Multi-polygenic prediction of frailty highlights chronic pain and educational attainment as key risk and protective factors.

Frailty is a complex trait. Twin studies and recent Genome-Wide Association Studies have demonstrated a strong genetic basis of frailty but there remains a lack of genetic studies exploring genetic prediction of Frailty. Previous work has shown that a single polygenic predictor - represented by a Frailty polygenic score - predicts Frailty, measured via the frailty index, in independent samples within the United Kingdom. We extended this work, using a multi-polygenic score (MPS) approach to increase predictive power. Predictor variables - twenty-six polygenic scores (PGS) were modelled in regularised Elastic net regression models, with repeated cross-validation, to estimate joint prediction of the polygenic scores and order the predictions by their contributing strength to Frailty in two independent cohorts aged 65+ - the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) and Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 (LBC1936). Results showed that the MPS explained 3.6% and 4.7% of variance compared to the best single-score prediction of 2.6% and 2.2% of variance in ELSA and LBC1936 respectively. The strongest polygenic predictors of worsening frailty came from PGS for Chronic pain, Frailty and Waist circumference; whilst PGS for Parental Death, Educational attainment, and Rheumatoid Arthritis were found to be protective to frailty. Results from the predictors remaining in the final model were then validated using the longitudinal LBC1936, with equivalent PGS scores from the same GWAS summary statistics. Thus, this MPS approach provides new evidence for the genetic contributions to frailty in later life and sheds light on the complex structure of the Frailty Index measurement.

Validation of a polygenic risk score for frailty in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 and English longitudinal study of ageing.

Frailty is a complex trait. Twin studies and high-powered Genome Wide Association Studies conducted in the UK Biobank have demonstrated a strong genetic basis of frailty. The present study utilized summary statistics from a Genome Wide Association Study on the Frailty Index to create and test the predictive power of frailty polygenic risk scores (PRS) in two independent samples - the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 (LBC1936) and the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) aged 67-84 years. Multiple regression models were built to test the predictive power of frailty PRS at five time points. Frailty PRS significantly predicted frailty, measured via the FI, at all-time points in LBC1936 and ELSA, explaining 2.1% (ß = 0.15, 95%CI, 0.085-0.21) and 1.8% (ß = 0.14, 95%CI, 0.10-0.17) of the variance, respectively, at age ~ 68/ ~ 70 years (p < 0.001). This work demonstrates that frailty PRS can predict frailty in two independent cohorts, particularly at early ages (~ 68/ ~ 70). PRS have the potential to be valuable instruments for identifying those at risk for frailty and could be important for controlling for genetic confounders in epidemiological studies.

Validation of a polygenic risk score for Frailty in the Lothian Birth Cohort and English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

Frailty is a complex trait. Twin studies and a high-powered Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS) conducted in the UK Biobank have demonstrated a strong genetic basis of frailty. The present study utilized summary statistics from this GWAS to create and test the predictive power of frailty polygenic risk scores (PRS) in two independent samples - the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 (LBC1936) and the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) aged 67-84 years. Multiple regression models were built to test the predictive power of frailty PRS at five time points. Frailty PRS significantly predicted frailty at all-time points in LBC1936 and ELSA, explaining 2.1% (ß = 0.15, 95%CI, 0.085-0.21) and 1.6% (ß = 0.14, 95%CI, 0.10-0.17) of the variance, respectively, at age ~68/~70 years (p < 0.001). This work demonstrates that frailty PRS can predict frailty in two independent cohorts, particularly at early ages (~68/~70). PRS have the potential to be valuable instruments for identifying those at risk for frailty and could be important for controlling for genetic confounders in epidemiological studies.