Development and validation of a lifetime prediction model for incident type 2 diabetes in patients with established cardiovascular disease: the CVD2DM model.

AIMS: Identifying patients with established cardiovascular disease (CVD) who are at high risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) may allow for early interventions, reducing the development of T2D and associated morbidity. The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate the CVD2DM model to estimate the 10-year and lifetime risks of T2D in patients with established CVD. METHODS AND RESULTS: Sex-specific, competing risk-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were derived in 19 281 participants with established CVD and without diabetes at baseline from the UK Biobank. The core model's pre-specified predictors were age, current smoking, family history of diabetes mellitus, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, and HDL cholesterol. The extended model also included HbA1c. The model was externally validated in 3481 patients from the UCC-SMART study. During a median follow-up of 12.2 years (interquartile interval 11.3-13.1), 1628 participants with established CVD were diagnosed with T2D in the UK Biobank. External validation c-statistics were 0.79 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76-0.82] for the core model and 0.81 (95% CI 0.78-0.84) for the extended model. Calibration plots showed agreement between predicted and observed 10-year risk of T2D. CONCLUSION: The 10-year and lifetime risks of T2D can be estimated with the CVD2DM model in patients with established CVD, using readily available clinical predictors. The model would benefit from further validation across diverse ethnic groups to enhance its applicability. Informing patients about their T2D risk could motivate them further to adhere to a healthy lifestyle.

In this study, we developed and externally validated the CVD2DM model, which predicts the 10-year and lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in individuals who already have cardiovascular disease (CVD). The key findings are as follows: The CVD2DM model is the first model to estimate the risk of developing T2D applicable in all patients with atherosclerotic CVD. The model is based on several factors available in clinical practice, such as age, fasting plasma glucose, family history of diabetes, and body mass index. It was developed in 19 281 patients from the UK Biobank. The model performed well in 3481 patients from the UCC-SMART study.Informing patients about their T2D risk could motivate them further to adhere to a healthy lifestyle.

Lifetime and 10-year cardiovascular risk prediction in individuals with type 1 diabetes: The LIFE-T1D model.

AIMS: To develop and externally validate the LIFE-T1D model for the estimation of lifetime and 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals with type 1 diabetes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A sex-specific competing risk-adjusted Cox proportional hazards model was derived in individuals with type 1 diabetes without prior CVD from the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR), using age as the time axis. Predictors included age at diabetes onset, smoking status, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, glycated haemoglobin level, estimated glomerular filtration rate, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, albuminuria and retinopathy. The model was externally validated in the Danish Funen Diabetes Database (FDDB) and the UK Biobank. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 11.8 years (interquartile interval 6.1-17.1 years), 4608 CVD events and 1316 non-CVD deaths were observed in the NDR (n = 39 756). The internal validation c-statistic was 0.85 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.84-0.85) and the external validation c-statistics were 0.77 (95% CI 0.74-0.81) for the FDDB (n = 2709) and 0.73 (95% CI 0.70-0.77) for the UK Biobank (n = 1022). Predicted risks were consistent with the observed incidence in the derivation and both validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The LIFE-T1D model can estimate lifetime risk of CVD and CVD-free life expectancy in individuals with type 1 diabetes without previous CVD. This model can facilitate individualized CVD prevention among individuals with type 1 diabetes. Validation in additional cohorts will improve future clinical implementation.

HbA1c and fasting plasma glucose levels are equally related to incident cardiovascular risk in a high CVD risk population without known diabetes.

OBJECTIVES: Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) is associated with increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Whether screen-detected T2DM, based on fasting plasma glucose (FPG) or on HbA1c, are associated with different risks of incident CVD in high-risk populations and which one is preferable for diabetes screening in these populations, remains unclear. METHODS: 8,274 high-risk CVD participants were included from the UCC-SMART cohort. Participants were divided into groups based on prior T2DM diagnosis, and combinations of elevated/non-elevated FPG and HbA1c (cut-offs at 7 mmol/L and 48 mmol/mol, respectively): Group 0: known T2DM; group 1: elevated FPG/HbA1c; group 2: elevated FPG, non-elevated HbA1c; group 3: non-elevated FPG, elevated HbA1c; group 1 + 2: elevated FPG, regardless of HbA1c; group 1 + 3: elevated HbA1c, regardless of FPG; and group 4 (reference), non-elevated FPG/HbA1c. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 6.3 years (IQR 3.3-9.8), 712 cardiovascular events occurred. Compared to the reference (group 4), group 0 was at increased risk (HR 1.40; 95 % CI 1.16-1.68), but group 1 (HR 1.16; 95 % CI 0.62-2.18), 2 (HR 1.18; 95 % CI 0.84-1.67), 3 (HR 0.61; 95 % CI 0.15-2.44), 1 + 2 (HR 1.17; 95 % CI 0.86-1.59) and 1 + 3 (HR 1.01; 95 % CI 0.57-1.79) were not. However, spline interpolation showed a linearly increasing risk with increasing HbA1c/FPG, but did not allow for identification of other cut-off points. CONCLUSIONS: Based on current cut-offs, FPG and HbA1c at screening were equally related to incident CVD in high-risk populations without known T2DM. Hence, neither FPG, nor HbA1c, is preferential for diabetes screening in this population with respect to risk of incident CVD.

Generalisability of trials on antithrombotic treatment intensification in patients with cardiovascular disease.

OBJECTIVE: Assessment of generalisability of guideline-informing trials on antithrombotic treatment intensification to real-world patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS: Inclusion and exclusion criteria of the Cardiovascular Outcomes for People Using Anticoagulation Strategies (COMPASS), Clopidogrel for High Atherothrombotic Risk and Ischemic Stabilization, Management and Avoidance (CHARISMA), Prevention of Cardiovascular events in Patients with Prior Heart Attack Using Ticagrelor Compared to Placebo on a Background of Aspirin-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (PEGASUS-TIMI) and Dual Antiplatelet Therapy (DAPT) study were applied to coronary artery disease (CAD) and/or peripheral artery disease (PAD) patients from Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of Arterial Disease (UCC-SMART) to determine real-world eligibility. Eligible and ineligible patients were compared on baseline characteristics, cardiovascular events, major bleeding and mortality. RESULTS: Eligibility ranged from 11%-94% for CAD to 75%-90% for patients with PAD. Cardiovascular, bleeding and mortality risks were higher in COMPASS-eligible patients with CAD (rate ratios (RR) 1.98 (95% CI 1.74 to 2.26), 2.02 (95% CI 1.47 to 2.78) and 3.11 (95% CI 2.71 to 3.57), respectively) and CHARISMA-eligible patients (RR 1.51 (95% CI 1.12 to 2.06), 2.25 (95% CI 1.01 to 6.21) and 4.43 (95% CI 2.79 to 7.51), respectively), and lower in COMPASS-eligible patients with PAD (RR 0.45 (95% CI 0.36 to 0.56), 0.29 (95% CI 0.18 to 0.46) and 0.45 (95% CI 0.38 to 0.54), respectively) and DAPT-eligible patients with CAD (RR CVD 0.49 (95% CI 0.34 to 0.69) and mortality 0.67 (95% CI 0.48 to 0.94)) than ineligible patients. After adjustment for trial eligibility criteria, only higher cardiovascular and mortality risks in COMPASS-eligible patients with CAD and lower cardiovascular risks in CHARISMA-eligible and DAPT-eligible patients persisted with CAD. CONCLUSION: A large proportion of contemporary CVD patients would be eligible for intensified antithrombotic treatment trials, with mostly similar adjusted event risks to ineligible patients. Trial-based guideline recommendations are largely applicable to real-world patients.

Cost-Effectiveness of Performing Reference Ultrasonography in Patients with Deep Vein Thrombosis.

BACKGROUND: The diagnosis of recurrent ipsilateral deep vein thrombosis (DVT) with compression ultrasonography (CUS) may be hindered by residual intravascular obstruction after previous DVT. A reference CUS, an additional ultrasound performed at anticoagulant discontinuation, may improve the diagnostic work-up of suspected recurrent ipsilateral DVT by providing baseline images for future comparison. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of routinely performing reference CUS in DVT patients. METHODS: Patient-level data (n = 96) from a prospective management study (Theia study; NCT02262052) and claims data were used in a decision analytic model to compare 12 scenarios for diagnostic management of suspected recurrent ipsilateral DVT. Estimated health care costs and mortality due to misdiagnosis, recurrent venous thromboembolism, and bleeding during the first year of follow-up after presentation with suspected recurrence were compared. RESULTS: All six scenarios including reference CUS had higher estimated 1-year costs (€1,763-€1,913) than the six without reference CUS (€1,192-€1,474). Costs were higher because reference CUS results often remained unused, as 20% of patients (according to claims data) would return with suspected recurrent DVT. Estimated mortality was comparable in scenarios with (14.8-17.9 per 10,000 patients) and without reference CUS (14.0-18.5 per 10,000). None of the four potentially most desirable scenarios included reference CUS. CONCLUSION: One-year health care costs of diagnostic strategies for suspected recurrent ipsilateral DVT including reference CUS are higher compared to strategies without reference CUS, without mortality benefit. These results can inform policy-makers regarding use of health care resources during follow-up after DVT. From a cost-effectiveness perspective, the findings do not support the routine application of reference CUS.

Effect of adipose tissue quantity and dysfunction on the risk of cancer in individuals with and without type 2 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the role of waist circumference and metabolic dysfunction in the risk of cancer in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and to compare this to individuals without T2D. METHODS: Individuals with (n = 1925) and without T2D (n = 10,204) were included from the UCC-SMART cohort. Incident cancer diagnoses were obtained by linkage with the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Metabolic dysfunction was defined as ≥ 3 adapted NCEP ATP-III metabolic syndrome criteria. The effects of waist circumference and metabolic dysfunction on cancer were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for confounders. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 8.3 years (IQR 4.2-13.1), 1740 individuals were diagnosed with cancer. Incidence rates of total cancer were 19.3 and 15.5/1000 person-years for individuals with and without T2D, respectively. In individuals without T2D, a higher waist circumference was associated with an increased risk of colorectal (per standard deviation: HR 1.23; 95%CI 1.03-1.46), urinary tract (HR 1.28; 95%CI 1.05-1.56) and total cancer (HR 1.06; 95%CI 1.02-1.13). Metabolic dysfunction was related to an increased risk of colorectal (HR 1.35; 95%CI 1.01-1.82), lung (HR 1.37; 95%CI 1.07-1.75) and total cancer (HR 1.13; 95%CI 1.01-1.25) in individuals without T2D. In individuals with T2D, no significant associations were found. CONCLUSION: Incidence rates of cancer are higher among individuals with T2D. However, higher waist circumference and metabolic dysfunction are only associated with an increased cancer risk in patients without T2D. These findings provide novel insights into the role of metabolic dysfunction in the occurrence of cancer.

Variability in benefit from intensive insulin therapy on cardiovascular events in individuals with type 1 diabetes: A post hoc analysis of the DCCT/EDIC study.

AIM: To evaluate presence of treatment effect heterogeneity of intensive insulin therapy (INT) on occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in individuals with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: In participants from the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial/Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications (DCCT/EDIC) study, individual treatment effect of INT (≥3 daily insulin injections/insulin pump therapy) versus conventional therapy (once/twice daily insulin) on the risk of MACE was estimated using a penalized Cox regression model including treatment-by-covariate interaction terms. RESULTS: In 1441 participants, 120 first MACE events were observed and 1279 individuals (89%) were predicted to benefit from INT with regard to MACE risk reduction. The study population was divided into four groups based on predicted treatment effect: one group with no predicted benefit and three tertiles with predicted treatment benefit. The median absolute reduction in 30-year risk of MACE across groups of predicted treatment effect ranged from -0.2% (i.e. risk increase; interquartile range [IQR] -0.1% to -0.3%) in the group with no predicted benefit to 6.6% (i.e. risk reduction; IQR 3.8%-10.9%; number needed to treat 15) in the highest tertile of predicted benefit. The observed benefit of preventing microvascular complications was stable across all subgroups of predicted MACE benefit. CONCLUSIONS: Although INT reduces the risk of MACE in the majority of individuals with type 1 diabetes, benefit varies substantially. These individual differences in the effect of INT underline the necessity for a better understanding of the individual response to intensive treatment.

The upper extremity postthrombotic syndrome score: an international Delphi consensus study to determine the score's functional disability component.

Background: In upper extremity thrombosis research, the occurrence of upper extremity postthrombotic syndrome (UE-PTS) is commonly used as the main outcome parameter. However, there is currently no reporting standard or a validated method to assess UE-PTS presence and severity. In a recent Delphi study, consensus was reached on a preliminary UE-PTS score, combining 5 symptoms, 3 signs, and the inclusion of a functional disability score. However, no consensus was reached on which functional disability score to be included. Objectives: The aim of the current Delphi consensus study was to determine the specific type of functional disability score to finalize UE-PTS score. Methods: This Delphi project was designed as a three-round study using open text questions, statements with 7-point Likert scales, and multiple-choice questions. The CREDES recommendations for Delphi studies were applied. In this context, a systematic review was conducted before the start of the Delphi rounds to identify the available functional disability scores as available in the literature and present these to the expert panel. Results: Thirty-five of 47 initially invited international experts from multiple disciplines completed all the Delphi rounds. In the second round, consensus was reached on the incorporation of the quick disabilities of the arm, shoulder, and hand (QuickDASH) in the UE-PTS score, rendering the third round obsolete. Conclusion: Consensus was reached that the QuickDASH should be incorporated in the UE-PTS score. The UE-PTS score will need to be validated in a large cohort of patients with upper extremity thrombosis before it can be used in clinical practice and future research.

Cohort profile: the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of Arterial Disease (UCC-SMART) Study-an ongoing prospective cohort study of patients at high cardiovascular risk in the Netherlands.

PURPOSE: The Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of Arterial Disease (UCC-SMART) Study is an ongoing prospective single-centre cohort study with the aim to assess important determinants and the prognosis of cardiovascular disease progression. This article provides an update of the rationale, design, included patients, measurements and findings from the start in 1996 to date. PARTICIPANTS: The UCC-SMART Study includes patients aged 18-90 years referred to the University Medical Center Utrecht, the Netherlands, for management of cardiovascular disease (CVD) or severe cardiovascular risk factors. Since September 1996, a total of 14 830 patients have been included. Upon inclusion, patients undergo a standardised screening programme, including questionnaires, vital signs, laboratory measurements, an ECG, vascular ultrasound of carotid arteries and aorta, ankle-brachial index and ultrasound measurements of adipose tissue, kidney size and intima-media thickness. Outcomes of interest are collected through annual questionnaires and adjudicated by an endpoint committee. FINDINGS TO DATE: By May 2022, the included patients contributed to a total follow-up time of over 134 000 person-years. During follow-up, 2259 patients suffered a vascular endpoint (including non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke and vascular death) and 2794 all-cause deaths, 943 incident cases of diabetes and 2139 incident cases of cancer were observed up until January 2020. The UCC-SMART cohort contributed to over 350 articles published in peer-reviewed journals, including prediction models recommended by the 2021 European Society of Cardiology CVD prevention guidelines. FUTURE PLANS: The UCC-SMART Study guarantees an infrastructure for research in patients at high cardiovascular risk. The cohort will continue to include about 600 patients yearly and follow-up will be ongoing to ensure an up-to-date cohort in accordance with current healthcare and scientific knowledge. In the near future, UCC-SMART will be enriched by echocardiography, and a food frequency questionnaire at baseline enabling the assessment of associations between nutrition and CVD and diabetes.

External validation of bleeding risk models for the prediction of long-term bleeding risk in patients with established cardiovascular disease.

OBJECTIVE: The long-term predictive performance of existing bleeding risk models in patients with various manifestations of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is not well known. This study aims to assess and compare the performance of relevant existing bleeding risk models in estimating the long-term risk of major bleeding in a cohort of patients with established CVD. METHODS: Seven existing bleeding risk models (PRECISE-DAPT, DAPT, Ducrocq et al, de Vries et al, S2TOP-BLEED, Intracranial B2LEED3S and HAS-BLED) were identified and externally validated in 7,249 patients with established CVD included in the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-second manifestations of arterial disease study. Predictive performance was assessed in terms of discrimination and calibration, both at 10 years and the original prediction horizon of the models. Major bleeding was defined as Bleeding Academic Research Consortium type 3 or 5. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 8.4 years (interquartile range 4.5-12.5), a total of 233 (3.2%) major bleeding events occurred. C-statistics for discrimination at 10 years ranged from 0.53 (95%CI 0.49-0.57) to 0.64 (95%CI 0.60-0.68). Calibration plots after recalibration to 10 years showed best agreement between predicted and observed bleeding risk for De Vries et al, S2TOP-BLEED, DAPT and PRECISE-DAPT. CONCLUSIONS: The performance of existing bleeding risk models to predict long-term bleeding in patients with CVD varied. Discrimination and calibration were best for the models of de Vries et al, S2TOP-BLEED, DAPT and PRECISE-DAPT. Of these, recalibrated models requiring the least predictors may be preferred for use to personalize prevention with antithrombotic therapy.

Thoracic outlet syndrome (TROTS) registry: A study protocol for the primary upper extremity deep venous thrombosis section.

INTRODUCTION: There is a lack of comprehensive and uniform data on primary upper extremity deep venous thrombosis (pUEDVT). pUEDVT includes venous thoracic outlet syndrome related upper extremity deep venous thrombosis (UEDVT) and idiopathic UEDVT. Research on these conditions has been hampered by their rarity, lack of uniform diagnostic criteria, and heterogeneity in therapeutic strategies. To improve current research data collection using input of all various pUEDVT treating medical specialists, we initiated the ThoRacic OuTlet Syndrome (TROTS) registry. The aim of the TROTS registry is to a) collect extensive data on all pUEDVT patients through a predefined protocol, b) give insight in the long term outcome using patient reported outcome measures, c) create guidance in the diagnostic and clinical management of these conditions, and thereby d) help provide content for future research. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The TROTS registry was designed as an international prospective longitudinal observational registry for data collection on pUEDVT patients. All pUEDVT patients, regardless of treatment received, can be included in the registry after informed consent is obtained. All relevant data regarding the initial presentation, diagnostics, treatment, and follow-up will be collected prospectively in an electronic case report form. In addition, a survey containing general questions, a Health-related Quality of Life questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L), and Functional Disability questionnaire (Quick-DASH) will be sent periodically (at the time of inclusion, one and two years after inclusion, and every five years after inclusion) to the participant. The registry protocol was approved by the Medical Ethical Review Board and registered in the Netherlands Trial Register under Trial-ID NL9680. The data generated by the registry will be used for future research on pUEDVT and published in peer reviewed journals. CONCLUSION: TROTS registry data will be used to further establish the optimal management of pUEDVT and lay the foundation for future research and guidelines.

Cardiovascular risk and lifetime benefit from preventive treatment in type 2 diabetes: A post hoc analysis of the CAPTURE study.

AIM: To assess the potential gain in the number of life-years free of a (recurrent) cardiovascular disease (CVD) event with optimal cardiovascular risk management (CVRM) and initiation of glucose-lowering agents with proven cardiovascular benefit in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). MATERIALS AND METHODS: 9,416 individuals with T2D from the CAPTURE study, a non-interventional, cross-sectional, multinational study, were included. The diabetes lifetime-perspective prediction model was used for calculating individual 10-year and lifetime CVD risk. The distribution of preventive medication use was assessed according to predicted CVD risk and stratified for history of CVD. For the estimation of absolute individual benefit from lifelong preventive treatment, including optimal CVRM and the addition of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) and sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT-2is), the model was combined with treatment effects from current evidence. RESULTS: GLP-1 RA or SGLT-2i use did not greatly differ between patients with and without CVD history, while use of blood pressure-lowering medication, statins and aspirin was more frequent in patients with CVD. Mean (standard deviation [SD]) lifetime benefit from optimal CVRM was 3.9 (3.0) and 1.3 (1.9) years in patients with and without established CVD, respectively. Further addition of a GLP-1 RA and an SGLT-2i in patients with CVD gave an added mean (SD) lifetime benefit of 1.2 (0.6) years. CONCLUSIONS: Life-years gained free of (recurrent) CVD by optimal CVRM and the addition of a GLP-1 RA or aSGLT-2i is dependent on baseline CVD status. These results aid individualizing prevention and promote shared decision-making in patients with T2D.

Visceral adipose tissue quantity and dysfunction and the occurrence of major bleeding in patients with established cardiovascular disease.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the association between both visceral fat quantity and adipose tissue dysfunction, and major bleeding in patients with established cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Patients from the Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease study with established cardiovascular disease were included. Visceral fat was measured using ultrasound and adipose tissue dysfunction was depicted using metabolic syndrome criteria (revised National Cholesterol Education Program). Cox regression models were fitted to study the relation with major bleeding defined as Bleeding Academic Research Consortium (BARC) type 3 or 5, or International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis (ISTH) major bleeding. Sensitivity analyses were performed using C-reactive protein levels to reflect adipose tissue dysfunction. RESULTS: In 6927 patients during a median follow up of 9.2 years, a total of 237 BARC type 3 or 5 bleedings and 224 ISTH major bleedings were observed. Visceral fat quantity was not related to major bleeding (HR 1.01, 95%CI 0.88-1.16 for BARC type 3 or 5 bleeding and HR 1.00, 95%CI 0.87-1.15 for ISTH major bleeding), nor was metabolic syndrome (HR 0.97, 95%CI 0.75-1.26 for BARC type 3 or 5 bleeding and HR 0.98, 95%CI 0.75-1.28 for ISTH major bleeding). Sensitivity analyses using C-reactive protein levels showed similar results. No effect modification was observed by sex, antithrombotic therapy, presence of metabolic syndrome or diabetes. CONCLUSION: In patients with cardiovascular disease, no association was found between visceral fat quantity measured with ultrasound or measures of adipose tissue dysfunction and the risk of major bleeding, irrespective of antithrombotic agent use.

Shorter laboratory turnaround time is associated with shorter emergency department length of stay: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: A longer emergency department length of stay (EDLOS) is associated with poor outcomes. Shortening EDLOS is difficult, due to its multifactorial nature. A potential way to improve EDLOS is through shorter turnaround times for diagnostic testing. This study aimed to investigate whether a shorter laboratory turnaround time (TAT) and time to testing (TTT) were associated with a shorter EDLOS. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was performed, including all visits to the emergency department (ED) of an academic teaching hospital from 2017 to 2020 during which a standardized panel of laboratory tests had been ordered. TTT was calculated as the time from arrival in the ED to the ordering of laboratory testing. TAT was calculated as the time from test ordering to the reporting of the results, and was divided into a clinical and a laboratory stage. The outcome was EDLOS in minutes. The effect of TTT and TAT on EDLOS was estimated through a linear regression model. RESULTS: In total, 23,718 ED visits were included in the analysis. Median EDLOS was 199.0 minutes (interquartile range [IQR] 146.0-268.0). Median TTT was 7.0 minutes (IQR 2.0-12.0) and median TAT was 51.1 minutes (IQR 41.1-65.0). Both TTT and TAT were positively associated with EDLOS. The laboratory stage comprised a median of 69% (IQR 59-78%) of total TAT. CONCLUSION: Longer TTT and TAT are independently associated with longer EDLOS. As the laboratory stage predominantly determines TAT, it provides a promising target for interventions to reduce EDLOS and ED crowding.

Development and Validation of a Lifetime Risk Model for Kidney Failure and Treatment Benefit in Type 2 Diabetes: 10-Year and Lifetime Risk Prediction Models.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Individuals with type 2 diabetes are at a higher risk of developing kidney failure. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a decision support tool for estimating 10-year and lifetime risks of kidney failure in individuals with type 2 diabetes as well as estimating individual treatment effects of preventive medication. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: The prediction algorithm was developed in 707,077 individuals with prevalent and incident type 2 diabetes from the Swedish National Diabetes Register for 2002-2019. Two Cox proportional regression functions for kidney failure (first occurrence of kidney transplantation, long-term dialysis, or persistent eGFR <15 ml/min per 1.73 m2) and all-cause mortality as respective end points were developed using routinely available predictors. These functions were combined into life tables to calculate the predicted survival without kidney failure while using all-cause mortality as the competing outcome. The model was externally validated in 256,265 individuals with incident type 2 diabetes from the Scottish Care Information Diabetes database between 2004 and 2019. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 6.8 years (interquartile range, 3.2-10.6), 8004 (1%) individuals with type 2 diabetes in the Swedish National Diabetes Register cohort developed kidney failure, and 202,078 (29%) died. The model performed well, with c statistics for kidney failure of 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.88 to 0.90) for internal validation and 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.73 to 0.76) for external validation. Calibration plots showed good agreement in observed versus predicted 10-year risk of kidney failure for both internal and external validation. CONCLUSIONS: This study derived and externally validated a prediction tool for estimating 10-year and lifetime risks of kidney failure as well as life years free of kidney failure gained with preventive treatment in individuals with type 2 diabetes using easily available clinical predictors. PODCAST: This article contains a podcast at https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/www.asn-online.org/media/podcast/CJASN/2022_11_04_CJN05020422.mp3.

The readiness of public primary health care (PUSKESMAS) for cardiovascular services in Makasar city, Indonesia.

BACKGROUNDS: The increasing burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) has become a major challenge globally, including in Indonesia. Understanding the readiness of primary health care facilities is necessary to confront the challenge of providing access to quality CVD health care services. Our study aimed to provide information regarding readiness to deliver CVD health services in public primary health care namely Puskesmas. METHODS: The study questionnaire was adapted from the World Health Organization (WHO) Service Availability and Readiness Assessment (SARA), modified based on the package of essentials for non-communicable disease (PEN) and the Indonesian Ministry of health regulation. Data were collected from all Puskesmas facilities (N = 47) located in Makassar city. We analysed relevant data following the WHO-SARA manual to assess the readiness of Puskesmas to deliver CVD services. Human resources, diagnostic capacity, supporting equipment, essential medication, infrastructure and guidelines, and ambulatory services domain were assessed based on the availability of each tracer item in a particular domain. The mean domain score was calculated based on the availability of tracer items within each domain. Furthermore, the means of all domains' scores are expressed as an overall readiness index. Higher scores indicate greater readiness of Puskesmas to deliver CVD-related health care. RESULTS: Puskesmas delivers health promotion, disease prevention, and prompt diagnosis for cardiovascular-related diseases, including hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease (CHD), and stroke. Meanwhile, basic treatments were observed in the majority of the Puskesmas. Long-term care for hypertension and diabetes patients and rehabilitation for CHD and stroke were only observed in a few Puskesmas. The readiness score of Puskesmas to deliver CVD health care ranged from 60 to 86 for. Furthermore, there were 11 Puskesmas (23.4%) with a score below 75, indicating a sub-optimal readiness for delivering CVD health services. A shortage of essential medicines and a low capacity for diagnostic testing were the most noticeable shortcomings leading to suboptimal readiness for high-quality CVD health services. CONCLUSION: Close cooperation with the government and other related stakeholders is required to tackle the identified shortcomings, especially the continuous monitoring of adequate supplies of medicines and diagnostic tools to achieve better CVD care for patients in Indonesia.

Patients with diffuse idiopathic skeletal hyperostosis have an increased burden of thoracic aortic calcifications.

Objectives: DISH has been associated with increased coronary artery calcifications and incident ischaemic stroke. The formation of bone along the spine may share pathways with calcium deposition in the aorta. We hypothesized that patients with DISH have increased vascular calcifications. Therefore we aimed to investigate the presence and extent of DISH in relation to thoracic aortic calcification (TAC) severity. Methods: This cross-sectional study included 4703 patients from the Second Manifestation of ARTerial disease cohort, consisting of patients with cardiovascular events or risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Chest radiographs were scored for DISH using the Resnick criteria. Different severities of TAC were scored arbitrarily from no TAC to mild, moderate or severe TAC. Using multivariate logistic regression, the associations between DISH and TAC were analysed with adjustments for age, sex, BMI, diabetes, smoking status, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, cholesterol lowering drug usage, renal function and blood pressure. Results: A total of 442 patients (9.4%) had evidence of DISH and 1789 (38%) patients had TAC. The prevalence of DISH increased from 6.6% in the no TAC group to 10.8% in the mild, 14.3% in the moderate and 17.1% in the severe TAC group. After adjustments, DISH was significantly associated with the presence of TAC [odds ratio (OR) 1.46 [95% CI 1.17, 1.82)]. In multinomial analyses, DISH was associated with moderate TAC [OR 1.43 (95% CI 1.06, 1.93)] and severe TAC [OR 1.67 (95% CI 1.19, 2.36)]. Conclusions: Subjects with DISH have increased TACs, providing further evidence that patients with DISH have an increased burden of vascular calcifications.

Higher Arm Versus Lower Arm Systolic Blood Pressure and Cardiovascular Outcomes: a Meta-Analysis of Individual Participant Data From the INTERPRESS-IPD Collaboration.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines recommend measuring blood pressure (BP) in both arms, adopting the higher arm readings for diagnosis and management. Data to support this recommendation are lacking. We evaluated associations of higher and lower arm systolic BPs with diagnostic and treatment thresholds, and prognosis in hypertension, using data from the Inter-arm Blood Pressure Difference-Individual Participant Data Collaboration. METHODS: One-stage multivariable Cox regression models, stratified by study, were used to examine associations of higher or lower reading arm BPs with cardiovascular mortality, all-cause mortality, and cardiovascular events, in individual participant data meta-analyses pooled from 23 cohorts. Cardiovascular events were modelled for Framingham and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk scores. Model fit was compared throughout using Akaike information criteria. Proportions reclassified across guideline recommended intervention thresholds were also compared. RESULTS: We analyzed 53 172 participants: mean age 60 years; 48% female. Higher arm BP, compared with lower arm, reclassified 12% of participants at either 130 or 140 mm Hg systolic BP thresholds (both P<0.001). Higher arm BP models fitted better for all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and cardiovascular events (all P<0.001). Higher arm BP models better predicted cardiovascular events with Framingham and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk scores (both P<0.001) and reclassified 4.6% and 3.5% of participants respectively to higher risk categories compared with lower arm BPs). CONCLUSIONS: Using BP from higher instead of lower reading arms reclassified 12% of people over thresholds used to diagnose hypertension. All prediction models performed better when using the higher arm BP. Both arms should be measured for accurate diagnosis and management of hypertension. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: CRD42015031227.

The long-term effect of mTOR inhibition on lipid and glucose metabolism in tuberous sclerosis complex: data from the Dutch TSC registry.

BACKGROUND: MTOR inhibition is an effective treatment for many manifestations of tuberous sclerosis complex. Because mTOR inhibition is a disease modifying therapy, lifelong use will most likely be necessary. This study addresses the long-term effects of mTOR inhibitors on lipid and glucose metabolism and aims to provide better insight in the incidence and time course of these metabolic adverse effects in treated TSC patients. METHODS: All patients who gave informed consent for the nationwide TSC Registry and were ever treated with mTOR inhibitors (sirolimus and/or everolimus) were included. Lipid profiles, HbA1c and medication were analysed in all patients before and during mTOR inhibitor treatment. RESULTS: We included 141 patients, the median age was 36 years, median use of mTOR inhibitors 5.1 years (aimed serum levels 3.0-5.0 µg/l). Total cholesterol, LDL- and HDL-cholesterol levels at baseline were similar to healthy reference data. After start of mTOR inhibition therapy, total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol and triglycerides increased significantly and were higher compared to healthy reference population. Mean total cholesterol levels increased by 1.0 mmol/L after 3-6 months of mTOR inhibition therapy but did not increase further during follow-up. In this study, 2.5% (3/118) of patients developed diabetes (defined as an HbA1c ≥ 48 mmol/mol) during a median follow-up of 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Hypercholesterolemia is a frequent side effect of mTOR inhibition in TSC patients, and predominantly occurs within the first year of treatment. Although hyperglycemia is a frequent side effect in other indications for mTOR inhibition, incidence of diabetes mellitus in TSC patients was only 2.5%. This may reflect the difference of mTOR inhibition in patients with normal mTOR complex pathway function versus patients with overactive mTOR complex signaling due to a genetic defect (TSC patients).