Improving the representation of stream water sources in surrogate nutrient models with water isotope data.

An important part of meeting nutrient reduction goals in the lower Great Lakes basin and assessing the success of different land management strategies is modeling nutrient losses from agricultural land. This study aimed to improve the representation of water source contributions to streamflow in generalized additive models for predicting nutrient fluxes from three headwater agricultural streams in southern Ontario monitored during the Multi-Watershed Nutrient Study (MWNS). The previous development of these models represented baseflow contributions to streamflow using the baseflow proportion derived using an uncalibrated recursive digital filter. Recursive digital filters are commonly used to partition stream discharge into separate components from slower and faster pathways. In this study, we calibrated the recursive digital filter using stream water source information from stable isotopes of oxygen in water. Across sites, optimization of the filter parameters reduced bias in baseflow estimates by as much as 68 %. In most cases, calibrating the filter also improved agreement between filter-derived baseflow and baseflow calculated from isotope and streamflow data: the average Kling-Gupta Efficiencies using default and calibrated parameters were 0.44 and 0.82, respectively. When incorporated into the generalized additive models, the revised baseflow proportion predictor was more often statistically significant, improved model parsimony, and reduced prediction uncertainty. Moreover, this information allowed for a more rigorous interpretation of how different stream water sources influence nutrient losses from the agricultural MWNS watersheds.

Total and dissolved phosphorus losses from agricultural headwater streams during extreme runoff events.

Eutrophication continues to be a concerning global water quality issue. Managing and mitigating harmful algal blooms demands clear information on the conditions promoting large phosphorus losses from contributing watersheds. Of particular concern is the amount and form of phosphorus loading to receiving water bodies during extreme runoff events, which are expected to increase in frequency due to climate change. Five years (2015 to 2020) of water quantity and quality data from 11 agricultural watersheds in the lower Great Lakes basin were analyzed and used to model total and dissolved phosphorus losses. This study aimed to assess temporal dynamics in phosphorus concentrations and losses over runoff events covering a wide range of hydrologic conditions and to quantify their relative importance on annual phosphorus losses. Event concentration-discharge relationships for total and dissolved phosphorus were hysteretic and had contrasting dominant patterns across watersheds. The proportion of annual phosphorus losses during events was highly variable between watersheds, accounting for 47-94 %. Extreme events were particularly impactful: as few as three events per year were found to be responsible for nearly half of total phosphorus (20-50 %) and total dissolved phosphorus (14-44 %) losses. Variability in total and dissolved phosphorus losses and concentrations over a wide range of flow conditions suggests that event magnitude is an important control on the relative mobility of particulate and dissolved phosphorus fractions. This study showed that insights into nutrient dynamics and phosphorus budgets in the lower Great Lakes basin and agriculture dominated environments more broadly can be gained by assessing event nutrient losses with respect to flow conditions and patterns in concentration-discharge relationships.

Novel predictors related to hysteresis and baseflow improve predictions of watershed nutrient loads: An example from Ontario's lower Great Lakes basin.

Eutrophication has re-emerged in the lower Great Lakes basin resulting in critical water quality issues. Models that accurately predict nutrient loading from streams are needed to inform appropriate nutrient management decisions. Generalized additive models (GAMs) that use surrogate data from sensors to predict nutrient loads offer an alternative to commonly applied linear regression and may better handle relationship non-linearities and skewed water quality data. Five years (2015-2020) of water quantity and quality data from 11 agricultural watersheds in southern Ontario were used to develop GAMs to predict total phosphorus (TP) and nitrate (NO3-) loads. This study aimed to 1) use GAMs to predict nutrient loads using both common and novel predictors and 2) quantify and examine the variability in seasonal and annual nutrient loads. Along with routine surrogate model predictors (i.e., flow, turbidity, and seasonality), the addition of the baseflow proportion and the hydrograph position of flow observations improved model performance. Conversely, including the antecedent precipitation index minimally affected model performance, regardless of constituent. Seasonal and annual patterns in TP and NO3- load predictions mirrored that of the hydrologic regime. This study showed that parsimonious GAMs featuring novel model predictors can be used to predict nutrient loads while accounting for the partitioning of surface and subsurface flow paths and hysteresis between streamflow and water quality parameters that are frequently observed in a wide range of environments.

Water and sediment as sources of phosphate in aquatic ecosystems: The Detroit River and its role in the Laurentian Great Lakes.

Eutrophication of freshwater ecosystems and harmful algal blooms (HABs) are an ongoing concern affecting water quality in the Great Lakes watershed of North America. Despite binational management efforts, Lake Erie has been at the center of dissolved reactive phosphate driven eutrophication research due to its repeated cycles of algae blooms. We investigated the Detroit River, the largest source of water entering Lake Erie, with the objectives to (1) characterize Detroit River phosphate levels within water and sediment, and (2) use multiple chemical and isotopic tracers to identify nutrient sources in the Detroit River. Riverine water and sediment samples were collected at 23 locations across 8 transects of the Detroit River. The bulk δ15N values from sediments were enriched compared the δ15N values of nitrate from water samples, consistent with biogeochemical cycling in the sediment. Principle component analysis of multiple chemical tracers from water samples found spatial variation consistent with multiple sources including synthetic and manure-derived fertilizers and wastewater effluent. The concentrations of phosphate dissolved in water were within regulatory guidelines; however, sediments had elevated concentrations of both water- and acid-extractable phosphate. Sediment-sequestered legacy phosphorus historically deposited in the Detroit River may be transported into Lake Erie and, if mobilized into the water column, be an unrecognized internal-load that contributes to algal bloom events. Globally, freshwater ecosystems are impacted by numerous non-point source phosphorus inputs contributing to eutrophication and the use of multiple tracer approaches will increase our ability to effectively manage aquatic ecosystems.

Modeling phosphorus losses from soils amended with cattle manures and chemical fertilizers.

While applied manure/fertilizer is an important source of P loss in surface runoff, few models simulate the direct transfer of phosphorus (P) from soil-surface-applied manure/fertilizer to surface runoff. The SurPhos model was tested with 2008-2010 growing season daily surface runoff data from clay loam experimental plots subject to different manure/fertilizer applications. Model performance was evaluated on the basis of the coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), percent bias (PBIAS), and the ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of observed values (RSR). The model offered an acceptable performance in simulating soil labile P dynamics (R2 = 0.75, NSE = 0.55, PBIAS = 10.43%, and RSR = 0.67) and dissolved reactive P (DRP) loss in surface runoff (R2 ≥ 0.74 and NSE ≥ 0.69) for both solid and liquid cattle manure, as well as inorganic fertilizer. Simulated direct P loss in surface runoff from solid and liquid cattle manure accounted for 39% and 40% of total growing season DRP losses in surface runoff. To compensate for the unavailability of daily surface runoff observations under snow melt condition, the whole four years' (2008-2011) daily surface runoff predicted by EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) was used as SurPhos input. The accuracy of simulated DRP loss in surface runoff under the different manure/fertilizer treatments was acceptable (R2 ≥ 0.55 and NSE ≥ 0.50). For the solid cattle manure treatment, of all annual DRP losses, 19% were derived directly from the manure. Beyond offering a reliable prediction of manure/fertilizer P loss in surface runoff, SurPhos quantified different sources of DRP loss and dynamic labile P in soil, allowing a better critical assessment of different P management measures' effectiveness in mitigating DRP losses.

Effects of older siblings on the language young children hear and produce.

Mothers told stories to their children, inserting 30 questions about each story under two conditions. In one situation, mothers were alone with their younger child, and in the other condition, an older sibling was also present. During the question-answer interactions, older siblings responded to 60%-65% of all mothers' questions before younger children had a chance to respond and provided direct answers to the questions in 57%-65% of those instances. Mothers responded by producing fewer rephrased questions, fewer questions providing hints and answers, fewer questions functioning as repetitions and expansions, and more directly repeated questions when the older sibling was present. The effect of older siblings' first responses also reduced by half the number of younger children's utterances. The younger children produced fewer noncontent and content answers and more imitated answers in the presence of the older sibling. It is concluded that the presence of older siblings may influence the language young children hear and produce.

Perception of the fundamental frequencies of children's voices by trained and untrained listeners.

This study was designed to determine if trained voice clinicians were better than untrained listeners in judging differences in the fundamental frequencies of children's voices. We also attempted to determine the degree of difference in fundamental frequency necessary for accurate judgments. Finally, ability to perceive pitch differences in speaking voices was correlated with ability to judge puretone stimuli. Results indicated that trained clinicians were no better at judging average fundamental frequency than were untrained listeners. Both groups performed at chance level until differences in vocal fundamental frequency exceeded 20 Hz. Finally, there was no correlation between subjects' success on standardized puretone pitch tests and ability to judge average pitch in the speaking voice.

The effects of different masking noises on children with /s/ or /r/ errors.

Children with /s/ or /r/ misarticulations were administered an articulation test for their target phoneme in three conditions. In the first condition, the children spoke in quiet. In the second condition, half of the children spoke while hearing an 80 dB SPL s-noise (high pass 2000 Hz) and the other half spoke under 80 dB of r-noise (low pass 1250 Hz). In the third condition, the noises were switched. It was assumed that a noise selected to overlap with the frequency range of the target phoneme would be most disruptive to articulation in the final stages of phoneme mastery. The hypothesis was borne out for the children with /s/ errors. These children had more errors under the s-noise than the r-noise. However, both noises caused a breakdown of articulation among children with /r/ errors. Though a feedback explanation can be adduced in both instances, there does seem to be a difference between these two speech defective populations.

The interruption of young children's responses by older siblings.

A group of language-delayed children, a group of older children with normal language development, and a group of younger children with normal language development served as subjects in this study. Questions were asked after a story was read to a younger child in the presence of an older sibling. The older sibling's interruptions of the question-answer dialogue was scored by frequency, type of interruption, and difficulty level of the questions being interrupted. Older siblings interrupted the question-answer interactions of the language-delayed children with a frequency that was similar to that observed in siblings of younger normal children but the interruptions of the language-delayed children were qualitatively different. Older siblings tended to directly answer questions addressed to language-delayed children rather than to provide prompts or rephrasings of the question as they did for young normal children. Siblings of both the language-delayed and the young normal children interrupted more frequently as the questions increased in difficulty.