Modelling the effect of demographic change and healthcare infrastructure on the patient structure in German hospitals - a longitudinal national study based on official hospital statistics.

BACKGROUND: Effects of demographic change, such as declining birth rates and increasing individual life expectancy, require health system adjustments offering age- and needs-based care. In addition, healthcare factors can also influence health services demand. METHODS: The official German hospital statistics database with odd-numbered years between 1995 and 2011 was analysed. This is a national comprehensive database of all general hospital inpatient services delivered. Official data from hospital statistics were linked at the district level with demographic and socio-economic data as well as population figures from the official regional statistics. Panel data regression, modelling case numbers per hospital, was performed for 13 diagnosis groups that characterised the patient structure. Socio-demographic variables included age, sex, household income, and healthcare factors included bed capacity, personnel and hospital characteristics. RESULTS: The median number of annual treatments per hospital increased from 6 015 (5th and 95th percentile [670; 24 812]) in 1995 to 7 817 in 2011 (5th and 95th percentile [301; 33 651]). We developed models characterising the patient structure of health care in Germany, considering both socio-demographic and hospital factors. Demographic factors influenced case numbers across all major diagnosis groups. For example, the age groups 65-74 and 75 + influenced cerebrovascular disease case numbers (p < 0.001). Other important factors included human and material resources of hospitals or the household income of patients. Distinct differences between the models for the individual diagnosis groups were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital planning should not only consider demographic change but also hospital infrastructure and socio-economic factors.

[Administrative Prevalence and Health Care Situation of Dementia Patients in Acute Care Hospitals: An Epidemiological Health Care Study Based on Claims Data of Insured Persons in Saxony]. / Administrative Prävalenz und Versorgungssituation der Demenz im Krankenhaus ­ Eine versorgungsepidemiologische Studie basierend auf GKV-Daten sächsischer Versicherter.

OBJECTIVE: The increasing number of people with dementia will challenge the health care system, especially acute care. Using health insurance claims data, the study objective was to examine the regional patterns of the administrative prevalence of dementia, the prevalence of dementia in hospitals and the care situation in hospitals. METHODS: We used 2014 claims data from AOK PLUS, the largest statutory health insurance service in Saxony. If dementia was diagnosed either in an outpatient or inpatient setting in 3 of 4 quarters in a year, a person was categorised as a dementia case (n=61,700). The analysis of health care status included 61,239 patients with dementia and 183,477 control subjects. The control group was matched using the criteria of gender, age and region of residence. RESULTS: For those older than 65 years, the overall administrative prevalence rate of dementia was 9.3%. The estimated prevalence for those in hospitals was 16.7%. In 2014, there were 33% more admissions, 36% more hospital days and 18% higher costs per person-year among people diagnosed with dementia than the control subjects. The longer annual hospital stays and the higher costs were primarily caused by the greater number of admissions of people with dementia. Inpatient service use was, compared to people without dementia, characterized by a need for care and assistance, rather than by a need for medical therapeutic and diagnostic procedures. CONCLUSION: To improve the health care situation of people with dementia, to adapt to the challenges facing hospitals and to reduce the financial burden caused by dementia, more efforts are needed to improve the health care situation. Measures include, among others, improvements in recognition of dementia and reduction of unnecessary hospital stays.

Determinants of hospitalization and length of stay among people with dementia - An analysis of statutory health insurance claims data.

OBJECTIVE: Dementia is a crucial challenge in acute care hospitals. Using a retrospective claims data cohort, this paper explores dementia patients' acute hospitalization rates, risk factors, and length of stay. METHODS: The study used claims data from AOK PLUS, the largest statutory health insurance service (SHI) in Saxony, a federal state of Germany. The analysis included 61,239 people with dementia and 183,477 control subjects, all 65 years and older. Control subjects were age, gender, and regionally matched in a 1:3 ratio. Negative binomial hurdle regression was used to compare differences in hospitalization for the year 2014. RESULTS: People with dementia had 1.49 times higher adjusted odds of being hospitalized at least once (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.46-1.52). Among those individuals hospitalized at least once, dementia increased the number of readmissions by 18% (95% CI, 1.15-1.20). Dementia patients also had a 1.74 times higher odds for at least one emergency admission compared to individuals without dementia (95% CI, 1.70-1.78). Dementia patients' admission risk factors included having care dependency, being recently diagnosed with dementia and living outside a metropolitan region. The increased length of stay for people with dementia per year was mainly attributable to higher admission rates. CONCLUSIONS: Dementia patients are at higher risk for hospitalization, especially if they live outside the metropolitan region. Healthcare systems need to respond to the challenges resulting from the predicted demographic developments and increasing burden of dementia in the general population.

Early comprehensive care of preterm infants-effects on quality of life, childhood development, and healthcare utilization: study protocol for a cohort study linking administrative healthcare data with patient reported primary data.

BACKGROUND: About 9 % of all children in Germany are born preterm. Despite significant improvements of medical care, preterm infants are at a greater risk to develop short and long term health complications. Negative consequences of preterm birth include neurodevelopmental disabilities, behavioral problems or learning disorders. Most data on effects of prematurity are derived from single or multi-center studies and not population-based. Since some of the long term problems of preterm delivery are associated with a disturbed parent-child interaction originating in the neonatal period, several intervention programs became available aiming to strengthen the early parent-child relationship. However, there is insufficient knowledge regarding the psychosocial and socioeconomic impact of these interventions. Prior to introducing them into routine care, those effects have to be rigorously evaluated. The population-based cohort study EcoCare-PIn (Early comprehensive Care of Preterm Infants-effects on quality of life, childhood development, and healthcare utilization) will investigate the following primary research questions: 1) What are the short- and long-term consequences of preterm birth with regard to parental stress, parent-child relationship, childhood development, quality of life and healthcare utilization including costs? 2) Does early family-centered psychosocial care prevent the hypothesized negative consequences of preterm birth on the above mentioned outcomes? METHODS/DESIGN: EcoCare-PIn examines the research questions by means of a linkage of a) pseudonymized administrative individual-level claims data from the German statutory health insurance AOK PLUS on approximately 140,000 children born between 2007 and 2013 in Saxony, and b) primary data collected from the parents/caregivers of all very low birth weight (<1,500 g; n = 1,000) and low birth weight infants (1,500 to 2,500 g; n = 5,500) and a matched sample of infants above 2,500 g birth weight (n = 10,000). DISCUSSION: In Saxony, approximately 50 % of all individuals are insured at the AOK PLUS. The linkage of patient-level administrative and primary data is a novel approach in neonatal research and probably the only way to overcome shortcomings of studies solely relying on one data source. The study results are based on an observation period of up to 8 years and will directly inform perinatal healthcare provision in Saxony and Germany as a whole.

Do red herrings swim in circles? Controlling for the endogeneity of time to death.

Studies on the effect of ageing on health care expenditure (HCE) have revealed the importance of controlling for time-to-death (TTD). These studies, however, are subject to possible endogeneity if HCE influences the remaining life expectancy. This paper introduces a 10-year observation period on monthly HCE, socioeconomic characteristics and survivor status to first predict TTD and then use the predicted values as an instrument in the regression for HCE. While exogeneity of TTD has to be rejected, core results concerning the role of TTD rather than age as a determinant of HCE (the 'red herring' hypothesis) are confirmed.

Population ageing and health care expenditure: a school of 'red herrings'?

This paper revisits the debate on the 'red herring', viz. the claim that population ageing will not have a significant impact on health care expenditure (HCE). It decomposes HCE into seven components, includes both survivors and deceased individuals, and estimates a two-part model of the demand for health care services, using a large Swiss data set for 1999. It finds no or weak age effects on HCE for the components of HCE when proximity to death is controlled for, and points to differences between users and non-users of long-term care (LTC). For deceased non-users of LTC services, a falling age curve for all components of HCE except for inpatient care is observed, while survivors show a weak age effect in ambulatory and inpatient care once proximity to death is controlled for. As to surviving users of LTC services, their probability of incurring LTC expenses markedly increases in old age, while most of the components of their conditional HCE show a decreasing age profile. Thus, a 'school of red herrings' can be claimed to exist-with the possible exception of LTC, where ageing might matter regardless of proximity to death.

A priori risk and optimal test accuracy in prenatal diagnostics.

The prevalence of fetal chromosome anomalies rises exponentially with the age of the pregnant woman. The risk of fetal anomalies can be specified using biochemical screening tests such as the triple test. This test substantially reduces the number of amniocenteses and proportionally the number of procedure-related miscarriages. However, disadvantages of the triple test include the utility loss of pregnant women who, following a false-negative test result, do not undergo amniocentesis and bear a disabled child as well as the intangible cost of a false-positive triple test. This paper employs a decision-analytic model to reveal the evaluation of this tradeoff, which is implicitly fixed by policy recommendations for a direct amniocentesis at maternal age of 35. It then determines the optimal level of cutoff risk for the triple test, and derives comparative static results: the optimal test accuracy decreases with increasing a-priori risk and increases with a rise in the miscarriage risk and in the woman's preference for detecting an affected fetus as compared to avoiding a miscarriage of an unaffected fetus. These results are in contrast to current clinical practice, where the cutoff of the triple test usually remains fixed.