise with cognitive decline in the Heinz Nixdorf Recall study.

Little is known about the impact of long-term ambient air pollution (AP) and noise exposure on change in cognitive function over years in the elderly. In this study, we wanted to examine the association between long-term exposure to AP and noise with the rate of cognitive decline in a population aged 50 and older and susceptible groups with mild cognitive impairment or at a genetically higher risk of Alzheimer's disease (Apolipoprotein E ε4 positive). Participants in the German population-based Heinz Nixdorf Recall study carried out five neuropsychological tests. Individual tests scores at the first (T1 = 2006-2008) and second (T2 = 2011-2015) follow-up for each test were used as outcomes after standardization using predicted means adjusted for age and education. Global cognitive score (GCS) was defined as sum of five standardized scores of individual tests. Long-term exposures to particulate matter (PM2.5, PM10, PM2.5 absorbance), accumulation mode particle number (PNacc), a proxy of ultrafine particles, and nitrogen dioxide were estimated by the land-use regression and chemistry transport models. Noise exposures were assessed as outdoor weighted nighttime road traffic noise (Lnight) means. We performed linear regression analyses adjusted for sex, age, individual and neighborhood socio-economic status, and lifestyle variables. Effect modification in vulnerable groups was estimated using multiplicative interaction terms between exposure and a modifier. Overall, 2554 participants (49.5% men, median age is 63 (IQR = 12)) were included. We found weak associations between higher exposure to PM10 and PM2.5 with faster decline in the immediate verbal memory test. Adjustment for potential confounders and for co-exposures did not change the results. We saw no effects on GCS, and no effect of noise exposure. In susceptible groups, higher AP and noise exposure were tended to be associated with faster decline in GCS. Our results suggest that AP exposure may accelerate cognitive decline in older ages, particularly in susceptible groups.

Guidelines for Neuroprognostication in Adults with Guillain-Barré Syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) often carries a favorable prognosis. Of adult patients with GBS, 10-30% require mechanical ventilation during the acute phase of the disease. After the acute phase, the focus shifts to restoration of motor strength, ambulation, and neurological function, with variable speed and degree of recovery. The objective of these guidelines is to provide recommendations on the reliability of select clinical predictors that serve as the basis of neuroprognostication and provide guidance to clinicians counseling adult patients with GBS and/or their surrogates. METHODS: A narrative systematic review was completed using Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology. Candidate predictors, including clinical variables and prediction models, were selected based on clinical relevance and presence of appropriate body of evidence. The Population/Intervention/Comparator/Outcome/Time frame/Setting (PICOTS) question was framed as follows: "When counseling patients or surrogates of critically ill patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome, should [predictor, with time of assessment if appropriate] be considered a reliable predictor of [outcome, with time frame of assessment]?" Additional full-text screening criteria were used to exclude small and lower quality studies. Following construction of an evidence profile and summary of findings, recommendations were based on four GRADE criteria: quality of evidence, balance of desirable and undesirable consequences, values and preferences, and resource use. In addition, good practice recommendations addressed essential principles of neuroprognostication that could not be framed in PICOTS format. RESULTS: Eight candidate clinical variables and six prediction models were selected. A total of 45 articles met our eligibility criteria to guide recommendations. We recommend bulbar weakness (the degree of motor weakness at disease nadir) and the Erasmus GBS Respiratory Insufficiency Score as moderately reliable for prediction of the need for mechanical ventilation. The Erasmus GBS Outcome Score (EGOS) and modified EGOS were identified as moderately reliable predictors of independent ambulation at 3 months and beyond. Good practice recommendations include consideration of both acute and recovery phases of the disease during prognostication, discussion of the possible need for mechanical ventilation and enteral nutrition during counseling, and consideration of the complete clinical condition as opposed to a single variable during prognostication. CONCLUSIONS: These guidelines provide recommendations on the reliability of predictors of the need for mechanical ventilation, poor functional outcome, and independent ambulation following GBS in the context of counseling patients and/or surrogates and suggest broad principles of neuroprognostication. Few predictors were considered moderately reliable based on the available body of evidence, and higher quality data are needed.

[Intracerebral Hemorrhage]. / Intrazerebrale Blutungen.

Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICB) causes approximately 12% of all strokes in Germany and 9-27% of all strokes worldwide 1 2. Epidemiological studies show a decrease in younger individuals mainly due to better antihypertensive management, but there is also an increase in incidence in older individuals due to cerebral amyloid angiopathy and increasing use of anticoagulants 3.

Guidelines for Neuroprognostication in Comatose Adult Survivors of Cardiac Arrest.

BACKGROUND: Among cardiac arrest survivors, about half remain comatose 72 h following return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC). Prognostication of poor neurological outcome in this population may result in withdrawal of life-sustaining therapy and death. The objective of this article is to provide recommendations on the reliability of select clinical predictors that serve as the basis of neuroprognostication and provide guidance to clinicians counseling surrogates of comatose cardiac arrest survivors. METHODS: A narrative systematic review was completed using Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology. Candidate predictors, which included clinical variables and prediction models, were selected based on clinical relevance and the presence of an appropriate body of evidence. The Population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome, Timing, Setting (PICOTS) question was framed as follows: "When counseling surrogates of comatose adult survivors of cardiac arrest, should [predictor, with time of assessment if appropriate] be considered a reliable predictor of poor functional outcome assessed at 3 months or later?" Additional full-text screening criteria were used to exclude small and lower-quality studies. Following construction of the evidence profile and summary of findings, recommendations were based on four GRADE criteria: quality of evidence, balance of desirable and undesirable consequences, values and preferences, and resource use. In addition, good practice recommendations addressed essential principles of neuroprognostication that could not be framed in PICOTS format. RESULTS: Eleven candidate clinical variables and three prediction models were selected based on clinical relevance and the presence of an appropriate body of literature. A total of 72 articles met our eligibility criteria to guide recommendations. Good practice recommendations include waiting 72 h following ROSC/rewarming prior to neuroprognostication, avoiding sedation or other confounders, the use of multimodal assessment, and an extended period of observation for awakening in patients with an indeterminate prognosis, if consistent with goals of care. The bilateral absence of pupillary light response > 72 h from ROSC and the bilateral absence of N20 response on somatosensory evoked potential testing were identified as reliable predictors. Computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging of the brain > 48 h from ROSC and electroencephalography > 72 h from ROSC were identified as moderately reliable predictors. CONCLUSIONS: These guidelines provide recommendations on the reliability of predictors of poor outcome in the context of counseling surrogates of comatose survivors of cardiac arrest and suggest broad principles of neuroprognostication. Few predictors were considered reliable or moderately reliable based on the available body of evidence.

Risk factors of unexplained early neurological deterioration after treatment for ischemic stroke due to large vessel occlusion: a post hoc analysis of the HERMES study.

BACKGROUND: Early neurological deterioration (END) after endovascular treatment (EVT) in patients with anterior circulation acute ischemic stroke (AIS) is associated with poor outcome. END may remain unexplained by parenchymal hemorrhage (UnEND). We aim to analyze the risk factors of UnEND in the medical management (MM) and EVT arms of the HERMES study. METHODS: We conducted a post-hoc analysis of anterior AIS patients who underwent EVT for proximal anterior occlusions. Risk factors of UnEND, defined as a worsening of ≥4 points between baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) and NIHSS at 24 hours without hemorrhage, were compared between both arms using mixed logistic regression models adjusted for baseline characteristics. An interaction analysis between the EVT and MM arms for risk factors of UnEND was conducted. RESULTS: Among 1723 patients assessable for UnEND, 160 patients experienced an UnEND (9.3%), including 9.1% (78/854) in the EVT arm and 9.4% (82/869) in the MM arm. There was no significant difference in the incidence of UnEND between the two study arms. In the EVT population, independent risk factors of UnEND were lower baseline NIHSS, higher baseline glucose, and lower collateral grade. In the MM population, the only independent predictor of UnEND was higher baseline glucose. However, we did not demonstrate an interaction between EVT and MM for baseline factors as risk factors of UnEND. UnEND was, similarly in both treatment groups, a significant predictor of unfavorable outcome in both the EVT (p<0.001) and MM (p<0.001) arms. CONCLUSIONS: UnEND is not an uncommon event, with a similar rate which ever treatment arm is considered. In the clinical scenario of AIS due to large vessel occlusion, no patient-related factor seems to increase the risk for UnEND when treated by EVT compared with MM.

Fluctuation of depressive symptoms in cognitively unimpaired participants and the risk of mild cognitive impairment 5 years later: Results of the Heinz Nixdorf Recall study.

Background: Depression might be an independent risk factor for cognitive decline, a prodromal dementia symptom or a reaction to cognitive/functional impairment. Objective: To investigate the association between (1) depressive symptoms and (2) depressive symptom patterns over 13 years with incident mild cognitive impairment (MCI) 5 years later. Materials and methods: We included 724/823 cognitively unimpaired men/women who participated in the population-based Heinz Nixdorf Recall study (t1: 2005-2008, ø62.9 years; t2: 2010-2015, ø68.1 years). Depressive symptoms were assessed in the study center and during six postal follow-ups using the short form of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D). Relative risks (RR; 95% confidence intervals) for MCI at t2 (men/women: 71/76) were estimated for CES-D at t1 (linear and dichotomized at ≥17, cut-off for clinically relevant depressive symptoms) and CES-D fluctuations over 13 years (stable low, large fluctuations, stable high/stable around cut-off) using log-linear regression models with Poisson working likelihood adjusted for age, sex, education, diabetes mellitus, coronary heart disease, and stroke. Results: Fully adjusted risk for MCI at t2 (per CES-D point increase at t1) was elevated for the total cohort (1.053, 1.031-1.076), men (1.046, 1.012-1.081), and women (1.059, 1.029-1.090). Applying the dichotomized CES-D, risk for MCI was substantially increased for the total cohort [2.22 (1.38-3.58)] and in women [2.59 (1.46-4.58)]. Large CES-D fluctuations and stable high/stable around cut-off were associated with increased RR for MCI in the total cohort and in women compared to stable low symptoms. Conclusion: Depressive symptoms predicted MCI in cognitively unimpaired participants of our population-based study. Adequate treatment of depression may therefore contribute to the maintenance of normal cognition and delay dementia onset.

Five-Year Results of Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting With or Without Carotid Endarterectomy in Patients With Asymptomatic Carotid Artery Stenosis: CABACS RCT.

BACKGROUND: In patients with coronary artery disease and concomitant asymptomatic severe carotid stenosis, combined simultaneous coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and carotid endarterectomy (CEA) has been widely performed despite lack of evidence from randomized trials. We recently showed that the risk of stroke or death within 30 days was higher following CABG+CEA compared with CABG alone. Here, we report long-term outcomes following CABG with versus without CEA. METHODS: The CABACS (Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery in Patients With Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis Study) is a randomized, controlled, multicenter, open trial. Patients with asymptomatic severe (≥70%) carotid stenosis undergoing CABG were allocated either CABG+CEA or CABG alone, and follow-up was 5 years. Major secondary end points included nonfatal stroke or death, any death and any nonfatal stroke. Due to low recruitment, the study was stopped prematurely after randomization of 127 patients in 17 centers. RESULTS: By 5 years, the rate of stroke or death did not significantly differ between groups (CABG+CEA 40.6% [95% CI, 0.285-0.536], CABG alone 35.0% [95% CI, 0.231-0.484]; P=0.58). Higher albeit statistically nonsignificant rates of nonfatal strokes occurred at any time following CABG+CEA versus CABG alone (1 year: 19.3% versus 7.1%, P=0.09; 5 years: 29.4% versus 18.8%, P=0.25). All-cause mortality up to 5 years was similar in both groups (CABG+CEA: 25.4% versus CABG alone: 23.3%, hazard ratio, 1.148 [95% CI, 0.560-2.353]; P=0.71). Subgroup analyses did not reveal any significant effect of age, sex, preoperative modified Rankin Scale and center on outcome events. CONCLUSIONS: During 5-years follow-up, combined simultaneous CABG+CEA was associated with a higher albeit statistically nonsignificant rate of stroke or death compared with CABG alone. This was mainly due to a nonsignificantly higher perioperative risk following CABG+CEA. Since the power of our study was not sufficient, no significant effect of either procedure could be observed at any time during follow-up. REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.controlled-trials.com; Unique identifier: ISRCTN13486906.

Validity of the Early Functional Ability scale (EFA) among critically ill patients undergoing early neurological rehabilitation.

BACKGROUND: A reliable assessment of the functional abilities of patients after severe brain damage is crucial for valid prognostication and treatment decisions, but most clinical scales are of limited use among this specific group of patients. AIM: The present study investigates the usefulness of the Early Functional Ability (EFA) scale, which determines the functional abilities of severely impaired patients. METHODS: Critically ill patients consecutively admitted to early neurological rehabilitation were screened for eligibility. We assessed the correlation between the EFA scale and (i) the Early Rehabilitation Barthel Index (ERBI), and (ii) the Coma Recovery Scale-Revised (CRS-R). The 1-year outcome on the Glasgow Outcome Scale-extended (GOSE) was used to examine the predictive validity. Demographical and medical variables were entered into univariate and multivariate binary regression models to identify independent predictors of 1-year outcome. RESULTS: Two hundred fifty-seven patients (168 men) with a median age of 62 years (IQR = 51-75) were enrolled. The correlation of the EFA scale with the CRS-R was high but low with the ERBI upon admission. Multivariate regression analysis yielded the vegetative subscale of the EFA scale as the only independent predictor for the 1-year outcome of patients admitted to early neurological rehabilitation. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows a high correlation of the EFA scale with the CRS-R but a weak correlation with the ERBI in patients with low functional abilities. With improving patient abilities, these correlations were partly reversed. Thus, the EFA scale is a useful tool to assess the functional abilities and the prognosis of critically ill patients adequately and may be more feasible than other scales.