Principles of risk decision-making.

Risk management decisions in public health require consideration of a number of complex, often conflicting factors. The aim of this review was to propose a set of 10 fundamental principles to guide risk decision-making. Although each of these principles is sound in its own right, the guidance provided by different principles might lead the decision-maker in different directions. For example, where the precautionary principle advocates for preemptive risk management action under situations of scientific uncertainty and potentially catastrophic consequences, the principle of risk-based decision-making encourages decision-makers to focus on established and modifiable risks, where a return on the investment in risk management is all but guaranteed in the near term. To evaluate the applicability of the 10 principles in practice, one needs to consider 10 diverse risk issues of broad concern and explore which of these principles are most appropriate in different contexts. The 10 principles presented here afford substantive insight into the process of risk management decision-making, although decision-makers will ultimately need to exercise judgment in reaching appropriate risk decisions, accounting for all of the scientific and extra-scientific factors relevant to the risk decision at hand.

Using expert judgments to improve chronic wasting disease risk management in Canada.

ABSTARCT Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a neurodegenerative, protein misfolding disease affecting cervids in North America in epidemic proportions. While the existence of CWD has been known for more than 40 years, risk management efforts to date have not been able to curtail the spread of this condition. An expert elicitation exercise was carried out in May 2011 to obtain the views of international experts on both the etiology of CWD and possible CWD risk management strategies. This study presents the results of the following three components of the elicitation exercise: (1) expert views of the most likely scenarios for the evolution of the CWD among cervid populations in Canada, (2) ranking analyses of the importance of direct and indirect transmission routes, and (3) rating analyses of CWD control measures in farmed and wild cervids. The implications of these findings for the development of CWD risk management strategies are described in a Canadian context.

Expert elicitation on the uncertainties associated with chronic wasting disease.

A high degree of uncertainty exists for chronic wasting disease (CWD) transmission factors in farmed and wild cervids. Evaluating the factors is important as it helps to inform future risk management strategies. Expert opinion is often used to assist decision making in a number of health, science, and technology domains where data may be sparse or missing. Using the "Classical Model" of elicitation, a group of experts was asked to estimate the most likely values for several risk factors affecting CWD transmission. The formalized expert elicitation helped structure the issues and hence provide a rational basis for estimating some transmission risk factors for which evidence is lacking. Considered judgments regarding environmental transmission, latency of CWD transmission, management, and species barrier were provided by the experts. Uncertainties for many items were determined to be large, highlighting areas requiring more research. The elicited values may be used as surrogate values until research evidence becomes available.

A framework for the next generation of risk science.

OBJECTIVES: In 2011, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency initiated the NexGen project to develop a new paradigm for the next generation of risk science. METHODS: The NexGen framework was built on three cornerstones: the availability of new data on toxicity pathways made possible by fundamental advances in basic biology and toxicological science, the incorporation of a population health perspective that recognizes that most adverse health outcomes involve multiple determinants, and a renewed focus on new risk assessment methodologies designed to better inform risk management decision making. RESULTS: The NexGen framework has three phases. Phase I (objectives) focuses on problem formulation and scoping, taking into account the risk context and the range of available risk management decision-making options. Phase II (risk assessment) seeks to identify critical toxicity pathway perturbations using new toxicity testing tools and technologies, and to better characterize risks and uncertainties using advanced risk assessment methodologies. Phase III (risk management) involves the development of evidence-based population health risk management strategies of a regulatory, economic, advisory, community-based, or technological nature, using sound principles of risk management decision making. CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of a series of case study prototypes indicated that many aspects of the NexGen framework are already beginning to be adopted in practice.

Tinzaparin versus dalteparin for periprocedure prophylaxis of thromboembolic events in hemodialysis patients: a randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) is cleared predominantly by the kidneys and hence there is uncertainty about the safety of its use in hemodialysis (HD) patients. Our primary objective was to compare whether tinzaparin and dalteparin differentially accumulate in HD patients. STUDY DESIGN: Open-label randomized controlled trial. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: HD patients undergoing periprocedure bridging anticoagulation. INTERVENTION: After warfarin therapy was discontinued, participants were randomly assigned to either 3 daily doses of tinzaparin (175 IU/kg) or dalteparin (200 IU/kg), with 2 intervening HD treatments between the first dose of study drug and their procedure. OUTCOMES: The primary outcome was predialysis anti-Xa levels 20 to 24 hours after the third LMWH dose (therapeutic target, <0.2 IU/mL). Secondary outcomes included thromboembolic events and major bleeding. RESULTS: Of 29 eligible and consenting patients, 17 patients received tinzaparin and 12 patients received dalteparin. Mean predialysis anti-Xa level 20-24 hours after the third LMWH dose was 0.37 ± 0.23 (SD) IU/mL for tinzaparin and 0.62 ± 0.41 IU/mL for dalteparin (P = 0.1), indicating clinically important accumulation for both drugs. No invasive procedures were canceled due to study drug accumulation. 4 patients experienced serious adverse events (1 major bleed after traumatic arteriovenous fistula puncture in the tinzaparin arm, 2 non-ST-elevation myocardial infarctions [1 in each group], and 1 upper-extremity deep venous thrombosis [dalteparin group]). LIMITATIONS: Small sample size. CONCLUSIONS: Dalteparin and tinzaparin significantly accumulate in HD patients at therapeutic doses. "Bridging therapy" with LMWHs at therapeutic doses in HD patients who require temporary interruption of warfarin therapy has the potential for complications and is of uncertain benefit. Other anticoagulation strategies, including no bridging therapy or intravenous heparin, need comparative evaluation in this unique patient population.

New directions in toxicity testing.

In 2007, the U.S. National Research Council (NRC) published a groundbreaking report entitled Toxicity Testing in the 21st Century: A Vision and a Strategy. The purpose of this report was to develop a long-range strategic plan to update and advance the way environmental agents are tested for toxicity. The vision focused on the identification of critical perturbations of toxicity pathways that lead to adverse human health outcomes using modern scientific tools and technologies. This review describes how emerging scientific methods will move the NRC vision forward and improve the manner in which the potential health risks associated with exposure to environmental agents are assessed. The new paradigm for toxicity testing is compatible with the widely used four-stage risk assessment framework originally proposed by the NRC in 1983 in the so-called Red Book. The Nrf2 antioxidant pathway provides a detailed example of how relevant pathway perturbations will be identified within the context of the new NRC vision for the future of toxicity testing. The implications of the NRC vision for toxicity testing for regulatory risk assessment are also discussed.

The future of toxicity testing.

In 2007, the U.S. National Research Council (NRC) released a report, "Toxicity Testing in the 21st Century: A Vision and a Strategy," that proposes a paradigm shift for toxicity testing of environmental agents. The vision is based on the notion that exposure to environmental agents leads to adverse health outcomes through the perturbation of toxicity pathways that are operative in humans. Implementation of the NRC vision will involve a fundamental change in the assessment of toxicity of environmental agents, moving away from adverse health outcomes observed in experimental animals to the identification of critical perturbations of toxicity pathways. Pathway perturbations will be identified using in vitro assays and quantified for dose response using methods in computational toxicology and other recent scientific advances in basic biology. Implementation of the NRC vision will require a major research effort, not unlike that required to successfully map the human genome, extending over 10 to 20 years, involving the broad scientific community to map important toxicity pathways operative in humans. This article provides an overview of the scientific tools and technologies that will form the core of the NRC vision for toxicity testing. Of particular importance will be the development of rapidly performed in vitro screening assays using human cells and cell lines or human tissue surrogates to efficiently identify environmental agents producing critical pathway perturbations. In addition to the overview of the NRC vision, this study documents the reaction by a number of stakeholder groups since 2007, including the scientific, risk assessment, regulatory, and animal welfare communities.