Antibiotic dose and nutrient availability differentially drive the evolution of antibiotic resistance and persistence.

Effective treatment of bacterial infections proves increasingly challenging due to the emergence of bacterial variants that endure antibiotic exposure. Antibiotic resistance and persistence have been identified as two major bacterial survival mechanisms, and several studies have shown a rapid and strong selection of resistance or persistence mutants under repeated drug treatment. Yet, little is known about the impact of the environmental conditions on resistance and persistence evolution and the potential interplay between both phenotypes. Based on the distinct growth and survival characteristics of resistance and persistence mutants, we hypothesized that the antibiotic dose and availability of nutrients during treatment might play a key role in the evolutionary adaptation to antibiotic stress. To test this hypothesis, we combined high-throughput experimental evolution with a mathematical model of bacterial evolution under intermittent antibiotic exposure. We show that high nutrient levels during antibiotic treatment promote selection of high-level resistance, but that resistance mainly emerges independently of persistence when the antibiotic concentration is sufficiently low. At higher doses, resistance evolution is facilitated by the preceding or concurrent selection of persistence mutants, which ensures survival of populations in harsh conditions. Collectively, our experimental data and mathematical model elucidate the evolutionary routes toward increased bacterial survival under different antibiotic treatment schedules, which is key to designing effective antibiotic therapies.

Toward greater realism in inclusive fitness models: the case of caste fate conflict in insect societies.

In the field of social evolution, inclusive fitness theory has been successful in making a wide range of qualitative predictions on expected patterns of cooperation and conflict. Nevertheless, outside of sex ratio theory, inclusive fitness models that make accurate quantitative predictions remain relatively rare. Past models dealing with caste fate conflict in insect societies, for example, successfully predicted that if female larvae can control their own caste fate, an excess should opt to selfishly develop as queens. Available models, however, were unable to accurately predict levels of queen production observed in Melipona bees-a genus of stingless bees where caste is self-determined-as empirically observed levels of queen production are approximately two times lower than the theoretically predicted ones. Here, we show that this discrepancy can be resolved by explicitly deriving the colony-level cost of queen overproduction from a dynamic model of colony growth, requiring the incorporation of parameters of colony growth and demography, such as the per-capita rate at which new brood cells are built and provisioned, the percentage of the queen's eggs that are female, costs linked with worker reproduction and worker mortality. Our revised model predicts queen overproduction to more severely impact colony productivity, resulting in an evolutionarily stable strategy that is approximately half that of the original model, and is shown to accurately predict actual levels of queen overproduction observed in different Melipona species. Altogether, this shows how inclusive fitness models can provide accurate quantitative predictions, provided that costs and benefits are modeled in sufficient detail and are measured precisely.

The impact of quality-adjusted life years on evaluating COVID-19 mitigation strategies: lessons from age-specific vaccination roll-out and variants of concern in Belgium (2020-2022).

BACKGROUND: When formulating and evaluating COVID-19 vaccination strategies, an emphasis has been placed on preventing severe disease that overburdens healthcare systems and leads to mortality. However, more conventional outcomes such as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and inequality indicators are warranted as additional information for policymakers. METHODS: We adopted a mathematical transmission model to describe the infectious disease dynamics of SARS-COV-2, including disease mortality and morbidity, and to evaluate (non)pharmaceutical interventions. Therefore, we considered temporal immunity levels, together with the distinct transmissibility of variants of concern (VOCs) and their corresponding vaccine effectiveness. We included both general and age-specific characteristics related to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. Our scenario study is informed by data from Belgium, focusing on the period from August 2021 until February 2022, when vaccination for children aged 5-11 years was initially not yet licensed and first booster doses were administered to adults. More specifically, we investigated the potential impact of an earlier vaccination programme for children and increased or reduced historical adult booster dose uptake. RESULTS: Through simulations, we demonstrate that increasing vaccine uptake in children aged 5-11 years in August-September 2021 could have led to reduced disease incidence and ICU occupancy, which was an essential indicator for implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions and maintaining healthcare system functionality. However, an enhanced booster dose regimen for adults from November 2021 onward could have resulted in more substantial cumulative QALY gains, particularly through the prevention of elevated levels of infection and disease incidence associated with the emergence of Omicron VOC. In both scenarios, the need for non-pharmaceutical interventions could have decreased, potentially boosting economic activity and mental well-being. CONCLUSIONS: When calculating the impact of measures to mitigate disease spread in terms of life years lost due to COVID-19 mortality, we highlight the impact of COVID-19 on the health-related quality of life of survivors. Our study underscores that disease-related morbidity could constitute a significant part of the overall health burden. Our quantitative findings depend on the specific setup of the interventions under review, which is open to debate or should be contextualised within future situations.

The inheritance of alternative nest architectural traditions in stingless bees.

The transmission of complex behavior and culture in humans has long been attributed to advanced forms of social learning,1,2 which play a crucial role in our technological advancement.3 While similar phenomena of behavioral traditions and cultural inheritance have been observed in animals,1,2,4,5,6 including in primates,7 whales,8 birds,9 and even insects,10 the underlying mechanisms enabling the persistence of such animal traditions, particularly in insects, are less well understood. This study introduces pioneering evidence of enduring architectural traditions in the stingless bee Scaptotrigona depilis, which are maintained without any evidence for social learning. We demonstrate that S. depilis exhibits two distinct nest architectures, comprising either helicoidal or flat, stacked horizontal combs, which are transmitted across generations through stigmergy11,12,13,14,15,16,17-an environmental feedback mechanism whereby the presence of the existing comb structures guides subsequent construction behaviors-thereby leading to a form of environmental inheritance.18,19,20 Cross-fostering experiments further show that genetic factors or prior experience does not drive the observed variation in nest architecture. Moreover, the experimental introduction of corkscrew dislocations within the combs prompted helicoidal building, confirming the use of stigmergic building rules. At a theoretical level, we establish that the long-term equilibrium of building in the helicoidal pattern fits with the expectations of a two-state Markov chain model. Overall, our findings provide compelling evidence for the persistence of behavioral traditions in an insect, based on a simple mechanism of environmental inheritance and stigmergic interactions, without requiring any sophisticated learning mechanism, thereby expanding our understanding of how traditions can be maintained in non-human species.

Predicting and improving complex beer flavor through machine learning.

The perception and appreciation of food flavor depends on many interacting chemical compounds and external factors, and therefore proves challenging to understand and predict. Here, we combine extensive chemical and sensory analyses of 250 different beers to train machine learning models that allow predicting flavor and consumer appreciation. For each beer, we measure over 200 chemical properties, perform quantitative descriptive sensory analysis with a trained tasting panel and map data from over 180,000 consumer reviews to train 10 different machine learning models. The best-performing algorithm, Gradient Boosting, yields models that significantly outperform predictions based on conventional statistics and accurately predict complex food features and consumer appreciation from chemical profiles. Model dissection allows identifying specific and unexpected compounds as drivers of beer flavor and appreciation. Adding these compounds results in variants of commercial alcoholic and non-alcoholic beers with improved consumer appreciation. Together, our study reveals how big data and machine learning uncover complex links between food chemistry, flavor and consumer perception, and lays the foundation to develop novel, tailored foods with superior flavors.

Uncovering the role of juvenile hormone in ovary development and egg laying in bumble bees.

Juvenile hormone (JH) regulates developmental and physiological processes in insects. In bumble bees, the hormone acts as a gonadotropin that mediates ovary development, but the exact physiological pathways involved in ovary activation and subsequent egg laying are poorly understood. In this study, we examine how queen hibernation state, caste, and species impact the gonadotropic effect of JH in bumble bee queens through methoprene (JH analogue) application. We extend previous research by assessing queen egg laying and colony initiation, alongside ovary development. Furthermore, we compared sensitivity of workers of both species to the juvenile hormone's gonadotropic effect. In both bumble bee species, the ovaries of hibernated queens were developed five to six days after breaking diapause, regardless of methoprene treatment. By contrast, methoprene did have a stimulatory effect on ovary development in non-hibernated queens. The dose needed to obtain this effect was higher in B. impatiens. Methoprene did not have gonadotropic effects in callow workers of both species. These results indicate that the physiological effect of exogenous methoprene application varies according to species, caste and hibernation status. Interestingly, despite gonadotropic effects in non-hibernated queens, oviposition was not accelerated by JH. This suggests that JH alone is insufficient to induce egg laying and that an additional stimulus, which is naturally present in hibernated queens, is required. Consequently, our findings indicate that other physiological processes, beyond a rise in JH alone, are required for oviposition and colony initiation.

Chemical signatures of egg maternity and Dufour's gland in Vespine wasps.

Cuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs) are often used in the chemical communication among social insects. CHCs can be used in nestmate recognition and as queen pheromones, the latter allows the regulation of the reproductive division of labor. In the common wasp Vespula vulgaris, CHCs and egg-marking hydrocarbons are caste-specific, being hydrocarbon queen pheromones and egg maternity signals. Whether these compounds are conserved among other Vespinae wasps remains unknown. Queens, virgin queens, reproductive workers, and workers belonging to four different wasp species, Dolichovespula media, Dolichovespula saxonica, Vespa crabro, and Vespula germanica, were collected and studied. The cuticular hydrocarbons, egg surface, and Dufour's gland composition were characterized and it was found that chemical compounds are caste-specific in the four species. Quantitative and qualitative differences were detected in the cuticle, eggs, and Dufour's gland. Some specific hydrocarbons that were shown to be overproduced in the cuticle of queens were also present in higher quantities in queen-laid eggs and in their Dufour's gland. These hydrocarbons can be indicated as putative fertility signals that regulate the division of reproductive labor in these Vespine societies. Our results are in line with the literature for V. vulgaris and D. saxonica, in which hydrocarbons were shown to be conserved queen signals. This work presents correlative evidence that queen chemical compounds are found not only over the body surface of females but also in other sources, such as the Dufour's gland and eggs.

Bacterial volatiles elicit differential olfactory responses in insect species from the same and different trophic levels.

Insect communities consist of species from several trophic levels that have to forage for suitable resources among and within larger patches of nonresources. To locate their resources, insects use diverse stimuli, including olfactory, visual, acoustic, tactile and gustatory cues. While most research has focused on cues derived from plants and other insects, there is mounting evidence that insects also respond to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitted by microorganisms. However, to date little is known about how the olfactory response of insects within and across different trophic levels is affected by bacterial VOCs. In this study, we used Y-tube bioassays and chemical analysis of VOCs to assess how VOCs emitted by bacteria affect the olfactory response of insects of the same and different trophic levels. Experiments were performed using two aphid species (Amphorophora idaei Börner and Myzus persicae var. nicotianae Blackman), three primary parasitoid species (Aphidius colemani Viereck, A. ervi Haliday, and A. matricariae Viereck), and two hyperparasitoid species (Asaphes suspensus Nees and Dendrocerus aphidum Rondani). Olfactory responses were evaluated for three bacterial strains (Bacillus pumilus ST18.16/133, Curtobacterium sp. ST18.16/085, and Staphylococcus saprophyticus ST18.16/160) that were isolated from the habitat of the insects. Results revealed that insects from all trophic levels responded to bacterial volatiles, but olfactory responses varied between and within trophic levels. All bacteria produced the same set of volatile compounds, but often in different relative concentrations. For 11 of these volatiles we found contrasting correlations between their concentration and the behavior of the primary parasitoids and hyperparasitoids. Furthermore, olfactometer experiments on three of these compounds confirmed the contrasting olfactory responses of primary parasitoids and hyperparasitoids. The potential of these findings for the development of novel semiochemical-based strategies to improve biological aphid control has been discussed.

Evolution of self-organised division of labour driven by stigmergy in leaf-cutter ants.

Social insects owe their widespread success to their ability to efficiently coordinate behaviour to carry out complex tasks. Several leaf-cutter ant species employ an advanced type of division of labour known as task partitioning, where the task of retrieving leaves is distributed between workers that cut and drop and those that collect the fallen leaves. It is not entirely clear how such highly coordinated behaviour can evolve, as it would seem to require the simultaneous mutations of multiple traits during the same generation. Here, we use an agent-based simulation model to show how task partitioning in leaf-cutter ants can gradually evolve by exploiting stigmergy (indirect coordination through the environment) through gravity (leaves falling from the treetop on the ground forming a cache). Our simple model allows independent variation in two core behavioural dimensions: the tendency to drop leaves and the tendency to pick up dropped leaves. Task partitioning readily evolves even under these minimal assumptions through adaptation to an arboreal environment where traveling up and down the tree is costly. Additionally, we analyse ant movement dynamics to demonstrate how the ants achieve efficient task allocation through task switching and negative feedback control.

Do microbes have a memory? History-dependent behavior in the adaptation to variable environments.

Microbes are constantly confronted with changes and challenges in their environment. A proper response to these environmental cues is needed for optimal cellular functioning and fitness. Interestingly, past exposure to environmental cues can accelerate or boost the response when this condition returns, even in daughter cells that have not directly encountered the initial cue. Moreover, this behavior is mostly epigenetic and often goes hand in hand with strong heterogeneity in the strength and speed of the response between isogenic cells of the same population, which might function as a bet-hedging strategy. In this review, we discuss examples of history-dependent behavior (HDB) or "memory," with a specific focus on HDB in fluctuating environments. In most examples discussed, the lag time before the response to an environmental change is used as an experimentally measurable proxy for HDB. We highlight different mechanisms already implicated in HDB, and by using HDB in fluctuating carbon conditions as a case study, we showcase how the metabolic state of a cell can be a key determining factor for HDB. Finally, we consider possible evolutionary causes and consequences of such HDB.

Misrepresentation of group contributions undermines conditional cooperation in a human decision making experiment.

Cooperative behaviour can evolve through conditional strategies that direct cooperation towards interaction partners who have themselves been cooperative in the past. Such strategies are common in human cooperation, but they can be vulnerable to manipulation: individuals may try to exaggerate their past cooperation to elicit reciprocal contributions or improve their reputation for future gains. Little is known about the prevalence and the ramifications of misrepresentation in human cooperation, neither in general nor about its cultural facets (self-sacrifice for the group is valued differently across cultures). Here, we present a large-scale interactive decision making experiment (N = 870), performed in China and the USA, in which individuals had repeated cooperative interactions in groups. Our results show that (1) most individuals from both cultures overstate their contributions to the group if given the opportunity, (2) misrepresentation of cooperation is detrimental to cooperation in future interactions, and (3) the possibility to build up a personal reputation amplifies the effects of misrepresentation on cooperation in China, but not in the USA. Our results suggest that misrepresentation of cooperation is likely to be an important factor in (the evolution of) human social behaviour, with, depending on culture, diverging impacts on cooperation outcomes.

Cuticular hydrocarbons as caste-linked cues in Neotropical swarm-founding wasps.

Wasps (Vespidae) are important organisms to understand the evolution of social behaviour. Wasps show different levels of sociality, which includes solitary to highly eusocial organisms. In social insect species, queens and workers differ in physiology and morphology. The Neotropical swarm-founding wasps (Epiponini) show a variety of caste syndromes. In this clade, the caste-flexibility is a unique characteristic, in which workers can become queens and swarm to start a new nest. The investigation of the caste system comparing several Epiponini species show a clear-cut morphological distinction between queens and workers, with a morphological continuum between queens and workers. However, whether cuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs) are used as cues for caste recognition in swarm-founding wasps is still unknown. We studied whether CHCs may display caste-linked differences in eleven species of Epiponini wasps and if CHCs differences would follow morphological patterns. Our results suggest that queens and workers of Epiponini wasps are chemically different from each other at two levels, qualitatively and quantitatively, or merely quantitatively. This variation seems to exist regardless of their morphological traits and may be useful to help us understanding how chemical communication evolved differently in these species.

Tragedy of the commons in Melipona bees revisited.

Melipona stingless bees display a paradoxical overproduction of queens, which are later eliminated by nest-mate workers. Mechanistically, it was suggested that the monoterpenoid geraniol deposited into newly provisioned cells by adult bees would cause larvae to develop into queens in Melipona beecheii. This system could be evolutionarily stable if many of these new queens were to leave the nest and parasitize other genetically unrelated colonies nearby, as was shown to occur in a congeneric species. Here, we use microsatellite markers to test whether queen overproduction could be a strategy by which adult workers control the caste fate of the developing larvae to export copies of their own genes to the rest of the population via queen parasitism in M. beecheii. In addition, we re-examined whether artificially increasing the levels of geraniol indeed caused larvae to develop as queens rather than workers. Contrary to our prediction, we found no evidence for queen parasitism in M. beecheii and observed no effect of geraniol on the rearing of new queens. Together, these results support the original 'tragedy of the commons' hypothesis for queen overproduction in Melipona bees, where individual larvae selfishly bias their development towards the queen pathway according to their best evolutionary interests.

Similarities in Recognition Cues Lead to the Infiltration of Non-Nestmates in an Ant Species.

Chemical cues are among the most important information-sharing mechanisms in insect societies, in which cuticular hydrocarbons play a central role, e.g., from nestmate recognition to queen signaling. The nestmate recognition mechanism usually prevents intruders from taking advantage of the resources stored in the nest. However, nestmate recognition is not unconditionally effective, and foreign individuals can sometimes infiltrate unrelated nests and take advantage of the colony resources. In this study, we investigated the role of overall colony odor profiles on the ability of conspecific workers to drift into unrelated colonies. We hypothesized that drifters would have higher chances of success by infiltrating colonies with the odor profiles most similar to their own nest, avoiding being detected as non-nestmates. By performing a drifting bioassay, we found that workers of the ant Formica fusca infiltrated unrelated conspecific colonies at a rate of 2.4%, significantly infiltrating colonies displaying CHC profiles most similar to their natal nests. Notably, methyl branched hydrocarbons seem to play a role as recognition cues in this species. In addition, we show that environmental rather than genetic factors are responsible for most contributions on the CHC phenotype, presenting ca. of 50% and 27.5% of explained variation respectively, and playing a major role in how worker ants detect and prevent the infiltration of non-nestmates in the colony. Hence, relying on cuticular hydrocarbons similarities could be a profitably evolutionary strategy by which workers can identify conspecific colonies, evade detection by guards, and avoid competition with genetic relatives.

Hormonal modulation of reproduction and fertility signaling in polistine wasps.

In social insects, it has been suggested that reproduction and the production of particular fertility-linked cuticular hydrocarbons (CHC) may be under shared juvenile hormone (JH) control, and this could have been key in predisposing such cues to later evolve into full-fledged queen pheromone signals. However, to date, only few studies have experimentally tested this "hormonal pleiotropy" hypothesis. Here, we formally test this hypothesis using data from four species of Polistine wasps, Polistes dominula, Polistes satan, Mischocyttarus metathoracicus, and Mischocyttarus cassununga, and experimental treatments with JH using the JH analogue methoprene and the anti-JH precocene. In line with reproduction being under JH control, our results show that across these four species, precocene significantly decreased ovary development when compared with both the acetone solvent-only control and the methoprene treatment. Consistent with the hormonal pleiotropy hypothesis, these effects on reproduction were further matched by subtle shifts in the CHC profiles, with univariate analyses showing that in P. dominula and P. satan the abundance of particular linear alkanes and mono-methylated alkanes were affected by ovary development and our hormonal treatments. The results indicate that in primitively eusocial wasps, and particularly in Polistes, reproduction and the production of some CHC cues are under joint JH control. We suggest that pleiotropic links between reproduction and the production of such hydrocarbon cues have been key enablers for the origin of true fertility and queen signals in more derived, advanced eusocial insects.

Identification of Blackberry (Rubus fruticosus) Volatiles as Drosophila suzukii Attractants.

The spotted wing drosophila, Drosophila suzukii, is an invasive pest species from Southeast Asia that was recently introduced in Europe and North America. As this fruit fly lays its eggs in ripening soft-skinned fruit, it causes great damage to a variety of crops, including cherries, blueberries, blackberries, raspberries, grapes, plums and strawberries. Consequently, there is a great demand for an effective and species-specific lure, which requires the development of successful attractants. Until now, there is no lure available that is species-specific and can detect the presence of D. suzukii before infestation. As blackberry (Rubus fruticosus) is one of the preferred host crops of D. suzukii, the volatile compounds of R. fruticosus berries are here identified and quantified using multiple headspace SPME (solid phase micro extraction) GC-MS (gas chromatography-mass spectrometry). Subsequently, the attractivity of 33 of the identified compounds was tested with a two-choice laboratory bioassay. Acetaldehyde, hexyl acetate, linalool, myrtenol, L-limonene and camphene came out as significantly attractive to D. suzukii. The first four attractive compounds induced the strongest effect and therefore provided the best prospects to be implemented in a potential lure. These findings could contribute towards the development of more effective attractants for monitoring and mass trapping D. suzukii.

Effects of juvenile hormone in fertility and fertility-signaling in workers of the common wasp Vespula vulgaris.

In the highly eusocial wasp, Vespula vulgaris, queens produce honest signals to alert their subordinate workers of their fertility status, and therefore they are reproductively suppressed and help in the colony. The honesty of the queen signals is likely maintained due to hormonal regulation, which affects fertility and fertility cue expression. Here, we tested if hormonal pleiotropy could support the hypothesis that juvenile hormone controls fertility and fertility signaling in workers. In addition, we aimed to check oocyte size as a proxy of fertility. To do that, we treated V. vulgaris workers with synthetic versions of juvenile hormone (JH) analogue and a JH inhibitor, methoprene and precocene, respectively. We dissected the treated females to check ovary activation and analyzed their chemical profile. Our results showed that juvenile hormone has an influence on the abundance of fertility linked compounds produced by workers, and it also showed to increase oocyte size in workers. Our results corroborate the hypothesis that juvenile hormone controls fertility and fertility signaling in workers, whereby workers are unable to reproduce without alerting other colony members of their fertility. This provides supports the hypothesis that hormonal pleiotropy contributes to keeping the queen fertility signals honest.

Population Bottlenecks Strongly Affect the Evolutionary Dynamics of Antibiotic Persistence.

Bacterial persistence is a potential cause of antibiotic therapy failure. Antibiotic-tolerant persisters originate from phenotypic differentiation within a susceptible population, occurring with a frequency that can be altered by mutations. Recent studies have proven that persistence is a highly evolvable trait and, consequently, an important evolutionary strategy of bacterial populations to adapt to high-dose antibiotic therapy. Yet, the factors that govern the evolutionary dynamics of persistence are currently poorly understood. Theoretical studies predict far-reaching effects of bottlenecking on the evolutionary adaption of bacterial populations, but these effects have never been investigated in the context of persistence. Bottlenecking events are frequently encountered by infecting pathogens during host-to-host transmission and antibiotic treatment. In this study, we used a combination of experimental evolution and barcoded knockout libraries to examine how population bottlenecking affects the evolutionary dynamics of persistence. In accordance with existing hypotheses, small bottlenecks were found to restrict the adaptive potential of populations and result in more heterogeneous evolutionary outcomes. Evolutionary trajectories followed in small-bottlenecking regimes additionally suggest that the fitness landscape associated with persistence has a rugged topography, with distinct trajectories toward increased persistence that are accessible to evolving populations. Furthermore, sequencing data of evolved populations and knockout libraries after selection reveal various genes that are potentially involved in persistence, including previously known as well as novel targets. Together, our results do not only provide experimental evidence for evolutionary theories, but also contribute to a better understanding of the environmental and genetic factors that guide bacterial adaptation to antibiotic treatment.

Close-range cues used by males of Polistes dominula in sex discrimination.

Sexual pheromones are chemical molecules responsible for mediating sex recognition and mating events. Long- and close-range sexual pheromones act differently. The first type is released to attract potential partners, whereas the second coordinates the interactions after potential mating partners encounter each other. Cuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs) have been suggested to be important cues in the mating systems of several Hymenoptera species, although empirical data are still lacking for many species. Here, we evaluated whether males of the model species Polistes dominula can differentiate the sex of individuals based on their CHC composition. In August 2019, several post-worker emergent nests (n = 19) were collected in the vicinity of Leuven (Belgium) and taken to the lab (KU Leuven), where newly emerged females and males were sampled, marked individually, and kept in plastic boxes for at least a week before being used in the mating trials. Focal males were paired with females and males from different nests and subjected to five different conditions: (I) alive, (II) dead, (III) CHCs washed, (IV) CHCs partially returned, and (V) CHCs from the opposite sex. We videotaped the interactions for 10 min and analysed the duration and different behavioural interactions of the focal male. Our results indicate that CHCs may be used by males as cues to recognise a potential mating partner in P. dominula, since the focal males displayed specific courtship behaviours exclusively toward females. Although we cannot exclude that visual cues could also be used in combination with the chemical ones, we empirically demonstrate that CHCs may be important to convey sexual information at close range in mating systems, allowing fast decisions toward potential sexual partners or rivals.

Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England.

A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.