Prolonged Wait Time Prior to Entry to Home Care Packages Increases the Risk of Mortality and Transition to Permanent Residential Aged Care Services: Findings from the Registry of Older South Australians (ROSA).

BACKGROUND: Older Australians prefer to live in their own homes for longer and reforms have attempted to increase the volume of home care packages (HCPs) accordingly but there remains a queue with the longer-term consequences unclear. OBJECTIVES: This study aims to characterise older Australians according to their wait times for a home care package (HCP), evaluate the association between wait time and mortality and evaluate the association between wait time and transition to permanent residential aged care services after HCP. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study using data from the National Historical cohort (2003-2014) of the Registry of Older South Australians (ROSA) was conducted. SETTING: Home based aged care services, national cohort. METHODS: Wait time was estimated from approval date to date of receiving a HCP. Descriptive, survival estimates (95% confidence intervals (CIs)), and multivariable survival analyses (Cox-regression) were conducted to evaluate the risk of mortality and transition to permanent residential aged care services by quartiles of wait time for HCP. RESULTS: The cohort was followed for 4.0 years (interquartile range IQR (1.8-7.2)) and 38% were alive at the end of the study period with a median wait time for HCP of 62 (21-187) days. From 178,924 older people who received a HCP during the study period (2003-2013), 33.2% people received HCP within 30 days, 74.3% within 6 months and 25.7% after 6 months. The effect of wait time on risk of mortality was time-dependent, with longer wait times associated with higher mortality in the longer term. Compared to people who waited ≤30 days for a HCP, individuals who waited more than 6 months had an almost 20% excess risk of death (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR), 95%CI = (1.18, 1.16-1.21)) 2 years after entry into a HCP. Those who waited more than 6 months also had a 10% (1.10, 1.06-1.13) higher risk of transition to permanent residential aged care services after two years. CONCLUSION: Prolonged wait times for HCP is associated with a higher risk of long-term mortality as well as transition to permanent residential aged care. It remains to be seen if a shortening of this wait time translates into better health outcomes.

Inflammasome signaling affects anxiety- and depressive-like behavior and gut microbiome composition.

The inflammasome is hypothesized to be a key mediator of the response to physiological and psychological stressors, and its dysregulation may be implicated in major depressive disorder. Inflammasome activation causes the maturation of caspase-1 and activation of interleukin (IL)-1ß and IL-18, two proinflammatory cytokines involved in neuroimmunomodulation, neuroinflammation and neurodegeneration. In this study, C57BL/6 mice with genetic deficiency or pharmacological inhibition of caspase-1 were screened for anxiety- and depressive-like behaviors, and locomotion at baseline and after chronic stress. We found that genetic deficiency of caspase-1 decreased depressive- and anxiety-like behaviors, and conversely increased locomotor activity and skills. Caspase-1 deficiency also prevented the exacerbation of depressive-like behaviors following chronic stress. Furthermore, pharmacological caspase-1 antagonism with minocycline ameliorated stress-induced depressive-like behavior in wild-type mice. Interestingly, chronic stress or pharmacological inhibition of caspase-1 per se altered the fecal microbiome in a very similar manner. When stressed mice were treated with minocycline, the observed gut microbiota changes included increase in relative abundance of Akkermansia spp. and Blautia spp., which are compatible with beneficial effects of attenuated inflammation and rebalance of gut microbiota, respectively, and the increment in Lachnospiracea abundance was consistent with microbiota changes of caspase-1 deficiency. Our results suggest that the protective effect of caspase-1 inhibition involves the modulation of the relationship between stress and gut microbiota composition, and establishes the basis for a gut microbiota-inflammasome-brain axis, whereby the gut microbiota via inflammasome signaling modulate pathways that will alter brain function, and affect depressive- and anxiety-like behaviors. Our data also suggest that further elucidation of the gut microbiota-inflammasome-brain axis may offer novel therapeutic targets for psychiatric disorders.

From gut dysbiosis to altered brain function and mental illness: mechanisms and pathways.

The human body hosts an enormous abundance and diversity of microbes, which perform a range of essential and beneficial functions. Our appreciation of the importance of these microbial communities to many aspects of human physiology has grown dramatically in recent years. We know, for example, that animals raised in a germ-free environment exhibit substantially altered immune and metabolic function, while the disruption of commensal microbiota in humans is associated with the development of a growing number of diseases. Evidence is now emerging that, through interactions with the gut-brain axis, the bidirectional communication system between the central nervous system and the gastrointestinal tract, the gut microbiome can also influence neural development, cognition and behaviour, with recent evidence that changes in behaviour alter gut microbiota composition, while modifications of the microbiome can induce depressive-like behaviours. Although an association between enteropathy and certain psychiatric conditions has long been recognized, it now appears that gut microbes represent direct mediators of psychopathology. Here, we examine roles of gut microbiome in shaping brain development and neurological function, and the mechanisms by which it can contribute to mental illness. Further, we discuss how the insight provided by this new and exciting field of research can inform care and provide a basis for the design of novel, microbiota-targeted, therapies.

CNS-specific regulatory elements in brain-derived HIV-1 strains affect responses to latency-reversing agents with implications for cure strategies.

Latency-reversing agents (LRAs), including histone deacetylase inhibitors (HDACi), are being investigated as a strategy to eliminate latency in HIV-infected patients on suppressive antiretroviral therapy. The effectiveness of LRAs in activating latent infection in HIV strains derived from the central nervous system (CNS) is unknown. Here we show that CNS-derived HIV-1 strains possess polymorphisms within and surrounding the Sp transcription factor motifs in the long terminal repeat (LTR). These polymorphisms result in decreased ability of the transcription factor specificity protein 1 to bind CNS-derived LTRs, reducing the transcriptional activity of CNS-derived viruses. These mutations result in CNS-derived viruses being less responsive to activation by the HDACi panobinostat and romidepsin compared with lymphoid-derived viruses from the same subjects. Our findings suggest that HIV-1 strains residing in the CNS have unique transcriptional regulatory mechanisms, which impact the regulation of latency, the consideration of which is essential for the development of HIV-1 eradication strategies.

Symptoms of depression and rates of neurocognitive impairment in HIV positive patients in Beijing, China.

BACKGROUND: In China an estimated 780,000 people are living with HIV (PLWH). In high-income countries PLWH are at increased risk of depression, with subsequent adverse consequences for quality of life, and HIV-related morbidity and mortality. There are few data from low-and middle-income countries. The aims of this country-specific investigation of the Asia Pacific NeuroAIDS Consortium (APNAC) study were to establish the point prevalence, severity and HIV-related and non-HIV related correlates of depressive symptoms in PLWH, in Beijing, China. METHOD: PLWH attending an outpatient clinic at Ditan Hospital, Beijing were recruited consecutively. Data sources were: study-specific questions about demographic characteristics, and health behaviours, the Centre for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale (CES-D), the World Health Organisation Self-Reporting Questionnaire (SRQ-20) translated into Mandarin and administered as structured individual interviews, and a screen battery of four standard neuropsychological tests. RESULTS: In total 50/51 (98%) eligible patients agreed to participate. Overall 28% scored CES-D≥16 or SRQ20≥10 and 18% in these clinical ranges on both measures; 69% were classified as being neuropsychologically impaired (scoring below 1 SD of the control value on at least two tests). Higher depressive symptom scores were associated with lower education, alcohol overuse and diminished motor ability (all p<0.05), but not neuropsychological impairment CONCLUSION: Clinically significant depressive symptoms among this cohort of PLWH in Beijing occurred at 5 times the rate reported among a general Chinese urban population. No participants had been assessed for depression prior to the study and none were treated, indicating that consideration of psychological morbidity and its consequences for health behaviours should be incorporated into routine HIV care in China.

Hepatitis C seropositivity is not a risk factor for sensory neuropathy among patients with HIV.

BACKGROUND: Sensory neuropathy (SN) is common in patients with HIV. Hepatitis C (HCV) coinfection is often cited as an HIV-SN risk factor, but data to support this are lacking. This collaboration aimed to examine the association between HCV serostatus and SN risk among ambulatory HIV-positive patients. METHODS: Patients with HIV were assessed in cross-sectional studies in Baltimore, Jakarta, Johannesburg, Kuala Lumpur, Melbourne, and Sydney for SN (defined by both supportive symptoms and signs). HCV seropositivity was assessed as an SN risk using a chi(2) test, followed by logistic regression modeling to correct for treatment exposures and demographics. RESULTS: A total of 837 patients of African, Asian, and Caucasian descent were studied. HCV seroprevalence varied by site (Baltimore n = 104, 61% HCV+; Jakarta 96, 51%; Johannesburg 300, 1%; Kuala Lumpur 97, 10%; Melbourne 206, 16%; Sydney 34, 18%). HCV seropositivity was not associated with increased SN risk at any site, but was associated with reduced SN risk in Melbourne (p = 0.003). On multivariate analyses, the independent associations with SN were increasing age, height, and stavudine exposure. HCV seropositivity was not independently associated with an increased SN risk at any site, but associated independently with reduced SN risk in Baltimore (p = 0.04) and Melbourne (p = 0.06). CONCLUSIONS: Hepatitis C (HCV) seropositivity was not associated with increased sensory neuropathy risk among HIV-positive patients at any site. While we were unable to assess HCV RNA or liver damage, the data suggest that HCV coinfection is not a major contributor to HIV-SN. HCV = hepatitis C; SN = sensory neuropathy.

Neurologic disorders are prevalent in HIV-positive outpatients in the Asia-Pacific region.

BACKGROUND: A total of 8.3 million HIV-positive people live in the Asia-Pacific region. The burden of HIV-associated neurocognitive impairment and symptomatic sensory neuropathy in this region is unknown. METHODS: Between July 2005 and March 2006, we undertook a cross-sectional study at 10 sentinel sites within eight Asia-Pacific countries to determine the prevalence of moderate to severe HIV-related neurocognitive impairment and symptomatic sensory neuropathy. We clinically assessed and administered sensitive neuropsychological and peripheral neuropathy screening tools to 658 patients infected with HIV. Univariate and logistic regression analyses were applied to the data. RESULTS: The results showed that 76 patients (11.7%) (95% CI 9.3-14.2) were significantly neurocognitively impaired, 235 patients (36.4%) (95% CI 32.7-40.2) were depressed, and 126 patients (19.7%) (95% CI 16.6-22.8) had either definite or probable symptomatic sensory neuropathy; 63% of this last group had exposure to stavudine, didanosine, or zalcitabine. Several potential confounders including depression (OR 1.49, 95% CI 0.88-2.51, p = 0.11) and prior CNS AIDS illness (OR 1.28, 95% CI 0.50-2.89, p = 0.54) were not significantly associated with neurocognitive impairment. CONCLUSIONS: A total of 12% of patients had moderate to severe HIV-related neurocognitive impairment, 20% of patients had symptomatic sensory neuropathy, and 36% of patients had evidence of depression. This study provides a broad regional estimate of the burden of HIV-related neurologic disease and depression in the Asia-Pacific region.

Prevalence of and risk factors for HIV-associated neuropathy in Melbourne, Australia 1993-2006.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to describe the prevalence of and risk factors for HIV-associated sensory neuropathy (HIV-SN) in 2006 [the era of stavudine, didanosine and zalcitabine (dNRTI)-sparing highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART)] and to compare our findings with data obtained in the same clinic in 1993 (pre-HAART) and 2001 (frequent use of dNRTI-containing HAART). METHODS: This was a cross-sectional comparative study using convenience sampling. HIV-positive adults attending a tertiary referral clinic over a 2-week period were screened for HIV-SN using the AIDS Clinical Trials Group screening tool. HIV-SN was defined as present if the patient had both neuropathic symptoms and abnormal signs. Demographic, clinical, laboratory and treatment data were considered as possible risk factors for HIV-SN, and results were compared with data obtained in the same clinic in 1993 and 2001. RESULTS: One hundred patients were screened. The prevalence of HIV-SN was 42%, which was unchanged since 2001 (44%) despite a significant reduction in the use of dNRTIs. HIV-SN remained much more common than in 1993 (42% vs 13%; P<0.0001). The only independent associations with HIV-SN in 2006 were increasing patient age and a history of exposure to either stavudine or indinavir. This compares with 1993 when neuropathy was increased in those with Mycobacterium avium complex infection, and 2001 when patient age and use of stavudine and didanosine were the independent associations with HIV-SN in this clinic. CONCLUSIONS: HIV-SN remained common among ambulatory patients in 2006 (42% prevalence) despite a significant reduction in the use of dNRTIs. In addition to patient age and stavudine exposure, indinavir use may be a risk factor for HIV-SN.

Antiretroviral use and other risks for HIV-associated neuropathies in an international cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the association between specific nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors and sensory neuropathies (SNs) and define the modifying roles of hepatitis C (HCV), vitamin B12 deficiency, and impaired glucose tolerance. METHODS: The authors conducted a prospective cohort study of 147 HIV-infected adults at two sites chosen to emphasize demographic differences. Standardized assessments included detailed antiretroviral histories, neurologic examinations, skin biopsies for epidermal nerve quantitation, and quantitative sensory testing. RESULTS: There were significant differences between subjects at Johns Hopkins University (JHU) and Monash University (MU) in gender, race, HIV transmission route, and HCV seroprevalence. Symptomatic SN was present in 49% at JHU and 55% at MU (chi2 = 4.02, p = 0.134) and was significantly more common in those at least age 40 than younger patients (odds ratio [OR] = 2.87, 95% CI = 1.27, 6.49). After adjusting for site, age, and CD4 cell count, exposure to didanosine (ddI) or stavudine (d4T) was associated with an significantly increased likelihood of symptomatic SN (ddI: OR = 3.21, 95% CI: 1.56, 6.60; d4T: OR = 7.66, 95% CI: 2.89, 20.33). Plasma HIV RNA, lactate, and HCV were not associated with SN. Quantitative vibratory testing identified neuropathy with a positive predictive value of 76% and epidermal nerve fiber densities 59%. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to stavudine and didanosine was significantly associated with a heightened risk for symptomatic sensory neuropathy. Reduced vibration thresholds and epidermal nerve fiber densities had the highest diagnostic efficiency of the laboratory indicators of neuropathy examined, but were relatively insensitive in isolation.

Measles virus hemagglutinin protein expressed in transgenic lettuce induces neutralising antibodies in mice following mucosal vaccination.

Plant-made oral vaccines have the potential to overcome many of the limitations of traditional vaccines. Here we report on progress towards a lettuce-made measles vaccine. Lettuce is a palatable species which exhibits rapid growth in contained hydroponic systems and produces negligible quantities of toxins. Measles virus hemagglutinin (MV-H) protein was successfully expressed in transgenic lettuce and found to be immunogenic in mice. Lettuce extracts containing MV-H protein induced MV neutralising antibodies following intraperitoneal injection and intranasal inoculation of mice. Using a sequential prime-boost strategy in which mice were vaccinated with MV-H DNA followed by an orally delivered freeze-dried MV-H lettuce formulation a 10-fold increased in MV-specific IgG titers was observed relative to mice vaccinated with control lettuce formulations (p=0.05). MV-H protein was stable in freeze-dried lettuce for up to 13 months at room temperature, and survived at least a week at temperatures as high as 50 degrees C. This research represents a significant step towards the development of measles vaccine formulation that is effective, temperature-stable, easy to administer in a resource-poor setting and amenable to large scale manufacture.

Crude saponins improve the immune response to an oral plant-made measles vaccine.

Millions of people live in areas where infectious diseases, such as measles, are endemic and resources are scarce. Heat-stable vaccines that are delivered orally will greatly enhance vaccination programs in these areas. A stumbling block in the development of oral vaccines is the availability of safe and effective mucosal adjuvants, especially for use with subunit vaccines. The experiments presented here examine the ability of CTB/CT, LT(R192G) and crude Quillaja saponin extracts to stimulate MV-specific immune responses in mice, following oral immunisation with plant-made measles virus hemagglutinin (MV-H) protein. LT(R192G) and crude saponin extracts both functioned as potent mucosal adjuvants when ad-mixed with plant-made MV-H protein, and were more effective than CTB/CT. MV-H protein supplemented with saponin extract induced the strongest MV-specific responses, in the greatest number of mice. Crude saponins are routinely used by the food and beverage industry at concentrations greater than those required for adjuvanticity, and as such, they have a better safety profile than bacterial enterotoxins. This study demonstrates their potential as adjuvants for use with oral plant-made vaccines.

The development of a plant-based vaccine for measles.

Plant-based vaccination strategies have the potential to overcome the limitations of the current measles vaccine. The measles virus hemagglutinin (MV-H) protein has been expressed in tobacco. Oral immunisation of mice with plant-derived MV-H protein resulted in MV-specific antibodies and secretory IgA, indicative of humoral and mucosal immune responses. In addition, boosting with oral plant-derived MV-H protein following a MV-H DNA prime, resulted in a greater response than could be induced with either vaccine alone. Collectively, this research represents a significant step towards an effective oral measles vaccine that would be temperature-stable, easy to administer and amenable to inexpensive manufacture.

Chlamydia pneumoniae in HIV-infected patients and controls assessed by a novel whole blood interferon-gamma assay, serology and PCR.

Chlamydia pneumoniae seropositivity is associated with cardiovascular disease and HIV infection. Cell-mediated immune responses are important for control of C. pneumoniae, and such responses may be impaired in HIV-infected patients. An assay for detection of interferon (IFN)-gamma in whole blood stimulated with C. pneumoniae antigen was developed and studied in HIV-infected patients and uninfected controls. Among 34 HIV-infected patients, none had an IFN-gamma response to C. pneumoniae antigen, compared with five of 32 healthy controls (p < 0.001). Fewer HIV-infected individuals elicited a serum IgG response when tested with a commercial enzyme immunoassay (p 0.009), but this was not so for serum IgA (p 0.12). Additionally, the IFN-gamma and antibody assays showed a trend towards a bivariate response in normal controls. This indicates that cellular and antibody responses against C. pneumoniae may be mutually exclusive, with potential implications for the role of this organism in the genesis of cardiovascular disease in both immunocompetent and HIV-infected populations.

Risk factors for acquisition of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) by trauma patients in the intensive care unit.

In a previous study in the intensive care unit (ICU) of the Alfred Hospital, Melbourne, Australia, it was demonstrated that trauma patients were at particular risk of becoming colonized by methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). We examined risk factors for MRSA acquisition in these patients using a cohort study comparing the 31 patients who acquired MRSA with 65 who did not. Data collected included ICU length of stay (LOS), mechanism of trauma, site of injury, type of surgery, trauma severity and antibiotic usage. Odds ratios (OR) were determined and adjusted for LOS. LOS in the ICU was a significant univariate predictor of MRSA acquisition (OR 13.7). When adjusted for LOS, mechanism of trauma (OR 10.4), laparotomy (OR 6.3) and administration of ticarcillin/clavulanic acid (OR 4.5) or glycopeptides (OR 5.9) remained significant. We confirmed our previous finding that LOS was associated with MRSA acquisition. Receipt of antibiotics correlated with reported literature. Novel associations were road trauma as a mechanism and laparotomy.

Control of endemic MRSA-what is the evidence? A personal view.

Although there is extensive literature on the control of MRSA, when that concerning epidemics is excluded, only a limited amount remains regarding the control of endemic MRSA. Several guidelines have been recently published recommending stringent control measures, which are often suggested based on their success in controlling MRSA outbreaks in hospitals with few MRSA or in containing MRSA cases introduced into a hospital with no MRSA. In these settings, multiple measures are usually introduced with apparently successful results. However, results may not be generalizable to other settings and we do not know the minimum effective measures required for MRSA containment. This paper aims critically to review the literature to determine whether evidence exists for the value of the infection control measures that are widely recommended in the endemic setting. Much of this literature is based on observational studies, with few randomized, controlled trials having been conducted. More well-designed studies are required before many of the principles on which we build infection control programmes can be regarded as evidence based.

Cytomegalovirus viral load monitoring after allogeneic bone marrow transplantation in patients receiving antiviral prophylaxis.

Cytomegalovirus viral load measurement is a powerful new tool for monitoring of CMV disease; however, the optimal strategy for use is unknown. Weekly plasma CMV viral loads and CMV-related outcomes were monitored in 46 consecutive allogeneic bone marrow transplantation (BMT) recipients receiving standardised antiviral prophylaxis. A total of 412 CMV viral loads were quantitated in the first 100 days post transplantation with 77 positive samples (19%) in 20 patients (43%). No patient with all negative CMV viral load results developed CMV disease. Two of three patients with highly positive CMV viral loads (first positive < or =30 days post transplant, maximum viral load > or =5000 copies/ml, and > or =50% of samples positive) developed CMV disease. A total of 17 patients with positive CMV viral loads, who did not meet the criteria for highly positive, did not develop CMV disease. CMV viral load detection was higher in recipients who were CMV sero-positive. In conclusion, CMV disease did not occur in the setting of a persistently negative CMV viral load. A positive CMV viral load result occurred commonly after allogeneic BMT, even in patients receiving antiviral prophylaxis.

Clinical, microbiological, and economic benefit of a change in antibiotic prophylaxis for cardiac surgery.

Vancomycin and rifampicin replaced cephazolin as antibiotic prophylaxis for coronary artery bypass surgery at our institution. Following this intervention, there was a significant decrease (P < .001) in the surgical-site infection rate from 10.5 (95% confidence interval, 8.2 to 13.3) to 4.9 (95% confidence interval, 3.2 to 7.1) infections per 100 procedures. An estimated $576,655 (Australian) was saved between two 12-month periods.

Quantification of mitochondrial DNA in peripheral blood mononuclear cells and subcutaneous fat using real-time polymerase chain reaction.

BACKGROUND: With decreased rates of HIV mortality and disease progression attributable to treatment with nucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), attention has now become focused on the toxicities of these forms of treatment. It is believed NRTIs cause a decrease in mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) synthesis due to their inhibition of DNA polymerase gamma. This hypothesis is supported by in vitro data from muscle biopsies and human lymphoblastic cell lines. The resulting mitochondrial toxicity is thought to manifest itself in a variety of clinical symptoms including fatigue, fat wasting and peripheral neuropathy. A non-invasive test of mitochondrial toxicity is needed to assess toxicity and optimise HIV treatment strategies. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) and subcutaneous fat could be ideal and accessible sources of mtDNA for examining toxicity. OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this study were (a) to develop an assay to quantify the mtDNA copy number of PBMC and obtain reproducible results and (b) to establish the utility of subcutaneous fat as a source of mtDNA for quantification. STUDY DESIGN: PBMC were isolated from blood by centrifugation over Ficoll-Paque and subcutaneous fat was obtained from two 3 mm punch skin biopsies. Following DNA extraction, the mtDNA copy number in each sample was quantified by real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR). RESULTS: The real-time PCR assay was found to generate consistent and reproducible results with replicates of samples undertaken within the same run, and in two or more different runs, having a mean coefficient of variation of 11.3 and 17.2%, respectively. PBMC and subcutaneous fat contained 409+/-148 and 2042+/-391 copies of mtDNA per cell, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: From the work carried out it can be concluded that firstly, the real-time PCR assay generates consistent and reproducible results, and secondly that mtDNA can be extracted and quantified from PBMC and subcutaneous fat.

Does plasma HIV RNA predict outcome in a cohort of treated HIV-infected individuals followed over 3 years?

BACKGROUND: Despite reductions in AIDS illness and mortality, it is increasingly apparent that a significant proportion of individuals treated with combination antiretroviral (cARV) therapy have continuing or recrudescent HIV RNA in plasma. The predictive value of plasma HIV RNA in treated individual remains uncertain and rates of and risk factors for adverse outcomes such as hospitalisation, opportunistic infections and deaths are needed. OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this study were to establish a retrospective cohort of individuals treated with cARVs, to assess factors associated with detectable HIV RNA and to determine rates of and risk factors for hospitalisation, opportunistic infection and mortality over 3 years of follow-up. STUDY DESIGN: All individuals treated at The Alfred Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria between January and June 1997 who had had plasma HIV RNA measured were included in the retrospective cohort. Clinical, virological and hospitalisation data were recorded and validated by cross-reference with electronically stored laboratory, hospital activity and state notification databases. Outcome was assessed at October 2000. RESULTS: Amongst the 555 individuals tested, 438 (60.7%) had detectable (>500 copies/ml) HIV RNA (bDNA assay, version 2) at baseline. The overall mortality rate was 5.5 per 100 person years; the AIDS rate 1.99 per 100 person years and hospitalisation rate 16.4 per 100 person years. Risk factors for death in this population identified by univariate analysis were HIV RNA concentration at baseline and at follow-up October 2000, nadir and most recent CD4 lymphocyte number, not receiving cARV as initial treatment, total number of ARV agents and number of changes in ARV per year, developing AIDS and being hospitalised during follow-up. In a multivariate model, the most recent CD4 lymphocyte number, the number of different ARVs per year and having more than one hospitalisation remained predictive of death. CONCLUSIONS: HIV RNA remained detectable in the majority (60.7%) of this treatment-experienced population over 3 years, yet mortality rate remained relatively low at 5.5 per 100 person years. Factors associated with death were immunological (CD4 lymphocyte number) and treatment related (numbers of changes of ARV and hospitalisation) rather than virological (HIV RNA) in this cohort. We believe hospitalisation rates may be a useful marker of HIV disease in cARV treated populations and may identify groups at risk of poorer outcome and in need of intervention.