Range position and climate sensitivity: The structure of among-population demographic responses to climatic variation.

Species' distributions will respond to climate change based on the relationship between local demographic processes and climate and how this relationship varies based on range position. A rarely tested demographic prediction is that populations at the extremes of a species' climate envelope (e.g., populations in areas with the highest mean annual temperature) will be most sensitive to local shifts in climate (i.e., warming). We tested this prediction using a dynamic species distribution model linking demographic rates to variation in temperature and precipitation for wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) in North America. Using long-term monitoring data from 746 populations in 27 study areas, we determined how climatic variation affected population growth rates and how these relationships varied with respect to long-term climate. Some models supported the predicted pattern, with negative effects of extreme summer temperatures in hotter areas and positive effects on recruitment for summer water availability in drier areas. We also found evidence of interacting temperature and precipitation influencing population size, such as extreme heat having less of a negative effect in wetter areas. Other results were contrary to predictions, such as positive effects of summer water availability in wetter parts of the range and positive responses to winter warming especially in milder areas. In general, we found wood frogs were more sensitive to changes in temperature or temperature interacting with precipitation than to changes in precipitation alone. Our results suggest that sensitivity to changes in climate cannot be predicted simply by knowing locations within the species' climate envelope. Many climate processes did not affect population growth rates in the predicted direction based on range position. Processes such as species-interactions, local adaptation, and interactions with the physical landscape likely affect the responses we observed. Our work highlights the need to measure demographic responses to changing climate.

The distribution of echinostome parasites in ponds and implications for larval anuran survival.

Parasites can influence host population dynamics, community composition and evolution. Prediction of these effects, however, requires an understanding of the influence of ecological context on parasite distributions and the consequences of infection for host fitness. We address these issues with an amphibian - trematode (Digenea: Echinostomatidae) host-parasite system. We initially performed a field survey of trematode infection in first (snail) and second (larval green frog, Rana clamitans) intermediate hosts over 5 years across a landscape of 23 ponds in southeastern Michigan. We then combined this study with a tadpole enclosure experiment in eight ponds. We found echinostomes in all ponds during the survey, although infection levels in both snails and amphibians differed across ponds and years. Echinostome prevalence (proportion of hosts infected) in snails also changed seasonally depending on host species, and abundance (parasites per host) in tadpoles depended on host size and prevalence in snails. The enclosure experiment demonstrated that infection varied at sites within ponds, and tadpole survival was lower in enclosures with higher echinostome abundance. The observed effects enhance our ability to predict when and where host-parasite interactions will occur and the potential fitness consequences of infection, with implications for population and community dynamics, evolution and conservation.

Cross-scale interactions and the distribution-abundance relationship.

Positive interspecific relationships between local abundance and extent of regional distribution are among the most ubiquitous patterns in ecology. Although multiple hypotheses have been proposed, the mechanisms underlying distribution-abundance (d-a) relationships remain poorly understood. We examined the intra- and interspecific distribution-abundance relationships for a metacommunity of 13 amphibian species sampled for 15 consecutive years. Mean density of larvae in occupied ponds was positively related to number of ponds occupied by species; employing the fraction of ponds uniquely available to each species this same relationship sharply decelerates. The latter relationship suggested that more abundant species inhabited most available habitats annually, whereas rarer species were dispersal limited. We inferred the mechanisms responsible for this pattern based on the dynamics of one species, Pseudacris triseriata, which transitioned between a rare, narrowly distributed species to a common, widely distributed species and then back again. Both transitions were presaged by marked changes in mean local densities driven by climatic effects on habitat quality. We identified threshold densities separating these population regime shifts that differed with landscape configuration. Our data suggest that these transitions were caused by strong cross-scale interactions between local resource/niche processes and larger scale metapopulation processes. The patterns we observed have relevance for understanding the mechanisms of interspecific d-a relationships and critical thresholds associated with habitat fragmentation.

Dispersal, niche breadth and population extinction: colonization ratios predict range size in North American dragonflies.

Species' range sizes are shaped by fundamental differences in species' ecological and evolutionary characteristics, and understanding the mechanisms determining range size can shed light on the factors responsible for generating and structuring biological diversity. Moreover, because geographic range size is associated with a species' risk of extinction and their ability to respond to global changes in climate and land use, understanding these mechanisms has important conservation implications. Despite the hypotheses that dispersal behaviour is a strong determinant of species range areas, few data are available to directly compare the relationship between dispersal behaviour and range size. Here, we overcome this limitation by combining data from a multispecies dispersal experiment with additional species-level trait data that are commonly hypothesized to affect range size (e.g. niche breadth, local abundance and body size.). This enables us to examine the relationship between these species-level traits and range size across North America for fifteen dragonfly species. Ten models based on a priori predictions about the relationship between species traits and range size were evaluated and two models were identified as good predictors of species range size. These models indicated that only two species' level traits, dispersal behaviour and niche breadth were strongly related to range size. The evidence from these two models indicated that dragonfly species that disperse more often and further had larger North American ranges. Extinction and colonization dynamics are expected to be a key linkage between dispersal behaviour and range size in dragonflies. To evaluate how extinction and colonization dynamics among dragonflies were related to range size we used an independent data set of extinction and colonization rates for eleven dragonfly species and assessed the relationship between these populations rates and North American range areas for these species. We found a negative relationship between North American range size and species' extinction-to-colonization ratios. Our results indicate that metapopulation dynamics act to shape the extent of species' continental distributions. These population dynamics are likely to interact with dispersal behaviour, particularly at species range margins, to determine range limits and ultimately species range sizes.

Stress hormones mediate predator-induced phenotypic plasticity in amphibian tadpoles.

Amphibian tadpoles display extensive anti-predator phenotypic plasticity, reducing locomotory activity and, with chronic predator exposure, developing relatively smaller trunks and larger tails. In many vertebrates, predator exposure alters activity of the neuroendocrine stress axis. We investigated predator-induced effects on stress hormone production and the mechanistic link to anti-predator defences in Rana sylvatica tadpoles. Whole-body corticosterone (CORT) content was positively correlated with predator biomass in natural ponds. Exposure to caged predators in mesocosms caused a reduction in CORT by 4 hours, but increased CORT after 4 days. Tadpoles chronically exposed to exogenous CORT developed larger tails relative to their trunks, matching morphological changes induced by predator chemical cue; this predator effect was blocked by the corticosteroid biosynthesis inhibitor metyrapone. Tadpole tail explants treated in vitro with CORT increased tissue weight, suggesting that CORT acts directly on the tail. Short-term treatment of tadpoles with CORT increased predation mortality, likely due to increased locomotory activity. However, long-term CORT treatment enhanced survivorship, likely due to induced morphology. Our findings support the hypothesis that tadpole physiological and behavioural/morphological responses to predation are causally interrelated. Tadpoles initially suppress CORT and behaviour to avoid capture, but increase CORT with longer exposure, inducing adaptive phenotypic changes.

Synergistic effects of predators and trematode parasites on larval green frog (Rana clamitans) survival.

Parasites and predators can have complex, nonadditive effects on a shared group of victims, which can have important consequences for population dynamics. In particular, parasites can alter host traits that influence predation risk, and predators can have nonconsumptive effects on prey traits which influence susceptibility (i.e., infection intensity and tolerance) to parasites. Here, we examined the combined effects of trematode parasites (Digenea: Echinostomatidae) and odonate (Anax) predators on the survival of larval green frogs (Rana clamitans). First, in a large-scale mesocosm experiment, we manipulated the presence or absence of parasites in combination with the presence of no predator, caged predators, or free predators, and measured survival, traits, and infection. Parasites, caged predators, and free predators decreased survival, and we found a strong negative synergistic effect of parasites in combination with free predators on survival. Importantly, we then examined the potential mechanisms that explain the observed synergistic effect of parasites and predators in a series of follow-up experiments. Results of the follow-up experiments suggest that increased predation susceptibility due to elevated activity levels in the presence of free-swimming parasite infective stages (i.e., an avoidance response) is the most likely mechanism responsible for the observed synergism. These results suggest a potential trade-off in susceptibility to parasites and predators, which can drive nonadditive effects that may have important consequences for natural enemy interactions in natural populations and amphibian conservation.

Scaling-up anti-predator phenotypic responses of prey: impacts over multiple generations in a complex aquatic community.

Non-consumptive effects (NCEs) of predators owing to induced changes in prey traits are predicted to influence the structure of ecological communities. However, evidence of the importance of NCEs is limited primarily to simple systems (e.g. two to four species) over relatively short periods (e.g. less than one generation). We examined the NCEs of a fish predator, arising from phenotypic plasticity in zooplankton prey traits, over multiple generations of a diverse zooplankton community. The presence of fish, caged to remove consumptive effects, strongly influenced zooplankton community structure, through both direct and indirect NCE pathways, altering the abundance of many taxa by magnitudes as large as 3 to 10-fold. Presence of fish affected different species of cladocerans and copepods both positively and negatively. A particularly striking result was the reversal of dominance in copepod taxa: presence of fish reduced the ratio of calanoids to cyclopoids from 6.3 to 0.43. Further, the NCE of fish had a strong negative trophic cascade to zooplankton resources (phytoplankton). To our knowledge, this is the first experiment to show that NCEs can influence the abundance of multiple prey species over time spans of multiple prey generations. Our findings demonstrate that adaptive phenotypic plasticity of individuals can scale-up to affect the structure of ecological communities.

Chronic exposure to fluoxetine (Prozac) causes developmental delays in Rana pipiens larvae.

Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), such as fluoxetine, are among the many pharmaceuticals detected in aquatic ecosystems. Although the acute effects of SSRIs on select organisms have been reported, little is understood about the chronic effects of these drugs on amphibians, which are particularly sensitive to environmental pollutants. Serotonin plays important roles in many physiological functions, including a wide array of developmental processes. Exposure to SSRIs during development may cause developmental complications in a variety of organisms, but little is known about the degree of exposure necessary to cause deleterious effects. Here, we sought to gain a better understanding of the effects of SSRIs on amphibian development by use of a combined laboratory and outdoor mesocosm study. Tadpoles in a laboratory setting were exposed to a low (0.029 µg/L) and a high (0.29 µg/L) concentration of the common SSRI fluoxetine from stages 21 and 22 through completion of metamorphosis. Tadpoles in outdoor mesocosms were exposed to fluoxetine concentrations ranging from 0.1 to 0.3 µg/L. Exposed tadpoles in the laboratory showed delayed development compared with controls when stage was assessed throughout the experiment. Control tadpoles also gained weight faster than treatment tadpoles, which may be explained by reduced food intake. Mesocosm tadpoles exhibited similar trends, but no significant differences were detected. These results indicate that ecologically relevant levels of fluoxetine may cause developmental delays in amphibians.

Interactions between behavioral and life-history trade-offs in the evolution of integrated predator-defense plasticity.

Inducible defense, which is phenotypic plasticity in traits that affect predation risk, is taxonomically widespread and has been shown to have important ecological consequences. However, it remains unclear what factors promote the evolution of qualitatively different defense strategies and when evolution should favor strategies that involve modification of multiple traits. Previous theory suggests that individual-level trade-offs play a key role in defense evolution, but most of this work has assumed that trade-offs are independent. Here we show that the shape of the behavioral trade-off between foraging gain and predation risk determines the interaction between this trade-off and the life-history trade-off between growth and reproduction. The interaction between these fundamental trade-offs determines the optimal investment into behavioral and life-history defenses. Highly nonlinear foraging-predation risk trade-offs favor the evolution of behavioral defenses, while linear trade-offs favor life-history defenses. Between these extremes, integrated defense responses are optimal, with defense expression strongly depending on ontogeny. We suggest that these predictions may be general across qualitatively different defenses. Our results have important implications for theory on the ecological effects of inducible defense, which has not considered how qualitatively different defenses might alter ecological interactions.

A hump-shaped relationship between isolation and abundance of Notonecta irrorata colonists in aquatic mesocosms.

We examined the relationship between the isolation of experimental aquatic mesocosms and the abundance of an aquatic insect colonist, Notonecta irrorata, over two years. We used a curve-fitting approach to assess whether linear or quadratic models better describe the relationship between isolation and abundance. For two measures of mesocosm isolation, distance to nearest source and distance to the largest source population, there was a significant quadratic relationship between isolation and abundance. Abundance of colonizing N. irrorata was not found to be significantly related to a third measure of isolation, mesocosm connectivity. These results indicate that the relationship between habitat isolation and colonist abundance may not be a monotonic decline across all spatial scales, a finding that contradicts the usual assumption incorporated in measures of habitat connectivity. Our results suggest that under some circumstances individuals that have undertaken dispersal may bypass patches they encounter early in this process and preferentially settle in patches encountered later. This behavioral preference in conjunction with decreased numbers of potential colonists at sites far from the source environment could lead to the "hump-shaped" colonist abundance by habitat isolation relationship we observed in this study. We suggest that simple assumptions about the relationship between habitat isolation and the probability a site is colonized need to be reexamined and alternative possible forms of this relationship tested.

Consumptive and nonconsumptive effects of predators on metacommunities of competing prey.

Although predators affect prey both via consumption and by changing prey migration behavior, the interplay between these two effects is rarely incorporated into spatial models of predator-prey dynamics and competition among prey. We develop a model where generalist predators have consumptive effects (i.e., altering the likelihood of local prey extinction) as well as nonconsumptive effects (altering the likelihood of colonization) on spatially separated prey populations (metapopulations). We then extend this model to explore the effects of predators on competition among prey. We find that generalist predators can promote persistence of prey metapopulations by promoting prey colonization, but predators can also hasten system-wide extinction by either increasing local extinction or reducing prey migration. By altering rates of prey migration, predators in one location can exert remote control over prey dynamics in another location via predator-mediated changes in prey flux. Thus, the effect of predators may extend well beyond the proportion of patches they visit. In the context of prey metacommunities, predator-mediated shifts in prey migration and mortality can shift the competition-colonization trade-off among competing prey, leading to changes in the prey community as well as changes in the susceptibility of prey species to habitat loss. Consequently, native prey communities may be susceptible to invasion not only by exotic prey species that experience reduced amounts of mortality from resident predators, but also by exotic prey species that exhibit strong dispersal in response to generalist native predators. Ultimately, our work suggests that the consumptive and nonconsumptive effects of generalist predators may have strong, yet potentially cryptic, effects on competing prey capable of mediating coexistence, fostering invasion, and interacting with anthropogenic habitat alteration.

Metacommunity patterns in larval odonates.

The growth of metacommunity ecology as a subdiscipline has increased interest in how processes at different spatial scales structure communities. However, there is still a significant knowledge gap with respect to relating the action of niche- and dispersal-assembly mechanisms to observed species distributions across gradients. Surveys of the larval dragonfly community (Odonata: Anisoptera) in 57 lakes and ponds in southeast Michigan were used to evaluate hypotheses about the processes regulating community structure in this system. We considered the roles of both niche- and dispersal-assembly processes in determining patterns of species richness and composition across a habitat gradient involving changes in the extent of habitat permanence, canopy cover, area, and top predator type. We compared observed richness patterns and species distributions in this system to patterns predicted by four general community models: species sorting related to adaptive trade-offs, a developmental constraints hypothesis, dispersal assembly, and a neutral community assemblage. Our results supported neither the developmental constraints nor the neutral-assemblage models. Observed patterns of richness and species distributions were consistent with patterns expected when adaptive tradeoffs and dispersal-assembly mechanisms affect community structure. Adaptive trade-offs appeared to be important in limiting the distributions of species which segregate across the habitat gradient. However, dispersal was important in shaping the distributions of species that utilize habitats with a broad range of hydroperiods and alternative top predator types. Our results also suggest that the relative importance of these mechanisms may change across this habitat gradient and that a metacommunity perspective which incorporates both niche- and dispersal-assembly processes is necessary to understand how communities are organized.

Mechanisms of nonlethal predator effect on cohort size variation: ecological and evolutionary implications.

Understanding the factors responsible for generating size variation in cohorts of organisms is important for predicting their population and evolutionary dynamics. We group these factors into two broad classes: those due to scaling relationships between growth and size (size-dependent factors), and those due to individual trait differences other than size (size-independent factors; e.g., morphology, behavior, etc.). We develop a framework predicting that the nonlethal presence of predators can have a strong effect on size variation, the magnitude and sign of which depend on the relative influence of both factors. We present experimental results showing that size-independent factors can strongly contribute to size variation in anuran larvae, and that the presence of a larval dragonfly predator reduced expression of these size-independent factors. Further, a review of a number of experiments shows that the effect of this predator on relative size variation of a cohort ranged from negative at low growth rates to positive at high growth rates. At high growth rates, effects of size-dependent factors predominate, and predator presence causes an increase in the scaling of growth rate with size (larger individuals respond less strongly to predator presence than small individuals). Thus predator presence led to an increase in size variation. In contrast, at low growth rates, size-independent factors were relatively more important, and predator presence reduced expression of these size-independent factors. Consequently, predator presence led to a decrease in size variation. Our results therefore indicate a further mechanism whereby nonlethal predator effects can be manifest on prey species performance. These results have strong implications for both ecological and evolutionary processes. Theoretical studies indicate that changes in cohort size variation can have profound effects on population dynamics and stability, and therefore the mere presence of a predator could have important ecological consequences. Further, changes in cohort size variation can have important evolutionary implications through changes in trait heritability.

The growth-mortality tradeoff: evidence from anuran larvae and consequences for species distributions.

A tradeoff affecting the ability to grow under high versus low resource levels has been commonly hypothesized to influence species distributions across resource gradients in a wide variety of taxa. This influence is dependent on individual growth being proportional to traits that affect demographic processes such as mortality. However, data on how individual growth scales with demographic performance are rare. We conducted a mesocosm experiment, and re-analyzed data from a similarly designed field experiment, to examine the relationship between growth and mortality in two tadpole species that segregate across a resource gradient. Overall, environmental conditions leading to faster growth also lead to lower mortality rates. However, species differed in this relationship. Leopard frogs achieved faster growth than wood frogs, but their absolute mortality was greater and increased steeply as growth decreased. Conversely, absolute mortality of wood frogs was lower and less strongly dependent on growth. These interspecific differences suggest a second tradeoff, that between maximizing growth rates or minimizing mortality, with potentially important demographic consequences. Leopard frogs grow faster than wood frogs in productive ponds, but are excluded from unproductive ponds dominated by wood frogs due to accelerating mortality rates with declining realized growth. A review of the literature suggests that in diverse taxa, including plants, microcrustaceans and drosophilids, patterns in mortality are consistent with this tradeoff indicating that the mechanism we demonstrate could be a link between individual performance and demographic rates influencing species distributions in other systems.

Lethal and nonlethal predator effects on an herbivore guild mediated by system productivity.

Indirect effects propagated through intervening species in a food web have important effects on community properties. Traditionally, these indirect effects have been conceptualized as mediated through density changes of the intervening species, but it is becoming increasingly apparent that those mediated through trait (phenotypic) responses also can be very important. Because density- and trait-mediated indirect effects have different properties, it is critical that we understand the mechanisms of transmission in order to predict how they will interact, and when or where they will be important. In this study, we examined the mechanisms and consequences of the lethal (density-mediated) and nonlethal (trait-mediated) effects of a larval odonate predator on a guild of four herbivore species (a larval anuran and three species of snails) and their resources. We also manipulated system productivity in order to explore the effects of environmental context on the transmission of these two types of indirect effects. We show that trait-mediated effects arising from the predator can be very strong relative to density-mediated effects on both the competing herbivores and the species composition and production of their resources. A number of these indirect effects are shown to be contingent on productivity of the system. We further present evidence that trait- and density-mediated indirect effects originating from a predator may be transmitted independently through different routes in a food web, particularly when spatial responses of the transmitting prey are involved. Finally, effects on prey growth due to trait responses to the predator varied from negative to positive in predictable ways as a function of time and indirect effects on the larger food web. These results indicate the important role that trait-mediated indirect effects can play in trophic cascades and keystone predator interactions, and we discuss how the mechanisms involved can be incorporated in theory.

NATURAL SELECTION FOR ENVIRONMENTALLY INDUCED PHENOTYPES IN TADPOLES.

Models suggest that phenotypic plasticity is maintained in situations where the optimal phenotype differs through time or space, so that selection acts in different directions in different environments. Some empirical work supports the general premise of this prediction because phenotypes induced by a particular environment sometimes perform better than other phenotypes when tested in that environment. We have extended these results by estimating the targets of selection in Pseudacris triseriata tadpoles in environments without predators and with larval Anax dragonflies. Tadpoles displayed significant behavioral and morphological plasticity when reared in the presence and absence of nonlethal dragonflies for 32 days in cattle tanks. We measured selection in the absence of free predators by regressing growth and survival in the tanks against activity and several measures of tail and body shape. We measured selection in the presence of predators by exposing groups of 10 tadpoles to Anax in overnight predation trials and regressing the average phenotype of survivors against the number of tadpoles killed. Selection in the two environments acted in opposite directions on both tail and body shape, although the affected fitness components were different. In the presence of Anax, tadpoles with shallow and narrow body, deep tail fin, and wide tail muscle survived best. In the absence of free predators, tadpoles with narrow tail muscle grew significantly faster, and those with shallow tail fin and deep body grew somewhat faster. Activity was unrelated to survival or growth in either environment. Developmental plasticity in tail shape closely paralleled selection, because tail fin depth increased after long-term exposure to Anax and tail muscle width tended to increase. In contrast, there was no plasticity in body shape in spite of strong selection for decreasing body depth. Thus, when confronted with a dragonfly predator, P. triseriata tadpoles adjusted their tail shape (but not body shape) almost exactly in the direction of selection imposed by Anax. These results suggest that phenotypic plasticity in some morphological traits, such as tail depth and tail muscle width, has evolved under intermittent selection by dragonflies. Other traits that undergo selection by dragonflies, such as body morphology, appear developmentally rigid, perhaps because of historically strong opposing selection in nature or other constraints.